Where Now For Hpc?

[D179]

Ok, well I am looking at property at the moment, not because I believe prices are at the bottom, the missus wants to settle and thats it.

Having been speaking with EA's this week, some I know quite well, others I don't, much has been discussed. Its a mix of opinions, some say they think we are at bottom, simply because lack of stock is keeping a level of demand to stablise prices, which to be honest is roughly what I see happening. Some have also acknowledged that they are not completely sure what will happen, but at the moment the inital dust seems to have settled. Others think prices are gonna go back up , yawn.

Also met with a friend who is an IFA, to go through some figures. He has explained that generally lenders are at 3.5 joint, some a little higher. Also that rates have gone up. I think what was is noticable is there definately has been a sea change on the level they will lend, I know because I went through this beginning of last year with then lenders and even then the amount they would lend was higher than it is now.

it still seems to me that there is a significant gulf in what is affordable up and down the 'ladder' and what is avialable. Prices should come down further, it makes sense, but it seems that there are not enough forced sellers to get the re-adjustment required. If they are not forced to sell ,then maybe prices can be 'held'.

Possibly there are now two scenarios

- Prices may have or are near to stabalising, and if exisitng mortgage holders have cheap deals, govt support etc, maybe prices may stay at the stablised level for a significant number of years, until the economy and eaarnings etc frees up the system.

-Those that have kept the wolf from the door up to know, maybe on their last legs and those that took two year fixed rates at the peak of 2007, may become forced sellers, and the buy to let to buy brigade may decide to go on the market, leading to large influx of property and price decreases.

i know its been debated loads, but just fancied a chat!

[Bearback Mountain]

Ok, well I am looking at property at the moment, not because I believe prices are at the bottom, the missus wants to settle and thats it.

Having been speaking with EA's this week, some I know quite well, others I don't, much has been discussed. Its a mix of opinions, some say they think we are at bottom, simply because lack of stock is keeping a level of demand to stablise prices, which to be honest is roughly what I see happening. Some have also acknowledged that they are not completely sure what will happen, but at the moment the inital dust seems to have settled. Others think prices are gonna go back up , yawn.

Also met with a friend who is an IFA, to go through some figures. He has explained that generally lenders are at 3.5 joint, some a little higher. Also that rates have gone up. I think what was is noticable is there definately has been a sea change on the level they will lend, I know because I went through this beginning of last year with then lenders and even then the amount they would lend was higher than it is now.

it still seems to me that there is a significant gulf in what is affordable up and down the 'ladder' and what is avialable. Prices should come down further, it makes sense, but it seems that there are not enough forced sellers to get the re-adjustment required. If they are not forced to sell ,then maybe prices can be 'held'.

Possibly there are now two scenarios

- Prices may have or are near to stabalising, and if exisitng mortgage holders have cheap deals, govt support etc, maybe prices may stay at the stablised level for a significant number of years, until the economy and eaarnings etc frees up the system.

-Those that have kept the wolf from the door up to know, maybe on their last legs and those that took two year fixed rates at the peak of 2007, may become forced sellers, and the buy to let to buy brigade may decide to go on the market, leading to large influx of property and price decreases.

i know its been debated loads, but just fancied a chat!

Yeah, and this is with the last of the "big deposit" people who believe they have got bargain.

What happens when the cash rich are spent up on property and unemployment keeps rising....... Well, you know the rest. 2nd wave down.

[bomberbrown]

Ok, well I am looking at property at the moment, not because I believe prices are at the bottom, the missus wants to settle and thats it.

You say that as though renting and settling down are mutually exclusive.

One of the many reasons were in this bloody mess.

[BecksMyCat]

Looking at the wider economy, it looks like the UK, and much of the world, will have very limited growth in 2010. Employment is going to keep going up.

So I think there is going to continue to be downward pressure on house prices. It might not be as spectacular as we have seen, but they will keep decreasing. It will take quite some time for the ecomony to recover, I think we are looking at a long dragged out affair now.

[D179]

You say that as though renting and settling down are mutually exclusive.

One of the many reasons were in this bloody mess.

Hold on, as we know when renting, it cant be laid out, decorated, etc, with all of your stuff that goes with having a family. I agree, in the current market, if greater security of tenure was available, for nice long LH properties, it would be an option.

Also, fortunately, life is much more than saving as much money as possible on a house purchase, is it not???

Plus one last thing, when you are a married couple its give and take, we sold up moved in to rented, she went along with that, she now wants to move on. I cant stomp my feet.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Prices have stabilised with low supply and low demand.

Unemployment is now increasing at a record rate.

2+2=?

VMR.

[D179]

Prices have stabilised with low supply and low demand.

Unemployment is now increasing at a record rate.

2+2=?

VMR.

Yeah I have witnessed a lot of people close to me over the last few weeks either being made reduntant or being notified that it may happen.

[Lepista]

Hold on, as we know when renting, it cant be laid out, decorated, etc, with all of your stuff that goes with having a family. I agree, in the current market, if greater security of tenure was available, for nice long LH properties, it would be an option.

Of course it can. I usually just ask out of politeness. I've had landlords that don't want the place altered, but usually, as long as you are reasonable, and tell them what you want to do, then they are fine with it.

I think the rule is that whilst you are renting the place, it is your home, and therefore you can legally do anything you like to it that does not structurally change the building. I'm not sure you even have to redecorate it to the original appearance when you leave. I'll try and find some info on it for a linky... (unless someone beats me to it)

[kara gee]

You say that as though renting and settling down are mutually exclusive.

One of the many reasons were in this bloody mess.

In all fairness to the OP and his other half, Privately renting doesn't allow you to settle down. I STRed in dec 07, and have since had to move twice because the LL on both occasions put their house up for sale. I have a toddler and another due any day and have to move again at the end of August. The house hasn't sold, but It's annoying having strangers walking round your house, and makes you feel insecure because it 'might' sell.

Don't get me wrong, even this wouldn;t make me jump into buying something now, but I don't feel that renting (private) is not conducive to feeling settled. (And neither is a hefty mortgage).

Edited July 15, 2009 by kara gee

[Fairies Wear Boots]

Prices have stabilised with low supply and low demand.

Unemployment is now increasing at a record rate.

2+2=?

VMR.

The next leg on down is going to be brutal. Especially if interest rates go up too. My take on where now for HPC, is they've plugged all the holes with their fingers and have now run out of fingers. And more holes are continuing to appear.

Fair play if you couldn't spot the bubble in 2007, but any HPCer asking the general direction of house prices over the next three years should get a grip.

My wife and I are in rented at present and expecting our first child in six weeks. I've no problem with that. It bugs me that if I do the garden up, I'll be moving in two to three years time. No point in decorating, although the wife suggested it. (Sod doing up my landlady's place). I wouldn't say it's about saving money. The more house prices come down, the bigger my purchase will be. We nearly bought in 2007. I think about what we made an offer on and think, Hallelujah I didn't buy that house. I can now buy all the extra things we wanted for the same price.

[babesagainstmachines]

Plus one last thing, when you are a married couple its give and take, we sold up moved in to rented, she went along with that, she now wants to move on. I cant stomp my feet.

You did that and went through the hassle of moving... only to give in at a miserly 20% drop. You are mental.

[D179]

To add, i am looking, I may not buy for some time yet, we may not see something that we want, and so in-evitably i cant say "do you think we can hold off another year"...

[flatnose]

In all fairness to the OP and his other half, Privately renting doesn't allow you to settle down. I STRed in dec 07, and have since had to move twice because the LL on both occasions put their house up for sale. I have a toddler and another due any day and have to move again at the end of August. The house hasn't sold, but It's annoying having strangers walking round your house, and makes you feel insecure because it 'might' sell.

Don't get me wrong, even this wouldn;t make me jump into buying something now, but I don't feel that renting (private) is not conducive to feeling settled. (And neither is a hefty mortgage).

I can tell a different story...depends how savvy you are in choosing your LL. Minimise the risk that they are BTLetters. Farmers tend to be good as they hate to lose their land/property etc.

[D179]

You did that and went through the hassle of moving... only to give in at a miserly 20% drop. You are mental.

Yeah I must just be mental to allow the major part of my life have any say in the decisions we make...

[Fairies Wear Boots]

In all fairness to the OP and his other half, Privately renting doesn't allow you to settle down. I STRed in dec 07, and have since had to move twice because the LL on both occasions put their house up for sale. I have a toddler and another due any day and have to move again at the end of August. The house hasn't sold, but It's annoying having strangers walking round your house, and makes you feel insecure because it 'might' sell.

Don't get me wrong, even this wouldn;t make me jump into buying something now, but I don't feel that renting (private) is not conducive to feeling settled. (And neither is a hefty mortgage).

We've just moved rental properties through choice, (for more space). It was a right pain in the back side.

However, haven't you just been unlucky? If our Landlady decided to sell up, I might be tempted to get professional movers shift the whole lot and unpack it, and treat the expense as "chicken feed" compared to how much I expect to save on the first house purchase.

[Lander]

Don't buy now, this monster recession is only just gathering momentum. You'll be more secure renting a house for the time being.

[Fairies Wear Boots]

Yeah I must just be mental to allow the major part of my life have any say in the decisions we make...

I just told mine in 2007 that if we ended up buying a house and they fell a shedload and we were stuck paying a big mortgage on a shity place I'd be grumpy for 25 years!

Now they are falling, can't you convince her that waiting three years means a much nicer place?

As you say, life isn't all about money. If you want to buy a place, keep your missus happy, do some decorating then go for it.

But as for suggesting that the market might stabilise around about here, umm well, the economy is like, um well, fooked.

[geoffk]

Yeah I have witnessed a lot of people close to me over the last few weeks either being made reduntant or being notified that it may happen.

does that not sound bloody big alarm bells in your head...it should..

[geoffk]

Yeah I have witnessed a lot of people close to me over the last few weeks either being made reduntant or being notified that it may happen.

does that not sound bloody big alarm bells in your head...it should..

[D179]

I just told mine in 2007 that if we ended up buying a house and they fell a shedload and we were stuck paying a big mortgage on a shity place I'd be grumpy for 25 years!

Now they are falling, can't you convince her that waiting three years means a much nicer place?

As you say, life isn't all about money. If you want to buy a place, keep your missus happy, do some decorating then go for it.

But as for suggesting that the market might stabilise around about here, umm well, the economy is like, um well, fooked.

I think probably in fairness that the way my original post was structured may have read that I am more swung towards it stabalising. I am not, I have seen it at the moment. I am simply building on what other possible VI etc have said about the market. I have also built in the other scenario.

I did also suggest that I explect prices to go down further. I totally agree re the ecomomy, Jobs etc...

Regarding convincing her, I am not sure. She went from moving about a bit when she was younger, to then buying a place that she thought we would settle down in, to me selling it and moving back into something she doesnt want to stay in.... So i cant say I blame her!

[geoffk]

bloody computers

[xux42]

IRegarding convincing her, I am not sure. She went from moving about a bit when she was younger, to then buying a place that she thought we would settle down in, to me selling it and moving back into something she doesnt want to stay in.... So i cant say I blame her!

How long you been married?

Just play along with it, acting all enthusiastic. There are a 101 ways to 'reluctantly' reject a property. If she gets heavy make an offer on a stupidly over priced place and apply for a 90% mortgage (fee free naturally). It will fall through on the surveyor's valuation.

Its vital that you maintain the impression that you are even more devastated than her that things are going awry.

I've fended off buying a 4x4 for mrs xux for 10 months now using similar techniques.

[VacantPossession]

I think the flaw in the OP's opening gambit is consulting EA's in the first place. An EA is there to SELL you something, therefore any "advice" he gives is by definition not reliable. I would never, ever, consult an EA about anything to do with property, apart from using them if necessary to visit a prospective house - as long as they kept their mouth shut unless invited to talk.

Sounds a bit harsh I know, but after many years of EA bulls()it I just cannot stand the patter any longer. The best way to overcome this is to keep them quiet so they don't pollute your mind with VI nonsense. I apply the same principle to car dealers. It really does make for a better quality of life.

[D179]

I think the flaw in the OP's opening gambit is consulting EA's in the first place. An EA is there to SELL you something, therefore any "advice" he gives is by definition not reliable. I would never, ever, consult an EA about anything to do with property, apart from using them if necessary to visit a prospective house - as long as they kept their mouth shut unless invited to talk.

Sounds a bit harsh I know, but after many years of EA bulls()it I just cannot stand the patter any longer. The best way to overcome this is to keep them quiet so they don't pollute your mind with VI nonsense. I apply the same principle to car dealers. It really does make for a better quality of life.

Ahh, yes, well because some of them know me, they feel compelled to tell me whats happening! I dont believe the prices going up shiz, but I have to look at relatively small number of properties coming on (akthiugh this does seem to have increased) vs price and i have just noticed a bit of 'Stabilisation'. Thats all.

i did view a place that had been solfd last year, and back on one year and one month later, and I told the agent it was worth no more than x (around 30% off peak) and for him to call me if his vendor needed to sell. So I wouldnt say that i hang on every word they utter.

[MrB]

In all fairness to the OP and his other half, Privately renting doesn't allow you to settle down. I STRed in dec 07, and have since had to move twice because the LL on both occasions put their house up for sale. I have a toddler and another due any day and have to move again at the end of August. The house hasn't sold, but It's annoying having strangers walking round your house, and makes you feel insecure because it 'might' sell.

Don't get me wrong, even this wouldn;t make me jump into buying something now, but I don't feel that renting (private) is not conducive to feeling settled. (And neither is a hefty mortgage).

Didn't think they were allowed to do that? On another thread the advice was that this isn't allowed.

Been at my place for 2.5 years, happily, nice house, we even borrow next doors cat sometimes (it now gets confused an shits on its own drive).