GBdamo Posted February 19, 2009 Share Posted February 19, 2009 (edited) Firstly this is not a denialist thread but, with talk of 20-30% drops in some areas I thought I'd post what the Land Registry data shows for the area around where I live. The SP8 post code covers an area of about 5 miles2 centred on the town of Gillingham which is by far the largest town in that area. All other properties are either in small villages, farms or remote homes. With the exception of Gillingham the area is quite nice, Gillingham as I've posted elsewhere is a bit of a housing policy dumping ground full of new estates and not much else. Since the Land Registry started posting their data online there have been in excess of 4000 sales averaging just under 500 per year. So there are quite a few data points behind the graphs below. So enjoy your 20-30% drops all I get is a measly 7%....For now Edited February 19, 2009 by GBdamo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted February 19, 2009 Share Posted February 19, 2009 Firstly this is not a denialist thread but, with talk of 20-30% drops in some areas I thought I'd post what the Land Registry data shows for the area around where I live. The SP8 post code covers an area of about 5 miles2 centred on the town of Gillingham which is by far the largest town in that area. All other properties are either in small villages, farms or remote homes. With the exception of Gillingham the area is quite nice, Gillingham as I've posted elsewhere is a bit of a housing policy dumping ground full of new estates and not much else. Since the Land Registry started posting their data online there have been in excess of 4000 sales averaging just under 500 per year. So there are quite a few data points behind the graphs below. So enjoy your 20-30% drops all I get is a measly 7%....For now I'm actually looking in the area currently and have sen massive drops in and around Gillingham; one house inMere has come down from 600 to 450 in a matter of months; I believe the ownwer is in trouble, so that hasn't helped, but all other properties we've looked at, £500k-£750k have all expressed a willingness to take realistic offers. I think it is because the area is unrealistically priced for what is in the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted February 19, 2009 Author Share Posted February 19, 2009 I'm actually looking in the area currently and have sen massive drops in and around Gillingham; one house inMere has come down from 600 to 450 in a matter of months; I believe the ownwer is in trouble, so that hasn't helped, but all other properties we've looked at, £500k-£750k have all expressed a willingness to take realistic offers. I think it is because the area is unrealistically priced for what is in the area. You've hit the nail on the head there. As soon property prices in and around London start to fall and people see it as more economically sensible to move closer to London this area will crash big time. There is quite a lot of commuting goes on from Gillingham as it's on the Waterloo line. There are drops on Rightmove but these do not seem to have filtered through yet. Many sold STCs are coming back onto the market. Many have been removed and put up for rent, resulting in a 10% drop in rents. Looking at the latest complete month, November, the spread in property types sold was quite reasonable so there were no huge prices skewing the data. There was however only 22 sales which is not a lot. Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted February 19, 2009 Share Posted February 19, 2009 You've hit the nail on the head there. As soon property prices in and around London start to fall and people see it as more economically sensible to move closer to London this area will crash big time. There is quite a lot of commuting goes on from Gillingham as it's on the Waterloo line. There are drops on Rightmove but these do not seem to have filtered through yet. Many sold STCs are coming back onto the market. Many have been removed and put up for rent, resulting in a 10% drop in rents. Looking at the latest complete month, November, the spread in property types sold was quite reasonable so there were no huge prices skewing the data. There was however only 22 sales which is not a lot. Damo Hey Damo, we've been looking since November and seen quite surprising drops in prices and also, advice from local agents. They want sales. Wkye Road has one house,a doer upper of note, down from 499 to 425 and I think we could pick it up for 350 Wife has her eyes on one with Swimming pool currently at 775, but bene on the market a while so we think it could go as low as 600 - 650 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted February 19, 2009 Author Share Posted February 19, 2009 Hey Damo,we've been looking since November and seen quite surprising drops in prices and also, advice from local agents. They want sales. Wkye Road has one house,a doer upper of note, down from 499 to 425 and I think we could pick it up for 350 Wife has her eyes on one with Swimming pool currently at 775, but bene on the market a while so we think it could go as low as 600 - 650 Not really in my league, looking more sub £200k, There are some big drops at the top end but , again, not many sales. Who knows where the bottom is around here. There are some lovely houses though, is the one your wife likes This One? Nice pad, I'd have to do a bank job to get one of those Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 Not really in my league, looking more sub £200k, There are some big drops at the top end but , again, not many sales.Who knows where the bottom is around here. There are some lovely houses though, is the one your wife likes this one Nice pad, would hope that gets to 600-650 before I climb on board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 link doesnt work. Try again. Im impressed with the one GBdamo posted though. Don't think you would get anything like that at that price in West Dorset ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted February 21, 2009 Author Share Posted February 21, 2009 Must be this one, two bank jobs then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted February 22, 2009 Share Posted February 22, 2009 Must be this one, two bank jobs then That's the boy; I am hoping wither the wife see's sense or theprice 'adjusts' some this sprinmg. otherwise I might have the start planning that other 'job' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Just been emailed a drop in price of a farmhouse I was interested in; lots of land and stables; was £699,950, now £580k Very interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1 Such small sales volume in SP8 suggests that the LR figures are a poor reflection as to what is going on. The median figures show the real change! Asking prices show largest reductions in 1 and 2 bedroom properties so far. http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices...&lastyear=1 These guys need to sell: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=715735662 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1Such small sales volume in SP8 suggests that the LR figures are a poor reflection as to what is going on. The median figures show the real change! Asking prices show largest reductions in 1 and 2 bedroom properties so far. http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices...&lastyear=1 These guys need to sell: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=715735662 we've seen some spectacular falls in 500+ properties. We're waiting on one property to come down and we're of in a flash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1Such small sales volume in SP8 suggests that the LR figures are a poor reflection as to what is going on. The median figures show the real change! Asking prices show largest reductions in 1 and 2 bedroom properties so far. http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices...&lastyear=1 These guys need to sell: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=715735662 Yep, wouldn't pay half that for some legoland estate house with no garden. I don't need the rooms and would much rather have the land - need to grow veg. Think I know the guy who's paying the bank to live there, nice guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 we've seen some spectacular falls in 500+ properties. We're waiting on one property to come down and we're of in a flash best of luck Hairy, invite me round for a swim if all goes well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Just been emailed a drop in price of a farmhouse I was interested in; lots of land and stables; was £699,950, now £580kVery interesting... Linky please, we're not shy on this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 best of luck Hairy, invite me round for a swim if all goes well. Welcome to a swim anytime, as long as I get it; that ones been dropped from 850k mind! Here's a lik to that Farmhouse: Farmhouse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benpointer Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 We're also looking at SP8 as cash buyers (hope there's not too many of us!). We're looking in the £300 -£400k region. I am thinking of offering ad maybe 20% under asking prices now if we see something we like as an alternative to waiting til later in the year. Anyone got any thoughts or advice. I am assuming EAs may not be too pleased but am I right in thinking they are obliged to put any offer to the vendors? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 We're also looking at SP8 as cash buyers (hope there's not too many of us!). We're looking in the £300 -£400k region. I am thinking of offering ad maybe 20% under asking prices now if we see something we like as an alternative to waiting til later in the year. Anyone got any thoughts or advice. I am assuming EAs may not be too pleased but am I right in thinking they are obliged to put any offer to the vendors? Welcome on board Ben, Nice price bracket to be looking at. I'm starting to see some real movement (downwards) in prices over 250K. Or maybe the falls just look larger. Are you moving into the area or moving within the area? IMO 20% off is the maximum you should be offering, some would say 20% should be the maximum you offer full stop. As with anything you need to do some research on the area and see what is still priced at peak, and as such still massively over valued, and what is priced at, perceived, pressent market value. I'd be offering 20% off the latter and 30-40% off the former. EAs do have to pass on all offers unless specifically instucted by the vendor to only let them know if the offer is over X. Best of luck with your search, and remember a house is for life not just for MEW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benpointer Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Welcome on board Ben,Nice price bracket to be looking at. I'm starting to see some real movement (downwards) in prices over 250K. Or maybe the falls just look larger. Are you moving into the area or moving within the area? IMO 20% off is the maximum you should be offering, some would say 20% should be the maximum you offer full stop. As with anything you need to do some research on the area and see what is still priced at peak, and as such still massively over valued, and what is priced at, perceived, pressent market value. I'd be offering 20% off the latter and 30-40% off the former. EAs do have to pass on all offers unless specifically instucted by the vendor to only let them know if the offer is over X. Best of luck with your search, and remember a house is for life not just for MEW Thanks GBdamo. We're moving into the area - my wife's elderly parents live in Wincanton and she wants to be closer. We sold our house in Yorkshire in October within a week of putting it on the market - we took a decision to knock 20% off the price we thought it was worth in 2007. Neighbours thought we were crazy but we sold straightaway and are in a strong position now - lots of other house in the village still for sale. Moving from a 4 bed detached with a big garden to a 2 bed flat temporarily is not much fun though! - hopefully it will be worth it in the long run. It was always our intention to move to SW eventually - we thought we would be seriously downsizing but now maybe not... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hairy Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Thanks GBdamo. We're moving into the area - my wife's elderly parents live in Wincanton and she wants to be closer. We sold our house in Yorkshire in October within a week of putting it on the market - we took a decision to knock 20% off the price we thought it was worth in 2007. Neighbours thought we were crazy but we sold straightaway and are in a strong position now - lots of other house in the village still for sale. Moving from a 4 bed detached with a big garden to a 2 bed flat temporarily is not much fun though! - hopefully it will be worth it in the long run. It was always our intention to move to SW eventually - we thought we would be seriously downsizing but now maybe not... I use rightmove and registered with the local EA's. They've been surprisingly candid about the market in the area. One house, in Mere, had been reduced from 600-550 and when I said I didn't want to offer on it as I would want to take a further 100k out of it they said, I'd urge you to put that offer forward.... For your budget (my wife will kill me for this) there's a house on Wyke road up at £425 down from £495 which looks exceptional value for money if you can get a further 10-15% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Thanks GBdamo. We're moving into the area - my wife's elderly parents live in Wincanton and she wants to be closer. We sold our house in Yorkshire in October within a week of putting it on the market - we took a decision to knock 20% off the price we thought it was worth in 2007. Neighbours thought we were crazy but we sold straightaway and are in a strong position now - lots of other house in the village still for sale. Moving from a 4 bed detached with a big garden to a 2 bed flat temporarily is not much fun though! - hopefully it will be worth it in the long run. It was always our intention to move to SW eventually - we thought we would be seriously downsizing but now maybe not... Ben, Sound like you've made all the right moves. A year or so of relative hardship in a two bed flat will pay dividends. Hairy is keeping tabs on houses around your bracket also and spots all the big reductions. I'm actually starting to feel optimistic as there are clear signs now that falls are picking up pace. Best of luck. Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norma Lamont Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 From what I know of the area, in the nicer spots around Gillingham and Shaftesbury there are lots of retirees/near-retirees who are either mortgage-free or tend to have very low mortgages. These people stay put for decades and have little incentive to move, so any properties coming on the market would most likely be for estate sales. Lots of growth within Gillingham itself in the last 10 years - I would expect quite a lot of the high density new builds to come on the market. Many of these were built on a flood plain and I think it is in these areas where the 'for sale' offerings will be concentrated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBdamo Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 (edited) From what I know of the area, in the nicer spots around Gillingham and Shaftesbury there are lots of retirees/near-retirees who are either mortgage-free or tend to have very low mortgages. These people stay put for decades and have little incentive to move, so any properties coming on the market would most likely be for estate sales.Lots of growth within Gillingham itself in the last 10 years - I would expect quite a lot of the high density new builds to come on the market. Many of these were built on a flood plain and I think it is in these areas where the 'for sale' offerings will be concentrated. Fair shout Norma. You should see the coffin dodgers in Waitrose during the day, bunch of sour face miserable old sods to a one. I moved into this area in 2001 and even then I thought the prices were insane. I rented a one bed flat for six months until they sold it for £76,000. Back then I could have easily afforded that but with a new job in a new area I was a bit slow to commit. As I've climbed the greasy pole at work every years pay rise was eclipsed by HPI. By 2007 I had doubled my earnings and could still only, comfortably, afford a one bed flat which by then were going for £130,000, at a push a two bed house or flat for about £160,000. Now that things are turning, and they are at the top end, I'm making damn sure I'm in a position to take full advantage. As for flood plane check these out, only one insurance company will touch them as they are 20 yards away from the river behind a ten foot earth bank. The field you see in the pictures floods 3-4 times a year and when we had the recent snow the water was lapping at the top of the bank. House 1 - £215,000 House 2 - £197,000 House 3 - £189,000 12% difference already between prices on pretty much identical houses. And the best for last – House 4 - £225,000 Again identical, alright It's got different colour paint. 16% delusion factor on this one. And I honestly believe House three to be £40,000 over valued, but then I would. Damo Edit to highlight links Edited March 6, 2009 by GBdamo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.