Australia Faces Its Demons

[Elizabeth]

It's a bit cold for naked ADSL over here, I tend to wear a dressing gown and socks.

Well I'm quite modest too, so I like to put a dressing gown on my computer before I use it and a sock on my broadband stick.

[Peter Hun]

What got up your nose today? After 12 years in the UK, I am back in Australia, and yes I am lovin' it. The wages aren't any more shite than British wages (and with the exchange rate dropped they are just about the same). The property prices aren't as high as the British ones unless you insist on living on the North Shore in Sydney, or one of the very trendy suburbs (£320K around here equates to about £160, for a bungalow with a decent backyard with a 10 minute walk to the shops - I have seen shitty little terraces on a main road in the worst suburbs going for more than that in the UK). The food actually tastes like something (well its a matter of taste, but ours doesn't travel as far) and despite the price rises, it is cheaper. Having lived in both places recently I can guarantee that. My idea of an outrageous rent for a 2-3 bedroom bungalow with a backyard is around £160 a week where I live (or about £640 a month). I was paying £565 for a very ordinary 1 bedroom flat in suburban England. The alternative at the time was £440 for a mould infested hole.

But these are all irrelevant issues. What it comes down to is what we like. I like the big blue sunny skies of Australia better (and a culture of directness - I just love that. I also love the fact that taxpayers expect their tax to pay for something in Australia and governments know it and care - Australian governments are actually scared of voters).

I guess you just like England better. That's fine.

PS: I didn't say the broadband was unlimited for �4.50, its not. Its a full user pays system and for me, using the internet frequently and every day I use about 80Megs. Not Gigs. Megs. its 1.5c a meg and a $5 service fee. My preference if for full user pays because in England I was paying �20 a month for unlimited broadband but had no idea how much I was using and had no way of estimating it, and when the whole thing becomes transparent, clearly didn't need it! But I was told this was a great thing and I must be a big user. Its the whole smoke and mirrors of convincing people they need what they don't and then forcing them to pay it, and having no truly competitive options that let me only pay for what I use. I like transparency.

I also never said Australia invented capitalism. I simply said that we operate it. The British are so tied up in corporate cartels, and the cartels are so close to government that there is no space for genuine competition. Just a cacophany of minor differences to hide the fundamental sameness of products.

Why is that Australians spend some much time trying to justify why they are living there? Nobody give a ****** about Australia but Australians need to be constantly told that living there is so much better than else where. You comment about Aus being a free market with competitive business is laughable, its backward, inward looking country that produces nothing that wouldn't exist if every Australian dropped dead today.

Personally I thing Australians are full of shit and there is nothing whatsoever I can get there that I can't get at home in the EU.

Before you compare Autralia with the UK, why not compare UK with a very tiny part of Australia, like Sydney, becuase UK is only a small part of the EU. I can get a job and live in a cheap house in southern Italy - great all round weather, extremely cheap housing and food and be back in civilisation in a few hours (impossible in Aus without an 24hr flight ). There are many places I could go to in the EU and have cheap housing, food, and great culture. I'm buying a farm near (3omin) Krakow for £25K with 5 acres of land food prices are half the UK, and Krakow has more culture and history in its main square that the entire continent of Australia

You were paying £20 (why? its available from £5.99, phone calls, and line rental bundles) on an unlimited service that you couldn't measure your usage!!! Sorry, stonking ignorance is no explanation or justification. There are DOZENS of similar PAYG services for data on fixed and land lines in the UK. For instance 1Gb a month will cost £10 per month with 3G. I pay £4.50 with Orange for unlimited (0.5gb fair use I think). The UK has one of the most competitive ADSL markets in the world.

[Elizabeth]

Why is that Australians spend some much time trying to justify why they are living there? Nobody give a ****** about Australia but Australians need to be constantly told that living there is so much better than else where. You comment about Aus being a free market with competitive business is laughable, its backward, inward looking country that produces nothing that wouldn't exist if every Australian dropped dead today.

Personally I thing Australians are full of shit and there is nothing whatsoever I can get there that I can't get at home in the EU.

Before you compare Autralia with the UK, why not compare UK with a very tiny part of Australia, like Sydney, becuase UK is only a small part of the EU. I can get a job and live in a cheap house in southern Italy - great all round weather, extremely cheap housing and food and be back in civilisation in a few hours (impossible in Aus without an 24hr flight ). There are many places I could go to in the EU and have cheap housing, food, and great culture. I'm buying a farm near (3omin) Krakow for £25K with 5 acres of land food prices are half the UK, and Krakow has more culture and history in its main square that the entire continent of Australia

You were paying £20 (why? its available from £5.99, phone calls, and line rental bundles) on an unlimited service that you couldn't measure your usage!!! Sorry, stonking ignorance is no explanation or justification. There are DOZENS of similar PAYG services for data on fixed and land lines in the UK. For instance 1Gb a month will cost £10 per month with 3G. I pay £4.50 with Orange for unlimited (0.5gb fair use I think). The UK has one of the most competitive ADSL markets in the world.

Absolutely. No worries. I totally agree. Your obviously very angry about this. I don't understand but I realise that I don't need to understand. As for culture, we have more culture in our little fingers than you have on an entire island... but then that is just a personal opinion born of a belief that culture is embodied in the person not the monument and experience. Gotta say, I think Berlin is completely amazing. I think that Skye is amazing. I think that Rome is amazing and Barcelona is amazing. ... I thought Landsend was amazing till someone put a fast food joint on it. Does that explain why I am less than overawed with Britain.

[Hip to be bear]

Krakow most definetly would have more european culture than Australia but it would not compare on aboriginal culture or the dreamtime not that I am comparing.

Tasmania had great aboriginal culture until your early Australians purged them from the island's shores!!!

Blame us Brits for that one if you like... I expect you will......

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

Tasmania had great aboriginal culture until your early Australians purged them from the island's shores!!!

Blame us Brits for that one if you like... I expect you will......

The Tasmanian Aborigines were wiped out by the British in the early 19th Century during the Black War. Having said that, the aborigines on the mainland were generally treated well by the British, and their treatment was considerably worse under the rule of the Australians post-federation.

[roman holiday]

The estemeed professor however is the one with the predictions that are outside of the box, not me. I am stuck in the safety and predictability of using the past to predict the future, completely boring I know, doesn't get headlines either.

Just a sec....wasn't that what the geeky quants with their mathematical models were doing on Wall Street... just before they got wiped out?

[Peter Hun]

Absolutely. No worries. I totally agree. Your obviously very angry about this. I don't understand but I realise that I don't need to understand. ..<crap cut>.. Does that explain why I am less than overawed with Britain.

Obviously you do have a big hang up about it, enough to come to a UK house price crash web site and moan about Britain and how wonderful Australia is with its 70p shampoo.

Which again brings up my point that Australian's seem obsessed about persuading themselves that moving to Australia was a good idea. If that is really the case, why go on about it all the time?

[Elizabeth]

Obviously you do have a big hang up about it, enough to come to a UK house price crash web site and moan about Britain and how wonderful Australia is with its 70p shampoo.

Which again brings up my point that Australian's seem obsessed about persuading themselves that moving to Australia was a good idea. If that is really the case, why go on about it all the time?

Oh dear me. You really have got your knickers in a twist. Now Peter old son, you will note that I have been on this site (while living through shitty shared housing during the rental crisis in London and the housing price rise crisis accross the UK) since 2004. I found it in 2004 because I was completely depressed about my prospects of never having a home of my own and felt like I was the only one in the world that thought there had to be a crash. So I was sitting in an internet cafe near London Bridge and in a moment of abject despondency typed "house price crash" into the navigation bar. The rest is a 5 year history of making comments and jokes and generally exchanging ideas on this site. It has been great. So you will see I am a veteran of this site, and a UK veteran at that. Where better to talk about 70p shampoo? I am also quite well known here, having spat my dummy on more than one occassion, and a lot of people know a lot more about me than you, and probably have a lot more to be offended about, but haven't taken offence. They are the beauty and joy of Britain. I will note that you are a bit of a Johnny come lately, only having joined when the shite started hitting the fan in 2008. And for a relative newbie I feel you are judging me harshly. Not everyone gets upset when I say things like 'I really like my life and where I am at the moment'. But then most of the regulars know that life wasn't nearly so nice until about 3 months ago, and they can generally take good cheer in my success, as I would take good cheer in the happiness of anyone else who reached out and got the things that they want. I look forward to the day when all of us housing bears are saying 'I just bought my house... and I can afford it on a 3.5x my income morgage'. I reckon that is the thing that sets some human beings apart as special. Being able to cheer that other people are cheerful rather than feeling resentful and angry because they have failed in the cheerfulness competition.

You will also notice that there are posters from all over the place as well. It truly is an international site. And given its changes, the team, the mods that run it, and the long time posters need to be congratulated. We put up with an awful phaze where every second posting was made by a housing boom cheerleading Troll. We had a phaze where the membership was being poached by a competitor site that was angry and wanted their own site. But it has prevailed, even into the bust when HousePriceCrash is no longer a marginal view. It has been an inspiration to me and I love the people that have offered me insight on a huge range of issues from science, to economics to some of the funniest commentaries on life I have ever seen. And while amusing and entertaining, it also saved my pretty (not so) little bottom from the UK housing market over the past 5 years.

On what seems to have evolved into an intense personal disagreement , not everyone is so strung up with Britain v Australia v the Black Sea. I am not. I quite like the world. For living in, I like Sydney best, but that is mostly because I generally don't have to bother to talk to people from Melbourne... in fact bizarrely this is starting to sound like a Melbourne v Sydney gripe where the Melbournians get all upset because Sydney people don't really care whether Melbourne is better (or for that matter the Prague with its monuments, Paris with its elegance (I almost got mugged in Paris, so I am not real sure about that place) or for that matter the Black Sea with its horrific job prospects and language barrier for 25 grand) ... and for heavens sake have a good laugh. Get a sense of humour mate. You really need one.

Edited July 25, 2009 by Elizabeth

[athe]

...We put up with an awful phaze where every second posting was made by a housing boom cheerleading Troll...

it's a little anodyne round here at the mo. though tbh - perhaps they should only have trolled half the trolls...

[Elizabeth]

it's a little anodyne round here at the mo. though tbh - perhaps they should only have trolled half the trolls...

You kill me.

[Peter Hun]

Oh dear me. You really have got your knickers in a twist. Now Peter old son, you will note that I have been on this site (while living through shitty shared housing during the rental crisis in London and the housing price rise crisis accross the UK) since 2004. I found it in 2004 because I was completely depressed about my prospects of never having a home of my own and felt like I was the only one in the world that thought there had to be a crash. So I was sitting in an internet cafe near London Bridge and in a moment of abject despondency typed "house price crash" into the navigation bar. The rest is a 5 year history of making comments and jokes and generally exchanging ideas on this site. It has been great. So you will see I am a veteran of this site, and a UK veteran at that. Where better to talk about 70p shampoo? I am also quite well known here, having spat my dummy on more than one occassion, and a lot of people know a lot more about me than you, and probably have a lot more to be offended about, but haven't taken offence. They are the beauty and joy of Britain. I will note that you are a bit of a Johnny come lately, only having joined when the shite started hitting the fan in 2008. And for a relative newbie I feel you are judging me harshly. Not everyone gets upset when I say things like 'I really like my life and where I am at the moment'. But then most of the regulars know that life wasn't nearly so nice until about 3 months ago, and they can generally take good cheer in my success, as I would take good cheer in the happiness of anyone else who reached out and got the things that they want. I look forward to the day when all of us housing bears are saying 'I just bought my house... and I can afford it on a 3.5x my income morgage'. I reckon that is the thing that sets some human beings apart as special. Being able to cheer that other people are cheerful rather than feeling resentful and angry because they have failed in the cheerfulness competition.

You will also notice that there are posters from all over the place as well. It truly is an international site. And given its changes, the team, the mods that run it, and the long time posters need to be congratulated. We put up with an awful phaze where every second posting was made by a housing boom cheerleading Troll. We had a phaze where the membership was being poached by a competitor site that was angry and wanted their own site. But it has prevailed, even into the bust when HousePriceCrash is no longer a marginal view. It has been an inspiration to me and I love the people that have offered me insight on a huge range of issues from science, to economics to some of the funniest commentaries on life I have ever seen. And while amusing and entertaining, it also saved my pretty (not so) little bottom from the UK housing market over the past 5 years.

On what seems to have evolved into an intense personal disagreement , not everyone is so strung up with Britain v Australia v the Black Sea. I am not. I quite like the world. For living in, I like Sydney best, but that is mostly because I generally don't have to bother to talk to people from Melbourne... in fact bizarrely this is starting to sound like a Melbourne v Sydney gripe where the Melbournians get all upset because Sydney people don't really care whether Melbourne is better (or for that matter the Prague with its monuments, Paris with its elegance (I almost got mugged in Paris, so I am not real sure about that place) or for that matter the Black Sea with its horrific job prospects and language barrier for 25 grand) ... and for heavens sake have a good laugh. Get a sense of humour mate. You really need one.

I don't like boring twats moaning on about who the British are responsible for everything and how Australia is Gods country and people - Australians whining on about it, that is, about how wonderful they are..

Go and read your previous posts and see what conclusion you should come to. Its nothing personal, its a general thing with Australians, whiney bastards.

>> not everyone is so strung up with Britain v Australia v the Black Sea.

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean..are you a fan of the Black Sea?

Edited July 25, 2009 by Peter Hun

[AndyAndy]

If we Brits are having a go at Aussie.......

I lived in Sydney (Lower North Shore) for a couple of years and came back as I hated it.

I imagine if you like slapstick, funny tasting chocolate, 80's fashion, hopeless TV, dull roads, monotinous scenery, limited ability by the local population to control a car, really bad manners underneath a thin veneer of 50's style politeness, endless talk about money and, having the Aussie experience thust down your throat in what comes across as a mix of misplaced zeal and desperation - its a grand place.

I have no idea why Sydney property has been so expensive. I'll take a view of rolling fields and flora changing through a spectrum of colours through the seasons any day; which I guess then leads me to ask why on earth would anyone ever want to live there. From that its a short step to say no wonder Aussie property is taking a mega crashing drop.

A few people have suggested Balmoral (presumably round Mosman) is a lovely place to live. If you insist on living there, all I can say is speak as you find and alas whilst walking through Balmoral I came upon a local gent having a poo in the street while eating a bag of crisps - pretty much the most disgusting thing I have ever had the misfortune to see.

[Elizabeth]

I don't like boring twats moaning on about who the British are responsible for everything and how Australia is Gods country and people - Australians whining on about it, that is, about how wonderful they are..

Go and read your previous posts and see what conclusion you should come to. Its nothing personal, its a general thing with Australians, whiney bastards.

>> not everyone is so strung up with Britain v Australia v the Black Sea.

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean..are you a fan of the Black Sea?

Its facinating how these two countries have such a mirror perception of each other. I was brought up with the phraze "whinging poms"! I didn't particularly like the phaze. It was just a "little Australian" prejudice. It has pretty much dissappeared from our shores now. We grew up. I also don't see how being happy is being whinney. I don't see how taking about relative advantages leads to the idea of a whine. I love my 70p shampoo

But did I ever say that the British are responsible for everything? In my precise, technical australian mind, born of an education system that concentrated on the 3Rs, I very much differentiate between 'the British' as a group of people, and 'the British ruling class' who are now pretty much as they ever were (just the names, faces and clothes have changed), but in a contracted empire, shitting all over the English rather than the rest of the world. Go ahead, read my posts.

I do support the rights of whoever has got to a particular place to participate equally. To engage with the society. If its possible, it adds to the fun and you might just learn something. But you will also see that I am quite defensive of protection and support of the rights and culture of the indigenous people, both here and in your land. I have come a cropper more than once amongst the ruling bureaucrats of your land ('the little London empire' I like to think of them as), by stating that I see nothing wrong with inwardly focused local cultures, that actually manage to look after themselves (as opposed to looking to clever people from London for solutions and wisdom). "They need to open up" is the response. "But if they did, they would be just like the communities that don't bother to look after each other" I say. You can't win, because they have a single closed mind in the name of Liberal thought. But I beg to differ. But then also, I come from a place where we have had lots of trouble getting to the point where we understand that indigenous people need to be able to self-determine.

When I first arrived on your shores in 1987, I was at Harwich ferry port, sitting in a huge grey hangar, exhausted from the overnight ferry journey and drinking a cup of tea and partaking of the local Bacon, Eggs and Chips (for which I have developed an enduring fondness), and at the table behind me were people talking in a language I couldn't understand. I tried very hard to work it out where they were from for about 10 minutes (Danish? Dutch? No, Scandinavian of some sort?), until it finally dawned like a light from damascus "ITS ENGLISH but not as I know it . You would never hear that now. The local dialects are gone. Everyone is mutually understandable and thinks from the same book of thoughts that are produced in an airy glass and steel office in London - or at least if the clever people of London have their way, because in the most benign anthropy of thought dictatorships, "we know best", "there is only one British identity". There used to be 100s if not 1,000s of local histories and heritages. Now everybody take planes to spain from light, airy, glass and steel Bristol or Manchester airport. Nobody has to walk out onto the tarmac anymore. The adventure, the effort, the minutae differences are all gone. I regret that.

But then by changing those diverse English cultures there are more 2nd holiday homes for Londoners to snap up at the expense of the communities that are left 1/2 empty and unable to make the cost of services add up.

I see a lot of the things that have changed in the past 30 years as purely in the cause of the economic interests, either great or small, of the London city state. The Welsh got it right. Just bomb the empty 2nd holiday homes. You will notice that Wales is not infested with them, but the entire coast of England is - because with a short sharp shock, the less pleasant of the Welsh people asserted a local identity, whereas people in England weren't allowed to retain their identity and resent un-integrated intruders from London. But the Londoners don't want to integrate with the nasty smelly locals, they just want to live in glorious seclusion in their holiday homes a couple of times a year and tell their friends about how successful they are, which in turn flows into discouraging integration of other migrants as a policy stance. Its not the fault of migrant's if 'finding common ground' has been replaced by 'respect for diversity'. And yet they have fundamentally failed to extend 'respect for diversity' to the indigenous population because they have been identified as an amorphous 'us'. And the question always comes to me, if we are all equal then how do some of us become an undifferentiated 'us' and some of us become 'other' for this philosophy? The bureaucrats and those in Government in London are fundamentally a small inwardly focused group of racists living in a small community and shutting others out but demanding that the entireity of England is open to them. They just do it under the cover of a differential 'respect for diversity'.

I don't blame Britain at all. I defend the diversity of indigenous Britain - what is left of it. Of course the only people who need to be defended are the English, because the Scottish and Welsh are encouraged to value their identities. I blame the London City State. Or is that the same thing now?

Edited July 26, 2009 by Elizabeth

[Peter Hun]

There you go, proving my point again.

[Elizabeth]

If we Brits are having a go at Aussie.......

I lived in Sydney (Lower North Shore) for a couple of years and came back as I hated it.

I imagine if you like slapstick, funny tasting chocolate, 80's fashion, hopeless TV, dull roads, monotinous scenery, limited ability by the local population to control a car, really bad manners underneath a thin veneer of 50's style politeness, endless talk about money and, having the Aussie experience thust down your throat in what comes across as a mix of misplaced zeal and desperation - its a grand place.

I have no idea why Sydney property has been so expensive. I'll take a view of rolling fields and flora changing through a spectrum of colours through the seasons any day; which I guess then leads me to ask why on earth would anyone ever want to live there. From that its a short step to say no wonder Aussie property is taking a mega crashing drop.

A few people have suggested Balmoral (presumably round Mosman) is a lovely place to live. If you insist on living there, all I can say is speak as you find and alas whilst walking through Balmoral I came upon a local gent having a poo in the street while eating a bag of crisps - pretty much the most disgusting thing I have ever had the misfortune to see.

Yes, well, by the sounds of it, that probably would have scarred you for life I know it would have me.

Sorry about the manners, but I kind of had a similiar experience of London, particularly with shopkeepers serving me instead of the first person to come in who was black on a number of occassions. It was entirely shocking, and the colour thing was too consistent to ignore. I found it deeply snide and dishonest and I would rather they had said it outright so that I could have used my broad range of rude aussie blandishments in response. Instead I used my faux 1950s manners to step back and let the rightful first customer be served in their rightful place. In terms of living, I don't actually live right in the middle of Sydney. Just far enough away to commute. All the English go to the North Shore and I am not sure why. It is the most expensive and over-rated area of the lot. I am not really trying to thrust it down your throat either. It was just that there was all this talk of how expensive it is, and it really isn't. I hate inaccuracy.

And Bardon, I have no idea where Bullima Hill is. I have always tended to live in the crappiest parts of town for economic reasons. So I have been on the bottom of the heap in terms of Sydney Suburb snobbery. So many people to look down on me. So little time! Same with London. Anyway, I never let house prices determine my address - only rents.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

My great uncle owns a house on Bulimia Hill, bought from a street-shitter.

[Elizabeth]

My great uncle owns a house on Bulimia Hill, bought from a street-shitter.

Where are all these chip-eating street-shitters. I really must find out.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Where are all these chip-eating street-shitters. I really must find out.

You need to start out by finding some of the juveniles, the public-pissers. They seem to congregate in groups at horse races.

Once fully grown and utterly oblivious to shame, they spend their latter years as a more solitary animal, shitting in streets.

[Elizabeth]

You need to start out by finding some of the juveniles, the public-pissers. They seem to congregate in groups at horse races.

Once fully grown and utterly oblivious to shame, they spend their latter years as a more solitary animal, shitting in streets.

Well its one way of keeping property prices down and the speculators out (although obviously it hasn't worked in Mosman)

Maybe they should be trained to shitt in the pushy real estate agent's cars. (that would have been a great technique for dealing with Foxtons)

[Tonkers]

Where are all these chip-eating street-shitters. I really must find out.

A friend walked in on one of his chef taking a dump while drinking a can of Fosters yesterday, an ex-pat perhaps?

[Number79]

Another shocking weekend for the bears.

and maybe a long term shock for homeowners. Oh dear...

Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print George Megalogenis and Scott Murdoch | July 27, 2009

Article from: The Australian

THE Rudd government is preparing voters for a series of interest rate hikes ahead of the next federal election as money markets expect official rates to rise by almost 1 per cent within the next 12 months.

Kevin Rudd has warned that higher interest rates were inevitable over the next 18 months, while Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner has said another round of spending cuts would be required to ensure the budget returned to surplus.

But the government is not ready to call an end to the downturn, and will press ahead with the remainder of its $77 billion stimulus program to guard against a spike in unemployment.

"We have to rein in spending, we have to get the budget into surplus as quickly as we can, but not at the expense of jobs or the overall economy," Mr Tanner said yesterday.

Labor appears willing to risk having fiscal and monetary policy run in opposite directions while the economy stabilises. This will open the door for the opposition to blame any sequence of interest rate rises on Labor's budget deficits.

Mr Tanner's comments yesterday are the strongest signal yet that the government has decided to err on the side of jobs. "We have a big challenge to meet with debt, but we will meet the challenge," he said.

"Our primary objective, though, is to sustain jobs, to keep people in employment, keep businesses open."

Money markets are predicting that interest rates could start moving as early as December

By July next year, the Reserve Bank's cash rate is expected to be 90 basis points above its present low of 3 per cent. This implies as many as four interest rates increases in the next

12 months.

The Reserve is wary of inflation popping out again. The government, by contrast, is worried that unemployment will continue to climb even after the economy has turned the corner.

Wayne Swan used the deepening recession in Britain to pour cold water on local optimists who are predicting that Australia will avoid recession altogether, and that unemployment would settle below 8 per cent.

Britain has contracted for five quarters in a row, and its annual slump is the worst since records began in 1955.

"While global policy actions have helped to restore confidence and limit the decline in global output, we know that the consequences of this global recession will be felt for some time to come," the Treasurer said yesterday in his latest economic note.

"That's why it is so important that we maintain our stimulus plans to support the Australian economy, business and jobs."

The Prime Minister at the weekend flagged the downsides of recovery. "Unemployment will continue to rise even after growth returns," Mr Rudd said. "On average in recent economic crises, unemployment has peaked 13 months after growth turns positive."

On interest rates, he warned: "Over the next 18 months, rising growth will inevitably cause interest rates to rise off their record lows."

Australia has yet to slip into technical recession. The budget assumed that gross domestic product would go backwards in the December quarter last year and the March quarter this year, and that unemployment would reach 6 per cent in the June quarter.

But the national accounts showed that GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in the March quarter, and unemployment was noticeably lower at 5.7 per cent in the June quarter.

These small but telling differences, combined with surging consumer confidence and a buoyant first-home buyer

market have encouraged a number of market economists to revise up their own forecasts and say Australia will avoid recession altogether.

But the government is sticking with Treasury's forecast of recession, with sources noting that the contraction expected over the course of 2009-10 would be due to a collapse in private business investment. The budget said unemployment would peak at 8.5 per cent in the following financial year.

One of Mr Rudd's most obvious political dilemma's is how tighter monetary policy would clash with the timing of the next election, due by the end of 2010.

The opposition is war-gaming for an early election before next May's budget. The thinking in the Liberal camp is that Labor won't want to tell voters where it will cut spending to achieve its promised surplus by the middle of this decade.

But government sources insist there will be no early election called unless the opposition obstructs key legislation, such as emission trading.

The complication for Labor is that any election next year risks being held against the backdrop of higher interest rates.

The standard variable home mortgage rate of 5.8 per cent is the lowest in more than three decades and among the lowest in the world.

The Reserve Bank has cut 425 basis points from the official cash rate since September last year and 380 basis points of that relief has been passed on to borrowers.

Australian home owners are among the most exposed to interest rate moves in the world, with 80 per cent of home mortgages set at the standard variable rate.

Westpac's head of mortgages, Axel Boyce-Moller, said the health of the Australian banks had allowed more of the official rate cuts to be given to customers compared with the US and Britain, where a significant chunk had been retained by the banks.

"The strength of the Australian banking system has been of great benefit to the Australian economy during the global financial crisis with interest rate reductions playing a key role in helping improve housing affordability," Mr Boyce-Muller said.

Citi's chief economist in Australia, Paul Brennan, said the Reserve Bank would have to raise rates in December.

"The fiscal and monetary policy stimulus in Australia has been very early and very large," Mr Brennan said. "Both business and consumer confidence have rebounded and household demand has picked up."

Harvey Norman executive chairman Gerry Harvey said the worst of the economic downturn had passed and consumers were more optimistic about the future.

"This all went off a cliff on the first of January 2008 so every month in 2008 was pretty ordinary," Mr Harvey said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...599-601,00.html

[ExecutiveSlaveBox]

It was postponed due to desperate government intervention. Check back in Jan / 10. The bribes will be negligible, interest rates will be rising along with unemployment.

Those two well known positively correlated variables.

Hehehe... how we laughed at the possibility of rising interest rates AND unemployment concurrently ay aussieboy!

Jan / 10 is the start of a very interesting period for Aussie housing mania.

Edited July 27, 2009 by ExecutiveSlaveBox

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

Hehehe... how we laughed at the possibility of rising interest rates AND unemployment concurrently ay aussieboy!

Jan / 10 is the start of a very interesting period for Aussie housing mania.

After a 2% fall in house prices in 2008, Australians now declare the crisis over.

Edited July 27, 2009 by D-503

[ExecutiveSlaveBox]

Yes that is about when I am considering shopping for another one, the sliump will be well behind us by then and we will be back in the business as usual mode.

Buy Low / Sell High

If you think this is the slump I'd be buying now, not waiting until we are back in business as usual mode (whatever that may be).

[Guest The Relaxation Suite]

Yes it was a terrible time for us all the worst slump since the war. We really suffered badly words fail me in describing the horror that we faced in those dark days that are now thankfully in the past. I am sure that I will be telling my grandchildren of this time in history of the great Australian house price crash my sons are definitely learning some lessons from it now.

Thank god it is over.

The only saving grace was that shares went down at least 25% at least I wasn't leveraged into that hole.

As long as your grandchildren are earning $150,000 (Inflation adjusted for year 2030: $2130765102763510278346) each they'll be able to buy a decent house borrowing a sensible multiple.

All's well that ends well.

Edited July 27, 2009 by D-503