Search the Community

Business failures hit 14-year high as rates rise Economic ‘perfect storm’ sees insolvencies soar https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/business-failures-hit-14-year-high-as-rates-rise-xsb67pn6m A “perfect storm” of headwinds has driven company insolvencies to their highest levels since the aftermath of the financial crisis, underscoring the effects that high interest rates and soaring prices have had on the economy. The second and third quarters of this year saw the highest and second-highest volume of insolvencies since 2009, data from the Insolvency Service showed. Some 6,319 and 6,208 companies tipped into insolvency in the second and third quarters respectively. Higher interest rates, elevated debt levels and downbeat demand as the cost of living crisis eroded real incomes combined to strain company finances. A moratorium on insolvency measures during the pandemic kept proceedings low, but these protections have now ended, exposing companies with weak balance sheets to creditor action. Christina Fitzgerald, former president of R3, the UK’s insolvency and restructuring trade body, described the dynamic as a “perfect storm of economic issues”. Mounting company failures risk worsening Britain’s poor economic growth rate and pushing unemployment higher. According to Office for National Statistics figures, the economy expanded 0.3 per cent in the latest quarter. Growth is projected by the International Monetary Fund to expand 0.5 per cent and 0.6 per cent this year and next respectively. Olga Galazoula, partner and global head of restructuring at Ashurst, the law firm, said: “It is difficult to look at these [insolvency] figures and not see a risk of a recession looming.” So far this year Britain has avoided a recession due to government support and households using savings amassed during lockdown to finance spending. However, economists have warned that growth will sour as the effects of the Bank of England’s rate rises sweep through the country at a quicker pace over the next year. Simon Edel, UK turnaround and restructuring strategy partner at EY-Parthenon, said: “Since the pandemic, insolvency activity had been heavily focused among smaller companies, but we are now seeing increased activity in the mid-market as macro-economic and financing stresses build.” An underwhelming festive trading period, in which leisure, retail and hospitality firms typically generate most of their income, could push insolvencies even higher.

Where does the money in the bank of mum and dad come from -or is it debt lumped on to their own property? Debt of mum and dad. DOMAD

perfect storm on its way https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47041241

Some interesting stats and sentiment in this article.. http://www.voice-online.co.uk/article/outstanding-mortgages-hits-all-time-high-uk The average outstanding mortgage in the UK stood at an eye-watering £121,678 for August 2017 17/10/2017 08:00 PM CONTINUED GROWTH in house prices, along with a small decline in the number of outstanding home loans has led to the highest level of mortgage debt per household ever recorded. The October Money Statistics, produced by the Money Charity, have revealed that the average outstanding mortgage in the UK stood at an eye-watering £121,678 for the month of August, in 2017. This has increased on 2013, when the figure stood at £109,487, and is the first year where the average balance on mortgages has been pushed over £120,000. Driven by ever-increasing house prices, it is also fed by longer and longer mortgages repayment periods and larger loans – the amount of 35-year mortgage terms has increased from 2.7% in 2005 to 15% in 2017. Furthermore, as wages stagnate in real terms, the average first time buyer is borrowing 3.63 times their income. Therefore, with outstanding mortgage debt rising to new levels, and higher interest rates predicted in the next month, it could become harder for households to pay off such mortgages. However, the amount of mortgage accounts with arrears has remained largely unchanged, and payments due for loans in arrears have continued to increase over the past year. This is a knock-on effect from continued low interest rates. Steph Hayter, Acting Chief Executive of The Money Charity says: “The rising amount we owe on mortgages should be a concern to all of us. As interest rates seem likely to rise, people may soon begin to feel the effects on their wallets.” “Those with large outstanding debts, especially people with variable rate mortgages, should prepare for a time in the near future where monthly repayments will be higher.” Other key points from the October Money Statistics include: - The savings ratio recovered up to 5.9% in Q2 2017, up from 1.9% in the previous quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics. - Outstanding consumer credit per adult has increased by £369 in the month of August 2017. - 35% of households are believed to have no savings whatsoever in the UK.

UK household debt is a key risk to financial stability - http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/301116.aspx We're not seeing the full impact yet. How long can the Bank of England tolerate its current pricing model to absorb those price increases, without raising rates... That depends on individual agendas, egos and overviews of success. My personal perspective is that the current rate cannot be pegged for the next 30 years. The country is in spending frenzy via credit card syndromes. As for house prices, if the internal inhabitants cannot afford, then the country will entice those who can afford e.g. How many premiership football clubs are owned locally? Who are the majority shareholders of the ex-public managed institutions (BT, BG etc...). I'd say unless they rein in the loose monetary policy, junk bond status is our destination.

Appears the Bank is after selling off shipping loans whilst other banks in the sector are also trying to do the same thing, however it appears difficult to agree with potential buyers on the mix of bundled loans such as performing, less performing, non-performing loans and different types of ships. This to me would appear to be sign that all is not well as has been speculated elsewhere. http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-loans-shipping-exclusiv-idUKKCN0ZM19I

First post in a long while... But very relevant to how the markets will react and what that will do to the debate. The Government issues debt and a calendar of all the planned issuance dates can be found here http://www.dmo.gov.uk/reportView.aspx?rptCode=D5D&rptName=fa29db60-825e-4dc9-93a1-0ec538b00338||GILT%20MARKET%20(10)&reportpage=Issuance_Calendar It shows the next planned debt issuance by the DMO will be on tuesday 5th July. At that point the market will start to tell the government what it thinks. At the moment HMG is proposing to borrow at 1.5% for 5 years. Whether there will be takers is a key question? Now set aside that they could borrow the money from HSBC more cheaply... Whether Mr Carney will have to use his £250bn to buy them is another question... and before changes to the Bank Return we would have known within a week... now it is hidden from the people. More on that topic here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/204683-do-posts-on-hpc-make-a-difference-i-think-so-and-here-is-an-example/?p=1102719084 So we won't know who buys but we will know how easily the government can get the debt away. So look for some nerves in the market (and some brown trouser moments in government) in the days running up to the 5th July. If liquidity becomes a real problem then we might even see the issuance cancelled... (apologies for the scatological metaphor). If the market isn't keen to buy UK Government debt then I think we'll see the pound in all sorts of pressure, we may need that emergency budget that Mr Osborne has gone quiet about, and perhaps, we'll see some mortgage deals withdrawn, and the first signs of winter for anyone with big mortgages. Optobear

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/12157842/Weve-got-80000-in-student-debt.-Can-we-borrow-100000-for-our-first-home.html Contains the classic line, Renting at a 6% yield. Not the worst and who knows maybe they might be able to find a cheaper rental? Maybe then it will feel like they are paying for a service and not like throwing money away!

Parliament will hold a three hour debate on the issue of ‘Money Creation and Society’ on Thursday 20th November. This will be the first time in 170 years that Parliament has debated money creation. The Money Creation and Society debate is being hosted by Steve Baker (Conservative), Caroline Lucas (Green), Michael Meacher (Labour), Douglas Carswell (UKIP), and David Davis (Conservative). The backbench debate in the Main Chamber of Parliament creates an opportunity for MPs from all parties to learn about the issue, ask questions and deepen their understanding. There are lots of important questions that Parliament should address during the three hours in the Main Chamber, these include: Who should create money? Should high-street banks have the effective right to create money every time they make a loan, given the recent consequences for the economy? How should newly created money be used? Do we want banks to have the power to create money when this leads to unaffordable housing and financial instability? Should we have allowed the Bank of England to create £375bn with little scrutiny from parliament, and use this money to inflate financial markets? Were there better uses of this money? See the whole Positive Money blog post here: http://www.positivemoney.org/2014/11/uk-parliament-debate-money-creation-first-time-170-years/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27393494 5th most read story on the BBC website this morning. That'll be your MSE types contacting the Ombudsman trying to claim that their bank had a "duty of care" to make sure they weren't idiots before lending them money. You mean we have to pay it back? Shit just got real....