Roman Roady

All, A couple of good articles in the independent today…well I enjoyed them anyway! Quite topical??? http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnist...icle2328774.ece http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...icle2328851.ece From the first article…. Now, as an example of pricing risk in a completely different field, turn to the buy-to-let property market in Britain. Some landlords, crazily in my view, are putting no price at all on the risks they are running. For they find that by the time they have paid interest on the mortgage they have taken out to purchase the property, spent money on insurance and maintenance, taken into account the level of rents and any gaps in letting, they have no running surplus. Their investment will pay off only if they can show a capital gain. The question that investors around the world were asking last week about pricing risk applies as much to a buy-to-let landlord in, say, Leicester, as it does to financial institutions investing in General Motors bonds. I pass on the warning given to me by a senior City regulator just before Christmas. He told me, emphasising his words, carefully making sure that I had grasped the full significance of what he was saying, that risk was being systematically underpriced. This was because of the large amounts of cheap money that are currently available. It would, he said, surely end badly. Last week, I remembered his remarks. And from the second… Currently, though, many investors regard Japan as being one of the most important sources of global "liquidity". After all, investors are able to borrow cheaply in yen and reinvest the proceeds elsewhere. Should the Bank of Japan raise interest rates a lot further, this particular source of liquidity would be closed off. Many see the yen's recent rally as the beginning of this process. I somehow doubt it. Rather, heightened risk aversion reduces the willingness of investors to indulge in this particular "carry trade". It's the vulnerability of investors' animal spirits, not the actions of our central bankers, that is leading to this renewed bout of market volatility. And their spirits are vulnerable because, all along, they've know that the good times wouldn't last.

£9 bn is a lot! However, what seems to have gone almost totally un-noticed is the contract that has been awarded (or about to be awarded) to QinetiQ. I refer to the £10 bn...yes £10 bn!!!! contract to centralise all armed forces training in South Wales

She'll soon change her mind when she sees the size of my Pilum!

...up here in deepest darkest Lincolnshire!!! Been looking for one of these since last year...when RB touted it as the first signs of real trouble. At last! Anyone else seeing these 'For Sale/To Let' signs cropping up?

Agreed. Possibly a bad example to raise this fact. BUT over all, we aren't talking about small increases!! Remember, as the value of the % drops start to increase, the value of the % rise that they wipe out will not increase in a linear manner.

So who will be in power and how will he/she pay for it all? The optoins aren't that broad are they?

This is incorrect, a drop of x% is more than a rise of x%, in terms of the amount of hard cash....a lot more! A price RISE (in %) will be erradicated by a much smaller drop (again in terms of %). If a 100k house increases by 100%, how much does the decrease have to be in % to erradicate that gain? 50%? Every one should bear this in mind over the next few months!!!

I think the coalitions big mistake was thinking that once they got rid of Saddam, they would be left with a country similar to W.Germany after ww2...ie one that would move quickly into a prosporous peace. Instead they have a new Yougoslavia on their hands, in a much more sensitive area of the world! Watch this space in the next year!

Yes! I thought much the same. Of all the things that anyone might want to ask our current Chancellor and possible future Prime minister (especially now)...they have to ask him about what has basically come out of Jade Goodys fat mouth!!!! Talk about let him off the hook! :angry:

When the world appoints an un-corruptable international police force, that will keep all rogue states in line in a firm but fair manner, THEN the government of the UK can start to relax on defence issues. However until that wonderful day comes, we all still have to pay for our armed forces to maintain our current and our future liberty. This includes expeditionary warfare IF NECESSARY (although I am not an advocate of what we are up to at the moment). We depend upon the yanks too much as it is. The first duty of any government is the defence of the interests of the UK. Its about time that Blair and Brown understood this! Shaving of bits here and there, a bit of over stretch else where, is NOT a responsible way to fulfill their obligations to us.

LOL...neither! Thanks for the advice ken

Before I start...I have nothing against any of our Celtic neighbours...many good friends of mine are Scottish and Welsh...BUT I have never understood how the hell they got away with the whole devolution thing. What about English devolution? It really p1$$e$ me off that there have been some votes in parliament (that by definition have affected all of England) that have only got through with the help of the Scottish and Welsh MP's!!! We are soon to be ruled by a Scotsman...but will the senior MP in the Scottish Parliament EVER be English??? The only threat to the union is from nulab and their 'bright ideas' club!

Who cares? The savings of renting compared to buying are big enough to make the odd lost deposit an occupational hazard! If the rent goes up, just move and let the land lord find someone else.

You can't eat equity! However, if you hit hard times you can survive pretty well with 75k in the bank.

OK guys, I'm impressed. Many on this site were predicting Q1 in this country as the time when sentiment would turn. The initial signs are that you boffins were right. The BoE has surprised many 'experts' and seem to have started the first ripples of panick The common opinion also seems to be that what happens in the USA also comes over here....with a six month lag??? SO, the question is: what is happening over there? We seem to have gone quiet on that subject at the moment. Are there any posters who live out there who have an opinion? I'm posting this because the first signs of the american slump appeared 6 months ago.

I think that it is commonly accepted that one of the next major conflicts in the future will be over water supplies. Also, as sea levels rise there will be huge polical ramifications as millions of displaced people migrate across political borders. One point that I find facinating and terrifying: Chinas output of CO2 will increase by our total output in 2 years. In other words, even if we (The UK) cut our CO2 emissions to ZERO right now, the chinese will wipe out that loss in just 2 years!!!!! Think about that when our politians start spouting on about our duties to the ecology of the planet (by raising taxes). The one thing that needs to be done is to get China and the USA to reduce their emissions. If that happens then we are on the right path. To think that it was a split vote in Florida that ensured that Bush beat Gore in 2001!!! What a pivitol moment in the history of the world that was! When the HPC FINALLY hits these islands and we all dive in to buy, just make sure you buy on high ground. The next HPI will take elevation into account!

As far as an impending HPC is concerned, there are two big differences (IMO) between where we are now and the end of the 80's/beginning of the 90's. 1. This forum and others like it. In other words, the internet. Bad news will travel MUCH faster than before. 2. BTL...we didn't have to put up with this last time, or at least not in the amount we have had it this time. So lots more second homes bought as investments and quicker disemination of data. Put the two together and this will ensure that when the panick spreads (which it will), lots of propertys will flood the market in a short space of time!

I did own my own home...but an un-faithful wife and the subsequent divorce in 2000 put pay to that. The weak sexist divorce laws of this country are another subject for another forum! I have to say that I never really enjoyed home ownership. However if I had been able to keep that house, it would have been paid for by now. £52,000 mortgage for a 3 bed semi in Fareham Hants back in 1994!!! Ah well.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html On the 5/10 year graphs above, gold prices seem to have become somewhat unstable in the last year or so...any ideas why?

Shocking! Incase no one has realised, we are an island race. There is no international police force, on an international level we work on a pretty basic level, i.e. the mentality of the school bully. The bottom line is that strength wins! This government is neglecting it PRIMARY duty, defence of THIS country. We are putting our security at risk to support US operations in far off lands. I hope the yanks appreciate it because if our freedom of trade on the seas is ever threatened, we will need their support more than ever! Considering the amount of goods we import, that is a big gamble. But there again, by the time these chickens come home to roost, both Blair and Brown will have their knighthoods and be earning millions on the speech circuits of the world!

I've been a member here since september and have really enjoyed reading everyones thoughts on the HPI crisis. However this has to be my favourite!!! I couldn't agree with the sentiments expressed here more. You get one life, so live it...on your own terms. If that means that you have to rent to live in the place/house of your choice then so be it. Its all about personal freedom. I have never understood our tendancy to HAVE to own a home. Sure I would like to one day, but I am not prepared to become a slave to do it! The coming HPC will see to me owning the roof over my head when I give up work. But until I can reasonably afford a house, I intend to be a gypsy!

Good man RB, a quality piece!

WRT the Poplar thing...OH MY WORD! What a pile of $h1te Best get this HPC started ASAP

I liked the way that the guy being interviewed got in a plug for people to sell now. Just goes to show that the EA's have a VI in a crash as well! As stated on another thread in here.

Surely the US has the same problems as us wrt debt, HPI and immigration...and then some! There is a nice little HPC gathering pace there. Why is this 'little' group of islands off the coast of NW Europe any different?