Switch625
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Posts posted by Switch625
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2 hours ago, Pop321 said:
Like you guys it is taking all his will power (and mine) to sit on our hands until winter at least. We will know soooo much more by then.
Your take aligns very much with my feelings on this. I don't think anyone is in any doubt that house prices are and have been in a huge asset bubble for a considerable period of time.
We can disagree about exactly about when it started (*early 2000's), who was responsible (*successive governments involving all major parties) and even the causes (*greed and self interest supported by intentionally lax lending regulation, increased demand and limitation of supply in that order).
*purely my perception, others are perfectly at liberty to disagree, but ultimately it matters not when it started or what the causes were, the outcome is the same.
What we have witnessed recently with Mr. Sunak's latest prop for the market and recent calls to help
tenantslandlords in distress are in my opinion an attempt to realise a 'Return to Normal' which is front running the next step 'Fear', as evidenced by MSM covering stories of those in distress and the sudden influx of 'Trolls' on this site and others.The life cycle of bubbles rarely follows the exact formula expressed by the graph above, if it did then it would be easy to predict, this site is proof that this hasn't been easy to predict. There are many false peaks and troughs in a bubble and this could be just another false peak as is being stated by the 'Bulls' .... but I doubt it.
The problem for the majority of 'Bulls' is that they won't have got in during the "Awareness Phase', they will have arrived later, in the 'Mania Phase'. Even those that timed it well and have substantial 'paper gains' from the 'Awareness Phase' will almost certainly have doubled down in the 'Mania Phase', this makes the 'Bulls' very vulnerable indeed to the 'Blow off Phase'. They are terrified that they have mistimed this market and now stand to lose out and for some potentially lose everything.
For what my opinion is worth (which after a number of decades on this planet I have come to realise is very little) we are hovering between the steps 'Return to Normal' and 'Fear'. The next few months will show us if those in charge can engineer yet another 'New Paradigm' or if 'Capitulation' wins out.
2 hours ago, Pop321 said:These will be interesting times
Indeed, time to sit back and enjoy the show ...
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Another article on the impact of the non eviction ruling on landlords
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/renting/landlords-face-20000-bill-due-governments-eviction-ban/
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@Sausage, the following is a great little site to calculate costs over time ..
https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/
Don't forget to add in cost of arrangement fees
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Fair point, but that would be fraud.
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@HovelinHove You have my sympathy, as Adarmo pointed out that may swing things. Everyone needs to sit down with a spreadsheet and workout their own personal circumstances from as dispassionate a point of view as possible.
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Well made and reasonable points @Pop321.
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1 minute ago, HovelinHove said:
it may really be different this time
It could be, but I strongly doubt it, just as I doubt that we will see a true crash.
My take is that we will see decent correction, but those hoping for a crash are likely to be disappointed once again as the vested interests have already shown they are more than willing and capable of sacrificing the futures of others to preserve their own undeserved wealth.
Very reasonable points @adarmo
3 minutes ago, adarmo said:i do not know why you'd continue to hand money over to a property hoarding people farmer
For those paying high rental costs you have a valid point, but my personal situation is a comfortable house at below market rental, so I am happy to sit tight for now. Obviously thats only my situation and a lot of people won't have that.
7 minutes ago, satsuma said:Good point about moving money out of a currency that might go down
Sterling is likely to be reduced relative to the dollar, so best advice is act accordingly.
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@HovelinHove neatly sums up the situation.
I too think this recent wave of activity will push prices up, which will of course queue a lot of 'I told you so' from the property bulls.
Let them have their moment in the sun, the fundamentals remain horrible and for me it's a down hill trajectory for house prices after what I think will turn out to be a brief period of mania.
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And this could be a VERY bad winter. The one after may not be to clever either ...
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Where are the naysayer trolls who insist that everyone on HPC is negative and bullying when someone buys? 🤔
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It won't just be the bad ones that go to the wall sadly
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+1 oh and hope it all works for you too 🤞
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Predictably STA travel have gone, along with 500 jobs. Shame, I used them last year and they were very good.
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1 hour ago, winkie said:
Housing crisis is discussed from 1:01 to 1:06.
Alistair Darling, George Osborne and Phillip Hammond answering questions. As expected a largely London centric view and zero recognition of any culpability for adding to the housing crisis under their watch, although credit to Alastair Darling for recognition that there is a national crisis and an interesting view on Air BnB within cities such as Edinburgh.
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1 hour ago, longgone said:
As much as I moan I'm
almostcertain these chumps will extend furlough. They won't let this go.Corrected for you
The Germans are leading the way and extending their scheme for the next 12 months at an estimated cost of £9 bn (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/germany-to-extend-coronavirus-furlough-to-24-months), which looks to be excellent value compared to the UK scheme which has cost £35 bn so far.
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16 hours ago, qejunkie said:
No. Then they will be a negative equity "mortgage prisoner". They might as well rent from the bank though.
+1 it is at this point that the reality for many people who think of themselves as home owners kicks in. They were never home 'owners', they were home 'borrowers' and the landlord is the bank.
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Just now, Warlord said:
The sword will always fall on the middle class
Now that I totally agree with
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4 hours ago, Warlord said:
They will just leave or find away to get around it. C'est la vie.
Sadly you may well be right.
The standard response is to threaten to leave and then if not pandered too, disappear to another location with lax regulation to allow their continued tax
evasionminimisation.Daft really as they need access to markets to make their profits and that could quite easily be withheld if enough governments called their bluff. There is the faintest glimmer of hope that given this is a global problem they may yet be pinned down and forced to pay their way, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Won't sell when they could do so at a small gain/loss then find they can't sell and are trapped. Standard behaviour in a downturn and likely to lead to a lot of misery.
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3 hours ago, richmondtw said:
Buit uit is sadly true very often.
There are plenty of people out there who have far more money than I do. A bigger house than I have. A more expensive car than I have. A yacht. A private plane. Why would I care.
Good luck to them.
I am happy with what I have and my family I do not care if others have more wealth than I d. I feel no envy whatsoever.
As long as I and my family and friends are healthy I am happy.@richmondtw I won't respond for the other posters, but deal with your comments related only to me and would ask that you please look at the context of the comments I was responding to.
I am not jealous, I have no need to be, I have done well out of capitalism and look likely to continue to do so. I am however concerned that a swathe of society has been materially disadvantaged and calling out those people as jealous rather misses the point.
3 hours ago, richmondtw said:1 - I do not see anyone laughing at anyone who cannot afford to buy a house.
2 - It is the younger people who love mass uncontrolled immigration and who have no concept of the idea of supply and demand. They seem unable to understand that every action has a consequence.
3 - Ranting that some people are bad people because they have been able to afford to buy a house is indeed jealousy.
4 - I won my own house - should I feel guilty about that. I do not I worked hard for it. ( I am 32).
Again please look at the context of the comment responded to, which was mocking the very people who have been disadvantaged which is at best unpleasant.
As for ranting, I am not sure what you are referring to, perhaps the comments I was responding to?
As to owning your own home, congratulations, and no you shouldn't feel guilty for doing so, again please check original comment.
For clarity I intend to buy as soon as this market looks like it makes sense. At that stage I of course won't be a home owner, as I will have a modest mortgage and as such it will be the bank that owns my home until I pay off the remainder of my debt.
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1 hour ago, NobodyInParticular said:
What a nasty, hate-filled post.
Yes it is.
The interesting part is the subtext of the posts from this and other threads. They can't see that anyone with an alternate world view may be correct, or perhaps they can and that's why the're so worried?
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10 minutes ago, Simhadri said:
Then mind your own business instead of behaving like a jealous brat praying for other people's failure.
Your ill earned gains have disadvantaged the people that you and your kind have leeched off for far too long, are my business.
12 minutes ago, Simhadri said:Your tax of 20p can be paid to your fellow commies in shelter.
Unsurprisingly I am a higher rate tax payer and I do very nicely out of capitalism thanks
14 minutes ago, Simhadri said:Seems your line of work is being on dole.
That doesn't even make sense ??
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15 hours ago, Simhadri said:
Haha my tenants are not on benefits and they've been working while people like you on furlough dreaming about fantasies.
Instead of worrying about me, make sure you don't end up on dole. Move your backside and go to work.
BTW, once economy bounces back, I'm sure you'll lose your trousers also when you struggle to gather a deposit to buy a shoe box or you'll continue to pay rent for another 20 years moaning on this forum. ?
@Simhadri Just a few problems with your post;
- If things turn really nasty the tenants on benefits might be some of the few that keep paying
- I am not on furlough
- I really don't worry about you
- In my line of work if I am on the dole the rest of the country will already have been made redundant before me and that includes your tenants
- I am extremely fortunate to be very well remunerated for my work
- The economy isn't going to bounce
- I already have a deposit big enough to buy the houses I want, I am choosing to wait and watch for the time being
- I haven't spent 20 years moaning on this forum
- I have spent eight years getting myself into a position to take advantage of a HPC
- I will have no pity for those who have leeched off others for so long going to the wall
- I will continue to pay tax which will support your welfare benefits when you need them after this is over ... you're welcome
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5 minutes ago, AndyRB5 said:
I'm comfortable with the decision I've made. My view is that the bubble you describe is going to burst or at least deflate somewhat, you clearly have a different view.
If I'm wrong, I fully understand that will be another 6 to 12 mths of rental costs and potential house price growth. I will then, with much sadness, concede defeat and look to buy.
However, we are entering such unprecedented times economically and socially, if I've ever had doubts about the robustness of housing as an asset that will always rise in value, now is that time.
I never really believed that dropping out of the EU would have a massive impact on house prices (more political scare tactics to try and influence the vote). Millions unemployed though, which is unfortunately soon to become a reality, and the squeeze on lending for FTBs etc may be another matter.
I am in the same position and doing exactly the same thing for exactly the same reason. A potential small rise, say 5% over the next year would be annoying but not a game changer and I see far more likelihood that at the worst I will be no worse off and quite probably substantially better off.
3 minutes ago, captainb said:Thats fine. I would suggest though if that doesnt happen and prices are within 5% of today in a years time.. You make a decision and move for it.
The temptation is.. Oh but the brexit thing will defo crash in 2022,or election or... Or... Rinse repeat
I will only still be renting in a years time if house prices are coming down appreciably, but I agree with your point, I certainly won't wait for other possible causes for falls. The wretched political class that we have suffered under in this country for decades have made it abundantly clear that they are in it up to their snouts and won't do anything to help anyone but themselves and their masters.
Countdown to leveraged BTL going bust thread
in House prices and the economy
Posted · Edited by Switch625
Banks ultimately will do what they need to do as businesses to make money. Tenants are of course worried, as I am sure are many
home ownersmortgage holders, but most worried of all are the leveraged landlords.The government has no need to bail out landlords when the banks will be the ones vilified in the press for the unpleasant task of seizing assets using the existing laws.
It would be quite easy for the government to arrange a deal with the banks to ensure that tenants or former
home ownersmortgage holders remain housed and the people who incurred the debt i.e. landlords and mortgage holders remain responsible for those debts.Little wonder the landlords are starting to panic.