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Everything posted by dugsbody
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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?
dugsbody replied to LetsBuild's topic in House prices and the economy
LOL I was waiting for this to start. Every time. Every single time people take a huge amount of action to avoid a crisis, there are always the idiots after saying "see, look, nothing much happened, told you not to panic". -
No, because it has already broken many of the promises the primary advocates made. Your position is the usual slippery one, nothing can be measured, there is no criteria for anything. Which all works out rather nicely for you because it means leave campaigners could lie as much as they like to harvest votes and then afterward, "we all voted for brexit despite what they said, not because". It's yet another bit of dishonesty on top of the mountain of stinking dishonesty that made brexit.
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No, most just understand the gravity model of trade and sensibly agree that leaving a frictionless trade union and every single associated trade agreement with other countries that came with it, is definitely going to have a negative lasting impact. This does not require modelling of complex scenarios. It is just accepted wisdom and nothing to do with bias towards the EU. I'm pretty sure you could ask experts from around the world who are neutral about the EU and they'd say the same.
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Again, some agreement with you. The major problem facing the EU is that people tend to blame the wrong things in times of crisis. For example, imagine the EU did not exist but the migrant crisis still does. What changes? Not much. We'd still have Greece, Italy and other edge nations having to deal with most of the issue. They'd still be asking their neighbours to take some responsibility and help. The Eastern European states would still be largely antagonistic to the idea of helping because they're less liberal than Western Europe. We'd still have Germany with a lingering shadow of the holocaust in their cultural consciousness, trying to pay somewhat for past debts by offering to take a large portion of the migrants. We'd still have Turkey shouldering a huge amount of the burden and probably a consortium of European states paying them to keep the migrants there. We'd still have the UK sitting comfortable as an island with the usual suspects lecturing mainland Europe on how poor they are at dealing with the issue. It would look very similar to how it is right now. Yet right now, people blame the EU for the problem. Complex diagnosis isn't what the vast majority do but they do need something to blame. So they blame the wrong thing. And all this does is make the problem worse because cooperation is what is needed, not hysteria. Oh and by the way, the current COVID-19 pandemic. Another issue that people are going to look for easy targets to blame. So yes, you're correct, the EU is an easy target and has some testing times ahead. I don't think people being idiots is a good reason to leave.
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The Bank Of England Clueless Thread
dugsbody replied to interestrateripoff's topic in House prices and the economy
Global interest rates have trended towards zero. Carney is irrelevant. -
Over 40s to pay 2.5% extra tax to fund elderly care
dugsbody replied to Simhadri's topic in House prices and the economy
People won't vote for that. In democracy, mob rules. -
Over 40s to pay 2.5% extra tax to fund elderly care
dugsbody replied to Simhadri's topic in House prices and the economy
Of course it is. What else is there? Everything boils down to the threat of violence, or "might makes right". -
Over 40s to pay 2.5% extra tax to fund elderly care
dugsbody replied to Simhadri's topic in House prices and the economy
That's a stupid way of looking at it. Really, the problem is this age segregated policies. They work because they divide and conquer. Just as you're exhibiting now. -
That is because of how our political system works. Their primary job is to win votes every five years and you do that with appearances rather than useful policy. Just ask them how many self build houses have been built as a result of their "land available for self build register". How many councils have added a single item to that register? It is all just optics for a broadly unintelligent population.
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I didn't say it wasn't happening. I'm saying that people like you will simultaneously claim we should be turning away all immigrants, sinking ships if needed, blame Germany for inviting them in - but in the next instant you see an opportunity for more anti-EU hate and blame the EU for the problems Greece is now experiencing and blame Greece for turning away immigrants. You would be the same person who would vote for any party who promises never to let an economic immigrant near our shores. In short, you're just one of many, many liars filled with hate.
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I'm not interested in the past vote nor am I interested in what Piggy Cameron did. The referendum was badly run and favoured the side who lied relentlessly and purposely chose to convey mixed messages in order to harvest voters with contradictor opinions on what brexit meant. It was the opposite of how I think democracy should be. You're happy with it because you won.