Pablo-silver or lead?

Catch22 Anti Raping the Planet Anti War It’s like ‘John Shuttleworth’ said “That Neil Diamond’s got a decent hair cut since he Split with those hippies Crosby, stills & Nash!” Needle Thanks for the correct link I’m waiting for the Bulls to tell me why I should drawdown on the mass of easy money available to me head north to buy property? What’s the likely 5 year upside? Pablo Silver or Lead?

This was posted by ‘undersupply’ on the ‘What are house prices doing in your area’ Newcastle Upon Tyne, tread. “City Lofts Group slumped into the red last year with a pre-tax loss of £3.9m against a profit of £5.4m the year before. The quoted property company, which has three prominent sites on the Quayside including a £30m scheme to convert Gateshead's Tyne Bridge Tower into 168 luxury flats, suffered from no sales from developments in the nine months to the end of December. The Harrogate-based developer, which specialises in mixed use urban development schemes, yesterday said it had a total development pipeline of £457m. Six of these developments were on site at a total gross development value of £183m. Five new developments of 1,326 apartments with a gross development value of £274m are due to start in 2006. Chief executive Stuart Wright said: "The group has been investing in additional internal resources, especially in its management team. "We have strengthened our project management, sales and marketing capabilities to lay further foundations for the significant growth and expansion of the City Lofts city centre residential development business." The Tyne Bridge Tower scheme, expected to be completed by next summer, will have 80,000 sq ft of flats ranging in price of £100,000 upwards.” http://icnewcastle.icnetwork.co.uk/0500bus...-name_page.html If the ones of us living south of Watford and old enough to have lived through the ‘last time’ are suffering from collective greed driven amnesia, what’s going on up north? Is it different from last time? What happened 1988/9? Ah yes I remember, although prices continued to rise in the north after they started dropping in the south (the ripple lag effect) last time prices up north toped out well below (like for like) the peak southern prices). They went up less and came down less. This is shown in the stats and why some people quote an 18% drop in average UK prices, means there was no crash back then and therefore there won’t be now. The reality of course was you couldn’t give houses away and there were tens of thousands of bargains to be had (in the south) many over 50% lower than their previous highest sale prices. I remember the refrain from the north “our prices are just catching up with the south it’s a correction that was long over due”. Last time around the market sorted itself out. The north fell a bit the south fell a lot, then prices settled into a sort of equilibrium. Today looking a Blackpool, Bolton, Newcastle, Liverpool and the like there are prices that would make the most Bullish EA in Berkshire, Hampshire and Surrey blush! Are their any bulls on here that really believe that the current prices in the north aren’t going to tank in the next 18 months to 2.5 years? If not why not? Pablo Silver or Lead?

nodumsunreader after 911 the US reduced IR's to support the growth of their economy and keep the people happy during the comming war on terror. Bush thought a couple of quick wars in Afganistan and Iraq (in and out 3 years tops) would do the trick, nice and clean with good headlines for home consumption. However the war on global terror will not be large set piece battle/invasions. It will be inteligence led, low intensity and take 30 years +. Any way back to UK IR. The Fed lowered inerest rates too quick, too low (1%) and for too long. The UK followed suit. This resulted in an unsustainable asset bubble developing in property prices both in the US and the UK. This cant be undone now and as a result IR need to go up higher than would have been the case if monatary/IR rate policy had not been so loose. The Fed, BOE MPC and Euro zone must pre empt general inflation picking up (as it is) so interest rates go up. Its going to be messy but not as messy as what will happen if interest rates are reduced. So people should have expected and prepared for higher interest rates. Not 9 or 10% but certainly 5.5 to 7.5% in the next 3 years as the 2 billion new consumers in Indo/China drive inflation. We've all been riding high on the hog, now the hangover, there is nothing anyone can do to change what is comming. Pablo Silver or Lead?

330k down to 290k (the EA details say Stamp duty paid). If you alow for a discount off current asking price(assuming the vendors although slow to catch on, probably arn't totaly stupid) you should be able to get it for arround 265 to 270k. alternatively as the show has only just begun and this is just the froth coming off the froth, so to speak. Why not wait a year or two and pick a better one without the garages on the front for arround 170 to 210k. 330k asking to 210k selling peak to bottom over two and a half year period is your worst case senario, you may do better. All the conflicting data/anecdotals and especialy the Righmove/NAEA spin point to the fact were at the begining of the correction. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Rightmove class Poole & Bournemouth as Southwest. Forget Rightmoves mickey mouse Asking prices (in one day they'd added 23 houses over a £Million in Poole alone, none of which are selling, spiking the average). All new builders/developers/speculators are having to offer discounts/price reductions to shift inventory. So if they are lowering prices I can't explain why Rightmove say the trend upwards is at a never seen before anualised 48%. It aint happening. Pablo Silver or Lead?

There are lots of deals to be done with builders big and small (too much inventory and much more in the pipeline) at well below the highest prices paid by the unfortunate who listened to the unscrupulous. 20 to 25% off will look a crazy price to have paid in 18 months to 2 years. Bonfire of the ephemeral equity! Cash is going to be king again! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Europa First I am by nature a bull who by luck and judgement has done very well out of property over the last 25 yrs. I do not for one minute believe in conspiracies. However when I look at real house prices in Southampton, Poole, Bristol, Basingstoke parts of the home counties East and West Midlands I can buy certain classes of property (like for like) at 15 to 20% lower that 18 months ago. I am not suggesting that the UK average price of property has fallen by this amount (it will and a shed full more), just that you can if you wish buy property at these reduced prices. If people choose to buy property at this time in the cycle and pay more than they need to, good luck to them. The downward pressure on prices has not even started yet, it will and nothing GB and the MPC will/can do will stop it. EA are empty, very few deals being put together, those that are often fall out of bed due to chains breaking, discretionary buyers of property and FTB have all but disappeared, lots of empty property purchased recently at prices not justified by the rental yield standing empty, developers reducing previous selling prices (like for like) by up to 20%. Property in the US and Spain is Tanking (driven by the restructuring of expectations that the market driven by global fundamentals will out!) we will follow. It’s only just begun. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Is reducing unemployment one of the MPC's aims? Pablo Silver or Lead?

RichM A well timed reality check. The more I see collective denial, VI spin and HPC devotees wavering, the more I know it is going to be different this time, very different! The collective ignorance, denial and amnesia of the vast majority places the enlightened in a very lonely place. If I knew it was going to be the same as last time, I would find it strangely reassuring in a “been there survived and actually prospered last time” kind of way. This time it will be different and I find the enormity of the coming “Correction” and the fallout it will cause will have devastating consequences for our society. Pablo Silver or Lead?

There are always 4 bellweather indicators for property markets abroad, where Brits are clustered. 1. Are the prices (like for like) being achieved for new build (by the developer sales machines) properties higher or lower than the past? 2. How easy is it to sell your shiny new property that you just paid the developer top $ for? And what will you get for it? 3. Is the supply of new mugs/dreamers getting off the plane, going up or down as a proportion of, new build and disillusioned old mugs/dreams shattered by reality who are putting their place in the sun on the resale market, going up or down? 4. Fundamentals. Many people buying in Cyprus and Dubai are releasing equity form UK or other property abroad. The Wall of cheap money that became artificially available after the US dropped interest rates to 1% is evaporating and it’s time to start paying the bill! Oh and with Dubai in mind it has a risk profile ignored by most, never buy a property built on sand. If you seriously believe that terrorists driven by a fundamental hatred of the west are going to allow Dubai to be a show case of western decadence then good luck. If you’re already in the market and can get out with a profit, then consider taking it. This place will be the world biggest white elephant as there will not be the market to sustain it! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Considering buying a holiday home (especially abroad), note to self, Engage Brain! If the saying ‘that the first casualty of war is the truth’ is a truism, then ‘the first casualty of buying a holiday home is often basic common sense’. We are a nation seemingly obsessed with property and property prices. Witness the rash of TV programs imploring us to relocate, trade up, buy to let and do up to sell. In the last five years property prices in Britain have increased dramatically and a whole industry has sprung up encouraging us to release equity and buy abroad. The vested interests (VI) such as the Developers, Estate Agents and Banks/Building Societies are ably assisted by the ‘Lifestyle Media’, in marketing the dream. There’s no doubt that buying and selling property in the UK can be a minefield, especially for the uninitiated or inexperienced. However that pals into insignificance when you consider the additional pitfalls that can await us in buying abroad. Well over a million Britain’s now own holiday homes abroad. Our love affair with owning ‘a place in the sun’ has never been greater. As ever Spain, France, Italy and Portugal are proving popular. More recently as prices have been pushed up in these countries we’ve looked further a field. To places like Slovenia and Croatia in what was the old Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. You cant beat the Dalmatian coast only don’t dig too deep in the back garden, as mass graves are commonplace and 20,000 bodies are still unaccounted for. They don’t put that in the sales presentation. Recently Latvia, Bulgaria and Romania are being pushed as the next hot, ‘Fly to Buy/Fly to Let’ leading edge locations. When buying abroad its important to recognise that the laws, processes, customs and practice, for the transfer of unencumbered title to land and property, are not the same as in the UK. We hear horror stories, where unsuspecting Brits having bought abroad, only to find themselves with no end of problems, having either been duped or failed to take appropriate precautions. Be it problems with the escritura (title deed) in Spain, Villas built on war expropriated land in Northern Cyprus or inheritance/tax issues in Monrovia. As mentioned earlier with countries like Romania and Bulgaria now being pushed as destinations to buy holiday homes, the term Caveat Emptor has never been more appropriate. If you’re not entirely happy with the reputation for honesty of Estate Agents at home here in the UK, wait till you meet some of the ex Transylvanian Donkey rustlers selling unsuspecting Brits holiday homes in Tulcea and Constanta on the Black Sea! Where next? Ski lodges in Nagorno-Karabakh, just 8 days yak ride from Baku international airport. Or Beach Villas on the Aral’s Sea health Spa, specialising in chemical body scrubs, with all the toxic pollution you can drink. Prices start at 3 million Dram (£15,000), 10% discount if you buy off plan. Legal title guaranteed by The South Caucasus Development Corporation of Kazakhstan All deposits underwritten by the Bank of Chechnya, as advertised on Channel 4 by the regional goodwill ambassador Borat! Don’t miss this ground floor, investment opportunity of a lifetime. Thousands of Brits who have bought in Spain/Cyprus/Dubai are going to lose their shirts. Bulgaria isn’t cheap it only looks cheap relative to the UK. There is no second hand market in Bulgaria. Your costs/problems/ aggravation and stress will all be higher than you could possibly imagine. You wont be able to resell your Bulgarian property as the second hand market does not exist and you will be competing against new build developers offering incentives. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Baz I received exactly the same reply as you It appears that they are unwilling to register, let alone answer some of my questions. Their reply (due to omissions) seems to admit they include prortfolios, annomolies and errors in their base data for the first calculation. Their argument appears to be that the second calc sorts this out. Can the Statos on here read the reply from RM and give an opinion on the folowing. In a post code are eg BH1 RM calculate the average of all different property types eg 'Houses' entered on to the system in the preceeding period (month). At what number (100, 200, 250? lowest 140k highest 1 million) whould some of the annomalies and errors make a material differance to the end result? Or because of their stated methodology would it they be rendered meaningless as RM state. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Shamus there’s a few council blocks just off the quay one is called Nelson and the other Rodney Court. Can’t help thinking of Nelson Mandela Court where Rodney and Del lived in Only Fools and Horses. I viewed the 3 bed budget version (it’s in Compass Point, Castle St) in 1992 it was on for £97,000. Here’s the history of that one:_ 1988 Sold £180,000 1993/4 Sold £ 95,500 2004 For Sale £ 375,000 2005 For sale £ 345,000 2006 For sale £ 325,000 2007 Sold £ 260,000? 29929BlackTuesday Pablo Escobar was a very persuasive man. His technique for getting people to do his bidding (from the lowest street drug dealer to the highest Government official) was. Do what I say and I’ll make you rich (silver). Don’t do as I say and you and your whole family will be killed in the most hideous way (Lead/Bullets). You don’t build the biggest drugs empire in the world without killing over 3000 people. But they say he was nice to animals! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Fact, Poole Quay is a higher value and nicer place to live than Liverpool, Manchester or Leeds city centres. The speculative peak in this area was late 2003 early 2004. The Ripple effect from the South/London puts the North about 2 years behind us in the cycle. As well as the example at the start of this thread, there are many other Luxury, Prestigious, Executive, Architect designed apartments being offered for sale well below the prices paid a couple of years ago. IMHO many of the most expensive apartments sold in the Black pudding and Cotton belt of the North will soon (18 months to 2 yrs) be selling at 35 to 40% below the top prices paid. Anyone got a logical argument to show why this will not happen, especially as the prices up north have risen so far from historical norms? Pablo Silver or Lead?

The LR shows the top price paid in this (new) development was £1.45 million on 18/12/2003. This was off plan speculation. The best flat (duplex penthouse 4x balconies)in the whole development has just come the market at offers in the region of £895k. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-598...pa_n=8&tr_t=buy A stunning appartment and definately worth £700 to £750k. Buy high sell cheap! Soft Landing! Pablo Silver or Lead?

The VI's can't have it both ways they're telling us that the Property Market is heating up, with property selling and price rising, whilst at the same time calling for an interest rate reduction! Are they stupid or in trouble? If the BOE, MPC and Gordon Brown believe Rightmove, Halifax et-al they will have no choice but to raise IR by .25% in the next 3 months. If rates aren't at 5% by the end of the year they've done the wrong thing and the aftermath will be worse for everyone. The tides comming in and Gordon's gona get wet feet. Pablo Silver or Lead?

The recent floods in New Orleans showe thr polarisation of US society. NewOrleans is however a small city. In Florida the big builders enjoy labour cost not seen in Britain for a generation. They build on land that consists of snake infested mosquito breeding, prairie and swamp. Basically property is cheaper than the UK because land is plentiful and their costs are lower. In Real Estate talk, property is never ‘cheap’, its good value for money, a great ground floor investment or an exceptional buying opportunity! During the years 20004/05 Florida Property has increased by 3 to 4 times its long term annual average. All the Real Estate Salesman will tell you this is down purely to demand ‘there are 800 people a day moving to Florida’. I would question the figure of 800 I think for once they’ve underestimated the number. However many arrive as economic migrants figuring, why starve in Lake Providence Louisiana, Coahoma Mississippi or Cotton Plant Arkansas, when for the price of a tank of gas you can move to Florida and rob the rich! Many new Floridian ‘residents’ lead transient existences, moving between $20 a night, roach pit motels and no questions asked Trailer Parks. They wake up in each morning without the price of a crack rock or cup of coffee to get them through the day. They lead Don’t rob Don’t get drunk, existences and sobering up to the reality of their marginalised, hand to mouth lives is to be avoided. There are many millions of people in Florida where the prospect of property ownership will never be an option, even if it looks cheap to us. If the US ecomomy goes pop it will be a mess. Places like Detroit have 20 times the poor down troden populations than New Orleans has, as is common in many rust belt cities. Miami + Orlando where floridas new gun laws alow civilians to turn the place into free fire zones, will not be good places to live. We will see. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Having recently returned form Florida due to missing the quality of life in the Uk. this makes interesting reading. http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll...INESS/603010337 The US sneezes we catch a cold (Bird flu takes hold ditch shares in KFC). Pablo Silver or Lead?

Marlowtech I have no strong VI in prices going Up or Down. The Market ‘Will Out’. I am however a bull turned bear. There are just too many pent up risk factors/indicators (all covered on this forum) pushing against the ‘dam wall’ of current house price sustainability. Property in the south west dropping 15% in two years could be a best case scenario, depending on which side people are coming from! I’ve been a few things in my time CSE maths failure, Waiter, Washer Up, Royal Marine, Estate Agent (sorry) and European Sales Director but to be likened to an accountant! I’ll have to take all my grey suites down to the charity shop and call in a lifestyle consultant. In the end i'm sure you'll make the right decision for the right reasons, good luck. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Marlowtech Considering buying a holiday home, note to self, Engage Brain![/u] If the saying ‘that the first casualty of war is the truth’ is a truism, then ‘the first casualty of buying a holiday home is often basic common sense’. We are a nation seemingly obsessed with property and property prices. Witness the rash of TV programs imploring us to relocate, trade up, buy to let and do up to sell. In the five last five years property prices in Britain have increased dramatically and a whole industry has sprung up encouraging us to release equity and buy abroad. The vested interests (VI) such as the Developers, Estate Agents and Banks/Building Societies are ably assisted by the ‘Lifestyle Media’, in marketing the dream. So what happens when we buy a holiday property? Is it a home or an investment? It’s not really a home, or more correctly our home, as we don’t live there, we just visit occasionally. However due to the cost and commitment of owning a holiday property, we have to view it in investment terms. On the other hand we shouldnt view holiday properties purely as an investment though, as we are going to spend a fair proportion of our limited but highly valued, family holiday time there. So a holiday property is neither a family home in the true sense, or a pure investment, only to be judged on the financials. A second property bought as a holiday retreat is in reality a bit of both. A home away from home and part of our long term investment strategy, in other words, a compromise! There is no doubt in my mind when we’re buying a holiday property, the line between emotional ‘home buying’ and hard headed ‘investment analysis’ becomes blurred. The former always triumphs over the later as we metaphorically chase our rose tinted dream and in sum cases, Rose gardened cottage. Once we’ve found a holiday property, the contracts have been exchanged and our Solicitor rings to say we’ve completed, the honeymoon period appears all too brief. Previously caught up in the full flush and thrill of the chase, bask awhile in the afterglow, for it does not last long. The fact that we may have let our heart rule, in the run up to buying our holiday property, soon becomes apparent with the arrival of the first set of bills. Mortgage, insurance, council tax, utilities, appliances, furnishings, service charges, the list is almost endless. Having let our heart rule up to now, we re-engage our heads and focus on the investment side of the equation. The dying embers of the honeymoon period are finally extinguished when a sober assessment of the business case you put together on the back of a napkin in a beer garden, doesn’t now seem quite so robust. Its human nature that if we really want something we tend to emphasise the positives. This is to convince those around us and indeed ourselves that we’re doing the right thing, for the right reasons. It is easy to play down any negatives that don’t help support your case. If you want to be convinced of something, you can be pretty persuasive. We generally underestimate the costs that go along with ownership of a holiday home and over estimate the revenue, especially on short term holiday lets of a week or two, its easy to grossly underestimate the costs. These costs come in the form of our time and the direct costs associated with the property being used on a short term, high turnover basis. Estate Agents and Developers Sales staff can play a big part in this. Ask them questions about running costs and rather than be evasive, they will tell you exactly what you want to hear. The only lies they tell, may be by omission but they will spin everything their way. Ask them about income from both long and short term lets and they will be bullish, confirming your own thoughts. Beware of sales people bearing good news. Do not take anything you’re told at face value, cross check and always test assumptions (especially your own). The key rules of the property buying game you need to remember are, firstly Caveat Emptor or Buyer Beware! The second rule is if the deal seems too good to be true it usually is and the third and final rule is, ensure you take independent ‘subject matter expert’ advice on legal, value/survey and financial matters. Both Estate Agents and Developers will offer you a ‘one stop shop’, for a property, legal work, survey and mortgage. It’s too cosy and they will all have a vested financial interest in you buying and therefore perhaps not be as diligent as you my like. Just a few thoughts (oh and you will be able to get one for £80 to 100k cheaper in 18 months to two years). Pablo Silver or Lead?

15. Inflation up as the price of flat screen TV's stops falling due to demand from the new consummer class in India/China! Pablo Silver or Lead?

So the Midlands and the north have reached Surrey prices (and inexperianced mugs are paying them), oh dear it will all end in tears. Pablo Silver or Lead?

I'm sure sharp BTL investors will factor in the free Pi$$ stained mattress when bidding against each other. Pablo Silver or Lead?

I spoke with Rightmove for the third time, today. They were most helpful. However as the discussion became more focused on how they filter their base data and how they actually calculate their figures (as opposed to what they state they do in their contradictory written method statements) I was asked to put my questions in writing. This I did. I enclose below the last page of my 4 page submission to them. ________________________________________ I have the following questions:- 1. In your stated methodology prior to September 05 how did you define property that was atypical? 2. In your stated methodology prior to September 05 having defined property that was atypical, what was the process to remove them from the base data before calculating the average? 3. Is the Rightmove House Price Index Methodology that was emailed to me the current method used for your calculations and when was it adopted? 4. Please list any changes made to your methodology used for calculating your House Price Indices since their inception? In conclusion It could be perceived that it’s a lack of quality control over the base data entry, a weak/unsophisticated data filter/validation process (before the first average/mean is calculated), that has lead Rightmove’s credibility being brought into question. As all the issues I have raised here, have been in the public domain for some time (as displayed on your web site, rightmove.co.uk), it’s important to address them in an open and transparent way. To that end I ask that you make available the historical base data sets with which you’ve calculated your House Price Indices. This will allow independent verification that your results can be replicated, or failing that be restated accurately. At this crucial time, your organisation has everything to gain by being open and transparent. I look forward to your detailed response. Yours sincerely 4 _______________________________ I feel that this can be resolved quickly and to everyone’s satisfaction. I’m confident that Righmove will conclude that to do so is in their best interest. I will keep you informed of their response. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Here is a revised draft of my letter. The aim is to get Rightmove to be open about the way they've arrived at their figures, no more no less. We need to keep this simple and hold them to account. Comment/typos on the draft, please let me know. The request, in the conclusion (last 3 paras) are key. Rightmove can't reasonably refuse to make available the historical base data and any changes in their methodology, unless they are concerned about what the regulator/market may find. It's within their power to knock this issue on the head. ________________________ In the light of your forthcoming floatation, both the statements of your senior management and the house price indices you place in the public domain have come under increased scrutiny. This is entirely proper, as it is important that all your stakeholders, be they existing shareholders, employees, customers, end users (buyers and sellers) and most importantly potential new shareholders, have absolute confidence in the accuracy of what you are saying and publishing. It has become apparent that the process you have in place for the capture, validation, methodology for analysis and interpretation of property (asking) price data is severely flawed. The flaws in the system are as follows: Base Data Entry The base data (property instruction sales information which is collected and inputted at subscribing Estate Agency Branches) is corrupted with inaccuracies and anomalies. The inaccuracies and anomalies that currently corrupt your base data, appear to fall into four categories. 1. The Rightmove property instruction sales upload template is being used by your subscribing Branches to advertise other services (recruitment, mortgage services etc), as opposed to individual properties for sale. This appears to require the entry of a ‘Dummy’ price: Example; Osborne’s of Wareham advertising their commission rates, using a price of £999,999 for a 1 bed house. 2. Groups of Properties lumped together as one entry: Example; Portfolios such as14 properties, comprising of 40 flats/bedsits in Reading listed for sale on Rightmove as a single house or flat at £4,730,000). 3. High value properties that have multiple listings: Example; 8 bed detached in Bearsted, Maidstone, listed on Rightmove 5 x at £1,950,000 and 1 x at £1,350,000. 4. Properties that are massively over priced: Example; 2 bed maisonette in Greenhithe, listed for sale on Rightmove at £7,604,168. Example; 3 bed semi detached house in Yate, Bristol, listed for sale on Rightmove at £110,120,000. These examples are not isolated or even represent the most extreme errors on your web site. As at February 06, there were hundreds and possibly thousands of other errors displayed and therefore by definition corrupting the base data. I recently contacted your organisation to establish if Righmove were aware of the problems with your base data as listed above. With regards to (1) your representative confirmed that Rightmove was unaware of any subscribing Estate Agency Branch using/abusing the system for anything other than its proper intended purpose. That being the bona-fide entry, of various property types. With regards to (2) your representative confirmed that Righmove was unaware that whole portfolios of properties were being entered as one house or flat instead of commercial property type. With regards to (3) the multiple listings of the same high value properties. Your representative said that Rightmove had no way of detecting or filtering these out of the base data. With regards to (4) your representative stated that Rightmove did not believe that this was serious issue for you and referred me to your document, entitled ‘Rightmove House Price Index Methodology’, which states: “The asking price is as displayed on the Rightmove site. Each estate agent listing the property is subject to the requirements of the Property Misdescriptions Act which include that the price quoted accurately reflects the asking price as agreed with the vendor”. I must say that for your organisations to claim to be unaware of both the volume value and nature of the inaccuracies/anomalies being entered onto your data base to be frankly, at best complacent and at worst not credible. Especially, as the inaccuracies/anomalies are visible to even the most casual user of your web site. Methodology of Calculating/Deriving Average Asking Prices Your representative stated that your lack of quality control of the base data would not materially impact on your results because you use the following methodology (as stated in your document Rightmove House Price Index Methodology). “First, the average (mean) price for each property type in each postcode area is calculated. From this, the standard deviation is then calculated for the properties in each of the postcode areas. Properties which are more than three standard deviations above the average or below the average (mean) price, are excluded as they may be unrepresentative. The revised average price for each property type in each postcode area is then calculated based on the remaining properties (i.e. those within three standard deviations).” Following your methodology:- “First, the average (mean) price for each property type in each postcode area is calculated. (Using the very base data containing all the inaccurate/anomalistic entries as highlight above). “From this, the standard deviation is then calculated for the properties in each of the postcode areas.” (Using the very base data containing all the inaccurate/anomalistic entries). Having calculated the first average/mean without first filtering/validating the base data to remove all the inaccurate/anomalistic entries, leads to this first average/mean being higher (stretching the “inclusion window” along the upper tail of the distribution) than would have been the case if your base data was either uncorrupted or cleaned. “Properties which are more than three standard deviations above the average or below the average (mean) price, are excluded as they may be unrepresentative. The revised average price for each property type in each postcode area is then calculated based on the remaining properties (i.e. those within three standard deviations).” This first average/mean (which is artificially high) is then used as the point of reference from which an upper and lower limit are derived, being 3 standard deviations either side of this average/mean. This leads to an upper and lower limit banding which is too high in the first place, hence the properties used within the second calculation will be based on higher values which shouldn't be there, and exclude lower values which should. In conclusion It could be perceived that a lack of quality control over the base data entry, a weak/unsophisticated data filter/validation process (before the first average/mean is calculated) and a Management seemingly more focused on attaining hyperbolic headlines ahead of flotation than operational detail; have lead to Rightmove’s credibility being brought into question. As all the issues I have raised here, have been in the public domain for some time (as displayed on your web site, rightmove.co.uk), it may be appropriate to address them in an open and transparent way. To that end I ask that you make available the historical base data sets with which you’ve calculated your House Price Indices and any material changes you have made to your stated methodology, thus allowing an independent audit. This will allow independent verification that your results can be replicated or failing that be restated accurately. At this crucial time, your organisation has everything to gain by being open and transparent. I look forward to you detailed response. ________________ Pablo Silver or Lead? PS. fdk posted "Someone mentioned on this site before, that Rightmove used to have a footnote which stated that properties in excess of £1m were excluded from all calculations. This suggests that back then, these recent findings may not have been an issue. Can anyone recall exactly when they removed this footnote from their methodology. Could it have been done on purpose as part of the floatation strategy ?" Anyone worked out when this was removed?