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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by rantnrave

  1. If EAs aren't getting sales fees from buyers, then they're going to need a source of income from somewhere. Seems fair enough to take that from unrealistic sellers who are denying them the chance to make sales. Survival of the fittest really.
  2. Needs to be better thought through by whoever designed it. I ticked boxes saying I was renting and have no plans to change. A few questions later it asked me why I was planning to buy a property in the next 12 months! I'd just indicated that I thought prices were going to fall over 10% next year and that it was a bad time to buy!!!
  3. I've had the opportunity to live in both Japan and Germany for a couple of years. Every country has positives and negatives. Cost of eating out in Japan was much lower than the UK, which I loved. Healthcare and school fees for the kids are not provided through taxes though (one reason why the birth rate over there is so low). Language is a bummer to learn (three alphabets, one of 20,000 characters!). Mrs rantnrave also had to pretty much end her employment contract any time we wanted to take a holiday! Still, it's very safe over there with squeaky clean streets. Young people have no attitude issues and alcohol related problems are virtually none. The police still think any non-Japanese person is up to no good however and that can lead to a lot ot harrasment for foreigners. The government is unbelievably moribund and inept. Germany was interesting. Definitely a higher standard of living than the UK. People work hard but holidays are very much a priority. Government benefit system is unbelievably generous too. Again, less alcohol related problems. However, life is very regimented. In our apartment block we had rotas for cleaning the steps, outside bins, sweeping snow in winter. Get these wrong and your life is made miserable. This structure extends to society where systems dominate everything and if you have a problem that doesn't fit into the structure then everything grinds to a halt. Customer service is absolutely appalling... Here in Blighty, I reckon people are more flexible and accommodating than other places. There's an underlying sense of ironic humour to most things which I missed overseas. As pointed out on this forum, house prices are obscene though. I am serious when I say that most UK housing is on a similar cost level to inner Tokyo! The complete comparison cant be made though because houses over there are constructed very differently and gardens are non-existent in places. So, yes, the grass is always greener...
  4. Realistically, are we looking at a positive quarterly figure and a negative MoM? If so, I can guess which one MSM will focus on. Any offers for the adjectives used to avoid the word 'crash' - easing, repricing, adjusting to the economic climate etc etc?
  5. Past my bedtime I"m afraid... I do remember being online and making breakfast at 7am when last month's Halifax figures were released... Is it definitely midnight?
  6. Guess who is cheering this news on in the comments... GREAT HEADLINES. 29.09.10, 12:40am Only a handful of people want house prices to fall. The majority of working people will greet this latest news with a happy face this morning. I think it shows once and for all that the UK is back on track. Lets hope they continue to rise. • Posted by: Sibley •
  7. To a certain extent I agree. Movements of +/- 0.3% month by month are hardly going to result in mass outbreaks of panic. However, when some of these indices show YoY going negative, then it will be picked up by MSM and given extensive coverage. Hopefully with several indices using different methods and timescales to calculate the same basic fact, by Christmas there will be a steady stream of 'house prices now lower than a year ago' stories.
  8. Isn't this survey the king of lagging though? Is the YoY falling? No sign of it being picked up on MSM websites (yet).
  9. Not that it helps you much, but I need to move my money out of Citibank later this month and now have a better insight of how (not) to go about it. Actually, they wrote to me to say the one year bonus rate was nearly up - strange business model - telling me effectively to move my cash to another bank, which is just what I'll do.
  10. Weren't we at this stage 18 months or so ago? I remember when one of these two first started reporting rises at the beginning of the bear trap / dead cat bounce. We scoffed at their figures then, but turned out (annoyingly) that they were right... I believe we'll only be locked in for a fall once the YoY turns negative.
  11. Page 2 of the Money Section (buried in the boxed text unfortunately) contains this little nugget: Over three years shares are down 10.4% while house prices have fallen 15.9% In the interest of balance, the figures quoted for one year is +4.6% and five years is +1.3%, which are still poor rates of return. Dunno if these are a reflection of real or nominal prices though. The biggie, at the bottom of this box, says house prices are up a whopping 98% over the last ten years
  12. You'd imagine you couldn't miss something like that on the streetview, but, erm... where's it gone!?!
  13. I agree wholehertedly with these comments BUT am concerned that prices will stabilise because IRs are still so low. There are many more houses out there for sale (visible in my area from the increase in EA boards) but few priced reasonably. Now HIPs have gone, lots of 'sellers' are testing 2007 prices in the knowledge that they don't have to sell if they don't like the offers they receive. The rise in prices earlier this year was caused by people refusing to sell below peak and I dont see that much has changed since then to alter that. Yes unemployment will rise and may hit 10%. That's still leaves 90% of people who wont be affected. A rise in interest rates to much above 3% is going to affect many more who have bought in the last few years, but I don't see that any time soon. The whole system seems stacked against anything but a very gradual glide down in real terms over the next five years.
  14. And here the (predictable) reply comes... Thanks for your email. We don’t always receive the full set of figures from every lender every month so occasionally they are adjusted to reflect this. Once a quarter, when we do get the full figures we update them with the more accurate figures. I hope this helps. Kind regards Jayne Jayne Chichester Press Officer Council of Mortgage Lenders Tel: 020 7438 8922 Website: www.cml.org.uk twitter: www.twitter.com/cmlpressoffice
  15. I've dropped the three names at the bottom of the page an email, casually asking if they could explain the difference. Will post any reply I get!
  16. So has the abolishing of HIPs simply brought along a bunch of j*rks who wouldn't have put their house on the market but are now doing so with no regard to the economic rationale for lower prices?
  17. Anyone else spot this in the report? Lenders and the government must perform a financial balancing act to ensure supply does not begin to pull away from demand. Why? Also thought there was supposed to be a lack of supply overall out there?
  18. What the...? All I can say is that they must have surveyed the prices of lego houses for sale in Toys R Us to come up with a figure like that!
  19. So far they seem to be stating the blindingly obvious (interest rates can only go up and they will at some point). Even more concerning is how the sheeple need this stuff explained to them!
  20. I see that the Halifax survey for August house prices has now been delayed again until Wednesday or Thursday (it was supposed to be out Monday 6th). Wonder what's causing the delay? Do they have something to hide perhaps???
  21. Given that Halifax posted a 0.6% rise in July, a 1.5% fall in August would be a real decline, in their terms, of 0.9% - exactly what the Nationwide came out with. That 0.6% rise they quoted for July annoyingly helped many media commentators paint a mixed picture. Let's hope for a clearer signal (downwards!) this time. Good news that the Nationwide and Halifax figures weren't out on consecutive days. Assuming Halifax shows a fall, that would be another round of much needed reality check coverage in the media!
  22. Has any just been following the discussion on Radio 2 about the housing market's current woes, reasons why sellers are refusing to lower prices etc? Tried my best to hear it over lunch (13.40 ish), but too many work distractions. Should be on the iplayer later on whatever show finished at 2pm
  23. Definitely far more For Sale signs to be seen out there. At the same time, I pass a dozen new builds once a week or so that are have for the most remained unsold since mid 2008. Seems to be a stalemate out there, with buyers refusing to buy at current prices and sellers unwilling to reduce their property's price. Wonder how long this stand-off can go on?
  24. What is it going to take to change people's perceptions? The best part of a decade's media coverage and EA hype have implanted the view that ever increasing house prices are a good thing and prices will only go up. Convincing people that their house is worth less than a couple of years ago seems impossible. I know a lot of intelligent folk who have jumped into the BTL market with no concept of how much the interest on a mortgage really is, the costs of maintenance etc. People really do seem to be thinking very short-term about the 25 year loan they've taken out. There's complete denial out there about potential interest rate rises. Sentiment for squeezed out FTBs is minimal, because everyone is focused on getting the highest price for their property. There are a few parents out there who are looking at their kids' position and starting to think that prices are too high, but that's it. My concern is that if prices do start to fall quickly, as 18 months ago, sellers will quickly retreat again resulting in a lack of supply pushing up prices. Time will tell.
  25. The new to market bar certainly doesn't back up the idea that ever increasing numbers are rushing to sell. Instead, Fool's Gold is right about stuff hanging around. Wonder why that might be
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