Levy process

This thread is silly.

Why is the assumption that in a future of collapsing pound and price inflation, that there will not be wage inflation? If the downward pressure on wages is coming from overseas, and yet out currency is devaluing, doesn't it depend how fast the devaluation is? I mean, if the is devaluing relative to the currencies of the competitor countries, all other things being equal, that means wages inflate in the UK currency, right?

That is certainly the way I think of it. But really in a way one doesn't have any savings until one has dealt with paying for essentials for the rest of one's life. So if one has a mortgage, then that has to be subtracted. Also if one has no property but rents, one has to subtract the life long cost of renting. Then subtract off other essential costs, food, taxes etc. Anything left after that is what I would call actual savings. So having paid off a mortgage, at say age 50, one has a big burden removed from the task of building up real savings.

What is there to say? Recession here we come. Let's just make sure we remind people of how they didn't listen when it was forecast on here years ago, and that the longer they delayed it, the worse it would be. Now it is worse.

I think it is simply a matter that it is game over for house sales.

RUMBLE

GAME ON

Maybe just remortgaging?

Check it out for yourself, but as I understand it the average interest rate since the Bank of England was created is 5%. So 5.5% is slightly high.

There's a lot of false modesty on this thread.

What exactly was irresponsible about Tory macro economic policy?

I'm imagining a future, post economic collapse, where people only speak in Latin.

Small state, income taxes at 10%, virtually no public sector, leave people to spend their own money as they see fit. It's the only way to avoid ruin for the country.

That, and Game On.

"a depression", or just "depression"?

This sort of tired old apocalyptic tripe really belongs in a different forum. What you are saying is nothing other than stupid rot. Presumably you've got some sort of allotment and are harbouring some strange survivalist fantasies about prospering when others starve. Get a life buddy. It ain't gonna happen.

Well, it will be the first thing in Scotland that has been paid for by a tax increase in Scotland. About time. And get lost with your Daily Mail jibes. There's plenty of perfectly reasons for feeling aggrieved about the way Scotland is subsidised by English taxes without having anything to do with the likes of a Daily Mail reader. And please, no nonsense about Scottish oil. I haven't met one Scot who makes a case for what they think is good about Scotland in terms of a geological accident combined with some medieval national boundary freak results and intractable border laws. If they did, I doubt anyone would think it particularly admirable. And I'm Scottish.

I think there are a lot of rather immature and simple minded views being expressed in this thread. I don't think anyone should want any sort of vengeance via house price collapse against ordinary families, no matter how silly they were to buy into an overheated market. I don't think many would seriously argue that they should be financially bailed out either though, given the moral hazard. I think most would be hard pressed to present an argument why BTL investors, second home owners, speculators of any kind don't deserve what's coming, as that's the risk one takes when making an investment decision. I think all those screaming for compassion should wake up and get a grip on what use "compassion" really is, if they aren't actually going to hand over some cash to relieve those in need. What stretched families will want is money to pay the mortgage. All the compassion in the world is worth very little in practical terms, which is all these people will care about. The world doesn't actually give a damn whether you are expressing compassion or not, and to think it does is to overestimate the utter insignificance of the worth of your "feelings" which you have from your armchair. I think a lot of tosh is talked about compassion. Grow up.

I like many have no wish to see families who only wanted a first home punished by the crash. Indeed, that in itself is one of the reasons I was so angry about the forces that drove prices to bubble levels. If a crash that only affected BTL investors could be engineered, I'd support it. But sadly that's not possible. But I have to ask, there are so many voices nowadays in the media, the government and all around us in our society calling for "compassion" for this or that problem. What exactly is compassion worth if it is not backed by action? And what action would you have people instigate in this case? Give those families affected a hand out? Bail them out? No. Utter moral hazard lies that way. Many on here showed a genuine compassion in their wish that something was done about the forces that allowed HPI to occur in the first place. Now that it has happened, and the crash that follows any bubble is probably upon us, there's nothing more to be done. In my view calls for compassion are very often just empty words, made when the point at which the possibility for real remedial action is long past, and as such, are fairly pointless. I think often peoples' "compassion" is nothing more than a conscience salving expression of empathy, which serves no purpose but to make the people involved feel somehow better about themselves. While I will take no pleasure whatsoever in the financial destruction of innocent families, I'm afraid I won't be joining in yet another pointless fest of teeth gnashing, wailing and wearing of sack cloth, so popular in today's culture.

Interesting. Any idea what the views of these people were on the credit crunch before it happened? What I'm getting at is, did they have any suspicion that a lot of assets were going to suddenly drop in value because the reality of a load of ropey US house loans hit home, and that a lot of big banks were going to have to write off a lot of losses? If they didn't have any good predictions on that, what would you say that implies about the power of their awesome predictions about London house prices?

Sorry, I was making a joke. I like when people say "going forward" as if they are being careful to rule out the possibility of going backwards. As in "the business will focus effort on quality, going forward". I.e. we are being careful not to suggest that our action plan covers venturing into the past via some sort of advanced time travel technology. I'll get my coat.

And the cows get fak all.

LOL!

Yep. There should be another article in that paper too: "In other news, all lottery cards and games have been withdrawn forever, after the discovery that participants couldn't understand basic probability theory and elementary financial planning".

... and the worst won't be able to work out the fact that they are actually 30.