FTBagain

DOH! No I hadn't . Would that most like make them professionals? BTLers per chance

Lol Been a very boring day, thanks for that and yup, one born every minute.

Yeh! but a lot of the news speculative buying is on the back of rather dodgy interest only deals, that Mr Greenspan has gone on record as saying he dosn't like. Some of the deals sound even worse than the deals you can get over here If these account for the other 25% of mortgages then the Fed has a problem. If the Fed can control their bubble then we'll only catch a cold, if they cann't we'll get Pneumonia and die .

Jaffa, Thanks that one wnet into the favourites.

May be they are just being nosey.

Absolutely agree with munimula, You could always offer 30% below the asking price and see what happens. Most sellers will work in a 5 to 10% bargining margin so if they accept 30% you're 20% ahead of the game. But check out the local prices. Sadly if we do go into a recession we are all at risk. At times like these it is as well not to let the heart rule are minds, even if we do find the property of our dreams, and if it ain't the property of your dreams, WALK! Good luck.

It has just occured to me, as I wait for the news of the latest increase in US base rate (sad I know, just look at what wanting a house has done to me! ), that the Fed may have got in a little ahead of the house price cycle than the BoE. If they have they may yet be able to limit the damage of a US HPC. If so this would likely encourage them to keep going with their rate rises. Bad news for us as we will need to keep about 1.5% ahead of US rates. So the Fed could get lucky with their own problem, but boy we could really catch a cold!!

I used The HBOS figures for a graph and the number for May is 3.2% any which way I looked at it using their published spreadsheet data. I think they must of revised their figures mid-month because their headline figure is still reported everywhere as 5.7%. I'll be watching there data for June very closely.

I read this at work, but could not comment until I got home (firewall), anyway you have said just what I was going to say. I hope so! He deserves to get sent back to economics school.

WOW! nice house and it's STC Wish I'd seen it earlier! Unfortunately i actually have to work for a living

Just checked the currancy markets on the BBC. The Pound dropped against every currancy quoted! Inflation will be imported if this carries on much longer and it can. The Fed will raise the US base rate in about a hour or so giving the MPC very little room to move. They're stuffed and so are we. It will could get very messy. I too remember the late 1970's and I would not recommend it to anyone. Rising unemployment heading toward 3m, on a much smaller workforce, inflation around 20%, and interests heading in a similar direction. The difference is back then the 'never, never' was treated with contempt and people tried to save against a rainy day, not borrow!! I truely hope it does not get that bad, but sooner or later the debt gets repaid or defaulted. Either is good!

No, not if they've got two or more years fixed rate. But they'll be bricking it as the equity drains away over the next Ten years! Of course, when the fixed rate period is up.......

Bagehot, Know how you feel. It is a slow old process. But I reckon you will see some real changes in sentiment in the next two or three months, which will take us to Sept anyway. If we are not provided right by then, then I wish you the best of luck. Drive the hardest bargin you can.

You have to wonder These people really believe what they say. I have seen this artical refered to elsewhere and I can only think that they have some theoretical model with some really daft assumptions built into it. Result rubbish. As an analyst / scientist myself this kind of output really makes me mad :angry: . Ignore it! Has a gold mine been found in South Cheshire to warrant such special economic behaviour! :angry: Sorry got to stop my blood pressure is getting dangerously high. :angry: :angry:

Please don't let that stop you! Beside you probably know more about housing than some of those who claim to be experts!

Luv it! Thanks and welcome!

I stopped reading when I got to: "my financial astuteness in shifting my £2,000 savings from an account paying 2.70 per cent interest to one paying 2.87." I just opened a saveings account with a miserly >5%, so you get some idea just how good he is!

I remember reading on here a couple of weeks ago that UK IR tend to stay at least 1.5% above US rates, or we import inflation via the old Pound falling against the Dollar. Given the news reported on the BBC about US growth and the likelihood of another 25bpp in their rates and you have another reason for the UK rates to go up! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4634255.stm Not looking good for the bulls' IR cut is it!

Could do. I wondered whether it was simple sentiment along the lines of; Home owner; "I live in a rich city, therefore I am rich (house is worth a bomb!). I know I'll MEW and have some fun in those nice bars in the city." Buyer; "Must get on the market, mummy, daddy can you help!" Then, of course the market drives in to a brick wall, and; Home owner; "Oh no! My house is mortgaged up to the hilt, must stop spending!" Buyer; " I'll just wait and see." But things get back to normal as the spring bouce kicks in; Home owner; "Oh! False alarm, down the bar we go." Buyer; "Sod it cann't wait for the rest of my life. " However, spring bounce comes to pretty much nothing; Buyer; "Na! I'm pullin' out. Not paying that much for that heap!" Home owner, as chains collapse; "Oops, now how was I going to pay the bills?? " Just a light hearted idea of how it might work, but who knows or cares for that matter, just so long at it does FTBagain

For what’s it worth I think the confusing data means more sitting on hands by the MPC. As many have stated on this forum the data is very contradictory at the moment and an unadvised move on the IR could trigger the very thing the MPC is trying to counter at the time (inflation / HPC). They are on a knife edge of their own (or is that the Feds) making. Looking back at the inflation report for last month, a fall in fuel cost helped to counter inflation in food. Now fuel is on the up and if last year is anything to go on it is going down no time soon. So unless something else is falling then the ‘up risks’ must be close to over coming the 'down risks' driving up inflation. Again hard to call but flat or small rise in inflation is my best guess for the next figures, followed by no more talk of an IR cut. Just my take. FTBagain

Yeh! Absolutely, any honest comment on the market on TV can only help our cause. FTBagain

vicster, It sounds very much like you are in a similar situation as I am, as Mrs FTBagain is pushing very hard to buy our own place! Anyway, here is the graph, utilising Hometrack data. It shows Bath % falls relative to the national picture. As I said previously it looks like Bath rises faster and FALLS faster than the national average. Given your points on the local economy it is difficult to explain, but hay if it continues, who cares! Weighted Change = Bath Change Enjoy FTBagain

It occured to me that as the new bankruptcy laws are actually increasing the rate of bankruptcies amoungst the general public, particularly the younger population, that this could feed across into home owners. If you think about it, someone getts in too deap so they declare themselves bankrupt and two years? later they are in the clear. Does this apply to home owners? Does the home account as an asset to be set against the bad debts. If it does then we may well see repos rising faster than we might have otherwise thought. It might actually pay to go bankrupt, loose the house and start out afresh in two years time! Thoughts? TFBagain

vicster, The new graph I am putting together indicates that Bath prices not only rise faster than the national rate, but they also fall faster! . Also, the local economy could get very hard hit if people start cutting back on nights out and holidays etc. That would start to drive up the need to sell. We have been looking around including some of the outlining villages, and one house we looked at has dropped nearly £30k because they had been relocated to Reading (poor sod's) by work. It is a good example of how forced selling can develop even without an economic slow down, all be it slowly. Given the local job losses (Paulton Print works and the cellophane factory in Bridgwater) the local economy is suffering. So forced selling will start to increase. Very sad for those who are on the wrong side of it all, but hope for us. Cheers FTBagain

Hi, I've been playing the data again and have added the Rightmove data to the Jan 2003 to the present day graph. The level of aggreement with the Nationwide data is astonishing, particularly over the last few months. What this means, of course, is that further reductions in the Nationwide YOY figures is highly likely because Rightmove measure their data right at the beginning of the process. So more falls on the way One strange thing, however, is that the Nationwide data gives a number of 3.2% growth YOY for May, however, their headline data says 5.7% . I was using their NSA data, but got the same figure when I use the SA data. Strange. Nevermind the trend is what is all important, unless it is going against you of course . I have the graph in Word and JPEG format. Hope the upload works. Enjoy FTBagain Nation_Right___Prices_Changes_May_June.doc Nation_Right___Prices_Changes_May_June.doc