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House Price Crash Forum


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About paranoidmick

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  1. I think you'll find that most people in UK "dont believe" Brown's/ONS "inflation figures" I'm not so sure the sheeple believe what they want to believe but all the things that matter to my cost of lkiving have gone up nearer 7% than 2% and i have received less than 3% pa increase in wages over past 4 years. Much of that sems to have been eaten away in stealth taxes. Any increase has to be halved because of taxes, pension contributions National Insurance etc. To me gas, electric, council tax, petrol have gone up whilst presumably DVD recorders and TVs from China have not. I suppose thats where a 2% inflation figure comes from but it is a complete joke. Wake up sheeple and smell the coffee :angry:
  2. I hate this country, the people are jerks, the cost of living is riduculous, the weather is crap, the roads are full, and public services are being destroyed. If I didn't have to have wait for my partner to qualify, I'd have left by now. It is sad, but that opinion of our UK is widespread. I have taken the decision to sell and have a place in central France where: The people are (contarry to popular british belief, friendly and helpful, as long as you try some conversation), The cost of living is far lower, (everything grows so a little self sufficiency is on the cards) The weather is great, shoort sharp winters for a roaring fire anbd seasons and long balmy summers The Roads are a joy to drive on Public services are very good (again ciontrary to British opinion -give me a FRench hospital everyt time compared with NHS We couldnt wait for my retireemnt so sold and rent over here, mortgage free over there and never been happier. Some of the bulls mock us STRs as hawks wishing for a HP collapse and waiting with greed to be financial vultures. Not for me, i am happier now not chasing the buck than i ever was, and my interest in this site is to confirm what i promised my other half would happen a seriou HPC. Ironically she doesnt care now either, there are other things in life, it is not a dress rehersal, you can take the UK and stick it where the sun dont shine, er thats the UK isn't it?
  3. How do so called experts get away with writing this interlectually devoid and economically ridiculous tripe? This is all complete nonsense. By picking France as a place with a greater chance of crash than the uk, it just is totally and utterly absurd. I bought a large home central France in a half an acre, in coutryside but close to amenities for less than £120,000. It would not be deemed a FTB property in France but FTBs cant buy a studio flat near to where i currently rent in the UK. How, in a country that rigourously checks income, (No buy to Lie there) to check that disposable income, not earnings, is sufficient to service the mortgage, can there be a risk of a HPC no mind a greater risk than the UK where lending has been orresponsible at best and criminal at worst. The UK market is in free fall and the VIs do not want the sheeple to know. The anecdotal back up is there and anyone considering this twaddle as factual and reliable, open your eyes........ There are now 4 houses for sale within 250 meters of my rental place. Three are brand new and have been ready for sale for almost a year, one has been up for 7 months. Tell the developer and the private owner that prices are going up and they would laugh in your face.
  4. As an average Joe poster as opposed to many of you intelligent academic types, i seek some rationale to support my theory that Nationwides success is not on the back of a booming house market. Since not a lot is selling, time to sell what does is (or must feel like) infinity for sellers, hidden price drops to get whatsales there are etc, this does not add up. The theory what i have (as monty python would say) is that its all debt consolidation, building up to big trouble. Do there figures braek down to show this? Or am i just being paranoid?
  5. Relative STR toemmigrate and things didn't work oyut visa wise. Now decided to stay in UK. Problem is relative tells me that "prices in Burnham have not stopped rising, nothing stays on market long and even crap houses are more than they can afford" Where i am prices still look high in property pages of local rags but (see Aylesbury topic) nothing is selling unless considerably unfder the original silly sales figure, or some muppet has been watching Krusty and Phil too much (IMHO) So anyone actually know what is happening in Burham, if it is bucking a seemingly obvious National trend? I weould love to give my relative some factual reality on that area as depression is setting in . i think that recession is about to set it and therefore am not too worried unless they get panicky and mortgage themselves silly.
  6. Why bother? Its so behind reality it doesnt actually give current information. Whatever you are trying to hide will be ancient history by the time that someone can see it! Take a small (and i mean small in every sense) development in Berkhamsted, Herts. Three pokey terraced "town houses" sold at the end of last year. They were up for £425000 (expensive place where "prices never fall". so i am told by the affluent residents, who are imune to any economic changes because "its Berkhamsted". You cannot find out what all three actually sold for, on Nethousprices.com, but they did. Now for whatever reason, (furniture too big, unemployment, business gone under, mortgage more than they thought, who knows), the middle one is advertised at £375,000 on property section of local paper. Nethousprices.com doesnt indicate the fall in value ie the house price crash that is in progress. Why is it that i can see a crash but Berkhamsted residents cant? Even if it was purchased for, let's say £400,000 in December there was almost certainly a deal, stamp duty paid, solicitors refunded etc etc by developer(reduced costs which wont appear on nethousprices.com) The current seller surely will have to take a big, big loss. They aint going to get the asking price. But if we wait for 2 years and look on Nethousp[ices we might find out. Its as much use as a chocolate fireguard! The HPC? Its really on, the believers were right, and the sheeple they shall inherit the debt caused by their own greed and stuipidity........or am i just being paranoid?
  7. Well its only an advert for greenhouses ....................but does it not say something about how the term House price crash is becoming accepted in everyday language?
  8. "Look into my eyes , not around the eyes, look into my eyes, when i click my fingers you will think that House prices are rising" That must be it pure VI spin hypnosis on the masses. I rememer being a young PC standing facing some very pleasant (used to give them my packed lunch) miners at the time of the miners strike. Whilst they read the front page of 'the Miner' papare with headlines to the effect that No Coal is moving in Nottinghamshire and an article that accused the govt of using library pictures on news broadcasts, behind them and clearly visible was a train pavcked with coal makingh its way from the colliery. Scargill said it so it must be true. They believed what they wanted to believe. I find an analgy between that blind faityh in a man with a hypnotic oratory ability to the sheeple faith in VI spin. Anyone who is getting nervous, thinking about commiting themselves to financial suicide by buying now, look around you see the truth. The anecdotes on this sight are the reality of the situation. Mine for the day, is that 3 brand new houses sit with multiple EA For Sale signs in Cheddington, a commuter village with walking distance access to the Euton mainline. They have been sitting there for 5 months waiting for someone to pay the silly prices. But no one has. They still sit. I guess that they sit on land occupied previously by 2 houses, lets say purchased at £150,000 each (very low estimate, lucky to get a flat in this part of the world for that money). Assume £100000 each to build and that by my simple maths makes a total of £600,000 sitting there on sale for around £900,000 in total. At what point will the builder realise that he has to knock thousands off to stop paying interest or loosing alternative investment opportunity? Even the professional in this case must be expecting that VI spin will at least get the asking price , after all prices are rising , arn't they? Methinks that reports of the death of the HPC are very much exagerated.
  9. Chatting to a friend who's son is a bricklayer working for £150 a day not so long ago in London. Turns out there is no demand for his services at that rate of pay any more because East Europeans are doing a days graft for £40. Some obvious implications; On those wages the migrant worker will not be buying property in the UK- No increased demand Previously well paid young man cannot now buy here -No increased demand Situation presumably extends to several trades with similar outcome. It has been VI spin to suggest that the increase in population will fuel the continuation of HP growth. Here on HPC that view was contested and as with pretty much every bear prediction on this site, it has, or it will come true. There are some basic realities out there that do not need graphs or in depth knowledge of economics to understand. We are a coutry in debt with a population in debt. Paying that off will not be easy with a recession in progress, (and it is), HPs falling (and they are) unemployment rising (just look at the business pages). I would like to thank the intelligent people on this site and their words of wisdom which allowed me to make the decision to sell and rent instead. It is proving to be the most sensible thing i have ever done. For those who stugglke with the detailed economic analysis, just look around and listen. The signs are everywhere. Patience will be rewarded. Th ings are going to accelerate this year and the opportunity to buy your own home when it is cheaper than renting may not be that far away.
  10. Half an hour ago on BBC, 'Wwatchdog' type tv with banks being critisised for irresponsible lending and misselling of payment insurance . One individual highlighted was unemployed and ill prior to bank lending and recommending useless(in those circumstances )insurance. One debt of around £100,000 with no means or hope of repaying, bank agreed to write off all unsecured debt in that case. I only caught the end of it but it seems that my predictioons are beginning to materialise. One of my first posts related to hearing that banks were making provision for writing off debt at the back end of 2004. Bancrupties soaring, prices falling VIs no longer able to play the king Canute card. My predictions are on course, the one that worries me the most, for the state of the economy, is the extent of the fall, 30% minimum to 50% in some cases falls in HPs. At the risk of sounding like a scratched record, its really going to be messy out there and i take no pleasure from being right when so many people are going to get badly burned. Divorce, depression, bancruptcy, suicides, its not going to be a happy New year for those who were to slow/ignorant/ignorant to see what has been coming, or am i just beong paranoid?
  11. Strolled to my newsagent for the sunday paper, and, in doing so walked past 3 houses, brand new, 2 semi 3 beds and a smallish 5 bed. All look nice outside, heating gioing so thats a nice additional expense for the developer. I'd say they look better built than most. They are within a 10 minute walk of Cheddington Railway station with access to London Euston in around 40 minutes. Well located well built, on with 3 agents and have not sold despite the fact they have been ready for occupancy for several months. We moved here at the beginning of October and they had clearly been ready for some time then. They are not selling. The semis are priced at £289,950 (just looked on the agents web site- one bedroom has a 5 foot something dimension!!!!!) They will not sell for that price or anywhere near it, perhaps someone with local knowledge might know if they have already been reduced? I would guess that a tad under the £250,000 stamp duty threshold might see some action otherwise they will stay in virginal condition for some time. I would not pay even that for such a small space. I rent a far larger property for less than the IO mortgage payments on £250,000. The point of this tale is If these wont, cant sell, just like dozens of properties that have for sale signs within a 5 mile radius and If people i know have taken savage reductions to sell (£45,000 and £60,000 respectively in last 3 months) then where do the VI's get their HP increases from? They are false, misleading and an attempt at manipulating the sheeple who satnd to lose the most, scared FTB's who dont want to miss the boat, for gods sake dont do it FTB,s its the HP equivillant of the bleeding Titanic. Why is there no scrutiny of such fraudulent claims. I'm sorry, I know its Sunday morning and all that, but claims of increases in house prices are complete B**locks. Tell the hoards of frustrated sellers that prices are rising and see the reaction you will get. VI's should be held to account for the losses of the (albeit economic idiots), that buy in this climate. Right thats it I'm off to scour the property pages that will no doubt tell me what a great time it is to buy, yeah right! :angry:
  12. I'm on balance more bear than bull. People I've known over the years have become wealthier than me have tended to be fairly unanalytical. I think my tendancy has been to overanalyise opportunities and talk myself out of them, which is why in the last few years I have made a concerted effort to take more risks, AND FRANKLY NOT TO FULLY EXPLORE THE INS AND OUTS OF ANY NEW OPPORTUNITY. Bearish types need to recognise that taking the cautious bearish route throughout life has down - side. Very true in some respects but i am cautious and a good job too. Allow me to provide an anedote that still casuses me embarrasment. An old 'friend', and very successful businessman, rang me up out of the blue several years ago. He told me he had made more money in the last week than he had made in any month previously and quoted some serious cash profit. He would not explain how but just asked if i was prepared to gamble £20. He would pick me up ands take me out for a meal for the £20 so it was not completely lost money even if i did not want to take part in the money making scheme. The car park of the venue had some seriously expensive cars, porsches were 10 a penny and Astins, maserattis, you name it featured prominently. We had a meal along with probably 2-300 others, (crap food like school diner) and then were ushered into a large hall. An American razamatazz, Billy Graham type, hyped entrance of the main man occurred, some in the audience clapped enthusiastically and sheeple joined in, (not me, never have followed the heard). The pyramid scheme was explained with superb almost hypnotic skill and the figures appeared to make sense. All you needed was £3000 some of which your 'introducer' got, his 'introducer a cut and so on. All I had to do was get others interested and then I would rake it in. I would not comit myself at the time but remember being mesmorised and gave it some consideration. I did not think my powers of persuasion sufficient but more importantly I was concerned that others might lose money. The scam was highlighted in the national press two weeks after the event, and i was a very relieved man indeed to have not analysed it in the cold light of day and made the right, reasoned decision. I honestly believe that todays FTBs are effectively the exposed bottom of the biggest pyramid selling scam of all time. Those that have made money are OK but a whole raft of people who have: bought in the past 2 years bought with interest only mortgages Lied to buy borrowed sums from mums and dads moved in with others speculated using MEW from BTL property in last 3 years will all be wishing they had taken the time to be more analytical and established the facts. Those that were not aware of this site will never forgive themselves for their lack of research. I've said it before and i'll say it again, 40-50% reductions are a real probability if not near certainty. It's going to be a bloodbath, repossession, bancruptcy, divorce, suicide...................am i being paranoid or just perceptive, begins with the same letter so maybe its about the same........................
  13. 20%? Its going to be more than that. 70% plus is perfectly possible in some places. I think you are right, and the Irish crash, so close to home will bring on the same in the UK. However bad our economy is , it fails to match the EU funded, non industrial and non manufacturing Irish economy. Therefore i see it as 50-70% in Ireland and 30-50% here. I am anticipating such falls around October 2006, whem i intend to buy. I will be looking for one of the real -50% bargains that will be out there from hoards of the poor reposessed. I take no satisfaction from profitting from others financial misfortune, but most of their demise will be a mixture of ignorance stubborness and greed. Those in seriousd debt should sell now before it gets really bad...........
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