Bardon

Fuel crisis looms by 2015 IT will take only seven years for world demand for oil and gas to outstrip supply, according to the chief executive of the world's second-biggest oil company. Adding to concerns long held by energy experts, Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer said that by 2015, supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas would not keep up with demand. "We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to population growth and energy development," Mr van der Veer said in an email to Shell employees. Society would have no choice but to use nuclear power and unconventional fossil fuels such as oil sands, as well as renewable energies, he said. Shell has developed two scenarios for how it sees the energy crisis unfolding. The first, dubbed Scramble, envisages policymakers paying little attention to curbing consumption until supplies run short. When major shocks trigger political reactions, they would be severe and lead to energy price spikes and volatility. The other scenario, Blueprints – which Shell prefers – would see governments introduce regulatory mechanisms such as efficiency standards and taxes to improve environmental performance.

Yes who knows when peak oil will happen or if it already has but one thing is for sure demand is growing by the day eg: India has currently four cars for every 1000 adults opposed to say the US which has 1000 cars for every 1000 adults. The Indian govt is actively promoting car ownership and hopes to quadruple sales by 2016 not bad consdiering there is 1.1 billion of them now. Now we have the super cheap Tato Nano Indian sedan that will cost just US $ 2500 on the road it looks like the govt target will be welll and truly exceeded. Chinese drivers aint sitting on their hands either with 14000 new cars on the raod every day. Mexico one of the US biggest suppliers of oil is plauged with bad news production fell 8.2% last year and will keep falling at 10% a year. Dont believe the western propoganda hype that OPEC are controlling prices its well known that they cheat the restrictions and sell as much as they can why wouldn't they with increasing prices. The UAE is planning to double its production in the next 5 years and thats big. This rising demand should see an ever increasing price of oil per barrel and as you said production cost at less than 30 a barrel is not increasing commensurate with selling prices. This is excellent news for those of us that want to exploit this trend here are some examples: - invest in up and coming oil companies that are finding more oil than they pump ie growing reserves and strong profits; - invest in one of the Canadian oil from sands company that have very lean production costs; -`invest in some of the companies that are selling oil field equipment to exploration and production companies; and last but not least - buy a strecthed Hummer with high running costs offset by your increasing oil portfolio and splash out on a strecthed hummer reunion party when oil hits 200 a barrel.

dont know why you would want something as big as that unless it is an ego thing, high maintenance

An oldie but very relevant some of the US commentators will now be eating humble pie Even assuming that the house would sell at the low end, and accounting for inflation, this means that after taking three and a half centuries to double its real value, the house has tripled in value in the last 22 years. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/05/magazine...p;th&emc=th

Sounds like I need a holiday in Hawai and provide shelter to some hot homeless chick they can also get a free shower make a few calls take the stationery and small bottles of shampoo then back to their tent afterwards for the day

I was in Jakarta during the crash when Suharto fell and the rupiah dropped 1200% once we got over the lack of security, devastation, death and shock of it all there were many buying opportunities in the early days. I was payed in US $ so buying power up 1200% got two 20ft container loads of real dutch javanese antiques and sent them back to oz gratis, the only payment was to the Brisbane wharfies some thinks wont change. Most of the other guys were just buying golf clubs and TV's hand carry. Its amazing that a whole middle class got relegated overnight yet they were out cleaning up rebuilding immediately after. If this were to happen in the western world the suicide rate would peak, massive depression (invest in pharmacuticals) and who know what else. If it does happen in the UK it would be great for me as I would come over with my ozzie dollar and buy up a lot of antiques dirt cheap and send them back to oz. Depending on how good it is I might even buy a BTL for cash. Then sell it or get a 97% loan on it when the pound recovers. Bangers is good rag trade and construction very strong but there is a lot of economic and political uncertainty small poulation no natural resources dictator, nepotism, corruption etc hope it goes well, the King isn't getting any younger either. They tell me lots of Brits doing BTL in the islands.....

Glastonbury is worse and rival tent city soldiers arent coming and shooting the place up

Serves them right for beating us in the war of independence they need someone like Lord Tebbit to clean it up not the steroid junkie Terminator

Yes I know exactly what you mean, all I can say is that it has changed dramatically especially during this decade, it certainly isn't the big country town it used to be, although I liked it when it was. Darwin is now the last bastion of ockerism, they only just got speed limits and guns are okay as long as you keep them out of site, plenty of wolf creek types there mate

Spiral staircase are vey bad fung shui not good for your prosperity...........

When I lived in Jakarta arson was referred to as a "Chinese Stocktake" As I said before me mate had the back end of his house burned down in Rochester NY and the insurance wouldn't cough up because it was a result of illegal activity following and during a drug bust. Bullet holes are very easy to repair and there are companies that specialise in cleaning up the remains of homicide from ceilings, carpets and those hard to get to places but the fire damage can be a headache.

When prices drop home owners will tend not to sell why would they ? and they own most of the houses this should dampen it

Its the most scathing, sarcastic, aggressive, underhanded, smart arsed, opionionated, cutting, slamming, ruthless, one eyed, old boy network in the world.

The city dont want vacant land blocks and normally will insist that you rehabilitate the house, which is the best thing to do as this would be most cost effective. if you get a derelcition order and dont build startight aay then they will reuire you to donate the vacant block to the city. Having done this it is not good to have a vacant house apart from the annual property taxes etc you would need to winterise it which would involve draining and blocking all water lines and the chances of getting copper stripped furnaces stole and vandalsied high and wont be able to get insurance.

Good luck with it all, are you going to Adelaide? with respect to buying a house you will need a decent loan broker to get around the just arrived in the country and no track record in OZ bit but all possible of course. The 9% super is a great thing and getting more tax benefitial by the day. In fact if you have any surplus cash left over after move it might be a good idea to put into super as the gain wont be taxable but you have to lock it away until you are 55.

That what I thought to and its interesting when it comes to insuring them becasue the replacement value on the polciy is like 130K for calculating purposes. Although they will not cover you for that. No one builds new hosues in these areas it just doen't happen as it would be immediately devlaued by the neighbourhood. The trend of inner city living has not hit most Us cities especially the smoke stack cities in the depressed North East. Most do to the suburbs the city suburbs are bad, social deprervation, vacancy, dereliction, drugs etc etc this is a major problem what happened afro american moved in polish and like moved out to the suburbs prices plunged and staid down this was a long time ago. Not many whites in these areas at all. I used to work the Buffalo and Rochester market very big cities used to be the west in the days of the Eyre Canal, Beautiful victorian architecure timber houses wide streets once were grand homes startet to go bad in the 60's got worse then the steel mills and car manufacturing stopped. It will change one day when the worldwide trend of realsing that these inner city houses are actually heritage classics close to city and grat family homes I just dont know when. I got out with the shirt on my back and know of many UK guys that got a complete hiding up there, I know many ozzies that are still getting a hiding. I sold some of my houses to brits. The locals are depressed and if they think that you live in a UK castle you are dead in the water I am talking about lenders, attorneys, property managers and city officals here not tennats.

Yes many catches property taxes tenants that dont pay rent all of them and you keep changing them and repairing damage and paying the PM to do this dont even mention the bond city violations they come free with the house at least one sewer back up a year as they back up when it floods repetitive blockages in sewer until at the end a new one then it starts blocking again roof repairs every year until you do a new one which is more than the cost of the house furnace replacements electrical violations and you cant repalce parts because they are that old ice and snow storms freezing pipes swelling and bursting trees collapse in ice storm pull down electrical line and damage neighbours house and he sues best you pay than go through the legal process depreciaiting values the insurance company withdrawing insurance because the house next to you is vacant and is a fire hazard lead based paint issues asbestos issues contaminated land issues the property manager pockets the rent tells you its vacant or they didn't pay when its vacant you cant get insured and they come in and take the copper piping and the furnace and you have to pay to replace(assuming it actually was stolen) you replace this becasue you cant rent it like that property manager send you photographs of damage and bills as evidence thats enough eh city clamp down on out of town investors and give you violations and a summons to appear in court fines for not cuting grass and it being longer than 4 inches even though you pay the PM for lawn cutting monthly snow clearing charges appear high cops bust the place for being a crack den a report is filed and there is major fire damage but insurance wont cover as it is a result of illegal activities foreign exchange risk as you will definetly make a loss its no good as you cant offset it against your domestic income then finally you give up and sell you find out that you can only sell it for half what you paid and then there is the commison to come off of that two days before closing the furnace goes and you are bound to replace it it takes you three months to get your $1000 back thats left over form the sale from the attorney that represented you and you also find out that he represented the buyer

I aint that famailar with land prices down there but here is a link that will give you an idea, its always an interesting exercise to compare the price of relatively new established houses against building a new one in the same area. My guess is that you might do better buying an established house based on the fact that Sydney west has went back in price over the last few years. When this is the case its a buy signal for some investors. http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsear...pme=any&o=p In outer Brisbane suburbs you can get 600m2 blcok for about 160K, I got a waterside 998m2 block for $209K. You can get a decent inner city house for a lot less than you think. I looked at a house for a mate who lives in Darwin (cant get here to look at it) today in Brighton a northern suburb of Brisbane its a brick 3 bedder nothing flash very dated but sound condition and 600m2 block that you could buy for $325K. I tould rent for about 325 a week, If you were looking at coming to oz to live you should consider Brisbane as its far more affordable and the salaries are now at Sydney levels thats why Sydney is losing a lot of young professionals that are moving to Brisbane as reported in the recent census. There are plenty of IT problems here that need to be sorted.

No problem with paying tolls but I prefer to live in the inner city suburbs and invest in the outer If you were considering building in that region have a look at the coral homes Magnetic 233 a 5 bedroom 233 sqm house for 139K in the Sydney region. Got to be good value from a quality builder. I know investors that swear by them I am using another more expensive builder but will consider them next time. http://www.coralhomes.com.au/default.asp

Good to see a post based on fact that actually reflects what is happening in the property market down under. As I have said in the past they aint building enough houses and once I finish my current project I will build another one, one house at a time, as there will come a time when you wouldn't want to be building one ie when the devilloppers start building again.

14000 new citizens today

Oh No Not more Poles

one more mon ami interesting to note the dop in sydney house price over last 4 years and the massive growth in Perth gives you an idea of the varying stages of the cycle that each city is in Smart investors seek areas with long-term performance By Terry Ryder, 1st January 2008 A mistake many investors make is chasing short-term growth in areas undergoing a brief and unnatural spurt of capital gains - when they should be seeking out the places with long-term records of growth. Many people are in a fever over the surge in prices in the upper end of capital city markets. Some market professionals have proposed this as proof that the prime suburbs always out-perform. The truth is the so-called prime suburbs do not always out-perform. Indeed, all the research shows the cheaper areas show the greatest capital growth over time. That's true for every major city in Australia and it's true whether you examine the data over five, 10 or 15 years. It's the un-prime areas that out-perform. The recent big growth in expensive suburbs in Melbourne and Sydney is a recent thing and follows years of under-performance in these markets. This argument is true on a wider scale. Some investors pile into markets like Darwin because they've read that there's been big price growth there. There are a couple of things wrong with that response: (1) if you're reading that big growth has happened in a location, you've already missed the capital gains boat; and (2) Darwin is not a great performer longer-term and its short-term growth spurt is irrelevant. Darwin, in fact, has been the worst performer among the eight capital cities in price growth since 1995. It has averaged only 8% a year while most big cities have managed better than 9.5%. According to data from the Real Estate Institute of Australia, Darwin has produced double-digit price growth in only three of the past 12 years - and several years have delivered price reductions. The 25% spurt in values in 2006 was pretty much a one-off anomaly. And if you project a few years into the future, Darwin is a place to avoid. If the predictions of economic forecasters BIS Shrapnel are correct, Darwin's average price growth from 1995 to 2010 will be a fraction over 6% a year, easily the most dismal effort in the nation. BIS Shrapnel predicts that Darwin values in 2010 will be lower than in 2007. Investors need to take a longer-term view, projecting not only into the past but into the future, before deciding where to put their money. If you look at the growth in median prices over the 12 years to 2007, Perth is easily the best performer among the eight capital cities. It has averaged 12.1% a year - and, unlike Darwin, has been a consistent provider of big growth. Perth has produced double-digit price growth every year for the past six years - with the 35.6% in 2006 the standout effort. But that's only part of the picture. The immediate future is less rosy than the recent past. BIS Shrapnel predicts Perth values will fall over the next three years. Perth's median price in 2007 was $447,000 but it's projected to be $425,000 by 2010. So, if these predictions are on the money, Perth will no longer be the nation's leading growth city. If BIS Shrapnel's crystal ball is working well, Brisbane will be top dog in 2010. Currently, looking at the past 12 years, Brisbane is one of five cities averaging capital growth of 9.5% to 9.8% a year. The others are Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart. The under-performers have been Sydney (8.2%) and Darwin (8.1%). Brisbane is projected to show the best growth over the next three years and by 2010 will have the leading long-term growth average. Currently Brisbane's median price is lower than Perth's and Darwin's but it will be considerably higher than those two cities in 2010, if the BIS Shrapnel projections are correct. Adelaide is currently No.2 in the nation for long-term capital growth and is projected to still be No.2 in three years. Over the past 12 years, Adelaide has averaged 9.8% capital growth a year. It has produced 8% or more growth in seven of the last 12 years. It's a good, consistent deliverer of value. And BIS Shrapnel predicts it will continue to grow and be No.2 behind Brisbane in 2010. Canberra has been, and continues to be, the quiet achiever. It has delivered 10%-plus value growth in six of the past 12 years and has averaged 9.5% since 1995. It's projected to keep growing and by 2010 will be one of three cities with a median price above $500,000 (the others being Sydney and Melbourne). Melbourne's a solid city-zen as well. It's a consistently steady market without having had a single boom year, unlike most of the other cities. Melbourne's biggest single growth year, according to the REIA figures, was 16.2% in 1998 - yet it has delivered growth of 9.5% or more in seven of the past 12 years, and is projected to keep growing. Melbourne is the kind of market sensible investors seek out - a steady deliverer of solid growth, without major peaks and troughs. Melbourne has never produced a year like 2002 in Sydney (when prices grew 24%) or like 2006 in Darwin (when prices jumped 25%), but it's long-term average is higher than both those cities. Melbourne has averaged 9.5% and Darwin 8.1%. If that doesn't sound like much of a difference, consider this. If you had bought a Melbourne house for $150,000 in 1995, and I had bought a Darwin house for the same price, today your house would be worth $64,000 more than mine. Darwin is seen as a boom city and Melbourne is not. But the Victoria capital delivers bigger gains long term. If we'd done some calculations in 2004, Sydney may have topped the national poll but after three years of declining values it's down towards the bottom of the pile with Darwin. Sydney's median house price was $552,000 in 2004 but today it's $525,000. The upshot of all this analysis is this: the cities worthy of highest consideration are Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne - and the ones to avoid are Perth and Darwin. Footnote: If only we'd known then what we know now. Here's what typical houses cost little more than 10 years ago: Sydney $220,000, Melbourne $155,000, Brisbane $130,000, Adelaide $112,000, Perth $127,000, Hobart 112,000, Canberra $158,000 and Darwin $168,000. ENDS