clv101

You think they have 260 billion barrels because they say so? The term 'proven' doesn't mean anything for Saudi Arabia, the number is purely what they tell the world - no auditing.It's also clearly a lie. From the '70s when international oil companies did operate in the kingdom and reported reserves in line with international standard reported methods Saudi Arabia reserves were pegged at ~170 billion barrels. In 1990 Saudi Arabia increased stated reserves to 260 barrels overnight without announcing any geological find. That figure of 260 billion barrels has stayed constant at 260 billion barrels unchanged for the last 15 years despite a total extraction over that time of approximately 50 billion barrels. How is it possible to extract over 3 billion barrels per year for 15 years whilst the reserves remain unchanged? The stated figure is false. In fact the true figure in 1990 was more than likely the 170 billion barrel figure, Saudi Arabia only increased the reported figure since other OPEC members had, thereby increasing their quota which was based on stated reserves. True reserves in SA today are likely to be closer to the 120 billion barrel mark than 260 with peak production occurring sooner than would normally be expected due to over production causing larger than usual amounts of oil to be left stranded, they have been using secondarily recovery techniques for a long time and water cut is increasing now. There is zero credibility in the 260 billion barrel figure.

How come? What do you mean about fiat money?

That's not quite right is it, Antarctic is increasing ice thickness in the centre but this isn't due to it getting colder it's due to getting warmer. Warmer air holds more water and results in more snowfall. The snowfall over central Antarctic has increased, depositing more ice. This is being compensated for by the increased break-up around the edges. No one knows which process is 'winning' so what the net effect is.

Well how do you interpret BPs claim?

Do you disagree with BPs 41 R/P claim? Do you disagree that it is propaganda aimed to make people believe there's no oil supply problem? BP's 41 calm is based on their best guess for ultimate recoverable reserves and today's rate of production. Divide one by the other. This is a meaningless measurement since it assumes that the last barrel of oil can be produced at a rate of 84mbpd. This is clearly not the case as we have seen in many provinces which are past their peak, production doesn't go from millions of barrels per day to zero overnight. BP's 41 year claim says it does. BP's 41 year claim also assumes oil extraction will stay flat for 41 year - even if that were true that's a problem in itself, no more oil supply growth. Since we know that extraction rate curve is a bell shaped curve and BP have told us that a simple R/P analysis returns 41 years then peak oil extraction must be soon. How do you interpret BPs claim?

zzg113, touting the BP R/P = 41 years figure is completely rubbish for reasons I hope you understand. It's completely misleading and not accepted by anyone, pure propaganda. In fact BP saying there's 41 years left like they do is the same as saying the peak is immanent. You also mention Exxon, see this article: ExxonMobil accepts Peak Oil

Matt's also a millionaire many times over - the book is not to make money. I was at the conference with Simmons a few months ago, his analysis of Saudi Arabia is pretty scary. We basically don't know what’s going on since they don't publish much data but from what information is known it would appear the kingdom is in far worse shape than they would have us believe. There's a strong argument for global peak around 2007/8 even without SA peaking soon, Matt presents evidence that SA could also be close to peak. When SA peaks the world has peaked.

Have you read my article on this: Peak Oil: Two Approaches, One Answer It seems clear that global peak is no more than 2/3 years away. I haven't seen any decent arguments for anything else.

The BBCs reporting of this news was terrible: BBC Reporting Irresponsibly Negligent

Once you've taken the red pill, woken up from the consensus trance there's no going back!

I expect you're right about price, the price response to peak oil will be far more dramatic that anything we're seeing now. I think you're wrong to say there is more than enough oil supply to meet global demand - that statement in itself is meaningless since people today are going without oil. Also looking at supply it can't increase significantly and will decrease soon, demand isn't going to reduce on it's own accord so we're not going to meet demand moving forward. It is significant that the first quarter production of most of the major oil companies is falling : ExxonMobil -3%; Chevron -6% ; Shell -8% ; Repsol YPF -7%., while Phillips-Conoco maintained its level with BP at least reporting a 2% increase (see Petroleum Review, June 2005).

The point of Skrebowski's analysis is that there isn't enough new supply coming to market to offset the depletion of existing fields in the timeframe we know about. Skrebowski calculates that there are 12.5 million barrels/day of new production capacity in development for the next five years. But 30 mb/d of new capacity will be needed to offset depletion. This suggests that the likely all-time global oil production peak will occur in 2007 or 2008 at the latest. To disagree with this you need to show where the additional 17.5 million barrels/day of new capacity the oil companies haven't told us about is coming from or show which of the existing fields in decline are unexpectedly (since there is planned work in some oil fields already included in the 12.5 mbpd figure) going to halt their decline. Which is it?

Apologies for posting this which isn't actually about housing but I think there are enough parallels to make it relevant. Last week the BBC reached a new journalistic low and whilst simultaneously putting three Peak Oil stories on the front page didn't once explain what was going on. We are told that organisations like the BBC present the news - the BBC failed on Friday to present the news on oil & gas depletion despite every opportunity to as I expect you'll agree they have also failed with house prices in the past: BBC Reporting Irresponsibly Negligent

Here's the latest article from my blog, I think it's important to point out that there are two completely different ways of calculating when peak oil will occur and importantly they agree with one another! Here the geologist's method of Hubbert and Campbell is compared to the analysis’s method of Chris Skrebowski with uncanny agreement.

Even Hollywood have figured it out. Mainstream Peak Oil Film: The Deal

Today could see a new dollar record but in other currencies we're already in record territory. The previous high on April 2nd at $58.20 corresponded to a Euro price of E45.17, UK Pound price of £30.99 and Japanese Yen price of Y6,242. Todays price of $57.60 corresponds to a Euro price of E47.12, UK Pound price of $31.47 and Japanese Yen price of 6,251. http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/lsco_fut_cso.jsp

UK falls could have been larger than 10% Also see here for excellent month by month oil production figures. Show's Australian oil production falling ~40% since a peak early 2000.

The global energy situation is dire. British oil output could have fallen as much as 17% year on year. There is a very real chance of significant global oil storages in Q4 this year. The next few years is going to see global economic disaster the like of which has never been seen before - the UK housing market is just one small bit of the picture. For more information see material from Lisbon and Edinburgh conferences.

Not indefinitely - one day (probably soon) other countries will stop buying dollars, stop buying government bonds.

There's not much left now! UK North Sea oil extraction falls 17%

You forgot the energy crisis (and those £19 will be gone soon).

I found this article from the Guardian newspaper (Nov 2004) today: There's more to the article above and below what I've quoted here. I think he makes a very good point as to why we can't turn to biodiesel as a replacement for petroleum.

Australia too, Australia is now extracting 500,000 barrels per day down from a peak of 900,000 per day in 2000.

See this BBC article published yesterday 'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate And my reports: UK North Sea oil extraction falls 17% Oil Futures in Full Contango

Here's my analysis from yesterday: www.vitaltrivia.co.uk