JimSkank

Its only our ability to service our debt that matters....

numbers transfer wealth, ask anyone in Zim

Yes it does, it transfers wealth between creditors/debtors if distributed evenly (if there is such a thing) and between those receiving proportionally more additional numbers if distributed unevenly. Semantics i'm sure

wrong... debt is just numbers too. there is enough wealth created too, just that redistribution of it by whatever means, to those that need it is bloody unfair.

The Gambler's Paradox, just keep doubling up eh?

Well the exposure of the banks mechanisms is nearly incredible. But not nearly as incredulous as the vitriolic witchhunt behaviour of the senate.

Suprised there is not a thread on this, its incredible

This early measure has been down at 35k for the last couple of months. Partially blamed on weather, and stamp duty shenanigans. It seems to me that it could drop further this month, and would be a leading indicator to the uncertainty of public sector types with regard to job security and drawing away from the housing market. In addition, it helps to fuel the theory that the market is being kept alive by cash buyers buying select, quality properties - the effect being that the market sucks cash out of the remaining market to absorb any future downward movements. I don't really have a solid belief that the market will fall significantly again, although I do buy many of the arguments. I do however have a huge vested interest in the market coming down, and this measure for me, gives me the most leading indicator of that. So come on baby, come down again, i'm looking for sub 30k.......

Do you think there is the demand to borrow all this into existence? If not, then how do you suppose you could equitably distribute this money? And after distribution, can you argue how this alone would lead to growth greater than inflation? EDIT - Q's for aa3.

Any idea how I can buy index funds as a non-UK resident?

Best guess is I would want access in 2 years time, but staying flexible is definitely a key priority.

Right, I have a six figure sum that I have saved primarily for a house purchase, but am not ready to buy a house just yet for various reasons. I have spoken to an IFA about opening an investment portfolio and he recommended the following:- Split 20% Bond Fund Templeton Global Bond fund. 20% Defensive Equity Fund Miton Special Situations. Fidelity Global Healthcare. 20% Capital Guarantee Morgan Stanley Autocallable Note (5.25% 6 monthly coupon). 10% UK equity Invesco Perpetual High Income. 30% Growth Opportunities Baring Global Emerging Markets. JPMorgan Natural Resources. Fortis Real Estate Europe. GBP retained as cash. He said.... There's a great degree of flexibility within the portfolio, not only for withdrawals, but also for restructure in the future to take advantage of best opportunities available at any given time. No initial charges or redemption fees applicable for sale at anytime for funds listed (exception is Brandeaux 1.5% and Miton 1%). We can sell out of these at anytime with no penalties which will allow for any short term access to your money that you may require from time to time. Miton’s Special Situations adopts a fund of funds approach which allows the fund manager to be defensive during volatile times and aggressive when he can see the opportunities to be bullish. It’s a top quality performer and has been among the top funds in its sector for over 10 years. This fund is also regularly recommended in both The Times and Telegraph. Iveagh Wealth Fund – is an extremely diverse & defensive fund of ETFs that offers an exposure to a wide range of markets and sectors. It targets an annual return of 10%pa ,and uses the same process as that used to manage the Guinness family assets. No initial charge, but a medium term approach should be adopted with this as early redemption charge of 5% in year 1, reducing by 1%pa to 0 after 5 years. The returns for the Morgan Stanley note are based on the performances of the FTSE 100, and the S&P GSCI oil indices over the next 5 years. As long as these are even 0.1% above where they are now (at launch in April), then it will pay out 52.5%. There is a safety net built in whereby if in 5 years time the indices are down by anywhere up to 50%, you will get the full amount of the capital invested back. There is a redemption option every 6 months, whereby if the indices are up by even 0.1%, the 5.25% is paid out and you can either reinvest, or use the money (full amount invested plus 5.25%) to do with as you choose – This is the feature that makes it so attractive from my point of view. In the event of the indices being more than 50% down in within the next 5 years the capital guarantee doesn’t apply. I feel that it’s extremely unlikely that this would be the case though, and I would certainly favour these parts of the portfolio with an outlook of up to 1 to 2 years. To give you an example of what we could achieve with this portfolio, if Xk GBP was invested 1 year ago as per above, the current value would be = Yk GBP. This is the NET figure after all charges have been deducted from the vehicle & holdings. This represents a 12 month NET gain of +34.54%. I would normally expect to get around 8%-10%+ growth per annum on average, where bonds and the emerging markets have performed exceptionally well over the past year this has helped boost the returns. These are NET figures after all charges have been deducted from the vehicle & holdings. Past performance is of course no guarantee of future growth. I would like to ask the forum their views on these types of funds/investments (I can provide more details on the ins and outs of each one?), but it seems quite balanced and easily accesible. Thanks, Jim

Absolutely. My parents went to the big ranch in the sky when I was 18, just before the housing boom and I stayed away from the housing market till it was too late really. My position is the future - a lot on here that moan (and quite rightly) about being priced out but many will still have the back rung that is inheritance. The next generation is unlikely to get that, and the social division that is being forged through the house price lottery is going to create a jugganaut based on apathy and revolt. Anyway, most with any brains will leave. I did, and i'm buggered if I'm coming back to pay taxes into that system. I can save 10 times what I saved a year in England, its a no-brainer - and will become more so.

Nail.On.Head.

EDIT : Unexpected duplication of post

Unexpected decrease in manufacturing. Pound's got further to go folks. $1.30....

And so by skimming during excessive growth periods, and subsidising during low growth - it would* remove the market risk (speculative gain?) element from investment and so would direct capital into genuinely productive areas. *in a perfick world

This is a good idea. Taken further it allows the state to direct the credit taps. An uneasy idea perhaps given general distrust in the powers that be, but in theory I like it.

I'm not coming back, bloody bonkers. You can shove your valuations up yer ****!!! Getting to the stage where I have saved so much it seems ridiculous to stick it in a house in England. Prices don't have to come down anytime in the short term. Even a generation as the funny money trickles down through family trees. Socially divisive in the extreme. Jim

looks worse than it is as you cant put transfer fees on the balance sheet

Darkman, This may not be as simple as it sounds (and be wary of the advice you have recieved, some good some bad). When is ownership transferred to your brother-in-law? (at the start/end of the 20 years or sliding scale?) If ownership, at least in part, is transferred prior to the end of the 20 year period then is any rent charged and who picks it up? Who lives in the house?! The reason I ask is I suspect that the title deeds will only be passed over in 20 years time, whilst you will have had 20 years living in the house. This makes the deal a lot better as if you PV your payments then you should also include effective rent foregone. J

In terms of servicing debt, it is oft stated on here that 350% of annual income (private GDP) is reasonable. 40% of public GDP seems v small in comparison

People, I have lost to house prices too.

So we are not bankrupt?

Huge taxes, culling the public sector, and reducing government spending. How will this not lead to a dramatic crash, and rather a gentle slide?