Cassandra

I contacted rightmove to ask how they calculated their average prices. It would appear that they try to exclude anomalies. However, I would still wonder how much their data is skewed by a few houses being put in with unrealistically high asking prices. I received the following reply: Hello Cassandra, We take the initial asking price of all new properties onto the site in the last month, and calculate the mean of them- taking out any anomolies beforehand (within two standard deviations of the mean). So the property that is given here as an example would not be included in the analysis. I hope this explains it enough for you, do reply if not. Thank you for highlighting that property I will pass this onto the customer service team who can rectify it. Kind regards Charlotte Wheeler Market Intelligence Executive

Is the price they are quoting the arithmetic mean? If so a few very expensive houses would push up the average price considerably. Take a look at this one: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-592...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy A 2 bed semi for 10 million!!! You cannot be serious

Never been to Japan?? Melons (admittedly not watermelons) can easily cost 10000 Yen or more (ie 50 pounds) !! They are available in all the big department stores in special packaging as gifts especially before New Year and other holiday periods. As always Japan leads the way

It is SIMPLY not true to say that most people in Europe live in flats. Although this may be the case in a few large cities (e.g. Paris) most people live in houses. One example: The Netherlands has the highest population denstiy of any country in Europe. According to official figures (http://www.nvm.nl/nvm/index.jsp?navid=nvm076627&doelgroep=woningmarkt) in Q3 of this year of 36783 properties sold in Holland only 10499 were appartments (29%), the rest being houses. I suspect that in other European countries where population density is lower the proportion of appartments is consderably lower than this (excepting a few very large cities).

This has the potential to be much bigger than the mis-sellling scandals of endowment mortgages and personal pensions. I am not sure who will be legally liable but potentially surveyors etc could find themselves in big trouble as BTL investors realize that they have paid way over the odds. A lot of people will find that they are 10's of thousands out of pocket. OUCH!!! As property prices fall it becomes VERY interesting. When the tide goes out you find who has been swimming without a costume.

"Christmas ding-dongs between rowing couples..." ...I know Sir Steve Redgrave and Matthew Pinsett had done us proud in the Olympics but I had no idea that skulling was so popular... ...or that it was so contentious a sport!

My thinking is that house prices are way overvalued. However prices haven't come down much so far as most sellers would rather hold out for what they think their house is worth than give up some of their capital gain. Therefore the market has stagnated, rather than crashed. What is needed is something to give a jolt. Once there is real momentum downwards then the crash will be unstoppable. Prices will then go into freefall. Unfortunately for those that bought near the top they will end up with negative equity. Some will have their houses repossessed, forcing the market still lower. BTL landlords will try to escape the Gotterdammerung but most will be too late (I think the smart investors have already sold up). Some will realize the folly of property as an investment in the coming few years and will try to get out, even if it means accepting a loss. However there are many investors that got into BTL 3 or more years ago and can still escape with a small profit. As these investors cash in this will drive the market still lower. History has shown that after every boom there is a bust where prices fall below historic norms. Myself I reckon we are due for a ~50% drop in prices. The U-turn on SIPPs could just be necessary trigger to get everything rolling. However if this turns out not to be the case then there are other possible triggers: increased interest rates, increased unemployment...

Maybe its the retirement bungalow for the Beverley Hillbillies!

Goldman Sachs http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1795946,00.html Bonuses of 420k$ per employee. Total 9.2 BILLION$ !!! TOTALLY OBSCENE

Thing that amazes me is that snags (faults) are accepted as normal. The article implies that the average new build has something like 80 defects that need to be put right. The quality of British buiilders is absolutely disgraceful. Reminds me of British Leyland in the 70's. At that time we were told that any new car must expect to have a few teething troubles. Then came along Toyota and the other Japanese and showed that it was indeed possible to make something that didn't fall to bits after 5 minutes. Comparing British homes to those built in Europe it never ceases to amaze me how rubbish most UK houses are. The quality of the workmanship is poor and even in the most expensive homes shoddy materials are used. (Strangely enough although the Japs have a great reputation for car making their houses are also crap. They appear to be built out of empty packing cases. I once read that the average life expectancy of a Japanese house was just over 20 years!).

Article in the Independent http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article311537.ece Tokyo tower may be torn down as pod living palls By Robert Booth in Tokyo Published: 10 September 2005 Japan's love affair with capsule living may finally be over. Residents in the country's most famous experiment in living and working in tiny pods have become so disgruntled with their accommodation that they are plotting its demolition. Inhabitants of the seminal and internationally celebrated Nagakin Capsule Tower in the upmarket Ginza district of Tokyo want it to be torn down and a new building erected. Their campaign pits the reality of life in a capsule measuring 4m by 2.5m against a designer's futuristic idealism. The renowned architect, Kisho Kurokawa, created apartments with just one circular window, a built-in bed and bathroom unit and even a built-in calculator. His landmark building went on to inspire hundreds of capsule hotels in Japanese city centres, which are often used by tipsy businessmen as a cheap and convenient alternative to heading home to wives and families after work. But for all its influence, and conveniences that were modern when it was built in 1972, the demolition campaigners complain that Mr Kurokawa's units are too difficult to maintain. Drainage and water pipes are damaged, and plans to unclip the capsules and refurbish them have never come to fruition. Residents are also afraid that asbestos used in construction poses a health risk. Mr Kurokawa is resisting the pressure, but he believes the towerhas only a 50 per cent chance of survival. Local architects said the problem was that the building retains its striking appearance of stacked up boxes, which makes it a tourist attraction, but with time the capsules have become increasingly unpleasant to live in. "One option is to destroy it completely, and one of the capsule residents would like to design a new building," Mr Kurokawa told the British architecture newspaperBuilding Design. "Others, including myself, would like to maintain the building to my design theory, and that means replacing the capsules. Every year I have proposed maintenance. In 33 years they didn't do this." Under Mr Kurokawa's theory of allowing the building its own "metabolism", the units for offices, workshops and homes were designed to be detachable and replaceable during its lifetime. The Nagakin capsules were built in a factory and came with pre-assembled interiors. The capsules were hoisted into place by crane and hung off a concrete core from just four bolts. They have never been detached. Mr Kurokawa argued that the presence of asbestos would make demolition dangerous, and said it would take only eight months to refurbish the units, as opposed to four years to design and build a replacement. Its 140 units are so small and functional that they have been disparagingly compared to the interior of a Nasa space shuttle. But it remains a destination for tourists interested in design, particularly from Europe, where the Nagakin tower's principles are being championed. The British Government has argued that a modified version of this modular housing could help to meet housebuilding targets. Such is the demand to see the tower that a mock-up of one of the capsules is open to visitors. The international heritage protection group Docomomo has pleaded unsuccessfully for the United Nations' heritage arm to protect the structure. The Japanese government, which has a reputation for paying close attention to the protection of buildings from the Edo era (1600-1867) but not its post-war heritage, has also declined to offer protection.

Apologies if this has already been posted. A home-grown problem Sep 8th 2005 From The Economist print edition America's housing boom is causing an enormous misallocation of resources THE past few years have seen simultaneous housing booms in an unusually large number of countries. However, according to The Economist's global house-price indices, in the second quarter of this year the pace of increase slowed in most places, compared with a year ago (see table). In only two of the 20 countries covered have prices accelerated significantly this year: the United States and Denmark. The sharpest drop in annual house-price inflation over the past year has been in Britain (from 19% to 2%). Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have also seen a marked slowdown: Australian prices have even fallen, if only by 0.1%. Housing markets in Spain, France, Italy and Ireland have also cooled a bit. By contrast, America's housing market remains red hot. Average home prices jumped by 13.4% in the year to the second quarter, the biggest rise in 26 years—in real terms, the biggest on record. Prices are now rising at a double-digit pace in 24 states, plus Washington, DC. Seven states and the capital enjoyed gains of more than 20%. Even Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, now seems to agree that American homes look overvalued and that there is a risk that prices could fall. A common counter-claim is that house prices are sticky downwards: the national average has never fallen year-on-year. But declines are far from rare in many parts of the country. Richard DeKaser, the chief economist at National City, a Cleveland bank, has found that in the past 20 years as many as 63 out of 299 metropolitan areas studied have seen house prices fall by 10% or more over periods of at least two years. The median decline during these slumps was 17%. This is the first time that booms—and hence potential busts—have occurred in so many states at once. The popular argument that high house prices are justified by low interest rates has also been stretched to its limit. The affordability of houses for first-time buyers, measured by the ratio of median income to median mortgage payments, is at its most daunting since 1989—the market's previous peak, after which average nationwide home prices failed to keep pace with inflation for five years. On the surface, America's housing boom looks more modest than those elsewhere. Since 1997 prices have risen by only half as much as in Britain. On the other hand, the property boom has probably caused a bigger misallocation of resources in America because of the response of borrowers, savers and investors. Residential investment has risen to 6% of GDP, close to a record. Add in the wealth effect from rising home values and the boost to spending from mortgage-equity withdrawal, and housing accounted for an astonishing 50% of GDP growth in the first half of this year, reckons David Rosenberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch. Since 2001 more than half of all private-sector jobs created have been in housing-related industries. Second-quarter figures, due later this month, are likely to show that the value of property rose to 33% of households' total assets—the highest in the 60 years for which data exist. Banks' profits have also been unduly dependent on mortgage lending. According to the Bank Credit Analyst, a Canadian research firm, property loans now account for 53% of banks' total lending, up from 30% two decades ago. The American economy's addiction to housing leaves it exposed not only to a cooling of property prices, but also to long-term costs. The technology bubble in the late 1990s at least left behind a modern capital stock, which continues to yield productivity gains; a property boom, in contrast, does nothing to boost long-term growth. Instead, it diverts resources away from more productive sectors and by fuelling consumer spending it exacerbates America's economic imbalances. Eventually, there will be a price to pay.

Wonder what the second prize is?? ...a fortnights holiday in New Orleans

They did cursing better in the old days. From the immortal Blackadder. Edmund: (reads) "Dear Enemy: I curse you, and hope that something slightly unpleasant happens to you, like an onion falling on your head." Baldrick: Well, that is the bottom end of the market. They run all the way to this one, for four ducats. Edmund: (reads) "Dear Enemy: may the Lord hate you and all your kind, may you be turned orange in hue, and may your head fall off at an awkward moment."

Kenneth Clarke has for years been a director of BAT. In this function he continues to actively promote the sale of cigarettes to the third world. Cigarettes kill millions each year. Many more people than from terrorism Is this really the sort of person that should be leading the conservative party??? If Ken does get the leadership job it will be IMHO another own goal for the Tories. Labour will milk the tobacco link for all its worth.

A doubling of pricces over 20 years sounnds a lot but this works out as an annual rate of about 3.5%. After taking away inflation this leaves a real increase of only 1%/year or so.

I question this. Holland has also suffered from rampant rises in house prices over the last few years so is just as expensive as much of the UK. Taxes are higher (with the top rate of income tax at 52%) although mortgage interest is still tax deductable (although the government would like to stop this). Like the UK there is also a vast amount of petty crime and Muslim extremism (remember the murder of Theo van Gogh). For my money in Europe maybe Germany is the place to go. Along with Japan it is one of the few places where prices have declined the last few years. It also has great countryside and the spas are fantastic. However, don't mention the war!!!

If you can understand a bit of Dutch then www.funda.nl is the Dutch equivalent of Rightmove. This can give you an idea of what is available in the areas that you are interested in. Also, for house price trends you can find graphs etc. at www.nvm.nl (in the section marktontwikkeling). These give breakdowns of prices in the Netherlands per region according to housing type. From these it should be realtively easy to get an accurate idea of what you will have to pay. (NVM is the Dutch Federation of Estate Agents.) Interestingly the Dutch market boomed rather earlier than in the UK but flattened about 4 years ago. Since then it has crept up slightly. Is this an example of a soft landing we all say can't happen in the UK? Also, bear in mind that in Holland it is possible (even normal) to put in an offer below the asking price. However if the vendor accepts your offer then this is binding (so that if you later change your mind this will be very expensive!). In Holland purchase costs including tax will normally be about 7-8% of the price for existing houses. For new builds the costs are normally included in the price (I also don't understand the logic of this but bear it in mind in comparing prices).

In 20 years there is time for a crash, another boom and a further crash. However as demonstrated by Japan it is entirely possible that prices will decline year-on-year for many years. In the long term I think prices (at least in relation to incomes) will come down. It all depends on whether the supply/demand situation is sorted out.

...and I wonder if Kirsty has the short fat hairy legs!!!

Didn't see the programme. I can't say I'm particularly bothered. As far as I can see the only figures P&K are really interested in are their TV ratings. If these fall far enough they will be taken off. Its really as simple as that. Since there is presumably no one left that can take their daft predictions seriously then I suppose they can try and be a comedy double act. If that brings in the viewers (and obviously that means you lot sitting goggle eyed!!!) then they've succeeded.

Millionaires’ row goes to ground with shifting sand From James Bone in New York THE California dream came to a sudden end for families in Laguna Beach when a landslide destroyed their homes overlooking the Pacific. Residents of the Bluebird Canyon area had to scramble for safety when the earth began to move at about 7am on Wednesday. Jill Lockhart, who awoke to the noise of shattering glass and walls, said: “You could hear the homes breaking. You could hear the cracking wood.” Ms Lockhart, 35, threw her two-year-old son over her shoulder and dragged his fouryear-old brother, Trey, along as she fled from their home. “It was like a nightmare,” she said. “We had to run for our lives.” The 30-acre section of hillside broke free and swamped the homes, sending them crashing down the canyon. One expert estimated that the hill had fallen 50ft and moved 100ft to one side. The disaster took place about a mile from the beach on steep sandstone hills covered withhomes worth up to $4 million (£2.2 million) each — many times the £26,200 maximum in federal emergency assistance. Fire officials said that 17 homes had been destroyed and 11 seriously damaged. But because the slide was relatively slow-moving, no one was killed and only five people suffered slight injuries.

OK, so now I hope there will be a promotion like: buy 2 houses, get one free!!

Nice work if you can get it!

Seem to recall that Capt Cook was killed by natives on Hawaii. Hope you friend doesn't suffer the same fate at the hands of angry FTB'ers!!