lufc

Hmmm, I wonder how all of those investment bankers and their likes will be making a living in a couple years time ??? IMHO London and the South East should get slaughtered.

I'm certainly not qualified to comment but I do hope you're right.

I never thought about the effect of leveraging. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9263.html I hope he's got his sums wrong, though I rather doubt it.

Now lets see ... £146.4 bn Gilt issuance for this year ... £150 bn of Q/E money won't last long you know.

Now I'm not much of a chartist but this has an unnatural look about it. http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/bon...p;stash=A11AC18 The "market" seems to want higher yields but intervention drives it in the opposite direction (for the time being).

I like Dr Ros Altmann .... a voice of reason. Life would be so much easier if the "powers that be" were just to come clean on their future intentions, whats the point creating all this new debt knowing that it can't be repaid without massive levels of inflation.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2166 Poor old Mr Coogan is so behind the times. What is the new lifeblood of mortgage lending - maybe the "Taxpayer" , the Boe's ever expanding balance sheet, pension funds, the Chinese - who knows ??????

http://www.bloomberg.com/index_americas.html Getting redder by the minute.

Dow futures have just turned red. Could be time to assume the crash position once more.

Compared to previous year excesses ..... They need to print much much more than that .... and then work out how and when to put the cork back in the bottle .... Oh well !!!

This is the $64,000 question isn't it. I don't think anyone (more so those in control of the presses) has much of a clue what's going to happen.

I think you will find that the £XXX billions that they're talking about at the moment is just to keep the present banking system from imploding. This Q/E thing isn't just a matter of turning on the presses, to keep consumer debt increasing at recent levels (12% on £1,400 bn maybe) the government will have to create £168 bn this year, and £188 bn next year, and £210bn the year after etc,etc. As I said, UKplc will most likely be declared bankrupt before these amounts can be pumped into the system.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...jan/taba5.4.xls Have a quick look at the above table - a couple of interesting points. Seasonally adjusted value of loans for house purchase Dec 2008 was £3.5 bn (annualised £70 bn) against Dec 2009 £10.9 bn (annualised £180.5 bn). Average value of loan for house purchase for Dec 2008 (£3.5bn / 31,000 loans) = £114k whilst Average value of loan for house purchase for Dec 2007 (£10.9bn / 73,000 loans) = £149k Remortgaging also seems to be falling of a cliff but that is a whole different story. Now that would suggest to me that the Government will have to pump in least £100bn a year to really make a difference (a piddly little £20 or 30bn won't really scratch the surface I don't think). I don't disagree that they're now in a position of inflate or die, but they will have to do an awful lot more than this (provided UKplc isn't officially declared bankrupt beforehand).

They might also want to add the extra £3.5 ml an hour that it costs to service the £30 bn interest payments on UKplc's public debts (and that could well soon skyrocket).

I think you're quite right, wages will be targetted before CPI/RPI in setting interest rates . However CB monetary policies could well become increasingly meaningless in the future, it will be the markets and our creditors that set real lending/saving rates.

Shame that we're all being forced into a gamble, but it might just be one that really pays off. I believe that BP/ Shell will be paying 6% dividends for the foreseeable future and will be a great hedge against what might be just lurking around the corner. Big decisions.

Spot on. Labour as a political party must soon start to think about damage limitation.

I would prefer disembowelment.

Lose our AAA rating and any credibility will be gone ... farewell Mr Brown ... and the pound.

This is the interesting bit for me. I don't think CPI will stay below 2% for very long at all even before the effects of the stimulus packages kick in. Whatever will Merv & Co do when inflation (bogus or not) starts to tick up.

Financial protectionism ... Brown's worst nightmare. I can't see how concerted and and co-operative printing/currency devaluation can work ... the massively indebted UK and US could try to work together but would most likely be told to feck off by the rest of the world. Different countries will require different levels of "easing" for instance (at a guess) US and UK ... shedloads Europe ... (in most cases) a lot less than US and UK China .... a lot less than Europe Middle East and SWF's ... none. I think the mistrust between banks will soon be transfered to mistrust between Governments. Its all a mucking fuddle. Edited to add: Having said that the talk of QE seems to have had the desired effect on yields : http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/bon...p;stash=A85C6B8 not for long I hope.

The £ vs the $ is like a minnow swimming against a great white shark. Euroland (even though I think it will break up) doesn't have the great debt headache hanging over it. UKplc is in deep shiiiit as Messr Sarcocky explained. Give it a couple of months and what is left of the free (currency) markets will give their opinion.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...oan-scheme.html The pounds recent revival even against the dollar will soon be put into reverse once the market gets it's head around this little lot. UKplc RIP. Edited to add ... nearly 30% of GDP !!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/bon...p;stash=99D47F8 Besides QE efforts at the moment the charts say yes.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml