[catara]

Did anybody experience the previous downturn during the '90s in Spain?

How much was the price falls from top to bottom?

If there is any desperation stage, when do you expect it to happen?

This post has been edited by catara: 29 January 2009 - 02:41 PM

[Fromage Frais]

catara, on Jan 29 2009, 03:41 PM, said:

Did anybody experience the previous downturn during the '90s in Spain?

How much was the price falls from top to bottom?

If there is any desperation stage, when do you expect it to happen?

I remember going to mallorca years ago when I was young and the puerto portals was empty with few takers. You could have had a mooring or a flat for a song then. now of course its millions +

This is the problem with spanish resorts and holiday home investment in general when its good its very good. But when its bad a holiday especially an expensive one is the first thing to go.

At the end of the day aside from people retiring or people renting out at 10-20% returns what is the point of having a holiday home anyhow if the prices fall or stay the same? I mean in Tunisia you could have a house in Carthage or stay in the 5 star hotel for the rest of your life.

When my parents bought their apartment it was half the price it was worth last year 2008 and they bought in 2001 (and was expensive then) so I cannot say about the last property crash only that we are 200% at least in 2007 what it was in the late 90s

[carseller]

Spain is going to get hyperinflation.

[Nautorius]

carseller, on Jan 30 2009, 10:38 PM, said:

Spain is going to get hyperinflation.

Hyper Inflation comes from quantitive Easing and as Spain is tied to the Euro I doubt this will happen!

Spain is going to crash worse than the 1990's....expect about 50-60% off over next 12 months. Massive oversupply, no local interest, no jobs in the Costas and no mewing in UK to buy! Banks only lending 50% max at the moment...It is a vicious spiral...

N.

[West Hampstead]

catara, on Jan 29 2009, 02:41 PM, said:

Did anybody experience the previous downturn during the '90s in Spain?

How much was the price falls from top to bottom?

If there is any desperation stage, when do you expect it to happen?

2008 was a pretty bad year for Spanish property and things look like they are going to get a lot worse before they get better. This is the first time that we have seen year on year price falls in the official index since the market started to slump in the second half of 2007.

Officially, at least, nominal property prices have not fallen since 1993.

Average property prices fell almost everywhere, though prices were still creeping up in the provinces of Sevilla (+3.4%), Cadiz (+3%), Valencia (+0.9%), and Extremadura (+0.1%), if you believe the government’s figures.

Values fell the most in the province of Madrid (-7.6%), followed by Murcia (-5.8%), Tenerife (-5.8%), and Castellon (-5.3%).

Over 10 years, however, Spanish property values are still 215% higher in Andalucía, 211% in Murcia, and 200% in the Balearics.

Property prices on the Spanish Mediterranean coast fell by 14.3% in 2008, according to the latest monthly Spanish house price index published by Tinsa, one of Spain’s leading appraisal companies.

The fall applies to both newly built and resale properties, so this is the first closely-watched index to show big falls for newly built property.

So what do all these statistics mean for potential property buyers in Spain well according to Susana Suspenda, the Marketing and Operations manager for Spanish Hot Properties

“Cash buyers should be getting a great deal in 2009 and its probably the best time to buy property in Spain with buyers moving in this year picking up the best value in distressed property sales and hugely discounted new developments from developers in trouble”.from http://property-inve...s.blogspot.com/

[catara]

West Hampstead, on Feb 2 2009, 03:40 PM, said:

“Cash buyers should be getting a great deal in 2009 and its probably the best time to buy property in Spain with buyers moving in this year picking up the best value in distressed property sales and hugely discounted new developments from developers in trouble”.from

Everybody knows that, except the sellers...

http://www.spanishpr...homes-in-spain/

There is no chance of a recovery before this glut of 1 millions properties are selling. Or are demolished...

Anybody has any guess which area on the Costas (or lnland form the Costas) will offer the best value for the money at or around the bottom?
Properties in Alicante region seem to get close to being acceptable, but the area is wreck. Meanwhile, the Malaga region prices are still holding extremely high.

This post has been edited by catara: 02 February 2009 - 04:36 PM

[Peter Hun]

West Hampstead, on Feb 2 2009, 03:40 PM, said:

2008 was a pretty bad year for Spanish property and things look like they are going to get a lot worse before they get better. This is the first time that we have seen year on year price falls in the official index since the market started to slump in the second half of 2007.

Officially, at least, nominal property prices have not fallen since 1993.

Average property prices fell almost everywhere, though prices were still creeping up in the provinces of Sevilla (+3.4%), Cadiz (+3%), Valencia (+0.9%), and Extremadura (+0.1%), if you believe the government’s figures.

Do not, under any circumstances believe anything the Spanish Government say - they lie through their teeth because of their dependence on property income.

There is a very low floor for prices to fall to in Spain. There is large unemployment and very poor wages to support prices. 65K euro is the target price for a 2bed apartment for the locals wages. Anything above that is speculation. Spain is not a place to buy and sale for a quick profit, with the vast oversupply (1.6million or more) its will be a decades before any sort of return will be possible.

I'd say it will be 5 years before prices start rising and then only slowly.

catara, on Feb 2 2009, 04:23 PM, said:

Anybody has any guess which area on the Costas (or lnland form the Costas) will offer the best value for the money at or around the bottom?

Spanish Property Costa Comparison

http://news.kyero.co...osta-comparison

This post has been edited by Peter Hun: 03 February 2009 - 10:17 AM

[catara]

Peter Hun, on Feb 3 2009, 10:14 AM, said:

There is a very low floor for prices to fall to in Spain. There is large unemployment and very poor wages to support prices. 65K euro is the target price for a 2bed apartment for the locals wages.

65K Euro where? In Alicante region 65K can already get you many 2 bedroom apts. in areas nobody would like to have holidays, let alone live.

You mean 65K in very desirable areas? Also, 65K Euros for how many m^2?

[Peter Hun]

catara, on Feb 3 2009, 10:40 AM, said:

65K Euro where? In Alicante region 65K can already get you many 2 bedroom apts. in areas nobody would like to have holidays, let alone live.

You mean 65K in very desirable areas? Also, 65K Euros for how many m^2?

Thats how much the local market can support. The holiday home market is obviously inflated, but you can but properties going down to that level. The definition of 'a very desirable area' depends on anyone actually desiring to buy there in the current economic climate. The locals are not going to buy in the holiday area's because wages are no where near enough.

[carleneg]

My family have owned property in Spain since 1981 so we have experienced many highs and lows in the property market. I have lived in Spain myself since 1996 and have my businesses here and in Italy. The Spanish property market had risen at an immense rate driven largely by overseas investors. The grossly inflated prices you experience in the UK has definitely been seen here in Spain also, and that kind of growth could never continue.

Prices are coming down, and as in the UK , there are great bargains to be had. However if you are buying for investment then it should really only be a long term investment ie 5- 10 years as the property market here will take time. Spain is still the no1 holiday destination for the UK and Ireland, so it will always have a market, although will be greatly effected amongst other things by the drop in the pound. The most desireable locations are not dropping at the rate we see in areas such as South Costa Blanca, and whilst there are bargains to be had, the real bargains are the repossessions.

Bank repossessions in Spain are more complex than in the UK and whilst many many agents use this in their marketing, very very few of these will be the repossessions they claim. You need the full amount in cash though to buy in this manner and therefore the hugely discounted properties will only be available to a small few. The only way really to get to hear of these types of properties is by being here and in the business such as myself.

It would be lovely to have a crystal ball and know how much further the market could drop but one things for sure, the majority of foreign purchasers here in Spain would have had to put in around 30% of their own money initially, which is a lot harder to walk away from than if you had a 100% mortgage on a house as in the Uk. The trend for most people is to find a rent for their property and if they can, to ride the storm. Long term rents are not two a penny here but as most spanish have been forced out of their own property market, there is an increased amount of Spanish renting. Time will tell, and I think we will all be a lot wiser for it.

[chelston]

I was buying a new build apartment in neauva andulasia, near puero banus in 2003, I changed my mind at the last minute and lost 5k deposit, I have since found out it was a illegal build, and the developer has to give a plot of land to the council to make it legal, or if the developer is bankrupt the residents will have to stump up the money. The apartments were cumbrios rodeo, if I rememer right. Lucky escape I think. "sorry if I got the spelling wrong" .

[carleneg]

Yes you are quite right Cumbre del Rodeo was the project and it had tried to get off the ground quite a few times, although from memory there was always a cloud surrounding its license. Im not sure about the ins and outs of it though with regards to the licenses and effect on owners now as its not a development I ever marketed or sold. Did you end up buying anywhere?

chelston, on Feb 11 2009, 03:05 AM, said:

I was buying a new build apartment in neauva andulasia, near puero banus in 2003, I changed my mind at the last minute and lost 5k deposit, I have since found out it was a illegal build, and the developer has to give a plot of land to the council to make it legal, or if the developer is bankrupt the residents will have to stump up the money. The apartments were cumbrios rodeo, if I rememer right. Lucky escape I think. "sorry if I got the spelling wrong" .

[chelston]

No I did not buy in spain, after I pulled out of the deal in cumbres del rodeo. I returned to the Uk and bought a bungalow at telescombe cliffs near Brighton, I sold the bungalow last july it was only on the market 1 day, it had great sea views, maybe that was the reason for the quick sale. I was very lucky, nothing is moving now according to my previous neighbour. I am now living with my partner in the Philippines, we are renting a house in the mountains in Tagaytay overlooking Taal volcano, it is 40 miles from manila. I was going to live in thailand and thought I would give the Philippines a visit first, I met a lovely lady in the resort of Boracay, she is 45 yrs I am 59 so the age gap is ok, we are very happy. Yep a lot of old guy's with young girls here, I am not going to pass judgement!!.