Guest Daddy Bear Posted January 11, 2007 Share Posted January 11, 2007 HPC Economic Almanac 2007 Jan 2007 – Dec 2007 UK Interest Rates rise 0.25 % Jan 10th and then 0.25% in March and June and October due to inflation spiraling upwards. Huge £1.4 trillion consumer debt eventually reaches bursting point and precipitates a collapse in UK consumer spending. US Housing Market continues spiral downwards – losing 60% of peak value. Economic Growth falls off a cliff in the US and world’s largest economy goes into major recession. Dollar collapses by 50% due to astronomical current account deficit. Global Fiscal crisis Large riots break out in major cities Massive simultaneous terrorist attacks on a number of financial centres. Saudi Arabia stability undermined - House of Saud under attack.. Iran states it will go ahead and price oil in euros from march 2007 Middle East descends into chaos as US has to act to save the oil backed dollar from meltdown - tensions between Israel/US and Iran/other gulf states escalate into major conflict (possibly nuclear). Huge oil price shock – oil rises to $120 a barrel. Avian Flu mutates into human form in Asia and quickly spreads to Europe/US causing a global pandemic. Major Hedge Funds collapse in Global Market Stock Market Crash Global Collapse of Major Banks. Global Economic Financial Meltdown. Storms and flooding batter UK and Europe. Worst Drought ever strikes Europe and North Africa causing huge water shortages. Thames Barrier breached – £50 billion damage Category 5 Hurricane ‘Dave’ batters the East coast of the States. Global Warming blamed. Huge inland flooding occurs in a number of countries worldwide. Massive Earthquake strikes Tokyo 8.1 on the Richter Scale. Nikkei collapse from 17000 pts to 8000pts Major Insurance companies collapse. Assets prices continue to inflate wildly War breaks out in Asia (North Korea/China neighboring states) WMD are used Chinas growth falters resulting in economic hard landing Category 5 Typhoon batters major Asian City. IT and Wireless communication attached by tech-terrorists Earthquake 7.9 on Richter Scale strikes Los Angeles George Bush 'crosses the Rubicon' and dismantles US democratic constitution with backing from the senate to deal with unprecedented global crisis. 2008 House prices in the UK suffer faltering growth in 2007 (3%) but rally strongly in 2008 with double digit growth……. That’s for the bulls…..hit The “Perfect Economic Storm 2007” is upon us Anything else I have not considered? DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 HPC Economic Almanac 2007Jan 2007 – Dec 2007 UK Interest Rates rise 0.25 % Jan 10th and then 0.25% in March and June and October due to inflation spiraling upwards. Huge £1.4 trillion consumer debt eventually reaches bursting point and precipitates a collapse in UK consumer spending. US Housing Market continues spiral downwards – losing 60% of peak value. Economic Growth falls off a cliff in the US and world’s largest economy goes into major recession. Dollar collapses by 50% due to astronomical current account deficit. Global Fiscal crisisLarge riots break out in major cities Massive simultaneous terrorist attacks on a number of financial centres. Saudi Arabia stability undermined - House of Saud under attack.. Iran states it will go ahead and price oil in euros from march 2007 Middle East descends into chaos as US has to act to save the oil backed dollar from meltdown - tensions between Israel/US and Iran/other gulf states escalate into major conflict (possibly nuclear). Huge oil price shock – oil rises to $120 a barrel. Avian Flu mutates into human form in Asia and quickly spreads to Europe/US causing a global pandemic. Major Hedge Funds collapse in Global Market Stock Market Crash Global Collapse of Major Banks. Global Economic Financial Meltdown. Storms and flooding batter UK and Europe.Worst Drought ever strikes Europe and North Africa causing huge water shortages.Thames Barrier breached – £50 billion damage Category 5 Hurricane ‘Dave’ batters the East coast of the States. Global Warming blamed. Huge inland flooding occurs in a number of countries worldwide. Massive Earthquake strikes Tokyo 8.1 on the Richter Scale. Nikkei collapse from 17000 pts to 8000pts Major Insurance companies collapse. Assets prices continue to inflate wildlyWar breaks out in Asia (North Korea/China neighboring states) WMD are used Chinas growth falters resulting in economic hard landing Category 5 Typhoon batters major Asian City. IT and Wireless communication attached by tech-terrorists Earthquake 7.9 on Richter Scale strikes Los Angeles George Bush 'crosses the Rubicon' and dismantles US democratic constitution with backing from the senate to deal with unprecedented global crisis. 2008 House prices in the UK suffer faltering growth in 2007 (3%) but rally strongly in 2008 with double digit growth……. That’s for the bulls…..hit The “Perfect Economic Storm 2007” is upon us Anything else I have not considered? DB I posted this at the beginning of the year - just thought it might be worth revisiting. ECONOMIC MELTDOWN IS A FEW DAYS AWAY - NEXT WEEK A UK BANK WILL FOLLOW NORTHERN ROCK - I BELIEVE IT WILL BE HBOS - THIS WILL NOT PAN OUT WITH HYPERINFLATION OR EVEN A DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO.............. if you think this year has been bad wait till next................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 ECONOMIC MELTDOWN IS A FEW DAYS AWAY - NEXT WEEK A UK BANK WILL FOLLOW NORTHERN ROCK - I BELIEVE IT WILL BE HBOS is this 100% correct, guaranteed? Not bad going with the predictions - we should rename you Nostradamus Bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted November 16, 2007 Share Posted November 16, 2007 is this 100% correct, guaranteed?Not bad going with the predictions - we should rename you Nostradamus Bear Some of these events were so unlikely as well ! - Who would have believed These could happen UK Interest Rates rising Huge £1.4 trillion consumer debt eventually reaches bursting point and precipitates a collapse in UK consumer spending. US Housing Market continues spiral downwards – losing 60% of peak value. Economic Growth falls off a cliff in the US and world’s largest economy goes into major recession. Dollar collapses by 50% due to astronomical current account deficit. Iran states it will go ahead and price oil in euros from march 2007 Gulf states escalate into conflict (possibly nuclear). Huge oil price shock – oil rises to $120 a barrel. Major Hedge Funds collapse in Global Market Stock Market Crash Global Collapse of Major Banks. Global Economic Financial Meltdown. What a suprise!!!! These were the obvious ones: Storms and flooding batter UK and Europe. Huge inland flooding occurs in a number of countries worldwide. I'll be back when HBOS collapses bye DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 HPC Economic Almanac 2007Jan 2007 – Dec 2007 UK Interest Rates rise 0.25 % Jan 10th and then 0.25% in March and June and October due to inflation spiraling upwards. Huge £1.4 trillion consumer debt eventually reaches bursting point and precipitates a collapse in UK consumer spending. US Housing Market continues spiral downwards – losing 60% of peak value. Economic Growth falls off a cliff in the US and world’s largest economy goes into major recession. Dollar collapses by 50% due to astronomical current account deficit. Global Fiscal crisis Large riots break out in major cities Massive simultaneous terrorist attacks on a number of financial centres. Saudi Arabia stability undermined - House of Saud under attack.. Iran states it will go ahead and price oil in euros from march 2007 Middle East descends into chaos as US has to act to save the oil backed dollar from meltdown - tensions between Israel/US and Iran/other gulf states escalate into major conflict (possibly nuclear). Huge oil price shock – oil rises to $120 a barrel. Avian Flu mutates into human form in Asia and quickly spreads to Europe/US causing a global pandemic. Major Hedge Funds collapse in Global Market Stock Market Crash Global Collapse of Major Banks. Global Economic Financial Meltdown. Storms and flooding batter UK and Europe. Worst Drought ever strikes Europe and North Africa causing huge water shortages. Thames Barrier breached – £50 billion damage Category 5 Hurricane ‘Dave’ batters the East coast of the States. Global Warming blamed. Huge inland flooding occurs in a number of countries worldwide. Massive Earthquake strikes Tokyo 8.1 on the Richter Scale. Nikkei collapse from 17000 pts to 8000pts Major Insurance companies collapse. Assets prices continue to inflate wildly War breaks out in Asia (North Korea/China neighboring states) WMD are used Chinas growth falters resulting in economic hard landing Category 5 Typhoon batters major Asian City. IT and Wireless communication attached by tech-terrorists Earthquake 7.9 on Richter Scale strikes Los Angeles George Bush 'crosses the Rubicon' and dismantles US democratic constitution with backing from the senate to deal with unprecedented global crisis. 2008 House prices in the UK suffer faltering growth in 2007 (3%) but rally strongly in 2008 with double digit growth……. That’s for the bulls…..hit The “Perfect Economic Storm 2007” is upon us Anything else I have not considered? DB Just thought I would revisit my outlandish predictions from JAN 11 2007 So exactly one and a half years later economic meltdown is slowly bubbling away.......HBOS sadly did not collapse ...but came very close (hey there is still time yet!) and the thames barrier did not breach! and there was no LA earthquake! Oil went up from $50 to over $147 - I underestimated! but is currently at $120 and there was a bit of bad news for the banks, insurance companies and hedge funds. Asset prices inflated wildly but may have peaked - will we see deflation? (or a crack up boom?) Actually the real reason for revisiting this is just to highlight two other scenarios made in Jan 2007 (18 months ago): Middle East descends into chaos as US has to act to save the oil backed dollar from meltdown - tensions between Israel/US and Iran/other gulf states escalate into major conflict (possibly nuclear). George Bush 'crosses the Rubicon' and dismantles US democratic constitution with backing from the senate to deal with unprecedented global crisis. Not as unlikely now as they were at the beginning of 2007 I have a bad feeling DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endgame Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 You were right about the damn rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 You were right about the damn rain. [/quote Yeah - it is still raining. How is HBOS? (It's been nearly 2 years now.... DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 It's not a bad hit rate considering this was written in 2007.I suspect the politicians lack of honesty might have delayed a few of these predictions,but they are still very valid. the lack of transparency among the administration is much akin to peter putting as many fingers and toes as the can into the leaking dyke. Here's some of my predictions. late Nov/early dec 2008.....Miltary action against iran commences,stock markets tumble march 2009...e-9/11 event happens crippling the trading infratsructure of the west,ETF's are wiped out and there is a race for physical goods.Cash transactions are severely restricted and the ID card becomes the method of exchange,with a few small countries holding out(including UK).....web communications severely affected. april 2009,US declares a state of martial law under Obama administration,food supplies and oil shipments severely restricted ..US loses A/C fleet in the gulf due to missile attack. Aug 2009,other middle eastern nations engage in the conflict,russia continues to arm them,and a new front breaks out in south america,with russian backed bolivia/venezuela witholding oil shipments to the US.Oil prices rise to $250 a barrel.Still no internet communications. Mar 2010.. Similtaneous WMD(probably viral/biological) attack on western financial centres..london and new york the most badly affected.Casualties in london alone said to number in excess of 20000.US responds with nuclear strike on iran and syria. EU place trade embargo on UK/US and the UN initiates both countries into a state of quarantine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 HPC Economic Almanac 2007Jan 2007 – Dec 2007 UK Interest Rates rise 0.25 % Jan 10th and then 0.25% in March and June and October due to inflation spiraling upwards. CLOSE Huge £1.4 trillion consumer debt eventually reaches bursting point and precipitates a collapse in UK consumer spending. SPOT ON US Housing Market continues spiral downwards – losing 60% of peak value. ITS GETTING THERE Economic Growth falls off a cliff in the US and world’s largest economy goes into major recession. SPOT ON Dollar collapses by 50% due to astronomical current account deficit. ITS GETTING THERE Global Fiscal crisis YES Large riots break out in major cities ANOTHER YEAR OR SO Massive simultaneous terrorist attacks on a number of financial centres. NO - but 7/7 Saudi Arabia stability undermined - House of Saud under attack. NO Iran states it will go ahead and price oil in euros from march 2007 YES Middle East descends into chaos as US has to act to save the oil backed dollar from meltdown - tensions between Israel/US and Iran/other gulf states escalate into major conflict (possibly nuclear) NOT NUCLEAR - BUT CERTAINLY TENSION Huge oil price shock – oil rises to $120 a barrel. IT SPIKED FROM $50 IN JAN 2007 TO $150 PEAK BY JUN 2008 - CLOSE TO BULLS EYE $120 BY END OF 2007 Avian Flu mutates into human form in Asia and quickly spreads to Europe/US causing a global pandemic. NOPE - BUT THIS WILL HAPPEN Major Hedge Funds collapse in Global Market Stock Market Crash WELL WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT IT 2 YEARS AGO !!! Global Collapse of Major Banks. DITTO Global Economic Financial Meltdown DITTO Storms and flooding batter UK and Europe. I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WEATHER FORECASTER REM SUMMER 07 ? Worst Drought ever strikes Europe and North Africa causing huge water shortages. DONT THINK SO Thames Barrier breached – £50 billion damage BEING SILLY - LOSS OF CREDIBILITY Category 5 Hurricane ‘Dave’ batters the East coast of the States. Global Warming blamed. BEING SILLY - LOSS OF CREDIBILITY Huge inland flooding occurs in a number of countries worldwide. BEING SILLY - LOSS OF CREDIBILITY Massive Earthquake strikes Tokyo 8.1 on the Richter Scale. BEING SILLY - LOSS OF CREDIBILITY Nikkei collapse from 17000 pts to 8000pts DROPPED FROM 17000 TO A LOW OF 6997 - LEVELLED OUT AT 8000 - SPOT ON Major Insurance companies collapse SPOT ON WITH "AIG" ET AL. Assets prices continue to inflate wildly SPOT ON FOR 2007 War breaks out in Asia (North Korea/China neighboring states) WMD are used BEING SILLY - LOSS OF CREDIBILITY Chinas growth falters resulting in economic hard landing ITS HAPPENING ! Category 5 Typhoon batters major Asian City. GIVE UP THE WEATHER FORECASTING IT and Wireless communication attached by tech-terrorists SILLY Earthquake 7.9 on Richter Scale strikes Los Angeles SILLY George Bush 'crosses the Rubicon' and dismantles US democratic constitution with backing from the senate to deal with unprecedented global crisis. SILLY DB Just missed the two year anniversary of My 2007 Predictions - I seem to have been always too early by about 6 months to a year - e.g HBOS - SPOT ON - Too much foresight If you think this was Ok - MY 2008 ALMANAC was better DB PS - I am feeling another major downleg coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Just missed the two year anniversary of My 2007 Predictions - I seem to have been always too early by about 6 months to a year - e.g HBOS - SPOT ON - Too much foresight If you think this was Ok - MY 2008 ALMANAC was better DB PS - I am feeling another major downleg coming. Posted this next lot exactly one year later (added in commentary after) Jan 4 2008 10.40 PM Anyone got any predictions for 2008. I have some to get the ball rolling (likely events - no meteor strikes or magnetic pole reversals!): * UK cuts Interest rates 0.25% On Jan 10th, followed by a total of 5 more 0.25% cuts throughout the year bring rates down by 1.5% to 4% by year end 2008 Almost - try half that * Fed cuts Interest rates by 0.5% on Jan 30th and follows with 4 more 0.25% cuts throughout year, bring rates down to 2.75 by year end. Down to zero * Interest Rate cuts have no effect on increasing consumer demand or business expansions True * Major increases in unemployment in UK US Yep * Consumers are Debt Saturated Well that wasn't so much a prediction as a statement of the current situation * Sub prime become a problem in UK "There is no sub-prime in the UK!!!" * The Pound reaches parity with Euro - plans are put in place to scrap sterling. Yeah baby! * House Prices fall 15% on average in UK and US in 2008. Oh yeah!!! * Further Bank collapses in US & UK OOOOHH YEAH! * Insurance companies collapse AIG * Inflation rises in first 6 months but is subdued by the beginning of deflation. Hell yeah! * UK & US both go into recession Q2 Out by one quarter * Oil Price collapses to $40 per barrel Oh baby, this is good stuff * Commoditry prices collapse Yep Yep yep * Gold falls to $500 per ounce No, still 50% above this * DEFLATIONARY FORCES HAVE COME INTO PLAY. Think so - matter of opinion! * UK US Stockmarkets have major crash Oh yes * Nikkei levels out at 10000 pts Did do then Down to 8,500 * Bush takes major military action and crosses the rubicon..... Nah, he pussied out of invading Iran Reckon I did better in 2008 ! DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Have you done 2009? Or will you need to tank up on Prozac first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Long Now Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Come on then. Predictions for 2009 smartiepants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Come on then. Predictions for 2009 smartiepants Thought you'd never ask Posted this on Dec 31st 2008 - please feel free to check my posts (2007, 2008, 2009) 2009 Forecast: The Pound reaches lowest point of exchange to Euro early 2009 (March) (£1 = Eur 0.96) and then regains strength to finish year at ( £1 = Eur 1.30). Might be out on this date wise Euroland economy goes into recession Q2 Think they are already in recession DOH ! Irish/Spanish property market continues to tank. Ireland approaches ECB and IMF for financial help The AIB nationalisation is only the aperitif Santander and other big European banks and insurance companies are given bailouts by ECB (Q2) Ireland is up the swanny - Iceland V2 - as someone said tonight Further UK banks seek government help and part nationalised ones seek further recapitalisation (Q2) Oil finds a ‘floor’ at $30 per barrel and stagnates around this level as ‘very low demand’ but as supply and investment by BP et al. starts to be cut there will be occasional bounces coupled with effect of $ devaluation - but still lack of demand pushes it lower. US dollar drops off a cliff 2nd half of 2009 US embark on a massive policy of quantitative easing which has minimal effect on the $40 trillion gaping global debt black-hole. US Bailouts continue apace in second half of year Gold will fall to a low-point of $725 per oz early 2009 before moving upwards later on in year to $1000 per oz as $ devalues Inflation in UK falls to below 1% by May 2009. UK Growth for 2009 –3.2% biggest contraction since 1946. Global economy officially in recession by Q4 UK interest rates are reduced by 0.5% 3 times by August 2009 to leave UK base rate at 0.5% Well got the first one right - easy bag this though UK banks do not relax lending and continue to argue with government as have no money due to huge deleveraging of assets. Unemployment in the UK increases by 1.5 million people by end of 2009 50,000 firms and small businesses go bust by end of 2009 Repossessions should hit 130,000 by end of year but government brings in changes in law to bailout the reckless House prices continue to fall on average by 1% per month and finish 2009 12% down on Dec 2008 Further massive frauds are uncovered in the financial industry (especially in Ireland). I've got a thing for these sly micks - ever since I noticed the colour of their skin and hair had swapped to what it should be traditionally (orange and white). Ireland epitomises this whole ponzi scheme 60% of Hedge funds go bust by end of 2009 US Stock market DOW rallies to 10000 pts by March 2009 but sees new lows of 7000 by end of year 2009 Japanese Nikkei DOW rallies to 10000 pts by March 2009 but sees new lows of 7000 by end of year 2009 UK FTSE 100 rallies to 5000 pts by March 2009 but sees new lows of 3500 by end of year 2009 Commodities prices find a bottom towards end of year Yen gets devalued. Trade restrictions cause major global tensions and escalate global contraction as national protectionism comes to fore front. Sorry lads - its a bit tamer then 2007/8 - I'm spent...... May come back in a few days when I have put my mind to it proper. DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 Come on then. Predictions for 2009 smartiepants All Bets are off You have very little time left Get out of Cash and into Assets ......Gold..........Land............Property DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Teaboy Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 All Bets are offYou have very little time left Get out of Cash and into Assets ......Gold..........Land............Property DB i'm loving the full circle. Jump back on the property ladder everyone........ it's going to the moon ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted February 14, 2009 Share Posted February 14, 2009 i'm loving the full circle. Jump back on the property ladder everyone........ it's going to the moon ! In Real Terms "No" In Nominal Terms "Yes" DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 In Real Terms "No"In Nominal Terms "Yes" DB You have 6 months to get out of cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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