hedi Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 the more i read the more silly it gets. the city in shock at ir rise. brown and the boe warn that rates might have to rise.(may) consumer pick up after a lull at the end of the year and begining of this year. consumers hit by big energy rises. house prices steam ahead. homeowners hit by rate rise(£15) more people employed. unemployment rises. economy on a sound footing with growth exceeding mr browns forcast. interest rate rise .25 pct sends shockwaves through city. level of debt burden not a problem,say analyists and merv. huge rise in reposessions and insolvences us raises rate, us dollar falls in value us puts rates on hold, us dollar falls in value 2005 uk house prices 30 pct overvalued IMF price rises across the board 2006, good spring bounce 2006, chance of hpc in uk 4.37 pct IMF banks announce doubling of bad debt provisions uk debt burden increasing at 18 billion a month, banks announce growth in lending, boosts share price. etc i actually dont think any of them have a clue what is going on. and that is the worrying thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 the more i read the more silly it gets. the city in shock at ir rise. brown and the boe warn that rates might have to rise.(may) consumer pick up after a lull at the end of the year and begining of this year. consumers hit by big energy rises. house prices steam ahead. homeowners hit by rate rise(£15) more people employed. unemployment rises. economy on a sound footing with growth exceeding mr browns forcast. interest rate rise .25 pct sends shockwaves through city. level of debt burden not a problem,say analyists and merv. huge rise in reposessions and insolvences us raises rate, us dollar falls in value us puts rates on hold, us dollar falls in value 2005 uk house prices 30 pct overvalued IMF price rises across the board 2006, good spring bounce 2006, chance of hpc in uk 4.37 pct IMF banks announce doubling of bad debt provisions uk debt burden increasing at 18 billion a month, banks announce growth in lending, boosts share price. etc i actually dont think any of them have a clue what is going on. and that is the worrying thing. Great post. 100% on the mark. I don't think the government or anyone else has a clue what is going on and what is going to come down on them next. The Miracle Economy is just a mass of contradictions as its name implies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 (edited) Great post and spot on. We keep hearing a mixed bag of opinions! Edit: From so called experts!! Edited August 10, 2006 by OzzMosiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BARO Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 I agree ! It's all because you are looking for something that's not there. You are looking for your HOUSE PRICE CRASH and CRASH OF THE ECONOMY. It won't happen !!! You try to find signs everywhere, Interest Rates Rise, FTSE, Oil Prices etc. The economy is moving smoothy, there might be ups and downs, but nothing to worry about. And one more thing: In case of recesion, if the house prices crash, they will crash last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OurDayWillCome Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 I agree ! It's all because you are looking for something that's not there. You are looking for your HOUSE PRICE CRASH and CRASH OF THE ECONOMY. It won't happen !!! You try to find signs everywhere, Interest Rates Rise, FTSE, Oil Prices etc. The economy is moving smoothy, there might be ups and downs, but nothing to worry about. And one more thing: In case of recesion, if the house prices crash, they will crash last. Are you being serious? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renter1 Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 I agree ! It's all because you are looking for something that's not there. You are looking for your HOUSE PRICE CRASH and CRASH OF THE ECONOMY. It won't happen !!! You try to find signs everywhere, Interest Rates Rise, FTSE, Oil Prices etc. The economy is moving smoothy, there might be ups and downs, but nothing to worry about. And one more thing: In case of recesion, if the house prices crash, they will crash last. Why are you on this site then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FaTB Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 I very often post bearish links to a freind of mine, but for every one I send him, he sends one back saying the complete opposite !! It's very frustrating. :angry: I think you just have to use a bit of common sense, gut feeling, and the ocassional educated guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 You are looking for your HOUSE PRICE CRASH and CRASH OF THE ECONOMY. It won't happen !!! Please explain why 'It won't happen'!! Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 Please explain why 'It won't happen'!! Thanks! the economic cycle... It only exists because people are surprised by it doing exactly the same thing everytime. Yawn.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BARO Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 Please explain why 'It won't happen'!! Thanks! Hi Ozz I will try to explain as much as i can. 1.Can i answer your question with a question - What makes you think that the house prices will crash ? 2.In order for the house prices to crash there needs to be serious long lasting recession - which doesn't seem likely at the moment. 3.Oppoite to what everyone thinks in this web site - the economy is going well and the country is going well. Interest rates increase, increasing oil prices and ups and downs in the FTSE are reasons not serious enough to point at possible recession. 4.Unemployment is very low - 5%. 5.In my opinion the house prices are not that high - forget the adverts on the estate agent windows - these are not the real selling prices. You can wipe 10-15% and you will get the real selling price. I think in the last few years house prices have increased with average 5-7% a year, nothing like 10-20% or 50-60%. 6.There is no housing shortage, the problem is that some people own 2-3 houses and the first time buyers are pushed out of the market. The first time buyers represent small number of the population and they on their own cannot cause the house price crash. 7.Incrase in interest rates won't cause House Price Crash. If the interest rates reach 10% then may be. But 5-6% won affect the housing market that much. I think if the rates reach 5.25 (they will next year) the house prices will stay still in some areas reverse a bit. But house price crash won't happen. 8.In case of recession people will cut other spending (holidays, cars, luxury, food) but they will have to be really broke to lose their house. Although the might be increase in repossessions, it won't be enough t cause house price crash. I think house prices are a bit overpriced, but not much probably 10-20% and I believe they sell 10% less than the asking price which seems realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charmer Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 Hmm.. Of course, hindsight was a wonderful thing in '92. Sure it will be again in '08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 1.Can i answer your question with a question An approach beloved of politicians. Are you A Nu-Labour stooge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedi Posted August 10, 2006 Author Share Posted August 10, 2006 this is the one argument that all bulls and those saying that a hpc will not happen. IF THE ECONOMY IS SWIMMING ALONG JUST FINE, HOW COME 0.25PCT ON INTEREST RATES IS SO TERRIFYING. HOW COME RAISING RATES TO 5.25 PCT WILL BE DISASTEROUS, AND HOW COME EVERY VI IS SO TERRIFIED OF IR RISES. i have been around ,and for years rates were between 8 and 15 pct. 15 years ago we laughed at 4 pct rates, something that just would not happen again. well they are here and now people laugh at rates going to 6 pct as inconceivable. trust me, if everything is just so, then analyists would not be ranting about a triffling .25 pct rate rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 (edited) 2.In order for the house prices to crash there needs to be serious long lasting recession - which doesn't seem likely at the moment. that's funny. The last housing crash PRECEDED the recession 3.Oppoite to what everyone thinks in this web site - the economy is going well and the country is going well. Interest rates increase, increasing oil prices and ups and downs in the FTSE are reasons not serious enough to point at possible recession. The economy is on a knife edge. It also cycles. Always has, always will. Why are US rates (traditionally 1.5%-2% lower than ours) now at 5.25% - 0.5% higher? Is anyone going to invest in the UK if they can choose the US? 4.Unemployment is very low - 5%. Not true 2.5 million are on Incapacity Benefit alone. Then add on the number of people out of work but able to work. If 20 million are of working age then I'd say it's SIGNIFICANTLY more than 5%.....and job losses are appearing every week. The private sector has had NO GROWTH for 5 years. All the growth (that Brown boasts about) has come from inflating the public sector - paid for by tax payers money. Oh dear. I don't need to tell you about wealth creation do I? 5.In my opinion the house prices are not that high Are you SERIOUS? Despite a whole section of society being priced out (FTB's), record amounts of lending and borrowing multiples? The first time buyers represent small number of the population and they on their own cannot cause the house price crash. WHo props up the bottom of the market then? Don't say BTL, there aren't enough of them. 7.Increase in interest rates won't cause House Price Crash. If the interest rates reach 10% then may be. But 5-6% won affect the housing market that much. Use this http://mortgages.charcolonline.co.uk/mortg...calculator.aspx put in a figure of say £150,000 (less than the average price, I hasten to add) over 25 years at 4.5%. The up the IR to 6% or more. 10% will sink the whole market without a doubt. 6% will damage it. 8.In case of recession people will cut other spending (holidays, cars, luxury, food) but they will have to be really broke to lose their house. Although the might be increase in repossessions, it won't be enough t cause house price crash. There were plenty of reposessions in the last crash, and there wasn't ANYWHERE NEAR the amount of borrowing taking place. People will cut spending but given that council tax, utility bills, oil and others are rising ABOVE inflation, it may not be enough. This country is going broke (thanks to the Middle East conflict, immigration farce etc). Taxes are set to go higher, have no fear. Each one of your points is baloney. Edited August 10, 2006 by pioneer31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSEHUNTER Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 Well done Hedi for pointing out just what I was thinking!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonbrown Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 that's funny. The last housing crash PRECEDED the recession There is a scarily clever lady on the Bloomberg site saying that going by the models there is a 40% chance of recession in the US. She says here personal feeling is that, due to the downturn in the housing market and negative sentiment generated because of it, the chances are more than 50% of a recession. The housing downturn seems to have come first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasket37 Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 2.5 million are on Incapacity Benefit alone. Then add on the number of people out of work but able to work. good post! The 2.5 million figure you quote probably comes from the Sheffield Hallam Uni. study. I can't lay my hands on it at the moment so here is an excerpt from a piece by Scheherazade Daneshkhu in the Financial Times on July 5, 2006. "John Hutton had one particularly grim statistic yesterday, writes Scheherazade Daneshkhu. "If you have been on incapacity benefit for more than two years, you are more likely to die or retire than ever get back to work," the work and pensions secretary said. Since it came to power in 1997, the government has been trying to get people off disability benefits and into work. So far it has had only limited success, in large part because of employers' reluctance to hire people with a history of disability. The number of claimants of incapacity benefits has been steady at about 2.7m since the mid-1990s. In a recent survey, the institute found that one in 10 employers admitted they would not consider hiring incapacity benefit claimants with a history of physical ill-health, and one in five made the same judgment for claimants with a history of mental illness. Yet a third of new incapacity benefit claimants cite mental health conditions, usually stress or depression. Given these obstacles, the government's aim of getting 1m people off incapacity benefit and into work seems ambitious..." nice graph here re unemployment - http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12 Each one of your points is baloney. yup! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted August 10, 2006 Share Posted August 10, 2006 nice graph here re unemployment - http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12 yup! That graph is something else . Check it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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