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House Price Crash Forum

hedi

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Everything posted by hedi

  1. as the funding for lending scheme for mortgages stopped in January, some commentators supposed that banks and building societies might have to increase retail deposit rates to try and attract money to lend. this is not happening at all. are we now to suppose that our banking system has learnt from the americans and that from now on, our banks no longer require depositors cash. if so this is a major game changer. any thoughts, as to how they are getting money and from whom, and is there any reason why they should bother with retail depositors ever again. it would be helpful to know so one can alter ones investment targets and expectations.
  2. hi, we all know that the government is subsidising new builds and their buyers, is there any way of knowing what effect this is having on the hpi for nationwide and halfax, as I am sure that I remember that new houses seem to have a larger effect when these companies work out price rises. if so then the rises simply reflect a mini boom in London and newbuilds where the builders are able to increase the values as the government is acting as the bank of mum and dad. it might be interesting know,
  3. it seems that its back to normal in the housing market, interest only loans , ray boulger on the tv, prices going up every month, increasing multiples on salaries, a huge drop in people on this site,location location location is back, its go go go. as with all crashes they never happen when they are expected, and for years now the housing market was expected to crash, especially here on this site. but lets face it ,it hasn t . it will happen, but not as we know it, jim.
  4. the numbers viewing have really gone down , it used to be 2000 nearly all the time now its under 700, has the towel been throwin in?
  5. i think we can finally accept that the time has arrived to do something. its no good trying to judge market timing, but it is time to get out of cash and out of sterling. i can not begin to tell you where you should put you money, or when. but it is clear, that there are now no circumstances, in which the govenment will do the right thing, they have completely lost control of the economy.the entire political and financial class are so thouroughly dishonest , that to even retain a mere glimmer of hope that they could start to behave in a reasoned and right minded way is foolishness. but do not loose hope, europe is only 5 pct of the worlds population, and the rest of humanity is prospering quite nicely thank you. we are lucky in that the markets here in the uk allow us to buy into the rest of the world, if you can. start.
  6. have been looking and commenting on this site now for years, and have decided to buy. is a little worrying but i have completely lost faith that anyone in authority has any sense of morality towards what is the right thing to do. the property was originally on the market at 295.000, hopelessly optimistic according to the agent, then reduced to 225,000 and am buying at 200,000. sounds ok but these are worrying times. am paying cash. my real concern is the cash part, i am getting increasingly worrried that the way of the political world is so corrupted that holding cash is probabilly more dangerous than holding a property. am i convinced that i am doing the right thing, not really . i have bored people ridged about why i think houses are stupidly over valued. but when the facts change one should change ones opinion with them. is 200,000 for a house in the se of england ,an hour from london a lot of money. ???? i dont know anymore. a rolls royce, the cheapest is 250,000. an equivalent bentley is 240,000, a weeks hire for 10 on a super yacht is 190,000, a business class return ticket to australia is 6,000, a new range rover is 70,000 (and no shortage of them on the road) . it just makes one wonder if 200,000 is a lot of money anymore. what is of concern is that the rich, for all their annoyance, are not stupid. thats why they are rich. and they are spending money like water at the moment, 20m here on a flat 30m there. 40 m on a painting, 20m on a vase. i have often pondered as to why the rich seem to have been getting richer and richer over this crisis. but have concluded that they haven't been. its us, we've been getting poorer and poorer, its just been hidden in the figures. in 2007 bread was bout 50p a loaf, now 120p. butter 45p now 160p, petrol 79p now 132p. inflation for things you actually need has sky rocketed. i remember thinking about a citeon c1 in 2005, new was 4995 on the road. now nearly 8000. and this is all during the biggest financial crisis since the 30s. two years of this govenment has convinced me that the polices of brown and new labour are still with us.isee no sign whatsoever of change. while interest rates are this low there is not going to be a huge crash, and rates are not going to go up for years. this might mean the japanese route but with inflation to boot. are houses really going to be 70.000 again ? or £20.000 flats above shops. are we really going to see that again? i am not trying to convince anybody either way about buying, just airing thoughts i suppose. and trying to get my head around what might actually be happening out there. still there we are , any thoughts appreciated.
  7. sorry, my mistake, has been answered, many thanks for that. hedi
  8. hi, thanks for those posts but neither are the video i was looking for. it was basically a cartoon showing how bankers work and how it all stated in italy,and the money multipliers work and then ending with an interest monster eating away money.
  9. hi, someone a little while ago posted a really good youtube clip of where money comes from, a sort of history of banking and ending with the interest monster. i would be grateful to find again. i need to use it to explain to a friend. thanks
  10. hi, a request for somebody, there was a really good youtube video with cartoons of where many comes from, a sort of banking history resuling in todays interest rate monster. if anyone can remember which thread it was under would be most grateful. thanks
  11. no this is not QE. the advantage of QE is that it does not have to be paid back, resulting in money destruction; putting in 100 euros that eventually that has be be taken out again when paid off leads to money destruction. secondly QE has no interest attached to it, so does not cause any further money destruction;ie money being taken out of the merry go round to pay interest. in view of our banking system of debt money creation, QE has a certain logic, ie it creates money that does not have interest or repayment. what the ECB is doing is actually making things worse in the long run to ease the short term. like gving the banks a new loan to help them pay off the old loan, except the new loan also requires paying back with interest. no different than getting as new credit card when you are maxed out on your old one. eventually it will blow up in their faces. its all about kicking the can down the road hoping that something will come along, and they have the nerve to call the bankers reckless for be short-termist.
  12. hedi

    Stop Moaning.

    true. so would have been better buying oil than that 1m house, oil 1,600 dpb if bread £7 a loaf.
  13. hedi

    Stop Moaning.

    all true, but easier to think and believe, than live by, as you know.
  14. hedi

    Stop Moaning.

    a lot of people on here recently are getting disgruntled about how things have panned out. i personally left the market a few years ago with a hopefull expection that the boom was over. well, the boom is over. outside of london houses have been slipping somewhat slowly, but slipping. no there has not been a crash. well with .5 pct base rate that not really a supprise. the govenment has done all it can, along with banks who would go bust,lets be honest if a crash happened, to maintain prices as best they can. a lot of us took the perfectly rational view that booms come to an end one way or another. we never invisaged a reasonably sound economic state printing money, who did. but that was our gamble. thats what investment is. the question is what to do now, not bitch about how we might have got it wrong. if you need a large mortgage to buy then a house must me looked upon as an investment that can lose money. if you are buying for cash, then it somewhere to house you rent free. as an investment , i think that the housing market has little going for it long term. there are many aspect often overlooked. forget about short term things like interet rates and btl, they can in some ways be contrived by amanipulation, but other things can not. the big one is financial demographics. simple logic, poorer people cannot afford more expensive housing. and we are going to get poorer, in real terms, and barring some unknown unknown thats a fact. this applies to the whole of europe. the young are the hpc saviours. if you are fifty or sixty and sitting on your 1m pound property hoping to sell in 10 years for 2m and retire, i am affraid you are in for a nasty shock. where on earth do you think someone who is 30 now is going to get that sort of money, when they are years away from their first flat. and remember baby boomers, there are an awful lot of you who will all want to be selling at the same time, just as you all wanted to buy at the same time. (incidently forcing up prices) and how many are going to want to sell the second homes as well. demographics is the real clue to long term investment. and from what i can see we are going japanese. moreso in the rest of europe than here. the real question is what now. as far as i can see the govenment and bank are trying to stear the good ship uk economy( and west in total) between the rocks of depressive deflation and the waterfall of hyper inflation ( consequence of money printing) . now at the moment it looks like they are succeeding.but the straights of water between the two are getting narrower and there is no sign of open ocean yet, what ever they tell you. baised on historical evidence the good ship britian will hit the rocks or go over the water fall. the problem is that the debts are so vast that depression could come or they are printing so much money it could be hyper inflation. now im no expert and from what i read no one really has any idea which way this will go. so all i think you can do is hedge your bets, have some multinational assests, have some cash. and jump one way or the other when it becomes clearer. accept that you are not an expert and that you are going to become poorer in one way or another, keep an eye to trends stop worrying about volitility and try to come out of this with as mouch as you can save.
  15. so what, he ll be paying far more in tax and eventual death duties than he ever gets out.
  16. i believe, and shoot me down if i am wrong, that when they say saving rate, it includes paying down of debt. ie i owe 100 and pay off 50 i have technically saved 50. not really my idea of saving, but i think thats how it works.
  17. funny this topic, something similar has been happening around us. i always go for pretty much the same walk at the weekends on saturday afternoon, and recently the numbers of people i meet has been increasing enourmously. and i was just this saturday musing to myself whether they were shunning the shops and getting out. the weather has not been that great either. so i am very supprised by all these people i see. feeling the pinch, and shopping no longer a recreational activity?
  18. gosh you must get through some salt and vinegar,what with all those chips on your shoulders
  19. 100 percent accurate. do these eurocrate really believe that the italians or greeks are going to take pay cuts and work harder, because if they do they are congenital idiots.
  20. while i sift through all the economic stats that come out, and read all the articules about house prices, from the bulls to the bears. the ups and down of percentage points over the months, the mortgage figures ,the ratio to earnings , the interest rate analysis, etc etc.. i am getting bored with it all. the problem is that its very hard to get through to people that things have changed. and they have. regardless of what govenments does or what people may say, they have changed. and the result is that barring completely unforeseen economic circumstances, the west, and that means europe and the usa, and that means us, are going to get poorer. forget the austerity measures, the pensions troubles that lie ahead, there is no stopping it we are going to get poorer. either by lower wages or increased inflation without wage increase, we are going to get poorer. the reasons are many, from not working to a bloated state, to the east getting richer. now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer. because we are. so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.
  21. while i sift through all the economic stats that come out, and read all the articules about house prices, from the bulls to the bears. the ups and down of percentage points over the months, the mortgage figures ,the ratio to earnings , the interest rate analysis, etc etc.. i am getting bored with it all. the problem is that its very hard to get through to people that things have changed. and they have. regardless of what govenments does or what people may say, they have changed. and the result is that barring completely unforeseen economic circumstances, the west, and that means europe and the usa, and that means us, are going to get poorer. forget the austerity measures, the pensions troubles that lie ahead, there is no stopping it we are going to get poorer. either by lower wages or increased inflation without wage increase, we are going to get poorer. the reasons are many, from not working to a bloated state, to the east getting richer. now this is where to start the arguement with the bulls. its very easy to make the point that as a nation we are going to get poorer. because we are. so now can they try to explain how a poorer people can afford more expensive places to live. rent or buy.
  22. there seems to be no limit to the revoltingness to this man and his party. in a strange way i hope that the libs go in with gorden brown, and in six months we have an election and the libs are wiped from the map. for them to support a prime minister and party, when in an election 71 pct of those voting have rejected them is beyond a disgrace. the only good part will be the end of clegg and the liberals once and for all. and maybe the people of this country will finally get all the crap coming to them that they deserve.
  23. i have to admit i am at a bit of a loss. everywhere there are new cars, the shops tills never stop ringing. the stock market rises everyday. stores report bumper profets up 40 pct 100 pct 300 pct. the banks report record new deposits. house prices rise. it just goes on. but.. 2.5 million part time workers want full time jobs, mortgage lending way down, equity withdrawal way down, unemplyment looming. pay deals way down, credit card defaults up, cost of living rising by the day, fuel up, interest earnings down. 2.5 million unemployed, record household debt, record govenment debt. forget qe, where are indervidual people getting all this money from. for as far as i can see F*** knows and he's not telling.
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