cheeseandbeans Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 Firstly, i must say that i never expected to find a financial forum so useful on a site about crashing house prices. Lots of easy to digest useful info here. But i must say i find quite a lot of posts are very bearish in tone. I suppose that this is to be expected, but i've been surprised by the amount of people not only looking to make money, but to also hedge against future financial turmoil in one way or another. I am of the belief that if it is a bull or bear market depends on your personal exposure, and usually look for ways to be with the bulls and avoid the bears. I don't think we're on the edge of economic armageddon, i believe the market usually finds a way, but the more i read the more i feel like getting heavily into gold (in small tradeable quantities) and stashing a good quantity of tinned food in the larder. Am i reading things wrong or is this going to be the decade of the bear? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodgamegoodgame Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 Firstly, i must say that i never expected to find a financial forum so useful on a site about crashing house prices. Lots of easy to digest useful info here. But i must say i find quite a lot of posts are very bearish in tone. I suppose that this is to be expected, but i've been surprised by the amount of people not only looking to make money, but to also hedge against future financial turmoil in one way or another. I am of the belief that if it is a bull or bear market depends on your personal exposure, and usually look for ways to be with the bulls and avoid the bears. I don't think we're on the edge of economic armageddon, i believe the market usually finds a way, but the more i read the more i feel like getting heavily into gold (in small tradeable quantities) and stashing a good quantity of tinned food in the larder. Am i reading things wrong or is this going to be the decade of the bear? Don't want to depress you too much but try googling "peak oil". At least if you are aware of what "could" be happening you can try and protect yourself to some extent. I don't think it'd being Bearish, it's just being realistic in view of some very convincing evidence by credible people who know what they are talking about and don't have a vested interest in the outcome. As oil output declines and the price continues to go up, one business after another is going to become unviable. You don't need a degree in Finance to understand that, it's just common sense. Economic growth has always been reliant on cheap energy, and that is finished now. So unless they have another comparable energy sourse up their sleeves that no one knows about yet, what other conclusion can you draw other than slow (or possibly rapid) economic meltdown? Btw, I'd much rather be an optimist, but you just can't deny what appears to be happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 Go out and get some fresh air and sunshine. You'll soon feel better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodgamegoodgame Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 Go out and get some fresh air and sunshine. You'll soon feel better Yeah, you're right. Don't know what came over me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseandbeans Posted August 7, 2006 Author Share Posted August 7, 2006 Don't want to depress you too much but try googling "peak oil". At least if you are aware of what "could" be happening you can try and protect yourself to some extent. I don't think it'd being Bearish, it's just being realistic in view of some very convincing evidence by credible people who know what they are talking about and don't have a vested interest in the outcome. As oil output declines and the price continues to go up, one business after another is going to become unviable. You don't need a degree in Finance to understand that, it's just common sense. Economic growth has always been reliant on cheap energy, and that is finished now. So unless they have another comparable energy sourse up their sleeves that no one knows about yet, what other conclusion can you draw other than slow (or possibly rapid) economic meltdown? Btw, I'd much rather be an optimist, but you just can't deny what appears to be happening. But the fact remains that the actual cost of the oil we consume is still a minor part of the overall cost of a product. Whether tax or other costs make up the rest depends on the product, but the fact remains, even at todays prices oil is still very cheap. I would suggest our economy is at the end of living lazily on cheap oil, but oil is still cheap and will be for the forseeable future in comparison to alternatives. Therefore the cost may go up dramatically, but the percentage that increase is reflected in final retail prices of products should be minimal. Oil prices may cause the whole world economy to collapse in the future, but for the next 20-30 years i don't see it happening, there's too much fat to trim before that could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodgamegoodgame Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 (edited) But the fact remains that the actual cost of the oil we consume is still a minor part of the overall cost of a product. Whether tax or other costs make up the rest depends on the product, but the fact remains, even at todays prices oil is still very cheap. I would suggest our economy is at the end of living lazily on cheap oil, but oil is still cheap and will be for the forseeable future in comparison to alternatives. Therefore the cost may go up dramatically, but the percentage that increase is reflected in final retail prices of products should be minimal. Oil prices may cause the whole world economy to collapse in the future, but for the next 20-30 years i don't see it happening, there's too much fat to trim before that could happen. Ok, I hope you're right. How about the proposed Iranian oil bourse then? link Edited August 7, 2006 by goodgamegoodgame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseandbeans Posted August 7, 2006 Author Share Posted August 7, 2006 Ok, I hope you're right. How about the proposed Iranian oil bourse then? link Aaah sheesh, this was the type of post i was talking about.... Logic says the market will work things out but then maybe not... Damn ignorant bliss, where are you when i need you ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 Firstly, i must say that i never expected to find a financial forum so useful on a site about crashing house prices. Lots of easy to digest useful info here. But i must say i find quite a lot of posts are very bearish in tone. I suppose that this is to be expected, but i've been surprised by the amount of people not only looking to make money, but to also hedge against future financial turmoil in one way or another. I am of the belief that if it is a bull or bear market depends on your personal exposure, and usually look for ways to be with the bulls and avoid the bears. I don't think we're on the edge of economic armageddon, i believe the market usually finds a way, but the more i read the more i feel like getting heavily into gold (in small tradeable quantities) and stashing a good quantity of tinned food in the larder. Am i reading things wrong or is this going to be the decade of the bear? HPC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodgamegoodgame Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 Aaah sheesh, this was the type of post i was talking about.... Logic says the market will work things out but then maybe not... Damn ignorant bliss, where are you when i need you ! I met a highly paid analyst from a big global financial institution the other day. He is responsible for calculating market risks. He'd never heard of the phrase peak oil and thought the UK economy was in a sound state. Oh dear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 I met a highly paid analyst from a big global financial institution the other day. He is responsible for calculating market risks. He'd never heard of the phrase peak oil and thought the UK economy was in a sound state. Oh dear. I met a senior member of the US Armed Forces the other day. He is responsible for developing and testing new military equipment. He'd never heard of the Roswell conspiracy and thought flying saucers were a figment of my imagination. Oh dear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodgamegoodgame Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 (edited) I met a senior member of the US Armed Forces the other day. He is responsible for developing and testing new military equipment. He'd never heard of the Roswell conspiracy and thought flying saucers were a figment of my imagination. Oh dear. So the fact that oil output is struggling to meet increased demand, and the UK economy being driven by a credit binge for the last 7 years or so are conspiracies are they? Btw, I believe the Roswell incident did happen, which does actually give me some hope, as they may well have managed to reverse engineer the crashed spaceship to see what powered it. Something that was touched on by Gary McKinnon who spent 5 years hacking into Nasa. Edited August 7, 2006 by goodgamegoodgame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 So the fact that oil output is struggling to meet increased demand, and the UK economy being driven by a credit binge for the last 7 years or so are conspiracies are they? No, the interpretation of the causal factors and consequences of those events are conspiracies. I can agree with the observations without having to agree with your explanations or analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodgamegoodgame Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 No, the interpretation of the causal factors and consequences of those events are conspiracies. I can agree with the observations without having to agree with your explanations or analysis. But the financial analyst hadn't even made the initial observation, so wouldn't of been able to interpret an analysis of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamSpartacus Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 But the financial analyst hadn't even made the initial observation, so wouldn't of been able to interpret an analysis of them. The phrase 'peak oil' is generally used to refer not just to a simple observation about output levels but a surrounding prediction of declining output, astronomic rises in energy costs and catastrophic results for the world economy. I'm sure the analyst knows that oil is a finite resource, even if he hadn't spent hours reading the predictions of doomsayers on the internet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodgamegoodgame Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 The phrase 'peak oil' is generally used to refer not just to a simple observation about output levels but a surrounding prediction of declining output, astronomic rises in energy costs and catastrophic results for the world economy. I'm sure the analyst knows that oil is a finite resource, even if he hadn't spent hours reading the predictions of doomsayers on the internet... Yes, I know what it refers to. Guess he must know something I don't if he's never bothered to research the main generic term that refers to the decline of the oil age which many industry experts are claiming we have now entered. I mean it's not really any kind of risk to the markets at all is it. Like you said, you don't have to agree with the analysis, but surely it's his job to be aware of the various different opinions out there isn't it? Peak oil is now mainstream. I got the impression he was of the vague "the oil won't run out for another 50 years" mentality, which is somewhat missing the point isn't it. It isn't even on his radar. You do like to keep moving your goalposts don't you clever boy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its time to buy Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 But i must say i find quite a lot of posts are very bearish in tone. I suppose that this is to be expected, but i've been surprised by the amount of people not only looking to make money, but to also hedge against future financial turmoil in one way or another. For a housepricecrash to happen with real falls of about 30-40% there will major disruptions to the economy and money flows and values I am not surprised people are hedging The biggest housing bubble of all time ? What happens next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its time to buy Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Heres an interesting but relevant article "Buy gold now: dollar devaluation threat?" http://www.moneyweek.com/file/3143/investi...y-gold-now.html Written about a year ago - lists some parralells to now and the 1970s Long article, but makes a good read Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrew_uk Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 It's just insurance. I'm 95% sure nothing big will go wrong in the next ten years but i'm not 100%. Fiat money collapse, peak oil, bird flu or a major depression a la 1930's are all possible if unlikely. I'm just making sure i'm protected as like most insurance it takes away any worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stumpy Posted August 14, 2006 Share Posted August 14, 2006 So the fact that oil output is struggling to meet increased demand, and the UK economy being driven by a credit binge for the last 7 years or so are conspiracies are they? Btw, I believe the Roswell incident did happen, which does actually give me some hope, as they may well have managed to reverse engineer the crashed spaceship to see what powered it. Something that was touched on by Gary McKinnon who spent 5 years hacking into Nasa. I thought that just meant that we were becoming Americans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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