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House Price Crash Forum


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About andrew_uk

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  1. I’m resurrecting my first ever post from 2004 so six years ago. My point at the time was to try to show the public opinion of the time and then update it every 12-18 months. You may or may not find it interesting but in 2004 we were in the grip of the housing boom. Unfortunately my first ever post has been deleted and in case others start getting removed due to age I’ve started again. I’ve included an update including all of them I could find. The original start at http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=3141&st=0 I’ve tried to highlight the most interesting points 20
  2. Time to resurrect this old old post. As promised I plan to add to this post every 6-12 months to show a property boom & bust in slow motion. House prices are like an oil tanker slow to turn but once they do it takes a long time for them to turn again. This is my fourth update on my first ever post. First post - November 2004 First Update - August 2006 (18 months later) second update - March 2007 (25 months later or 7 months since the last) third update - July 2007 (29 months later or 4 months since the last) this update - June 2008 (40 months later or 11 months since the last) This
  3. The point of this post is to give a long term perspective. In 2004 people truly could not imagine house prices falling. To say such a thing was ridiculed. People thought property was going to keep going up for the next ten, twenty, thirty years. I see articles about buying property for your children as if they must get a house now as otherwise they'll be stuck at home for ever (e.g. people assume that tomorrow will be much like today) I'm not trying to make out I was clever to sell in 2004 in fact I was a year early but having sold, rented and forgot about property it's much less stressful.
  4. Time for a third update on my first ever post, I haven't waited long this time but like an oil tanker turning once it starts to move it creates waves. First post - November 2004 First Update - August 2006 (18 months later) second update - March 2007 (25 months later or 7 months since the last) this update - July 2007 (29 months later) A housing bubble is slow to turn but I can now see the turn especially looking back to 2004 for inspiration. People called me an idiot for selling (Nov 2004): +It was honestly the best move I have ever made and gave me great joy to be out of a shit hole in
  5. Time for a second update on my first ever post First post - November 2004 First Update - August 2006 (18 months later) This update - March 2007 (25 months later or 7 months since the last) I hope people realise from this just how slowly a housing market changes. In a little over two years a lot has changed. My notes below compare to 2004. People called me an idiot for selling (Nov 2004): +Where I rent is a palace and so much better than anything I ever expected to live in. The general view is I've done very very well. +A few friends have recently put there houses up for sale as they th
  6. Hi All, I thought I'd add an update. I now KNOW we are the same as the dot com boom. Where I work someone working at goods in on 12K was telling me about: His retirement/investment property in Indian (bought off plan and still not finished but he does have pictures of various stages of building) His investment property in Turkey (another off plan) And how he's lined up to invest in a complex of flats in Bulgaria. (off plan again) He's aiming for investments totalling 120K on a 12K salary managed by taking equity out of his own house. Best of all the investments aren't even built yet. B
  7. I've always found the idea of no interest interesting. pardon the pun. My summary of the effects are: Wealth is more evenly distributed as the rich can't just sit back and make money. Investment and growth is stifled e.g. If your business is doing well you can't borrow to expand it Booms and busts are minimized (as is the economic cycle) Which explains why the middle east is economically more stable than europe but lags behind in growth. I know it was Mohammid who stated 'no interest' but I do wonder why. My thoughts are: 1) Against the jews As the jewish people were traditionally mone
  8. This is a question for any muslim boad members or those with experience of the subject. What investments are allowed under islamic law? Is there a Sunni/Shia split. Or is it an individual decision. I ask this as I found a website arguing that some mutual funds/shares are allowed. They argued that halal companies that have cash assets that generate interest/use bank loans are allowed. The reason being you are a minority shareholder but demanding that you you oppose the interest related activities at the AGM and donate all profits attributable to interest to charity. I am also aware that the
  9. I'm glad you feel welcome, through watch out as we do have a few wacky types here who can get carried away. I'm guessing the religious requirement is no interest (Muslim).If so gold is definately a good form of investment through always try to keep a balanced portfolio of investments. Historically 10% gold through i'm going slightly higher than that buying in stages but don't go mad. This post has given me the incentive to post a question about this in the investment/main forum. If you willing i'd like to hear your views.
  10. I've rented many many many times both direct and agency. White and asian. My best ever landlord was asian. Really nice guy who let me leave (with no lose of rent or deposit) in a week even through I was supposed to give a months notice. My worst ever landlord was white. I lodged there, he worked away Mon-Fri. He was a complete tosser who thought i'd broken his cupboard in the kitchen. But it was more down to his abysmal diy skills than down to me. He'd always told me I'd get a months notice. Instead he gave me two weeks, that became 1 week that became be out before I return next Friday night
  11. I think it would be useful to say where you are when you talk about salaries. I'd think that 45K in London is not a monster salary as the cost of accomodation, transport and general cost of living erodes a lot of that. but 45K up north (not in a city) would allow you to live like a king. Years ago I moved from 17K down south (Bracknell arghhh) to 21K in Leicester. It felt like I'd doubled my salary overnight.
  12. I'm guessing you never went to University. but if you did you'll see how your salary can accelerate. It's the difference between starting work at 16 or 22. My comparison (against friends who started work at 16). 16-18 Me - no income, part time jobs or beer money, no holidays Friend - £80/week, seemed loaded compared to me 19-22 Me - Student - low income helped with loans, lived frugally but had time so really enjoyed myself Friend - income rose upto about 12K/yr, he had no debts, a car, lots of spare cash compared to me 23-25 Me - first job at 13K/yr down south rising to 17K, transpor
  13. I think you've got it bang on. Unless your a gambler (which is bad) keep it exactly as is. You even have a small allotment of gold as an inflation hedge. It's odd but in a different time I'd be saying you should put 30K in property. But since 30K gets nothing but the worrying property funds don't bother. I'd state two things to consider: 1) Add to your pension as a bulk sum. But only if you started your pension late and then only drip fed in over 6 years to the tune of 5K/yr. 2) A japanese index tracker. I've toyed with this myself but now feel the time to plunge in, is 2 years from now.
  14. I think i can summarise in simple terms: Interest can be worked out in any number of wonderful mathematical ways and the banks abused this. This became a problem as we couldn't accurately compare savings accounts anymore. The solution created by the financial regulators is AER. It basically means that if you put in any money over a year you gain AER % more money. So if two banks have savings accounts you can ignore the interest rate and just compare AER. Obviously there is a relationship but 4.5% interest paid daily will have a higher AER than 5% interest paid at the end of the year. So
  15. Hi Immigrant, How long? I expect a front page newspaper article in a tabloid announcing "house prices fall for the second month" followed by a graph in the paper showing annual price increases have gone negative in 2007. My biggest problem is the amount of statistics and VI spin as they might wait until 2008 and then post articles that prices had collapsed in 2007 and are now increasing again. [Edit hasn't something similar to this happened in the last 6 months?] The Irish Bubble This is much larger than the British bubble and will fall later, faster and further. From an outsiders point
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