2buyornot2buy Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 So anyone prepared to predict the effect of the brexit vote on N.I. housing market? We're pretty unique with the only land border with the EU. What will the impact be in Newry and Derry? What about Dungannon with 10% of the population being migrants. Interesting times ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwrag Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 'Interesting' - assuming you mean't that euphemistically. Brexit could lead to recession in Britain and according to David Cameron last week will necessitate tax rises and spending cuts. Scottish nationalists will call for another referendum and may win this time (they want to go with Europe, not Britain), which will put pressure on Northern Ireland becoming independent (why would the British want to preserve the Union with a region that is costing it significantly especially as going forward they may have less ability to pay for it). Northern Ireland would be disproportionately hit by spending cuts as the majority of people work in the public sector. Northern Ireland will lose EU funding for many community projects and farm subsidies. Emigration from Northern Ireland back to EU countries will reduce demand for housing as the population shrinks. Oh yes and due to the economic uncertainty inflation will rise and interest rates may need to rise more quickly than before. So I agree it will be 'Interesting'! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 24, 2016 Author Share Posted June 24, 2016 'Interesting' - assuming you mean't that euphemistically. Brexit could lead to recession in Britain and according to David Cameron last week will necessitate tax rises and spending cuts. Scottish nationalists will call for another referendum and may win this time (they want to go with Europe, not Britain), which will put pressure on Northern Ireland becoming independent (why would the British want to preserve the Union with a region that is costing it significantly especially as going forward they may have less ability to pay for it). Northern Ireland would be disproportionately hit by spending cuts as the majority of people work in the public sector. Northern Ireland will lose EU funding for many community projects and farm subsidies. Emigration from Northern Ireland back to EU countries will reduce demand for housing as the population shrinks. Oh yes and due to the economic uncertainty inflation will rise and interest rates may need to rise more quickly than before. So I agree it will be 'Interesting'! Yep. Interesting. Can't see an independent N.I. working. Also can't see many NI citizens leaving. Where would they go? Dundalk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwrag Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Mean't EU nationals returning home after freedom of movement ends due to brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Equalizer Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Not sure it'll be anywhere near as 'exciting' as predicted. It's in no-ones interest to have but all of the softest of border controls (and these would be customs only). UK and Irish diplomats will be working overtime to ensure this is the case. Perhaps see how this starts to pan out in a month's time when the dust settles? Oh, I got the impression the housing market has been on hold anyway. Maybe there's pent-up demand in the system that will now surface, or may be people will now hold out a little longer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 24, 2016 Author Share Posted June 24, 2016 Mean't EU nationals returning home after freedom of movement ends due to brexit. Is that a bad thing with 35% economically inactive here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwrag Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 They still need somewhere to live and therefore are created demand in the housing market that will be lost if they leave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 24, 2016 Author Share Posted June 24, 2016 They still need somewhere to live and therefore are created demand in the housing market that will be lost if they leave. Again I can't see why that would be a bad thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwrag Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Not sure it'll be anywhere near as 'exciting' as predicted. It's in no-ones interest to have but all of the softest of border controls (and these would be customs only). UK and Irish diplomats will be working overtime to ensure this is the case. Perhaps see how this starts to pan out in a month's time when the dust settles? Oh, I got the impression the housing market has been on hold anyway. Maybe there's pent-up demand in the system that will now surface, or may be people will now hold out a little longer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwrag Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Agree it might not be so dramatic in the near term as negotiating exit will be a 2 year process. But the uncertainty that has been generated and is being shown in the markets indicates strong negative sentiment in the business world that may influence future prosperity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Agree it might not be so dramatic in the near term as negotiating exit will be a 2 year process. But the uncertainty that has been generated and is being shown in the markets indicates strong negative sentiment in the business world that may influence future prosperity. Agree, it certainly is not a upward force on housing so therefore is a negative force. it will be interesting to compare the difference in the rate of growth in the ROI and here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Equalizer Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Agree, it certainly is not a upward force on housing so therefore is a negative force. it will be interesting to compare the difference in the rate of growth in the ROI and here. I presume you're saying that an upward moving house price trend is an indicator of wider prosperity? Housing is rather odd in this sense. Surely if houses were moderately priced then they would sell more easily and in greater numbers? As a retailer I would rather sell many items at a moderate profit rather than far fewer as a greater margin - obviously depending on the total profit. Also RoI are fairly reliant on the UK for trade, albeit to a far lesser extent than it used to be. Which of the pair will experience greater problems? It might be that tariffs - if any - are set at a very low rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 (edited) Agree, it certainly is not a upward force on housing so therefore is a negative force. it will be interesting to compare the difference in the rate of growth in the ROI and here.Historically or future growth. Honestly I think it's a bit pointless comparing north and south growth rates. It's like comparing apples and oranges.N.I exports about 6.4 billion The Republic around 70 billion Edited June 28, 2016 by 2buyornot2buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Historically or future growth. Honestly I think it's a bit pointless comparing north and south growth rates. It's like comparing apples and oranges. N.I exports about 6.4 billion The Republic around 70 billion A lot of that is related to accountancy tricks by multi nationals. It's quite difficult to get the true figures. Probably not that relevant anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I presume you're saying that an upward moving house price trend is an indicator of wider prosperity? Housing is rather odd in this sense. Surely if houses were moderately priced then they would sell more easily and in greater numbers? As a retailer I would rather sell many items at a moderate profit rather than far fewer as a greater margin - obviously depending on the total profit. Also RoI are fairly reliant on the UK for trade, albeit to a far lesser extent than it used to be. Which of the pair will experience greater problems? It might be that tariffs - if any - are set at a very low rate. No I was just agreeing with the previous post that the Brexit vote and all the uncertainty since, in my view will act as a downward force on house prices than upward. I would also much rather sell houses at a lower price rather than a higher price as long as there is a profit to reward the investment and risk. As we all know housing is different in that falling prices decreases demand rather than increases. we were, until the latest nationwide survey, the cheapest region for housing in the UK. We are historically mid table. I imagine we will return there not by growth or much growth here but by falls over there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Considering we're the region most exposed to brexit problems, surely we're most at risk of a shock. Farming is about to suffer and that's a big component of our economy. Cattle prices have dived already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 until the latest nationwide survey, the cheapest region for housing in the UK. We are historically mid table. I imagine we will return there not by growth or much growth here but by falls over there. So we see value in the Nationwide report now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 So we see value in the Nationwide report now? in England I believe they have a decent market share so I assume their average price for Newcastle is reasonably reflective.There accuracy for here, with their lower market share I expect to be less reflective. However, if our average price has been increasing for the last 2 or 3 years faster than some other regions in the north of England then I expect out position in the table to change. The NIRPPI is now aligned with the ONS reports from the rest of the UK (apples and apples) so we should get a better look at that over the next few reports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Considering we're the region most exposed to brexit problems, surely we're most at risk of a shock. Farming is about to suffer and that's a big component of our economy. Cattle prices have dived already. in regards to our position in the housing cycle we somewhat better off. London prices were running around looking for a pin and a pin it has found. we will not be immune from that and the reaction of the mortgage market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Just seen my first post brexit drop on a house that has been listed for a month or two. Only by 5% but hey, still counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted July 5, 2016 Author Share Posted July 5, 2016 This one keeps popping up, going sale agreed the for sale again. I imagine valuation is a problem. http://www.propertynews.com/Property/BELFAST/DMGDMG4399/270-Stranmillis-Road/386630399/ It was on at 219,950 and couldn't get shifted. So they paint in and add 45k. Delusional. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:EyPkDsSxcL0J:www.danielmcgeown.co.uk/propertyspecific.aspx%3FID%3D212230+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ride_on Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 I think the elephant in the room is that we haven't triggered article 50 yet. We havn't left and I predict that we won't. Why?? for the doom and gloom mentioned above, expanded many times in every area and no politician wants to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 This one keeps popping up, going sale agreed the for sale again. I imagine valuation is a problem. http://www.propertynews.com/Property/BELFAST/DMGDMG4399/270-Stranmillis-Road/386630399/ It was on at 219,950 and couldn't get shifted. So they paint in and add 45k. Delusional. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:EyPkDsSxcL0J:www.danielmcgeown.co.uk/propertyspecific.aspx%3FID%3D212230+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk Exactly - lots of people would be happy to live in that house, but the price is ridiculous. Drop the price to £150K and you'd get several people competing for it - you'd find out it's actual worth then. But it seems people would rather hold on to their houses forever rather than sell them for 'less than they're worth'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 I think the elephant in the room is that we haven't triggered article 50 yet. We havn't left and I predict that we won't. Why?? for the doom and gloom mentioned above, expanded many times in every area and no politician wants to do it. Maybe not, but the public voted for it, and I predict that's what the public will get. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted July 5, 2016 Author Share Posted July 5, 2016 Maybe not, but the public voted for it, and I predict that's what the public will get. Time will tell. Reading the main forum, if the referendum was mapped to first past the post general election results, Brexit would have a 250 seat majority. It'll happen, just not for a while yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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