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House Price Crash Forum


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About jwrag

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  1. I don't want to make any political statements about a United Ireland, but with recent Developments - Tory Landslide in UK Election, strong showing for Sinn Fein in Irish elections and Brexit in process - it looks like this could lead to a United Ireland much sooner than had been expected. What are the thoughts on how this will effect house prices in what is now Northern Ireland. Would the inevitable economic disruption of unification spook the market and cause dramatic falls, or will the higher prices in the south of Ireland lead to a realignment and uplift in prices up here. My sense is that the uncertainty will have a negative effect in the short to medium term, in the long term prices will reflect the economic performance of the reunited country if this happens. Discuss?
  2. Have seen a manor that I am interested in. Spoke to mortgage people today and they have reported back that business is unusually busy for this time of year with 4 times the number of callers than normally occurs at the end of December. Apparently up until last Friday mortgage applications were unusually slow, but took a jump after the Tory landslide. Hopefully this doesn't lead to a jump in prices.
  3. If more of peoples disposable income is being consumed by paying of credit for new cars, holidays and 'lifestyle' then the shit is really gonna hit the fan when the interest rates go up and the resulting crash will be correspondingly deeper and more severe.
  4. This implies buyers do no research and do not take care to know that they are getting a fair deal when they are making the biggest financial commitment of their lives Instead they simply buy on a whim, paying whatever is asked, based on EAs wet dreams and their possibly fraudulent counter bids. I think this unlikely. If an EA is encouraging a buyer to pay "whatever they want to pay for it" and this is beyond the going rate and the ceiling price for the area then they deserve their already dodgy reputation. If this transaction is completed the new owner will be the loser when they come to resell and can't find another numb skull like them.
  5. Surely everyone here knows that every area has a ceiling price over which no matter how good or how big the house, the house cannot will sell for more that the ceiling. There are not many areas in Belfast outside BT9 where I would say a price of £400K plus can be supported. I would consider Ravenhill to be a good area, something similar but not quite as good as Stranmillis, so all things considered I think £400k is the upper limit for this area and that would be for the very best house in perfect/refurbished condition. Estate Agents make money by attempting to exaggerate prices and earn commission on a higher sale price, they are particularly adept at selling project houses at close to the value of a refurbished one, unfortunately some buyers will fall for this. I have a particular formula for estimate the house of project/refurb type purchases Price of house in need of refurb = (Price of Perfect/Refurbished house in same area) - (Cost of Refurb * 1.5) You need the 1.5 factor in the equation to compensate for the hassle of having to organise the refurb. Considering 47 Ravenhill Park, I would say some money needs to be spent, around 60K before extending is considered. Therefore this house is worth about 310K. Price of house in need of refurb = 400 - (60*1.5)
  6. Looking for a new or refurbished (no projects) 4 bedroom detached house somewhere around South Belfast/Edenderry/Dunmurry/Lambeg/Drumbeg/Lisburn. Struggling to find anything that represents any sort of value. One development looks ok, but has yet to be completed and can't be visited as it's still under construction. Being sold by Templeton Robinson which puts me off, as they know how to (over) charge. https://www.templetonrobinson.com/development/richmond-wood/468/ A couple of questions though, 1. The site is very hilly with back gardens on some serious slopes, how bad is this? 2. I remember hearing that there was some environmental problem related to demolishing whatever was on this site before. Does anyone know what the story was here, asbestos? 3. Is this really the best alternative available? The area seems good, near trains etc. But I'm only looking here by default as I am appalled I can't find anything else for around 400K which is decent sized, in a reasonable area and within walking distance to transport links. May have to return to praying for a Brexit induced zombie apocalypse!
  7. I've had similar experiences. I wouldn't trust estate agents as far as I could through them. I remember viewing a house that I thought was overpriced at £290k, I felt 250-260 was fair. I asked the EA if the seller would consider less than the asking price and was told they already had a bid of £285k from a professional returning from London to resettle in Belfast. The odd thing was the house had just come on the market, so apparently they had a bid of near the asking price by a buyer who had only looked at the house on the website. Anyway I walked away and looked at other houses and noticed some better ones. I have always kept an eye on the £290K house and was not surprised to see the asking price fall to 260k with no sign of the obvious phantom 285k bid panning out. Could have been a legit bid that pulled out, but I think much more likely that this 285k was invented to set a floor on the bidding.
  8. I agree with what you're saying, but maybe only because it fits in with my earlier predictions. I am planning to sell a 3 bedroom semi in Dunmurry in the next few months and hoping to get a 4 or 5 bedroom detached in the same area. I don't know if I quite have the balls to sell up and wait for the market to drop, so I'd be interested to know where you have seen " four bed detached in the suburbs [that] are still good value".
  9. Wages in Northern Ireland are still staggeringly low compared to most of the rest of the uk also!
  10. I hope you're correct, I went to look at a house before Christmas which I liked but thought was over priced. I predicted it wouldn't sell and would languish on the market forever, but it was shocked to see that it had gone sale agreed. Crumbs!
  11. According to Nationwide Survey NI house prices are up 6%. How could this be, with all indications that the financial future of this region is looking shaky. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-house-price-growth-highest-in-the-uk-37681828.html
  12. Is the market getting spooked by all the bad press coming from the newspapers? I've noticed that through the HOME.CO.UK website that house over 300k are taking almost 1 year to sell.
  13. What about these other 300K + houses, is it agreed that they are way over priced? https://www.propertypal.com/39-the-green-upper-dunmurry-lane-belfast/534677 https://www.propertypal.com/3-forest-park-upper-dunmurry-lane-belfast/534826
  14. Yes was used as the office for the architect who built the Grand Designs house behind this one. Haven'y noticed any occupation of this for 3 or 4 years. Super evasive estate agent (wouldn't admit to being an EA, yet was handing out property brochures and showing prospective buyers around) told me the house was likely to have been sold at auction due to bankruptcy.
  15. Put off by the noise, didn't notice the damp/rot or cracks, could have been painted over. Unless there is something that is flagging up a problem for the surveyor this seems like a decent deal? When you look at what other sellers are looking more than £300k for, it's almost reasonable. My only hope is that the Brexit induced zombie apocalypse will bring some much needed sanity to the housing market! At least 80k over priced! https://www.propertypal.com/39-the-green-upper-dunmurry-lane-belfast/534677 At least 70k over priced! https://www.propertypal.com/3-forest-park-upper-dunmurry-lane-belfast/534826
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