The "nicest" People Are Taking Peak Oil Seriously

[malco]

Peak Oil has direct relevance to house prices as the cost of energy will have such an influence on the economy. I had not appreciated - but ought to have done - that it has a wider relevance that we should all be wary about. This is a quotation from the British National Party:

"When the BNP does win political power Peak Oil will not be something that we can postpone. It will be happening at the very time that we come to power. In fact it may well be an important catalyst that helps us to win political power because we are the ones talking about it now, the voters might not like us pointing out that the wolf is approaching the chicken coop but they will identify us as the ones who kept speaking about it back in 2005, bringing it to their awareness and understanding.

Voters take to new ideas, even radically new ideas when the system that they have trusted, worked with, admired and felt comfortable with falls apart. We are going to make a lot of noise about Peak Oil because it is yet another example of how the current political process has failed the people of this country, how the short-sightedness of most of our corrupt, incompetent and downright traitorous politicians is very shortly going to create one awful mess and we rightly identify those individuals, those systems, those institutions that have been responsible for that collapse."

It would appear they see Peak Oil as a prime opportunity to seize power. Quite cynical. Their analysis is, however, all too accurate. If the energy crisis becomes deeply severe, that will greatly increase the risk of extreme politics getting into power. Hard to anticipate what effect that will have on house prices, admittedly, but we won't be worrying about such trivia if Labour and Conservative have been replaced by the commies and the fascists.

Edited November 20, 2005 by malco

[clv101]

Indeed, when peak oil and the associated economic collapse comes the population are going to very unimpressed with the mainstream parties - it is on this platform that the BNP can rise from. Think how the Nazi party rose from the economic ruin of 1920's Germany.

In 1928 the Nazi Party won only 2.8% of the popular vote, in 1930 it won 18.3% and in July 1932 it gained a massive 37.3%.

The BNP in the UK are polling around 2-3% of the popular vote where they contest today.

If the collapse is particularly bad the public could lose faith in the current government and look around for an alternative. The BNP could in an instant pop up from nowhere with a well developed peak oil agenda. Desperate people in desperate times could vote in desperate ways.

[right_freds_dead]

remember in 1932 the nazis were a laughable party with about 2-5% of the working class vote.

then circumstances changed and they got more extreme support. too much support, and they took power.

yikes.

trouble is (as well as daft policies) the bmp will be staffed by real hoods by then. say 2014. if the islamic thing continues all the way till that point AND say peak oil or finacial meltdown happens we could be repeating bad history all over again.

then theres things like the weather and bird flu.

wha ?? (reaches for pimms winter)

**thats better (screws cap back on bottle)

if we act now and defend the iraqis and settle the middle east down fairly and squarely, plus manage to become world leaders in eco technology and renewables we might just save ourselves a lot of trouble.

Edited November 20, 2005 by right_freds_dead

[Michael]

We may pacify/neutralise Iraq but this Islam v the West problem will always exist as long as the New York Jewish lobby dictates American foreign policy............................

[right_freds_dead]

We may pacify/neutralise Iraq but this Islam v the West problem will always exist as long as the New York Jewish lobby dictates American foreign policy.

islam is the fastest growing religion in the western world. if that continues over time, america would become islamic by natural choice - not conflict.

islam doesnt mean you have to have a straggly beard and beat your wife in a burkah.

thats like saying all catholics say 9 hail marys everytime they think about big busters.

its a level of extremism that isnt the main stream. i guess saudi is much like any other city for the most part.

im not for chopping the heads of infidels and all that jazz. those people are nutters.

perhaps it would meet in the middle. i would say some faith in something other than the dollar would be a good thing for the usa and the rest of the world. though its a shame religion has to meet politics this way.

[ThePiltdownMan]

If the BNP ever becomes a credible threat to the ruling Lib-Lab-Con party, then they will be outlawed or smeared as a terrorist organisation.

[Guest Alright Jack]

Anyone who thinks for a second that this government are not aware and actively defining policy for the energy crisis are either deluded or simply unable to read between the lines (which is odd given the ability to invent apparent 'VI' from other camps)

Government are tackling this in an elliptical fashion. The Peak Oil debate has the potential to spiral into a panic that causes far more problems than it merits. Why do you think every day you see so many 'energy guru' adverts (that annoying Powergen bloke)? Why has climate change become such an apparent driving concern - well, it aint. No one gives a sh!t about CO2 emissions (I certainly never have), it's irrelevant! We have not the fossil fuel endowment remaining to cause much more damage. The real reason is that in 'saving the planet' we are actually in a round-a-bout way dealing with fossil fuel shortages. This debate will be used to leverage nuclear power industry restoration and expansion over the next ten years.

Why do think the Oil wars are reaching their climax? Why do we worry about benign governments like exIraq (lots of oil) and not give a flying fukaroo about REALLY dangerous regimes like N.Korea.

The list goes on. There is RAPID policy development going on around you. It is obvious.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Is this all a load of tosh? Surely new technology will mean that peak oil ends up being postponed yet again?

I remember all this oil is running out rubbish back in the 80s and guess what! It didn't happen!

And surely WHEN oil does start running out, we'll be inventive enough to get energy from alternative sources such as tidal power or oil derived from coal, for example.

I've worked in the energy industry, on an off, for many years - worked in the oil industry first, then did a stint in a government agency (urghhhh - haven't returned to the public sector since then - thank god) so have been watching this debate for some time.

I wonder if this peak oil stuff is just eco-hippy / nuclear lobby hype.

Back to coal - The UK has an estimated 1.65 billion short tons (Bst) of recoverable coal reserves. The country is the fifth-largest coal producer in the EU, with output of 31.1 million short tons (Mmst) in 2003. No wonder the government is spending millions keeping the UK's mining infrastructure up to standard in many areas.

Edited November 20, 2005 by gruffydd

[SarahBell]

I mentioned this ages ago that BNP is the only party in the UK to even mention it on their site.

Scary eh.

[Limpet]

We may pacify/neutralise Iraq but this Islam v the West problem will always exist as long as the New York Jewish lobby dictates American foreign policy............................

When will people realise that it should not be a choice between religions, there is no "good" religion.

It is purely a brainwashing device to give an elite few power over large sectors of the general population.

How many fanatical nutters sreaming Jehad,

How many kiddie fiddling Catholic priests

How many Bishops living it large in their palaces, while the old die of cold

Remember the Church of England is one of the biggest land owners in the country, but still pleads poverty ( and still the old die of cold )

Then you`ve got pillocks in the good old US of A wanting creationism taught alongside Evolution in schools.

Good Grief

:angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:

[CrashedOutAndBurned]

I mentioned this ages ago that BNP is the only party in the UK to even mention it on their site.

Scary eh.

http://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2177

http://lewes.greenparty.org.uk/press-relea...ument-16-62.php

http://southwest.greenparty.org.uk/greensw...0506peakoil.htm

http://lambeth.greenparty.org.uk/diary.htm

http://archive.greenparty.org.uk/reports/2...on/avfuture.pdf

etc., etc.

Page after page on peak oil with the Green Party, local talks to attend, policy documents.

[Guest Alright Jack]

Is this all a load of tosh? Surely new technology will mean that peak oil ends up being postponed yet again?

I remember all this oil is running out rubbish back in the 80s and guess what! It didn't happen!

And surely WHEN oil does start running out, we'll be inventive enough to get energy from alternative sources such as tidal power or oil derived from coal, for example.

I've worked in the energy industry, on an off, for many years - worked in the oil industry first, then did a stint in a government agency (urghhhh - haven't returned to the public sector since then - thank god) so have been watching this debate for some time.

I wonder if this peak oil stuff is just eco-hippy / nuclear lobby hype.

Back to coal - The UK has an estimated 1.65 billion short tons (Bst) of recoverable coal reserves. The country is the fifth-largest coal producer in the EU, with output of 31.1 million short tons (Mmst) in 2003. No wonder the government is spending millions keeping the UK's mining infrastructure up to standard in many areas.

[ Abusive text removed by moderator ]

If you really had worked in any (non-burger flipping) capacity relating to energy, oil or government then you would have some basic knowledge of the founding father(s) of the debate in addition to an ounce of insight yourself.

Colin.J Cambell.

Matt Simmons.

Someone who actually really has your experience would know of and have some respect for these person(s) irrespective of whether you buy into the philosophy or nay.

Go find. DYOR. Come back with an informed opinion.

[BuyingBear]

Indeed, when peak oil and the associated economic collapse comes the population are going to very unimpressed with the mainstream parties - it is on this platform that the BNP can rise from. Think how the Nazi party rose from the economic ruin of 1920's Germany.

Hrm, I don't like this at all, we need to address our energy concerns and hope that some nutcase opportunists don't co-opt this to their own nerfarious ends. We need to address the energy gap in a real way, however the path that lot are going will mean just addressing the issue could risk being labelled a nazi, which will mean good people putting their head in the sand... which will cause greater problems later, especially if we end up with a Heath style 3-day week.

There are opportunists ready to take advantage of any given problem.

[clv101]

[ Abusive text removed by moderator ]

Indeed, no one who knows anything about energy would suggest peak oil is a load of tosh... maybe debate whether peak oil will occur in 2007 or 2014 or whether the post peak decline will be 2% or 4% but to be as dismissive as gruffydd is just shows lack of knowledge on the entire field.

Here's a primer with many further links:

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

[29929BlackTuesday]

Indeed, when peak oil and the associated economic collapse comes the population are going to very unimpressed with the mainstream parties - it is on this platform that the BNP can rise from. Think how the Nazi party rose from the economic ruin of 1920's Germany.

In 1928 the Nazi Party won only 2.8% of the popular vote, in 1930 it won 18.3% and in July 1932 it gained a massive 37.3%.

The BNP in the UK are polling around 2-3% of the popular vote where they contest today.

If the collapse is particularly bad the public could lose faith in the current government and look around for an alternative. The BNP could in an instant pop up from nowhere with a well developed peak oil agenda. Desperate people in desperate times could vote in desperate ways.

Surely the Nazi party are already in?

[Guest magnoliawalls]

Indeed, no one who knows anything about energy would suggest peak oil is a load of tosh... maybe debate whether peak oil will occur in 2007 or 2014 or whether the post peak decline will be 2% or 4% but to be as dismissive as gruffydd is just shows lack of knowledge on the entire field.

Here's a primer with many further links:

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

Hi clv101 - thanks for the link, can you recommend any authoritative sources on when the peak will occur and the rate of post peak decline?

Thanks,

MW

[clv101]

Hi clv101 - thanks for the link, can you recommend any authoritative sources on when the peak will occur and the rate of post peak decline?

Thanks,

MW

As for when it will occur see this article I wrote a few months ago: Peak Oil: Two Approaches, One Answer

Also this excellent new report on the subject World Oil Production & Peaking Outlook.

And here are the conference proceeding from the Edinburgh event earlier this year: http://www.odac-info.org/PeakOilUKConferenceProceedings.htm

Check out Chris Skrebowski's presentation on that site - he makes a very compelling argument.

Regarding the rate of decline post peak - far more complicated, here's a good analysis of rate of production declines from already producing fields though: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/11/16/182053/32

[Guest magnoliawalls]

As for when it will occur see this article I wrote a few months ago: Peak Oil: Two Approaches, One Answer

Also this excellent new report on the subject World Oil Production & Peaking Outlook.

And here are the conference proceeding from the Edinburgh event earlier this year: http://www.odac-info.org/PeakOilUKConferenceProceedings.htm

Check out Chris Skrebowski's presentation on that site - he makes a very compelling argument.

Regarding the rate of decline post peak - far more complicated, here's a good analysis of rate of production declines from already producing fields though: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/11/16/182053/32

Thanks - this will keep me quiet for a while

[shermanator]

I remember at primary school in the late 80s, all the teachers were saying that oil would run out by 2020. What a load of old tosh, and they were I presume, all Socialists spouting this nonsense.

The world will, if anything, be suffering from over supply of the black stuff as everyone rushes to get new wells opened, hoping to cash in on $100 oil.

Katrina was the peak, and it's been down from there. Also, every man and his dog reckons the oil price will rocket and we're running out. So, looking at the madness of crowds, it's going to go in the exact opposite direction.

[SarahBell]

http://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2177

Page after page on peak oil with the Green Party, local talks to attend, policy documents.

Not directly linked from the main pages. You have to search for it. If I recall the BNP had it linked in from main pages. You had to search for the green party stuff - which defeats the object - it is general oublic awareness wthat needs to bring pressure on the main parties and if noone knows about it how can they search it.

[Bubble Pop Electric]

If the BNP ever becomes a credible threat to the ruling Lib-Lab-Con party, then they will be outlawed or smeared as a terrorist organisation.

The BNP are already classed as a terrorist organisation. I have a relative in the armed forces who had to attend a training session on UK threats, & they were named amongst them.

The really irritating thing is that the spin clearly sticks - even with people on here. Its an old political trick that if you keep repeating the same old story & stick to the same old line, that it sinks into the subconscious public opinion, even when there is no voracity to the claims being made.

The BNP are not Nazis. Its just that the press & politicians say that they are. They are a fringe party that attracts more than it's fair share of idiots. They speak about unpolitically correct topics, like imigration being a problem, Bueraucratic nonsense left wing jobs for the boys, etc - basically things that everyone agrees with, but daren't actually talk about - and it's all too easy to label them as Nazis for it. However, I think that Nazism is more than just a convenient label you can apply to political opponents, it is an ideology that our mainstream parties seem to live by.

Compare the idea of the BNP as Nazis for the things that they talk about, against previous & current UK governments for the things that they actually do - these are just a few examples - I'm sure you can think of many more:

Maggie T changing the law to make the miners strike illegal (it wasn't before the law change), ie, changing the law to achieve political objectives - Nazism

Allowing the Police to stop the free movement of people during the miners strike, ie, using the Police as political enforcers rather than law enforcers - Nazism

Invading a foreign country to rape it of its natural resources, killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians in the process, and justifying it by spinning them into "terrorists" beforehand - Nazism.

Think also of the overt use of political propoganda (now called spin), the "economic miracle" that Labour has delivered to us, the push to lock up "terrorists" for lengthy spells without trial - this looks more like history repeating to me.

The main political parties exhibit & actually conduct themselves much more like Nazis than any fringe organisation ever has done. I don't know how they have the Gall, particularly with Iraq with the huge & totally unjustified loss of Iraqi civilian life.

Finally, Griffin is in court for "making racist comments" - the crime? - stating that we would have a bombing in the UK, probably a suicide bombing, probably on the tube, probably from Asians born in the UK, & that they would probably come from somewhere like Leeds. He made this statement & was prosecuted before the London bombings - Just how "racist" do those comments look now, & how can the government expect anything but a rise in popularity for them when they are standing up and talking about things that are unpolitically correct, and getting it right, & at the same time the major parties, particulary Labour, are spinning the facts under the carpet to appear PC, and at the same time costing innocent people their lives?

Just think what will happen if the BNP start warning about a HPC - they'll be in no10 by the end of next year!

[clv101]

Not directly linked from the main pages. You have to search for it. If I recall the BNP had it linked in from main pages. You had to search for the green party stuff - which defeats the object - it is general oublic awareness wthat needs to bring pressure on the main parties and if noone knows about it how can they search it.

The Green Party aren't engaging the peak oil subject - I don't believe Caroline Lucas has ever officially mentioned it. It's understandable why since it's a complex task to promote understanding and action on climate change and peak oil at the same time when an uninitiated first glace could see the subjects as mutually exclusive.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Very very very rude Alright Jack. No I'm not an expert, just offering an opinion. By the way, did I say I worked in anything other than a burger flipping capacity? I worked as an engineer for Texaco and as a consultant on energy efficiency to the government (through EST). I also worked in an environmental organisation for six years focussing on renewables (CAT). Is there really any need to be so abusive? Some of us have been brought up to behave decently to all other human beings. How unfortunate that you so obviously haven't.

Edited November 20, 2005 by gruffydd

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/internatio...fm?id=683192004

"But perhaps the most often repeated catastrophe predicted is the exhaustion of the world’s oil reserves. As early as 1919 the head of the US geological survey forecast that the end would come in nine years. Since then things have improved and the latest estimate is 2043." read the rest on the above link.

Take a look at http://www.911-strike.com/peakoil.htm - interesting info on abiotic oil.

Or http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm

Oh Mattie Simmons is it Alright Jack? OH JOLLY GOOD -

Matt Simmons is a member of the CFR (information from the dust jacket of the Wiley edition of twilight in the desert) Council on Foreign Relations - a secret society or shadow government according to your interpretation, it's members include presidents, banks, corporations - http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/shadow/cfrintro.htm

'Have we got time for a bit of a conspiracy theory?

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/

Edited November 20, 2005 by gruffydd

[Guest Alright Jack]

Very very very rude Alright Jack. No I'm not an expert, just offering an opinion. By the way, did I say I worked in anything other than a burger flipping capacity? I worked as an engineer for Texaco and as a consultant on energy efficiency to the government. I also worked in an environmental organisation for six years focussing on renewable. Is there really any need to be so abusive? Some of us have been brought up to behave decently to all other human beings. How unfortunate that you so obviously haven't.

Classic !

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/internatio...fm?id=683192004

"But perhaps the most often repeated catastrophe predicted is the exhaustion of the world’s oil reserves. As early as 1919 the head of the US geological survey forecast that the end would come in nine years. Since then things have improved and the latest estimate is 2043." read the rest on the above link.

Take a look at http://www.911-strike.com/peakoil.htm - interesting info on abiotic oil.

Or http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm

Oh Mattie Simmons is it Alright Jack? OH JOLLY GOOD -

Matt Simmons is a member of the CFR (information from the dust jacket of the Wiley edition of twilight in the desert) Council on Foreign Relations - a secret society or shadow government according to your interpretation, it's members include presidents, banks, corporations - http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/shadow/cfrintro.htm

'Have we got time for a bit of a conspiracy theory?

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/

I know very well who Matt Simmons is and the fact that he is so outspoken on Ghawar is the very reason to sit up and think.