koala_bear Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 (edited) http://www.bankofeng...ul/default.aspx http://www.bankofeng...eyandcredit.pdf Mortgage stats House Purchase July £9.1bn, 60624 transactions, average loan =150.1k [April £8.3bn, 54635 transactions, average loan =151.9k] Remortgage July £5.1bn, 34262 transactions, average loan = 148.8k [April £4.5bn, 31413 transactions, average loan = 143.2k] Other July £0.5bn, 13045 transactions, average loan = 38.3k [no notice change from previous months] Re-mortgaging is the more interesting area at the moment - continuation of previously noted trend in re-mortgage amount going rapidly upwards. This suggests lots of IO and/or large mortgage customers re-mortgaging. Edit to correct typo Edited August 30, 2013 by koala_bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/mc/2013/jul/default.aspx http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/documents/mc/2013/jul/moneyandcredit.pdf Mortgage stats House Purchase July £9.1bn, 60624 transactions, average loan =150.1k [April £8.3bn, 54635 transactions, average loan =151.9k] Remortgage July £5.1bn, 34262 transactions, average loan = 148.8k [April £8.3bn, 31413 transactions, average loan = 143.2k] Other July £0.5bn, 13045 transactions, average loan = 38.3k [no notice change from previous months] Re-mortgaging is the more interesting area at the moment - continuation of previously noted tend in re-mortgage amount going rapidly upwards. This suggests lots of IO and/or large mortgage customers re-mortgaging. Yes, good point about IO, would be good to see if the sting has been taken out of the spike in the redemption profile circa 2027. The net lending figures are really weak too(tab 'H'), I was bracing myself for a Nationwide-related boost when compared to the BBA, but they show a similar theme- rises in both repayments and lending, keeping the net figure approximately zero. Looking at overall lending, you could be forgiven for thinking that banks were targetting zero change in lending overall: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Seasonally adjusted approvals for house purchase have risen above 60K for the first time since March 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/documents/mc/2013/jul/moneyandcredit.pdf Deposits and loans of financial and non-financial businesses, by industry Deposits from financial and non-financial businesses decreased by £1.7 billion in July, compared to the average monthly increase of £2.2 billion over the previous six months. The twelve-month growth rate was 1.1%. The decrease was mainly in deposits from businesses in the financial services industry (-£6.4 billion), partially offset by an increase in deposits from government and other services (£5.2 billion). Loans to financial and non-financial businesses decreased by £19.5 billion in July, compared to the average monthly decrease of £0.9 billion over the previous six months. The twelve-month growth rate was -1.5%. The decrease was mainly in loans to businesses in the financial services industry (-£19.8 billion). So all the decreases here are down to the financial services industry? Is their another crisis looming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Remortgage July £5.1bn, 34262 transactions, average loan = 148.8k [April £8.3bn, 31413 transactions, average loan = 143.2k] Am I misreading something here, the number of loan transactions have gone up, the average loan value has gone up but the figure is only £5.1bn but the April figure was £8.3bn and had less transactions and lower average loan value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Is it a typo and the figure for Apr should be £4.5bn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 (edited) Yes, good point about IO, would be good to see if the sting has been taken out of the spike in the redemption profile circa 2027. The net lending figures are really weak too(tab 'H'), I was bracing myself for a Nationwide-related boost when compared to the BBA, but they show a similar theme- rises in both repayments and lending, keeping the net figure approximately zero. Looking at overall lending, you could be forgiven for thinking that banks were targetting zero change in lending overall: My guess would be not much change to 2027 peak yet - those re-mortgaging would mostly be earlier unless they had gone 30 year terms originally. (especially those outside London) Assuming 25 year term, monthly repayments would THEORETICALLY (i.e. 100% repayment mortgages) need to be 4.222-4.223bn a month so far in 2013 - less than 1/3 of the total repayments (most of which we know come from redemption on sale or re-mortgage as per previous threads) so is this suggest a big shift to repayment (upon re-mortgaging) and / or a big increase in overall sales... £13.7bn-£12.5bn =£1.2bn extra a month - if this were all sales it would suggest mortgage values of 200k on new lending instead of the 150k July average. So based on that if we assume 75% is from sales [matches purchase data] and 25% from a shift to repayment from IO on re-mortgage (i.e. £300m a month in extra regular monthly repayments) So in 3 months the amount of regular monthly repayments have increased by 7% (300m/4.222bn) of the total needed assuming 100% repayment mortgages (given that the number of outstanding IO mortgages is approximately 50% - this rate of swapping is very high and suggests higher end or London residents are the ones swapping given the number of transactions...) Net lending per transaction is effectively negative as transactions are increasing faster than lending volumes. In April the turnover rate (total outstanding / monthly repayments) lending was 8.44 years in July this had fallen to 7.71 years (reduction by 9 months in just 3 months) which suggests so parts of the market (re-mortgaging / London etc?) are very active. Looking at the marginal increase in re-mortgaging April-July +£600m with extra to 2849 extra customers this implies average incremental re-mortgage of 210k! (plenty of assumptions...) Edited August 30, 2013 by koala_bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 (edited) Is it a typo and the figure for Apr should be £4.5bn? It is and I've corrected it in the OP. The dangers of using copy+paste in a hurry. Edited August 30, 2013 by koala_bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 (edited) Seasonally adjusted approvals for house purchase have risen above 60K for the first time since March 2008. Indeed. Reuters cite 90k transactions/month as need for a functioning UK market and we have just got back to 60k. The difference between 60k and 90k transactions at £150k / loan (and repayment not IO basis) is an extra £4.5bn lending a month a very big ask in my opinion at the moment as only NW and Barc have been pumping volumes. As noted above an extra £300m a month is being sucked out of the economy (retail sales?) by swapping from IO to repayment -this will not encourage growth in the short term. So if we assume any new lending is repayment this is an increase of £15m every month in capital repayments (i.e. after 12 months an extra £180m a month in repayments (which is a lot of cash to suck out of the active economy so I can't see it happening as we don't have the wage increases...) Edited August 30, 2013 by koala_bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 It is and I've corrected it in the OP. The dangers of using copy+paste in a hurry. That makes much more sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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