Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
koala_bear

Boe July 2013 Stats

Recommended Posts

http://www.bankofeng...ul/default.aspx

http://www.bankofeng...eyandcredit.pdf

Mortgage stats

House Purchase

July £9.1bn, 60624 transactions, average loan =150.1k

[April £8.3bn, 54635 transactions, average loan =151.9k]

Remortgage

July £5.1bn, 34262 transactions, average loan = 148.8k

[April £4.5bn, 31413 transactions, average loan = 143.2k]

Other

July £0.5bn, 13045 transactions, average loan = 38.3k

[no notice change from previous months]

Re-mortgaging is the more interesting area at the moment - continuation of previously noted trend in re-mortgage amount going rapidly upwards. This suggests lots of IO and/or large mortgage customers re-mortgaging.

Edit to correct typo

Edited by koala_bear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/mc/2013/jul/default.aspx

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/documents/mc/2013/jul/moneyandcredit.pdf

Mortgage stats

House Purchase

July £9.1bn, 60624 transactions, average loan =150.1k

[April £8.3bn, 54635 transactions, average loan =151.9k]

Remortgage

July £5.1bn, 34262 transactions, average loan = 148.8k

[April £8.3bn, 31413 transactions, average loan = 143.2k]

Other

July £0.5bn, 13045 transactions, average loan = 38.3k

[no notice change from previous months]

Re-mortgaging is the more interesting area at the moment - continuation of previously noted tend in re-mortgage amount going rapidly upwards. This suggests lots of IO and/or large mortgage customers re-mortgaging.

Yes, good point about IO, would be good to see if the sting has been taken out of the spike in the redemption profile circa 2027. The net lending figures are really weak too(tab 'H'), I was bracing myself for a Nationwide-related boost when compared to the BBA, but they show a similar theme- rises in both repayments and lending, keeping the net figure approximately zero.

3mdn.jpg

Looking at overall lending, you could be forgiven for thinking that banks were targetting zero change in lending overall:

vvi0.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/documents/mc/2013/jul/moneyandcredit.pdf

Deposits and loans of financial and non-financial businesses, by industry

Deposits from financial and non-financial businesses decreased by £1.7 billion in July, compared to the average monthly increase of £2.2 billion over the previous six months. The twelve-month growth rate was 1.1%. The decrease was mainly in deposits from businesses in the financial services industry (-£6.4 billion), partially offset by an increase in deposits from government and other services (£5.2 billion).

Loans to financial and non-financial businesses decreased by £19.5 billion in July, compared to the average monthly decrease of £0.9 billion over the previous six months. The twelve-month growth rate was -1.5%. The decrease was mainly in loans to businesses in the financial services industry (-£19.8 billion).

So all the decreases here are down to the financial services industry? Is their another crisis looming?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remortgage

July £5.1bn, 34262 transactions, average loan = 148.8k

[April £8.3bn, 31413 transactions, average loan = 143.2k]

Am I misreading something here, the number of loan transactions have gone up, the average loan value has gone up but the figure is only £5.1bn but the April figure was £8.3bn and had less transactions and lower average loan value?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, good point about IO, would be good to see if the sting has been taken out of the spike in the redemption profile circa 2027. The net lending figures are really weak too(tab 'H'), I was bracing myself for a Nationwide-related boost when compared to the BBA, but they show a similar theme- rises in both repayments and lending, keeping the net figure approximately zero.

3mdn.jpg

Looking at overall lending, you could be forgiven for thinking that banks were targetting zero change in lending overall:

vvi0.jpg

My guess would be not much change to 2027 peak yet - those re-mortgaging would mostly be earlier unless they had gone 30 year terms originally. (especially those outside London)

Assuming 25 year term, monthly repayments would THEORETICALLY (i.e. 100% repayment mortgages) need to be 4.222-4.223bn a month so far in 2013 - less than 1/3 of the total repayments (most of which we know come from redemption on sale or re-mortgage as per previous threads) so is this suggest a big shift to repayment (upon re-mortgaging) and / or a big increase in overall sales...

£13.7bn-£12.5bn =£1.2bn extra a month - if this were all sales it would suggest mortgage values of 200k on new lending instead of the 150k July average. So based on that if we assume 75% is from sales [matches purchase data] and 25% from a shift to repayment from IO on re-mortgage (i.e. £300m a month in extra regular monthly repayments)

So in 3 months the amount of regular monthly repayments have increased by 7% (300m/4.222bn) of the total needed assuming 100% repayment mortgages (given that the number of outstanding IO mortgages is approximately 50% - this rate of swapping is very high and suggests higher end or London residents are the ones swapping given the number of transactions...)

Net lending per transaction is effectively negative as transactions are increasing faster than lending volumes.

In April the turnover rate (total outstanding / monthly repayments) lending was 8.44 years in July this had fallen to 7.71 years (reduction by 9 months in just 3 months) which suggests so parts of the market (re-mortgaging / London etc?) are very active.

Looking at the marginal increase in re-mortgaging April-July +£600m with extra to 2849 extra customers this implies average incremental re-mortgage of 210k! (plenty of assumptions...)

Edited by koala_bear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it a typo and the figure for Apr should be £4.5bn?

It is and I've corrected it in the OP. The dangers of using copy+paste in a hurry.

Edited by koala_bear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seasonally adjusted approvals for house purchase have risen above 60K for the first time since March 2008.

MortgageApprovals0713.gif

Indeed. Reuters cite 90k transactions/month as need for a functioning UK market and we have just got back to 60k.

The difference between 60k and 90k transactions at £150k / loan (and repayment not IO basis) is an extra £4.5bn lending a month a very big ask in my opinion at the moment as only NW and Barc have been pumping volumes.

As noted above an extra £300m a month is being sucked out of the economy (retail sales?) by swapping from IO to repayment -this will not encourage growth in the short term.

So if we assume any new lending is repayment this is an increase of £15m every month in capital repayments (i.e. after 12 months an extra £180m a month in repayments (which is a lot of cash to suck out of the active economy so I can't see it happening as we don't have the wage increases...)

Edited by koala_bear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   203 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.