@contradevian Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-10/why-jpy-surging There is a known tendency for JPY to appreciate in August. As Citi's FX Technicals group notes, this tendency is particularly strong when the differential between Japanese and US policy rates is less than 2%, and given the current rate gap, JPY is highly likely to rise again this August. USD selling for JPY by Japanese exporters puts larger downward pressure on USD in August than usual, partly since trading is thin because market players are on vacation. However, in recent years the income account surplus has had a larger impact and along with the major Treasury auctions (interest payments and redemptions) there is an appreciable fundamental flow. In addition, the much-watched technicals (considerably more widely followed in Asian FX markets than the US) are not supportive (of either JPY weakness of Nikkei strength) and given the massively crowded trade, for a foreigner who has purchased the Nikkei on a hedged basis (Long Nikkei and Long USD JPY) this trade could become very painful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-10/why-jpy-surging Sunday times money section a few months ago when the Nikkei was near 16,000 was advised people to do just this! (Alongside various BUY PROPERTY NOW! articles) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Big week of Japan data ahead. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100954590 * GDP likely strong enough to justify sales-tax hikes* Some advisers pressing Abe to delay, water down tax hike * Q2 annualised GDP seen +3.6 pct vs Q1 +4.1 pct * Machinery orders data to signal slow capex growth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 But I don't like forex. Why not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 So if Yen breaks above 96.5 v $ Nikkei will tumble as will US shares. I would say more likely to happen than not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Can it be this week please? Tuesday would do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Can it be this week please? Tuesday would do. Never a question of when will it but will it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 This forum seems to have died? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daft Boy Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 This forum seems to have died? R.I.P Reminds me I have 100,000 yen left to change back to stirling after last weeks trip to tokyo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 R.I.P Reminds me I have 100,000 yen left to change back to stirling after last weeks trip to tokyo Is that enough to buy a house or enough to buy a stick of gum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So if Yen breaks above 96.5 v $ Nikkei will tumble as will US shares. I would say more likely to happen than not. ¥ had a vg month and Nikkei fell 14%. Dum de dum de dum de dum... 1st leg or done? Suspect 1st leg but on verra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Still looking strong. Needs to below 100.5 and close Weekly ($:¥). Runes suggest that will happen. Bearfest Nikkei and Dev Mkt stocks Q2/3, maybe even into 2015. NB. Govt bonds have been doing great this year and no wonder. PMs have good chance of explosion up with such bearishness in shares. On verra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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