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Rics Report September

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Samuel Dickey MRICS, GOC Estate Agents, Belfast, NI, 028 90 662 366 - The media coverage of the budget cuts and budget deficit drains confidence from buyers. As interest rates remain low, sellers can afford to maintain their asking prices at a high level.

Imagine that! Those bad people in the media letting people know how bad the economic situation is

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Alot of people in here blame Helen and Co for hyping up the property bubble. There is a lot to be said about that. Personally I blame the banks as we (without any foundation) seem to accept their standing in the community as greater holders of knowledge on such matters. I remember asking a good friend why he had borrowed £m's to buy land in the west of NI in 2005/2006. To me this was utter madness and I was concerned. What had he seen or learned that give him this unshakable confidence. His answer shook me. He said, shrugging his shoulders. If xxx Bank is willing to give it out to me to buy land, who am I to argue. In hindsight it is incredibly stupid to trust the opinion of a bounis collecting sales man. But at that time most were of the opinion that the banks wouldn't be putting this kind of money out if they thought there was any great risk.

The point I am making is we seen this happening and alot fell for the 'new paragrom' theory. 90% of the 'sheepie'(as they call them in here) trusted these fools and all the media hype that went with it.

Equally they now believe everything in the media again. Bad news sells papers and down south it is worse. When Labour was in power (most of) the media was 'sunny side up'. Green shoots and all that. They seem to have received different instructions now and I am fine with that. I don't go in for all that conspiracy thing but if I was a Tory Leader I would be saying we have four years to start looking good. Get all the gloom out of the way now and blame the last guys. But in years 3 and 4 we need to be able to show some real improvement or we are gone.

Maybe I am giving them too much credit. I don't know. but one thing for sure - what controls house prices is not so much demand and supply its the supply of credit and the supply of sentiment. The latter is lower supply than the former at the moment. I understand why they blame the media, but you cant really blame the media. When they hyped it up the same people didn't complain.

Question:-How do you prepare the people for 10% cuts.

Answer - convince them they are going to get 20%

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Question:-How do you prepare the people for 10% cuts.

Answer - convince them they are going to get 20%

You've just summed up politics ;)

The sight of the FM & DFM on the news earlier pleading for extra capital spending as we are coming out of "conflict" turned my stomach :ph34r:

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Back to the RICS Report. I got these figures from the CML. They cover the amount of mortgages for house purchases (both new and movers, but not re-mortgages). Interesting thing is they peaked in 2003 (or perhaps earlier). In 2006 when NI property was booming the transaction rate slowed. 2008 slowed even more and volume recovered, as little in 2009 and the first half of 2010. (I imagine volume will fall again). However this shows that volume, which I am interested in, had started to recover.

Year Mortgages approved for house purchases

2003 35,100

2004 30,200

2005 26,100

2006 28,000

2007 18,400

2008 8,700

2009 10,100

2010 5,000 first 6 mths

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Back to the RICS Report. I got these figures from the CML. They cover the amount of mortgages for house purchases (both new and movers, but not re-mortgages). Interesting thing is they peaked in 2003 (or perhaps earlier). In 2006 when NI property was booming the transaction rate slowed. 2008 slowed even more and volume recovered, as little in 2009 and the first half of 2010. (I imagine volume will fall again). However this shows that volume, which I am interested in, had started to recover.

Year Mortgages approved for house purchases

2003 35,100

2004 30,200

2005 26,100

2006 28,000

2007 18,400

2008 8,700

2009 10,100

2010 5,000 first 6 mths

interesting

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Reminds me of the FTB proportion of house buyers from the HE report;

Approximately read from the graph;

2001 60%

2002 50%

2003 36%

2004 35%

2005 34%

2006 32%

2007 30%

2008 25%

Long term decline, investors replacing FTBs, to me indicates the broken housing market, mainly caused by deregulation of banking.

Edited by Ride_on

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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