Wind Farms Topic

[Kurt Barlow]

you forgot the customary

FOR TWO HA PENNY

No £400 Million at 1980 prices. However it paid for itself in 4-5 years in savings on spinning reserve and allowing Coal stations to run at more efficient outputs

Dinorwic can ramp at a rate approximately 150 times higher than coal or CCGT. Its ramp rate is the equivalent of 3000MW a minute. I beleive CCGT and Coal is around 10-12MW

[cells]

I wasn't criticising our Hydro resources - they are quite useful albeit small

As for your comment about wind - I presume you are playing the same trick Pick it Down was yesterday by implying the outturn on the NETA site reflects all wind power production. It doesnt - it only monitors 39-40%. Anything you read on there in respect of wind needs to be multiplied by 2.5 to give a more realistic figure. I don't deny though, tomorrow is not looking good for wind production

As for wind power making fossil plant less efficient - can you explain. From what I recall a turbines efficiency is not at its peak output and indeed the addition of Dinorwic to the national grid allowed many power stations to be run at more optimum outputs by taking up demand spikes.

coal and gas have a cost in ramping up and down. It is the reason we use oil/pumped storage/ open cycle/ etc even when we have spare capacity.

With lots of wind the fossil fuel plants need to ramp more and work less efficiently as a result. So indirectly wind farms are burning coal and gas. Not sure of the exact efficiency loss from ramping though, id be interested if you find details.

[Kurt Barlow]

FOR TWO HA PENNY

Ammonia would likely be a lot less than 50% efficient, and the thing is you do need to store tremendous amounts of power with renewables. Sometimes weeks worth. Near impossible.

I would agree pumped storage is much better

Ammonia would be better as a large vehicle fuel. Haber Bosch is about 75% efficient. I beleive there are some improved techniques in the 80-85% range.

[cells]

Yes but 99.999% of those sqaure metres can still be farmed or fished, or built upon

yeh but I like most others don’t want one in my back yard. It might kill my pet pigion.

plus what do you think would happen to the power density if 75% of the country was covered in wind farms? You don’t think the wind would slow down and cause claim it change at those scales?

[Long Way Down]

It is quite clear that the latter loss of two-thirds is of the one-third remaining after the initial loss, ie leaving one ninth left over.

I think we should have a Maths thread where AGWers can learn the basics.

So you are saying that pumped storage is only 10% efficient?

I think you should learn some basics!

[cells]

The Conscious decision of many Governents and organisations around that world is that renewables are a desirable development however market barriers exist because the new tech doesn't have the economies of scale that fossil fuels have. The subsidy is not a permanent feature of the technology but a means to allow it to be scaled up.

This approach at least puts the World in a position to ride out the decline in FF availability. Your Ostrich approach is a one way ticket back to the stone age.

Renewables subsidies have been a few percent of what nuclear got yet by the end of the year we will have 6GW of wind online and the cost of wind power has fallen to where it has parity with peak rate electricity. Likewise solar costs are falling rapidly with even domestic installations coming in at less than £2 a watt of capacity.

all great but afaik a wind farm produced today we will be subsidising for decades even if new turbines are cheaper. So why do it now, let Germany subsidise it and we can buy it when they work unsubsidised.

Btw wind would need to produce at sub 2p to be useful large scale. Nowhere close to it atm.

And I would bet a large sum the maintenance costs go sky high once they have installed a bunch.

[Kurt Barlow]

yeh but I like most others don’t want one in my back yard. It might kill my pet pigion.

plus what do you think would happen to the power density if 75% of the country was covered in wind farms? You don’t think the wind would slow down and cause claim it change at those scales?

No one is suggesting covering the whole country. However we do have 100,000's km2 of shallow sea bed on which we can easily build the turbines. In some locations they would achieve capacity factors of 40% plus.

Add wave power into the mix which is far steadier and predominantly available in winter. Please don't offer a lecture on wave power - I have been offshore sailing for over 20 years in the Atlantic and North Sea

Tidal is totally predictable and availble every day albeit the peak advancing by about 1 hour every day

As for Pigeons they are officially a pest

Solar ain't great for the Uk but would tend to balance out lulls in wind - low wind conditions tend to be sunny.

[cells]

You really are a grade A cretin. I have said here 100 times that Wind is not a total solution

The Uk could however produce 20% of its electricity from wind without major grid adjustments.

The Uk could produce the equivalent of 50-60% if we adopt electric transport and increase storage - Pump storage / ammonia/ demand management

for 3 ha penny or for 2 ha penny?

We could power the country with hamsters if we throw enough money at it, the question isnt wind. The question is wind and no NHS or police or army or schools or some service. It isnt just wind or no wind!

what service will you cut to pay for it?

and btw 20% of our electric from wind = 8GWe average = 14GW of gas out of 300GW of fossil fuels.

wow, we reduce consumption by nearly a whole 5%, pat yourself on the back!

[cells]

No £400 Million at 1980 prices. However it paid for itself in 4-5 years in savings on spinning reserve and allowing Coal stations to run at more efficient outputs

Dinorwic can ramp at a rate approximately 150 times higher than coal or CCGT. Its ramp rate is the equivalent of 3000MW a minute. I beleive CCGT and Coal is around 10-12MW

and your point is....

[Kurt Barlow]

coal and gas have a cost in ramping up and down. It is the reason we use oil/pumped storage/ open cycle/ etc even when we have spare capacity.

With lots of wind the fossil fuel plants need to ramp more and work less efficiently as a result. So indirectly wind farms are burning coal and gas. Not sure of the exact efficiency loss from ramping though, id be interested if you find details.

Coal fired power stations have a ramp rate in the region of 17% of capacity an hour. Drax for example can go from say 3000 to 3680MW in 60 minutes and in a given minute add about 50MW.

Compare that to Dinorwic - 0-1728MW in 2 minutes

http://www.ipplc.com/ipr/investors/resultspresentations/rp2005/hydrosite05/hydrosite05.pdf

[cells]

No one is suggesting covering the whole country. However we do have 100,000's km2 of shallow sea bed on which we can easily build the turbines. In some locations they would achieve capacity factors of 40% plus.

Add wave power into the mix which is far steadier and predominantly available in winter. Please don't offer a lecture on wave power - I have been offshore sailing for over 20 years in the Atlantic and North Sea

Tidal is totally predictable and availble every day albeit the peak advancing by about 1 hour every day

As for Pigeons they are officially a pest

Solar ain't great for the Uk but would tend to balance out lulls in wind - low wind conditions tend to be sunny.

why not post a reasonable energy plan then, do it on a new post. I would be very interested.

Make sure you provide all the power we need when we need it. Most importantly I would like to know which of the following you will cut to pay for it. Police? Firemen? Education? The NHS?

BTW I would be in favour of scrapping the NHS and going 100% wind. The NHS is worse than wind farms! (but im sure the 250,000 extra people dieing per year would be unhappy)

[Kurt Barlow]

and your point is....

£400 million (at 1980 prices) bought the equivalent of 17 Drax power stations in terms of immediate response power (within 2 minutes)

[cells]

Coal fired power stations have a ramp rate in the region of 17% of capacity an hour. Drax for example can go from say 3000 to 3680MW in 60 minutes and in a given minute add about 50MW.

Compare that to Dinorwic - 0-1728MW in 2 minutes

http://www.ipplc.com/ipr/investors/resultspresentations/rp2005/hydrosite05/hydrosite05.pdf

and that helps how?

We know very accurately what demand will be like.

And having nearly 50GWe capacity of coal and gas, if ramping at your 17% means they can ramp nearly 10GW an hour. Or 1GW every 6 minutes. Demand prediction isnt that bad, and even if it was in a few minutes you can ramp GW from the coal and gas.

Still not sure why you think ramping so fast on the hydro is important. Plus you do know the pumped storage is in effect using fossil fuels? About 20% of what a coal/gas station would do?

[Pick It Down]

low wind conditions tend to be sunny.

Kurt Barlow, the expert on everything

We quite often get stagnant, cold, cloudy anti-cyclones in winter due to our proximity to oceans.

Sunny conditions in summer are more prevalent before 8am and after 6pm as we get convective infill of clouds through peak sunshine hours. These aren't times of peak demand (in summer this is 9am-3pm due to ramping of aircon load)

So you're wrong for about the 20th time on this thread.

[Kurt Barlow]

why not post a reasonable energy plan then, do it on a new post. I would be very interested.

Make sure you provide all the power we need when we need it. Most importantly I would like to know which of the following you will cut to pay for it. Police? Firemen? Education? The NHS?

BTW I would be in favour of scrapping the NHS and going 100% wind. The NHS is worse than wind farms! (but im sure the 250,000 extra people dieing per year would be unhappy)

OK - In the Cells plan - cheap available gas for ever more. Factor in the effect of 6-8 hour rolling power cuts on the economic productivity of this Country. Then calculate what this would cost in terms of education, health, fireman, policemen..........

[cells]

£400 million (at 1980 prices) bought the equivalent of 17 Drax power stations in terms of immediate response power (within 2 minutes)

and my desktop power laser has a power output equivlant to more than the uk output and only cost a grand....

so what?

how is it critical or that important?

And £400m in 1980 is equivlant to some £7B today (assuming 10% interest rate back then). That seems like a very very very shit investment if you figures are correct!

[Kurt Barlow]

Kurt Barlow, the expert on everything

We quite often get stagnant, cold, cloudy anti-cyclones in winter due to our proximity to oceans.

Sunny conditions in summer are more prevalent before 8am and after 6pm as we get convective infill of clouds through peak sunshine hours. These aren't times of peak demand (in summer this is 9am-3pm due to ramping of aircon load)

So you're wrong for about the 20th time on this thread.

I said 'tend' not absolute.

In anycase such conditions have no effect on tidal and only limited effect on waves in the western approaches due to the fetch of the ocean.

Are you still maintaining Dinorwic has a cycle efficiency of 10%?

[cells]

OK - In the Cells plan - cheap available gas for ever more. Factor in the effect of 6-8 hour rolling power cuts on the economic productivity of this Country. Then calculate what this would cost in terms of education, health, fireman, policemen..........

Hey you had all the answers, why not give a full proper plan?

Its harder than you think and impossible to pay for, perhaps that’s why you don’t even try?

My plan isn’t gas for ever more, it is fossil fuels for at least a few more decades. Why through our country into relative poverty before we have to?

So I repeat, do an energy plan and post about it.

[Kurt Barlow]

and my desktop power laser has a power output equivlant to more than the uk output and only cost a grand....

so what?

how is it critical or that important?

And £400m in 1980 is equivlant to some £7B today (assuming 10% interest rate back then). That seems like a very very very shit investment if you figures are correct!

WTF - do you think we have the same inflation rate as Zimbabwe over the same period.

It paid for itself in 4 years - thereafter you can assume it made £100m a year equivalent.

[Pick It Down]

Add wave power into the mix which is far steadier and predominantly available in winter. Please don't offer a lecture on wave power - I have been offshore sailing for over 20 years in the Atlantic and North Sea

Tidal is totally predictable and availble every day albeit the peak advancing by about 1 hour every day

I suppose you'd enforce on the nation they must use most power to coincide with the tides then. Energy has to be responsive, it can't just spill on to the network at whatever rate it fancies - there's this unfortunate matter that electricity demand and supply has to be balanced and it's exceptionally expensive to get anything more than token storage.

[cells]

WTF - do you think we have the same inflation rate as Zimbabwe over the same period.

It paid for itself in 4 years - thereafter you can assume it made £100m a year equivalent.

I take it your accounting skills are poor

What was the government 30 year bond rate back then? 10-15%??

If 10% it meant that £400m is worth nearly £7B today.

Seems a big waste of money. £7B could buy you a lot of nukes or even wind farms today.

As for it paying for itself back quickly, I doubt that and the industry wasn’t in a fixed market back then so I doubt it was free fair payback.

[Kurt Barlow]

Hey you had all the answers, why not give a full proper plan?

Its harder than you think and impossible to pay for, perhaps thats why you dont even try?

My plan isnt gas for ever more, it is fossil fuels for at least a few more decades. Why through our country into relative poverty before we have to?

So I repeat, do an energy plan and post about it.

Build 5GW of wind capacity annually. With economies of scale you are looking at £2000 / KW on first life cycle of 25 years and about £1000 on 2nd life cycle (£10BN a year - how much did we put into the banking sector last year )

By year 25 - 125GW of wind delivering 274 TWH of electricity (25% capacity factor)

Build 10GW of tidal which is mainly a one off (Bristol Channel) (22 TWH) £10bn to build??

Wave farms - (£3m per MW) spaced at 20MW per km2

72GW off West Country over 25 years (£9bn a year) 262 TWH

For starters with an annual investment of less than £20bn a year by 2035 we have an infrastructure producing 155% of our current electricity requirements. For less than last years banking bail outs (£500bn) . Instead of paying for the bankers whores and coke - we get to produce lots of steel and concrete, employ lots of marine engineers, welder, mechanics, electricians etc etc etc

I am not anti nuclear so by all means start up a nuclear program. perhaps initially PWR / EPR's and later on FBR's

[Kurt Barlow]

I take it your accounting skills are poor

What was the government 30 year bond rate back then? 10-15%??

If 10% it meant that £400m is worth nearly £7B today.

Seems a big waste of money. £7B could buy you a lot of nukes or even wind farms today.

As for it paying for itself back quickly, I doubt that and the industry wasnt in a fixed market back then so I doubt it was free fair payback.

Surely then that applies to anything built in that period - roads, hospitals, schools.

The £1500 ford escort my dad bought actually cost him £99,000 at todays prices?

[Kurt Barlow]

I take it your accounting skills are poor

What was the government 30 year bond rate back then? 10-15%??

If 10% it meant that £400m is worth nearly £7B today.

Seems a big waste of money. £7B could buy you a lot of nukes or even wind farms today.

As for it paying for itself back quickly, I doubt that and the industry wasn’t in a fixed market back then so I doubt it was free fair payback.

It was based on the amount of coal / oil not burned at 1980 - 1984 prices.

[Kurt Barlow]

I take it your accounting skills are poor

What was the government 30 year bond rate back then? 10-15%??

If 10% it meant that £400m is worth nearly £7B today.

Seems a big waste of money. £7B could buy you a lot of nukes or even wind farms today.

As for it paying for itself back quickly, I doubt that and the industry wasn’t in a fixed market back then so I doubt it was free fair payback.

I highly doubt the 30 year bond rate was anywhere near 10 let alone 15%. I remember buying fixed rate 5 year Government bonds at 12.75% when interest rates were 15% in 1991. Bloomin good buy them as soon after the £ dropped out the ERM and rates crashed!

On the same basis we shouldnt build anything today at all

The Government rate is say 4%

Which means if they build a £5bn Nuc with a 60 year life it would actually Cost £52bn.....