Is The Property Market Still In Deep Recession? - No 2

[DaisyB]

I've added some northern cities, a total and a trend line, please bear in mind that the last couple of months of data is a bit suspect as the LR figures volume figures are incomplete.

The trend reminds me of a aqua park camel hump slide (House Price Splash?) and implies that volume is still declining.

I must do some real work now, but I do actually need an Excel spreadsheet of timeline data for testing

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

Last week I started a thread with the title posing the question - is the property market still in deep recession? - Discuss.

It would be interesting to see similar data for other people's locations.

great thread Alfie Moon.

[Alfie Moon]

great thread Alfie Moon.

Yes, with great work by DaisyB.

[Liquid Goldfish]

delete - alreday covered

Edited September 10, 2009 by newdman

[DaisyB]

Sorry, realised that the previous upload was truncated on the right

[Alfie Moon]

just had a thought

do home.co.uk get their data from the Land Registry?

and don't you have 3 months to register a sale with the LR

if so June and July figures may not be final

DaisyB has already alluded to this. There will be some drift up with the last couple months in the current series but it is unlikely to be anything drastic. Even if another 10% or 15% was added the stats would still reveal that transaction levels have remained deeply embedded in crash territory. Just look at the data (which is showing a consistent pattern across locations) to see the difference between 2009/2008 stats versus 2007/2006........ there would have to be a gigantic amount of missing/late data to add to the current stats for there to be even a mere whiff of a recovery in sales transactions.

Edited September 10, 2009 by Alfie Moon

[DaisyB]

just had a thought

do home.co.uk get their data from the Land Registry?

and don't you have 3 months to register a sale with the LR

if so June and July figures may not be final

Yes, that is the case, in fact it can be longer so the later data points on the chart are subject to revision and I'd expect the July figures to increase when the August figures are first posted

[dredwerker]

BN1 - large part of Brighton - Jan to June figures for comparison

2006 - 957 (year total 2112)

2007 - 891 (1760)

2008 - 510 (885)

2009 - 360

However, from Jan to June 09, sales figures show a definite Spring bounce :

jan 37

feb 36

mar 57

apr 56

may 71

jun 103

Compare to 2008 :

jan 93

feb 109

mar 75

apr 76

may 92

jun 65

jul 89

aug 68

sep 52

oct 51

nov 57

dec 58

and 2007 :

jan 148

feb 136

mar 164

apr 123

may 152

jun 168

jul 138

aug 195

sep 150

oct 142

nov 135

dec 109

Who knows where it is headed next??

Dont fancy doing BN3 do ya?

Thanks for doing BN1. Brighton is always going to be a bit random compared with say Lancing as people like Peter Andre buy a place etc..

[abharrisson]

Interesting.

And supply?

Quite right and of course therein lies trhe problem with the OP's whole point... it's just not as simple as saying x,y,z houses were sold, this is lower than previous figures therefore theres a recession on.

To illustrate the point some regional postcodes may well have seen higher numbers of sold houses ( for all sorts of reasons)... would this mean the direction of house prices in that area is different from that experienced in the next door postcode which for instance had a new build development the year before but none this year..... if no one offers a house for sale ( which has probably happened in some small postcodes , what does that tell you about the nature of the market there vs the postcode next door where ten were sold which was 50% down on the year previously?

[Alfie Moon]

Quite right and of course therein lies trhe problem with the OP's whole point... it's just not as simple as saying x,y,z houses were sold, this is lower than previous figures therefore theres a recession on.

To illustrate the point some regional postcodes may well have seen higher numbers of sold houses ( for all sorts of reasons)... would this mean the direction of house prices in that area is different from that experienced in the next door postcode which for instance had a new build development the year before but none this year..... if no one offers a house for sale ( which has probably happened in some small postcodes , what does that tell you about the nature of the market there vs the postcode next door where ten were sold which was 50% down on the year previously?

Sorry, but I disagree with you abharrisson. Thus far, although small as a sample, it is remarkable as to how each location is showing the same pattern of collapse in transaction levels as well as a lack of recovery in sales figures.

Doesn't show that the property market remains in deep recession????? Really!! If we take Worcester for example and compare the yearly stats of number sales achieved:

2006 - 2690

2007 - 2179

2008 - 1180

2009 - 448 (up till end of June)

You can't see the dramatic drop in Estate Agents productivity? What do you think has happened to Estate Agents income/profit levels during this time frame in Worcester?

I think your point would have some validity if the drop in numbers of transactions had not been so massive (for example 2008 was about 56% lower than levels achieved in 2006 and 2009 is shaping up to be worse or similar to 2008) - the picture would indeed be murky. In terms of income/profit levels for Estate Agents it is not just the collapse in transaction levels that will have savaged their incomes/profits when comparing years across the time frame it is also the fact that, despite any small rises on a MoM basis this year, prices have fallen by 20% since the autumn of 2007.

When considering their productivity levels - if measured by numbers of sales achieved - combined with income/profit levels do you really seriously doubt that the property market remains in deep recession in Worcester and elsewhere?

What percentage of postcodes do you think your point would make any significant impact on? It is likely to be a small minority of postcodes.

Edited September 10, 2009 by Alfie Moon

[DaisyB]

I'd like to add that the graph (uploaded again as it is a page back now) uses the city/town names shown in the legend as the search term for Home.co.uk with the exception of Brighton which is for the BN1 postcode. This should mean that a fairly wide range of property types and areas is included in the data thus allowing for the neighbourhood differences. For example I can be certain that 'Cheltenham' includes postcodes in both desireable and undesireable areas and I feel confident that the same applies to the other examples

(edit for syntax)

Edited September 10, 2009 by DaisyB