ralphmalph Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Roubini-Usha...set=&ccode= Roubini. Beginning of year Great Depression. March - wait for the next big financial implosion stock markets to tank June - Double dip recession stock markets will go below previous low 50% falls from here. Sept - I have been completely worng all year and do not have a clue about what I am talking about but boy do I love being on CNBC with all those nice girls with big hair. So now it is going to be a U shaped recovery. After calling the credit crunch how much more credibility can the man lose in 12 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomandlu Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Roubini-Usha...set=&ccode=Roubini. Beginning of year Great Depression. March - wait for the next big financial implosion stock markets to tank June - Double dip recession stock markets will go below previous low 50% falls from here. Sept - I have been completely worng all year and do not have a clue about what I am talking about but boy do I love being on CNBC with all those nice girls with big hair. So now it is going to be a U shaped recovery. After calling the credit crunch how much more credibility can the man lose in 12 months. Well, he says a U-shape is "possible" - not even 'likely' or 'probable'. Even he presumably can't see the point of saying "there's nothing we can do about it - we're f***ed" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abharrisson Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 So this guy, the darling of the board when predicting doom and gloom has currently lost his shine I see... like all these market pundits and chartisits they come and go, inevitably the odd one gets its spectacularly right but then struggles to predict what the lights will go to next after red....... personally I have little time for these media pundits, they have their moment in the sun, get all fluffed up and then eventually realise it was a lucky guess after all.... black swans .. much favoured recently , I suspect have now gone the way of black tulips before them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr ray Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 (edited) What are you critical of? Essentially he is saying that one day there will be a recovery but it won't be soon. Can't really argue with that. Edited September 4, 2009 by dr ray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stonethecrows Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 (edited) So this guy, the darling of the board when predicting doom and gloom has currently lost his shine I see... like all these market pundits and chartisits they come and go, inevitably the odd one gets its spectacularly right but then struggles to predict what the lights will go to next after red....... personally I have little time for these media pundits, they have their moment in the sun, get all fluffed up and then eventually realise it was a lucky guess after all.... black swans .. much favoured recently , I suspect have now gone the way of black tulips before them. I think Taleb referred to his latest commentary in an interview going back around 6 months-he didn't think he was bearish enough. Ive got to say too that he seems to have been 'got at' by somebody, somewhere because I can no longer see what he is relating to in arriving at these conclusions. At one time he talked a fair bit of sense about the systemic risks though I did not agree with his own prescription for dealing with it. He has gone awry along the lines. Still, everyone has their price I suppose: Editted to add: Even within this one article he is inconsistent in where he thinks it is going-he is calling it a U shaped recovery but further down what he is describing is a lot more like the L shaped one he originally called. Edited September 4, 2009 by stonethecrows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Roubini-Usha...set=&ccode=Roubini. Beginning of year Great Depression. March - wait for the next big financial implosion stock markets to tank June - Double dip recession stock markets will go below previous low 50% falls from here. Sept - I have been completely worng all year and do not have a clue about what I am talking about but boy do I love being on CNBC with all those nice girls with big hair. So now it is going to be a U shaped recovery. After calling the credit crunch how much more credibility can the man lose in 12 months. doesnt look u shaped to me but depends what your measuring GDP in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 He's been all over the place with his predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr ray Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 doesnt look u shaped to mebut depends what your measuring GDP in Nice graphs It isn't U shaped because we havent had the recovery yet. Are you saying there will never be a recovery? If the recovery happens in 15years it will still be U shaped. All he is saying is that one day there will be a recovery....probably. I would stick my neck out and say he is right....probably Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 He's been all over the place with his predictions. I'm sure if you could see where his bank deposits were coming from, you might see why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 Nice graphsIt isn't U shaped because we havent had the recovery yet. Are you saying there will never be a recovery? If the recovery happens in 15years it will still be U shaped. All he is saying is that one day there will be a recovery....probably. I would stick my neck out and say he is right....probably depends on your gradient for the U there will be a recovery when the government and the bankers get the hell out of the way, but they are trying to delay the pain of the malinvestment that has already happened and they will make the problem far worse just like they interfeared in the 30's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radge Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 By my reading of the article his tune hasn't changed that much, still pretty bearish. In among it all he utters a 3yr U shape is possible and that becomes the headline. Perhaps if you read the words and not the spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 He's been all over the place with his predictions. Perhaps Roubini is being more clever than we think? What about if Roubini is in fact talking about a prolonged recession and is avoiding the "technical" recession bu11shit? Just another thought I had afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphmalph Posted September 4, 2009 Author Share Posted September 4, 2009 When he is kitted out in Nike kit at the next interview it is going to be the Swoosh shape economy with some Pro V topping and he will keep saying "Make the Difference. Make the Difference." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spivT Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 the problem roubini has, not dissimilar to mainstream economists, is that they don't understand how the modern monetary system works. That's why in the same breath he would talk about the need for aggressive fiscal stimulus but then the dangers of a double dip based it appears on the risks associated with running large budget deficits. Well, duhhhhh. How else is agressive fiscal stimulus funded if not throught budget deficits. He's confused. The only risk the G20 is running is not addressing the issue of job creation and employment utilizaiton as part of the stimulus. I don't see a danger of them easing stimlus to soon or not going far enough. Hence no douple dip, only an ubnemployment headache for years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 When he is kitted out in Nike kit at the next interview it is going to be the Swoosh shape economy with some Pro V topping and he will keep saying "Make the Difference. Make the Difference." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzstick Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 More on Roubini: Daily Telegraph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted September 5, 2009 Share Posted September 5, 2009 More on Roubini:Daily Telegraph A nice extract from it... So no, the lugubrious Nouriel did not strike me as a quitter on this one. By the way, I deplore the spate of recent articles calling him “False Prophet†or worse – combing through everything he has said over the years to expose inconsistencies. The world economy is a fiendishly complicated mechanism. The picture changes all the time as geo-politics intrudes, and market psychology goes through its convulsions. Emergencies call for action that one might abhor in different times. To be rigid is to be mindless. Roubini has been consistent for a very long time on the one point that matters: that debts were too high, are still too high, and must inflict lasting damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Parry aka GOD Posted September 5, 2009 Share Posted September 5, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Roubini-Usha...set=&ccode=Roubini. Beginning of year Great Depression. March - wait for the next big financial implosion stock markets to tank June - Double dip recession stock markets will go below previous low 50% falls from here. Sept - I have been completely worng all year and do not have a clue about what I am talking about but boy do I love being on CNBC with all those nice girls with big hair. So now it is going to be a U shaped recovery. After calling the credit crunch how much more credibility can the man lose in 12 months. I reckon the old boys' seriously on the drink. A proper juicer. Dragged through hedge backwards is the only way to describe him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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