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We're Absolutely Doomed To Ruin


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If you're right then I suspect that another "tangible" holding that some of us here possess would come into its own. Shan't mention it, otherwise the thread will end up in another forum.

Nothing to do with your avatar by any chance? :lol:

I'm with you there by the way, I'm up to my neck in the stuff (as much as a man of my limited means can be), and after the recent 'breather' if unfolding events I had been getting a little nervous that I'd jumped the gun, but now I'm inclined to believe I'm sitting very pretty indeed. Bring on the carnage.

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If your wages match inflation, the mortgage gets paid off quickly though.

Errr, your forgetting where interest rates would be!

I really am stunned where common sense goes sometimes. People will have their hands full paying the utility bills and buying food. There will be no HPI on a grand scale, far from it. For a start there will be no banks willing or able to mortgage property at inflated levels! There will be still more companies turning their toes up and mass unemployment. People will be trying to sell their homes, they will have no choice!

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Mate it's been all TFH for well over a year now, and the world hasn't ended.

In fact the recession has by common concensus passed its worst point.

Now I don't believe for a minute that we will return to healthy growth any time soon, the recession has a way to go. But the more extreme views on here, yours included, are increasingly looking wide of the mark.

This is a bad recession. We have shedloads of debt. It will weigh on us for many years and we will not experience boom times again for possibly a very long time indeed. We will be forced, probably against our will, into some tough decisions as a country. None of this is rosy, and FWIW I think house prices will fall a lot, as unemployment rises a lot.

But face facts - the world ain't gonna end. This is not Zimbabwe. Your smug endless predictions of doom are a little tedious, especially with so little by way of evidence or facts to back them up <_<

LOL Your in for a shock!

World trade is broken and workers in India and China will work for far less money than the West...think about it!

Yes we will get a deflationary death spiral...it will be high/hyper inflation 1st tho.

Edited by spp
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It is only pieces of metal, agreed. However, it is pieces of a metal that has more or less held its purchasing power for thousands of years. No currency has stood that test of time - not one. I hope that I might be able to exchange my metal for "real" things if and when the purchasing power of our current paper currencies diminish significantly. If this doesn't happen and my pieces of metal lose significant purchasing power, well that means I made a bad choice and I'll live with the consequences.

Most of the money used to buy it came from property appreciation so I'm fairly relaxed about the eventual purchasing power of the pieces of metal - easy come, easy go as they say. I have reasonable cash reserves in addition so hoping to cover all likely eventualities.

If we get into real TEOTWAWKI territory, I agree that my pieces of metal will have no direct practical value, but I may be able to either exchange them for more practical items, or use them to help me and my loved ones escape the country.

Indeed narrowescape.

All this talk that gold is going to be no good and firearms and food is the only answer is nonsense. I don't think there has been a time since money was invented that it ever went out of fashion, it's too bloody useful as medium of exchange in complex multi-threaded markets. Gold has shown itself to be the ultimate medium of exchange over the millennia. Show me anyone is this world who has never heard of gold...

Sure, a nice bit of farmland, or at least a large garden to grow your own veg or keep some animals on is very useful in an unstable and/or hyper-inflationary economy, as is a shotgun to keep thieving chavs off your valued crops. However, no farmer wants to eat all his own crops, he wants to sell some so he can buy other goods/services that he requires. Just as all retailers or tradesman want to sell their goods or skills in exchange for other goods/services. If our current monetary system collapses people will seek other options in order to acquire the goods of others, these are:

1. Misappropriation of others property, through violence if necessary.

2. Barter

3. Using a suitable replacement currency that is widely trusted.

As things go downhill we will see an increase in crime, so I agree it may be useful to own a shotgun and a few sharp knives. As a cautionary measure I bought an air pistol recently for this very reason. It's not going to kill anyone of course, but it looks like the real thing and is quite handy to have under the bed as a deterrent to any would be burglar. Not to mention that a couple of pellets in the face, should I find my bluff being called, would no doubt work splendidly as a means of non-lethal force to temporarily stop any would be attacker, allowing me enough time to pick up the baseball bat I also have under the bed to ram the message home that my property belongs to me (you chav scum!).

However, most people are upstanding citizens, even in hard times, and will seek to get along as best they can within the law. In order to circumnavigate a collapsing currency this majority have the option to barter with each other for goods/services (a very cumbersome method of exchange in today's environment) or to use another form of widely accepted money. This is why, short of global nuclear apocalypse, gold is one of the best assets to hold at the moment.

Edited by General Congreve
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LOL Your in for a shock!

World trade is broken and workers in India and China will work for far less money than the West...think about it!

Yes we will get a deflationary death spiral...it will be high/hyper inflation 1st tho.

It will be deflation first. They hyperinflation. Think about it.

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Real wages and real values will go down, regardless of the inflationary situation. The advantage of inflation for the bankers/governments is that it reduces the value of debt.

This is the crux of the problem - the bankers/governments don't want the burden of compound debt deflation, and so have tried to ease this through the pseudo-scientific method of QE. This hasn't worked, as the debt hole keeps opening wider and wider. Therefore they either surrender to deflation, or take the risk of a more reckless monetary blitz by printing until inflation (and probably hyperinflation) appears. You think they will do the former. DaddyBear thinks they will do the latter. Most people are on the sideline either eating popcorn or hoarding gold.

Very good point. Basically wages down, prices up. That is what is going to happen. The West, especially the UK, are broke, this means we are going to be poorer, this means life becomes more expensive. Welcome to Zimbabwe on Thames.

Edited by General Congreve
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Indeed narrowescape.

All this talk that gold is going to be no good and firearms and food is the only answer is nonsense. I don't think there has been a time since money was invented that it ever went out of fashion, it's too bloody useful as medium of exchange in complex multi-threaded markets. Gold has shown itself to be the ultimate medium of exchange over the millennia. Show me anyone is this world who has never heard of gold...

Sure, a nice bit of farmland, or at least a large garden to grow your own veg or keep some animals on is very useful in an unstable and/or hyper-inflationary economy, as is a shotgun to keep thieving chavs off your valued crops. However, no farmer wants to eat all his own crops, he wants to sell some so he can buy other goods/services that he requires. Just as all retailers or tradesman want to sell their goods or skills in exchange for other goods/services. If our current monetary system collapses people will seek other options in order to acquire the goods of others, these are:

1. Misappropriation of others property, through violence if necessary.

2. Barter

3. Using a suitable replacement currency that is widely trusted.

As things go downhill we will see an increase in crime, so I agree it may be useful to own a shotgun and a few sharp knives. As a cautionary measure I bought an air pistol recently for this very reason. It's not going to kill anyone of course, but it looks like the real thing and is quite handy to have under the bed as a deterrent to any would be burglar. Not to mention that a couple of pellets in the face, should I find my bluff being called, would no doubt work splendidly as a means of non-lethal force to temporarily stop any would be attacker, allowing me enough time to pick up the baseball bat I also have under the bed to ram the message home that my property belongs to me (you chav scum!).

However, most people are upstanding citizens, even in hard times, and will seek to get along as best they can within the law. In order to circumnavigate a collapsing currency this majority have the option to barter with each other for goods/services (a very cumbersome method of exchange in today's environment) or to use another form of widely accepted money. This is why, short of global nuclear apocalypse, gold is one of the best assets to hold at the moment.

You won't be surprised to hear that I agree with the above. Another good reason for holding gold (IMO) is the possibility of bank defaults. So far no (private) UK bank account holder has lost any money when banks have got into trouble. There may come a point where the QE tap is switched off with the express purpose of avoiding high/hyper inflation. If a bond strike were also to occur there would simply be no more government money for further bank bailouts. Should a bank get into trouble at this point it may well go tits. I'd rather have the majority of my savings in a form that can't be instantly vaporised should such a situation arise.

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It will be deflation first. They hyperinflation. Think about it.

No you think about it. For as long as they can print money we will get inflation. When they can no longer print money out of thin air thats backed by nothing the fun really begins.

I think the Inflation/deflation debate is getting a bit old anyway.

Maybe a collapse scenario is more appropriate!

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Its not a case of will they wont they.

They are printing money and its not creating inflation.

One delivery mechanism is not working, but what if they try another. Eg. an Australian/US relstyle stimulus package. Print lots of GBP and send every one a cheque for 5000 or 10000. Surely inflation would shoot up.

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