Trying To Convince My Sister To Get Out Now ! Help.

[Guest An Bearin Bui]

I was speaking to my Sister and she wants to sell her house if she can, BUT she will only sell for what the house is worth to her ....I know ...bless.

I was hoping that you HPC ers might recommend some subtle (or not so subtle arguments) that I can use when I call her next.

Have you come across the Irish answer to this site? It's The Property Pin and is really good for tracking price falls and HPC-related news. One of the major issues in Ireland is that estate agents refuse to publish sold prices for houses so there is effectively no national register of sold prices like the UK Land Registry. This is a big bone of contention as there's no way of knowing how much property sells for so those living on the banks of De Nile can continue in their deluded state for all eternity, if they wish. If it was the UK, you could direct your sister to Property Bee or other sites and show her the hard cold facts of what her house is now worth.

As it is, you'll just have to try and dig out information yourself on prices of houses that have sold locally. Without a database, it's harder as your sister can always find excuses as to why her house should be worth more. The market is officially estimated to have fallen 20% in Ireland since the peak in early 2007 but estate agents are widely admitting that prices are off 40-50% in some areas. The mood in Ireland is now turning nasty and there is a wide admittance that negative equity is going to be a reality for many for years to come. See this debate on the property market that was shown on Irish TV a couple of weeks ago - loads of young people who had bought in 2008, thinking they were getting a bargain and who now have 60k+ negative equity:

Late Late Show - scroll down to Property Debate, you can watch online from the UK

If that show doesn't put the wind up your sister, then remind her that Ireland's bankruptcy laws are draconian so if she just 'walks away' as some people are trying to do by going to Australia, the banks can pursue the debt and take a lien on your income for 12 long years. The Irish housing market is going to be deflating for years to come so if she's not prepared to take a hit now, then she'd better be prepared for the reality of just paying the mortgage for the entirety of its term, month-in, month-out for years to come.

[scottbeard]

I was speaking to my Sister and she wants to sell her house if she can, BUT she will only sell for what the house is worth to her

If she likes the house and can afford it, she should keep it. If she doesn't like it and/or can't afford it she should sell it at whatever the market price currently is.

Anything else is treating the house like a financial investment, which is not why it was bought and not why it should be kept.

That's the line of logic i would use.

[newly registered voter]

Why are you so keep for her to sell when you know that given a year or two she may get what she wants? Are you trying to help - or has she got a big house and you haven't?

Yes. You are dead right. It is obvious to me now that I can't stand my sister's success.....

[Cinnamon]

So your mission HPC people, if you care to accept it. Formulate an argument in VERY simple language that will convince my darling sister to cut her losses now.

Sit her down to make a spreadsheet that calculates a number of different scenarios that are likely to happen over the next 20 years (or so). With house, without house (savings? investments?), with high interest rates, with low ones, with job, without job, (how long can she survive jobless? What happens if she is ill?) and so on. Also, can she take a pay cut? What if taxes go up 10% (as is very likely?) And so on. Also run the 'claim the dole' option, often that introduces instant sobering up to reality -- a lot of people think mistakenly they are rich because on paper they seem to handle huge sums, but when you whittle it down to what is left... often it's not much more than the dole really.

Also, get across the point that life may seem long, but it's shorter than you think when you make the calculation of how few days you have to generate the extra money you will need in your dotage.

Good luck!

[General Melchett]

I hope you are not trying to say the Irish market may be back to normal in one or two years because if you are.

you are out of your mind..

I dont know... give it two years and it might be back to normal (ie. what it was like in, say, 1997). No way could the last 10 years of the Irish (or UK) property market be termed 'normal'.

(And despite my Essex address, I do know a little of what I speak).

[New Tarbuck]

>Yes. You are dead right. It is obvious to me now that I can't stand my sister's success.

You seem keen that she get's rid immediately at what is a low point in the market or near enough - if it were my sister I'd be telling her not to bother right now till things pick up if she doesn't want a loss - the reason the market isn't diving is that people like your sister aren't compelled to sell, and don't want to take the houses off the market as they've paid for HPI packs that are valid only for as long as they're on the market - hence people leave the prices as they are. They aren't dreaming it's just a cheaper alternative to relisting when things pick up a bit.

[Accidental STR]

I haven't tried it myself but i understand that Property-Bee works with daft.ie which seems to be the Irish equivalent of Rightmove. This would give your sister a look at properties in her area, how long they have been for sale and what price drops there have been. It might give her a chance to look at things more objectively.

[newly registered voter]

You seem keen that she get's rid immediately at what is a low point in the market or near enough -

You are braver than me. Are you calling the bottom of the Irish property Market as May 2009.

I will take a 10 pound bet on that one, thanks.

I think there is a long way down from here. Although she will lose the Magical Ponzi Money that existed in her head and the heads of the auctioneers that valued the place in 2006. She still probably has some chance to walk away with a bit of equity in the place today, as she bought her first home in the 1990´s. In 6 months time I am not so sure that equity will still exist.

With a little bit of luck she may leave this place in 2009 with a deposit for a future place. She will have the flexibility to look around and not be sucked into a horrible cycle of crippling bills in a place she doesn´t really need to stay in.

[New Tarbuck]

>she will lose the Magical Ponzi Money that existed in her head

It may be all money for old rope - but you know the idiots haven't gone away.. I suppose the interesting thing is that on the whole people have indeed managed to keep up payments on these crazy mortgages - so there's always room for things to go doo-lally all over again..

If it was your own house - being 100% honest - you wouldn't sell right now if you didn't have to.. so why tell someone in your family that they 'must' sell immediately - seems strange.. can't help thinking you feel they might make money you don't think is ethical?

[newly registered voter]

>she will lose the Magical Ponzi Money that existed in her head

It may be all money for old rope - but you know the idiots haven't gone away.. I suppose the interesting thing is that on the whole people have indeed managed to keep up payments on these crazy mortgages - so there's always room for things to go doo-lally all over again..

If it was your own house - being 100% honest - you wouldn't sell right now if you didn't have to.. so why tell someone in your family that they 'must' sell immediately - seems strange.. can't help thinking you feel they might make money you don't think is ethical?

I shall give you an example of what I would do with my own house.

I didn´t have to sell the apartment I owned in Amsterdam back in 2007 but hey I thought to myself. This whole market is going to go to hell soon so although I had the place on the market for 9 months waiting for another idiot to pay me what I believed my house was worth, I eventually changed my tune. I fired my delusional EA. Hired a new one with a very strongly worded specific instructions to price the Apartment at a realistic price (they advised 10% less than the other EA). I told them that I thought the other EA was an idiot and that I didn´t want them to humour me just to get the house onto their books.

I had a sale agreed in 3 weeks which in the Netherlands is a stronger committment from the buyer than an English sale agreed (the buyer would be fined a 10% deposit if they fail to complete the contract).

I came out of that deal probably with some spare change after owning for 4 years. So I am not bitter.

As for her making money I don´t think is ethical.......ehhhm Hellooooooooooooooooooooooooo..............prices are falling. If she can find an idiot quick enough to give her a good price on the place I will be f*cking ecstatic. I she breaks even and can´t pay me back, at least I will get some closure. I can move on and delete the loan from my private Balance Sheet .(yes, very nerdy but hey at least I will have some warning when my money is running out !)

Are you sure you are not a closet bull...

[New Tarbuck]

>I didn´t have to sell the apartment I owned in Amsterdam back in 2007

You sold in 2007 in the boom - a great time to get sold so you wouldn't have to try and sell now.

So why tell someone that right NOW is the time to sell whatever it costs? Plain DUFF advice!

[heather5]

For what it's worth - I go with Kara Gee's questions initially.

Plus you need to stop panicing - things will change - how much so - we don't know, that's the gamble - but many out there are saying sit tight for 5 years - and things will then start changing - some even saying that 100% loans will be back - but hey, I think they are on a different planet.

Can you afford to sit and wait that long whilst things sort themselves out?

Is your sister so irresponsible that she'll lose it before that time?

Is she someone who is prepared to work 2 jobs and get the money in?

If not, can you do a deal on the property so that you are responsible for the percentage you put in - and pay your mortgage equivalent (deducting what you've already put in) and then get it in writing that you will get x amount when it's sold.

Please note that with siblings these things MUST BE IN WRITING.

I stress it because we have a family scenario too - nothing in writing - all a family agreement - so no recourse for action and now families divided beyond all measures for reasons I can't even get to understand despite trying to be the negotiator as it's all to do with sibling rivalry when 5 years of age - and financial reality seems to be out the window although they are both in their 40s!!!

One was a BTL - on the up and up -was approached by sibling2 not on the up and up - to get a slice of the cake. So sibling1 on the up and up let in sibling2 on the down and down in by buying him 3 properties with a small nest egg - and agreed to manage them for free for x amount of years.

Sibling2 got loads of money back for very little effort - over-paying mortgage for what was being received as interest rates had gone down and he had been advised by S1 to do a tracker.

S1 proposed a do-er-upper - in good area for rental purposes but said need x amount spending to get it up to scratch (does it all the time in his business) - S2 - since getting good returns said was in it for long term - at least 15 years - so do it but gave limited sum to do up.

S1 discovered problems with the structure - and so spent £20k of his own money to get it to the point S2 came in - now S2 says - I'm not paying anymore - because it's not been rented out and I've lost a couple of thousand - so sell it and I'm not renting it or paying any more towards it - you absorb the costs - S1 had to buyout S2 - and is hanging on to it for the next 20 years - as it will recoup the money - but the relationship has divided the family such that it will never be the same again.

By the way S1 - because I'm in my late 40s, female and single - and have never earnt enough (having worked for charities all my life and now the Council) - wanted to help me on the property ladder a number of years ago before all this happened - but I said no - I knew that the property market would pan out this way - because I stumbled on HPC in early 2000 and I knew I could never pay the money back when I got out the excel spreadsheet and worked the figures.

Don't ever get into property issues with siblings - or families as a whole - those who succeed are really rare!!!!!!!

When the relationship gets into trouble for these reasons - they don't recover - and now I'm discovering that the kids of the next generation are being told stuff about why things have failed according to their parents - and those relationships are being damaged and the kids in that family generation are forming opinions to their peers based on this.

Not a good way to go.

Personally - you buy in - and sit tight for the next 5 - 10 years. Then you get your money but by then - she'll have sold and moved on at a loss or profit depending on her partner - you just need to decide if you think family is worth it.

[newly registered voter]

For what it's worth - I go with Kara Gee's questions initially.

agreed on that one

Can you afford to sit and wait that long whilst things sort themselves out?

Yep. My sister inspired me to take a few years as an Expat. I did well.

Is your sister so irresponsible that she'll lose it before that time?[

b]I don´t think recessions discriminate between the good, the bad and the irresponsible. Anyone can lose their job.[/b]

Is she someone who is prepared to work 2 jobs and get the money in?

Yes. She already is doing some extra hours at work.

Please note that with siblings these things MUST BE IN WRITING.[/b]that you will get x amount when it's sold.

Being the nerd I am. We agreed a contract at the time, only problem is the deadline for repayment has come and gone, that was the end of 2008.

I stress it because we have a family scenario too - nothing in writing - all a family agreement - so no recourse for action and now families divided beyond all measures for reasons I can't even get to understand despite trying to be the negotiator

- but the relationship has divided the family such that it will never be the same again.

Luckily our parents shared their experiences with us. Where a similar sibling rivalry to yours led to a 20 YEARS + argument over money. They taught us not to get too caught up in money and enjoy life a bit...which is what we do

Don't ever get into property issues with siblings - or families as a whole - those who succeed are really rare!!!!!!!

Not a good way to go.

I couldn´t agree more. N

Personally - you buy in - and sit tight for the next 5 - 10 years. Then you get your money but by then - she'll have sold and moved on at a loss or profit depending on her partner - you just need to decide if you think family is worth it.

Thanks for your input and to all the others. There are enough ideas on here for me to have a clear and honest discussion with her. I am not panicking, because in a wierd sort of Kharma, anything I am losing on this side of my finances I am gaining by waiting and not buying a place until further falls have happened in this Crash.

[New Tarbuck]

Guardian:

'...Forsythe dead within Months'

[MOP]

Guardian:

'...Forsythe dead within Months'

Oh FFS.