BelfastVI Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Front page news on today's Newsletter http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/business/houses-at-2003-prices-1-5179559 One of the most prominent 'top callers' (every quarter from 2004) has now said 'Mr Davis agrees that prices may now rise slightly'. Now I am starting to worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 A record breaking bubble, followed by a record breaking crash. I wonder what would happen to house prices if it were not for the record low BoE interest rates and unpresedented money printing. Are the current BoE interest rates, money printing and government schemes giving artificial economic support to artificially high house prices? What would happen to house prices if the BoE stopped printing money, interest rates returned to their long term average and the government was not gifting people their deposits? In my opinion the financial crisis is not over. And the housing market will not 'recover' until the financial crisis is over. (Note: housing market recovery = house price bubble ) There are no mortgages available out there at 0.5% and the record low BOE base rate broke ranks with new mortgages a long time ago. A lucky few were on life time trackers of 1/2 % above Base rate and good luck to them. I wasnt brave enough at the time and fixed mine. We dont have artificially high prices in NI any more. London is a different discussion and one that concerns me. London didnt have a crash and has continued to rise. The money printing went into stocks and shares as the FTSE etc will show you. what would happen to London prices if the foreign purchasers go somewhere else. Now that is the real question. I, like I am sure all here were shocked to see the government lifting the limit on the Help to buy scheme to £650k. This was obviously aimed at keeping the London market going. However I have recently read that over 50% of all sales last year were to overseas purchasers, which I'm sure we all expected. However, they defined oversees purchasers as those who were not buying with a UK mortgage. Therefore the purchaser was bringing onshore cash to purchase (perhaps a safe haven for money from the middle east). I am starting to wonder does the UK government now view this as a form of exporting. I have no idea what half of the london sales market would equate to but it may well be more than some of our traditional export classes. I may of course we wrong on this but I will put it out there. You say the housing market will not recover until the financial crisis is over. Others might just say the financial crisis will not recover until the housing market recovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 One of the most prominent 'top callers' (every quarter from 2004) has now said 'Mr Davis agrees that prices may now rise slightly'. Now I am starting to worry. Think JD didn't realise the executive has no plans to implement any of the new schemes here. I can see them having the desired effect in England and raising prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 More from the NL. Welcome piece of local analysis all round. Lessons to be learned from the rubble of the housing collapse http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/lessons-to-be-learned-from-the-rubble-of-the-housing-collapse-1-5180008 The house price crash in Northern Ireland has been so sudden and so severe that its full scale is only now becoming apparent. The cost of buying a home rose steadily in the years after the 1994 IRA ceasefire, and continued to rise relentlessly after the 1998 Belfast Agreement. In the first years of this century, property prices continued to rise and rise. This was widely welcomed as a sign of a newly healthy economy after the bleak years of the Troubles. It was as if high home values were an endorsement of normality in Ulster. Booming prices were also welcomed because a large section of society found that their main home had made them asset rich, and was able to dream of it funding a comfortable retirement. But there was a downside to the boom, which was little noticed at the time. Higher prices doomed the younger generations to vast mortgages, often to be paid off over 40 years (or, in the case of interest-only loans, never at all). Now, with prices having collapsed, some homeowners are enslaved to decades of debt amounting to much more than the value of their home. Others have already lost their homes to repossession. The News Letter reveals today that house prices have fallen back ten years when adjusted for inflation, to 2003 levels. There is a key lesson to be gleaned from this extraordinary boom and bust: while it is understandable that people see their home as an investment, grossly over-valued house prices are disastrous for society at large. They lead to a huge generational wealth gap, as is alarmingly apparent in London (where prices have not corrected). For all the heartbreak caused by the Ulster housing collapse, there is at least one welcome consequence. 
Many more young people in their 20s can now hope to own their own home, without needing parental help to buy, which is a reasonable goal for any person in a stable society. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 NI investors settle Italian holiday home lawsuit http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22912450 Sixty-six investors from Northern Ireland have settled a £5m lawsuit brought over Italian holiday home purchases in Calabria, southern Italy. They are due to receive undisclosed damages in a resolution of their claims against a law firm involved in the sales process. They paid 50% deposits ranging from £30,000 to £150,000 for apartments at the Jewel of the Sea development. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 (edited) One of the most prominent 'top callers' (every quarter from 2004) has now said 'Mr Davis agrees that prices may now rise slightly'. Now I am starting to worry. What are you waiting for? Isn't 50-60% off enough for you??? Listen to JDs site re Nolan and that report. Nolan 11th Clearly stated is it may not be THEE bottom but so what. If a property was £500k and 6 months ago was £250k why on Earth woukd you not buy it???????? What stopped HPCers from NI buying? Ok rents have also plummeted but still. Edited June 14, 2013 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 The bookmarked properties I have been watching have certainly not been dropping 50 -60%. From all the indexes it seems that flats and terraces and small semis are dropping 50% alright but the detached houses in the middle and upper end are still holding out. New houses coming on the market are still above 2005 prices - some by a big margin. I'll wait till I see personal affordability and value for money before I take a big step financially. I can rent cheaply so why jump in before I am ready? I was told last week of a previously £650k property near QUB that was asking £300k and went for £350k. Quite right too. Not a flat or downmarket. Agree though that generally smaller fell more than larger. But there always exceptions. Well, you guys are in danger of missing a great opportunity to buy NOW and sell in 2015 after a 20% rise. >50% probability for NI. Not South East BTW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 I think I'll have to pass too JD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 I was told last week of a previously £650k property near QUB that was asking £300k and went for £350k. Quite right too. Not a flat or downmarket. Agree though that generally smaller fell more than larger. But there always exceptions. Well, you guys are in danger of missing a great opportunity to buy NOW and sell in 2015 after a 20% rise. >50% probability for NI. Not South East BTW. Estate Agents tell us the average selling price is £130k plus. Irrespective of 50 or 60% drops from an artificial, overpriced, debt fuelled, speculator driven, bank lending madness peak in 2007 (which all EA's now say they knew was mad but didn't mostly squeak at the time) - £130k is unsustainable given the average wage here (even with 2 earners - if lucky enough, emergency low interest rates and Govt intervention in terms of co-ownership, SMI, instruction to banks not to reposess and forbear and HB. The EA selling average needs to be closer to £100k. All the stops have been pulled to get us this far - QE/rates - there are very few other policy levers left - Help to buy etc probably won't come here. Nama have been told - "no firesale". Politicians are afraid to raise interest rates by a quarter point as it would be "devastating" Economic risks are still to the downside in this part of the world which relies heavily on the public sector, grants & subvention and have given ourselves 10 yrs to remove "peace walls". Invest NI tout low wages as a positive - we can do call centres cheaper than China and India - until some other "low wage" country emerges and undercuts us. Many young people have particularly bleak prospects. Yes, there may be outliers and as a speculator you may get lucky and you'll certainly be better off dipping in now than 6 yrs ago but there's at least 35% of homeowners in negative equity who couldn't or wouldn't sell at current market rate if they had to or wanted to (either rent and go back to parents or wait for reposession). Many others have been stung and everyone now knows what is happening - even the mainstream media, EAs and surveyors - so confidence and sentiment will be a long time coming nevermind the actual ability to buy at today's prices or +20% for that matter. The whole thing needs a good flushing out and this hasn't happened thoroughly yet. Getting back to normality will be no bad thing. If houseprices rise 20% in NI in the next yr and a half, all things being equal, I'll sign off and join mumsnet . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 If it happens you'll see my username there too shoto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 If it happens you'll see my username there too shoto. Hugzzzzzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Latest Northern Ireland Housing Bulletin published Good use made of RPPI - some interesting graphs & maps (regional new house price sales). NB - at least 6 months out of date (except RPPI data) http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/press-feed/latest-northern-ireland-housing-bulletin-published-29342205.html The total number of new dwelling starts was 1,403, an increase of 49% on the same period in 2011. The total number of new dwelling completions was 2,394, an increase of 64% on the same period in 2011. In the first quarter of 2013 the Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index stands at 87. Between Quarter 4 (October - December) 2012 and Quarter 1 (January - March) 2013 residential property prices fell by 1%. For the first quarter of 2013, the standardised residential property price is 6% lower than the same quarter in 2012 and 13% lower than in the first quarter of 2005. http://www.dsdni.gov.uk/index/stats_and_research/stats-publications/stats-housing-publications/housing_bulletins/ni_housing_bulletin_october_-_december_2012_.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/house-prices-expected-to-stabilise-29334402.html Once again the bottom pickers have picked another bottom for the housing market in Northern Ireland Well time will tell if they are right this time. Comments worth a second look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Worth a look https://en-gb.facebook.com/pages/Northern-ireland-house-prices/130104797162113 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 (edited) Nostalgia - and why 2007 (and 2005 for that matter) should not be used as a baseline for measuring price falls against and using for any significant purpose - nevermind property investment or speculation and asserting stability, affordability, value or bottom. Amazing (and disastrous) times nonetheless - an absolute car crash - let's remind ourselves........ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Northern_Ireland In April 2007 a Halifax survey found Northern Ireland's average house price to one of the highest in the UK, behind London, the South East and the South West. It also found Northern Ireland to have all of the top ten property "hot spots", with the Craigavon and Newtownards areas increasing by 55%. NI dominates housing hotspot list http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6583393.stm Some nice sidebar archive also The price of an average house in Craigavon, County Armagh, leapt by more than £65,000 in the space of a year, according to Halifax. It said average house prices in the town went up from £118,551 to £183,795. The survey found the top 10 UK property hotspots in the first quarter of 2007 are in Northern Ireland. Halifax said the average value of property in NI went through the £200,000 barrier for the first time between January and the end of March. Meanwhile, Professor Stanley McGreal, one of the authors of the University of Ulster's quarterly report on housing trends, predicts less significant growth this year. "We were absolutely surprised with the rate of increase recorded for last year," he said. "Our prediction for 2007 is certainly to see a slower market, probably coming down to around maybe 15% to 17% increase over 2007, which is still, of course, high, historically." NI house prices top UK for speed http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6546955.stm Northern Ireland house prices rose faster last month than anywhere else in the United Kingdom, according to a new survey. Prices rose at their fastest pace since last June, a Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors survey states. The survey, carried out with the Ulster Bank, showed price growth as more than 8% last month. Political progress and the feel good factor of economic strength will maintain that growth, the report said. About 96% of surveyors reported increases during March - 75% reported price rises of at least 5% and a third of surveyors reported growth of more than 8%. The news may be good for investors but could prove disastrous for first-time buyers. NI house prices rising by a third http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6207868.stm House prices in Northern Ireland are rising by almost a third every year, according to the latest values survey. The cost of houses in some areas has increased by more than 65% in the past 12 months. The Mid & South Down markets performed strongly increasing the average home price over the year to £207,506, reflecting an unprecedented annual increase of 45%. "Exorbitant house prices and some mortgage lenders prepared to offer up to 5.2 times the combined income of the house buyers, compared to 2.1 10 years ago" will lead to financial crises for many young families" Patsy McGlone SDLP Edited June 16, 2013 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I think I'll have to pass too JD. 1. I am Killer Bunny. 2. Why will you pass? Why did you not buy after in 50% fall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 What are you waiting for? Isn't 50-60% off enough for you??? Listen to JDs site re Nolan and that report. Nolan 11th Clearly stated is it may not be THEE bottom but so what. If a property was £500k and 6 months ago was £250k why on Earth woukd you not buy it???????? What stopped HPCers from NI buying? Ok rents have also plummeted but still. How are NI house-prices going to react when reflation on the mainland begins to fail? That's my main thought. NI may have seen 50% off peak transaction prices (thus general market values), but wouldn't it be 'HPC with a Vengeance' in NI, if London and SE began to notably soften? Would NI not be affected, if we see softening, or even beginning of a crash on the mainland? Which so many of us are holding out for. Unless Help-To-Buy takes for a while, but years of reflation is stuttering now. Co-op in a mess. So many triggers to including USA treasury yields on concern the FED may slow QE measures, not only affecting US, but many other nations. Things getting hot in China, and Abe upsetting markets in Japan. £350,000 is still a lot of money. I was told last week of a previously £650k property near QUB that was asking £300k and went for £350k. Quite right too.Not a flat or downmarket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 1. I am Killer Bunny. 2. Why will you pass? Why did you not buy after in 50% fall? 1. Average salaries = £18.5k 2:Annual subvention = £10 billion. 3: 33% public sector employment. 4. 30% economically inactive. 5. 5K properties advertised for sale in 2007, now over 25K. 6.Interest rates at 300 year low. 7. Need I go on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Posted elsewhere by bobthebear. How the government fiddled house prices http://moneyweek.com/how-the-government-has-fiddled-the-housing-market/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Money%2BMorning#respond The idea that the UK housing market should in any way be driven by market forces was abandoned long ago — anyone who has bought a house in the last five years, or indeed who is paying a mortgage, has already in effect been helped to buy. If anyone other than the government manipulated a market to this extent, it would be illegal. And anyone scammed into buying a house at today’s prices — and in particular a fast-depreciating new build with a locked-in mortgage lender — would one day be able to sue for hundreds of thousands of pounds. They’d probably want to sue in about five years — once they had started paying ‘loan fees’ linked to retail price index (RPI) inflation on the bit of the mortgage the government guaranteed. Also standing in the queue for compensation would be the many thousands who, regardless of the endless help offered, have stayed locked out of the housing market thanks to stupidly high state-manipulated prices. But because it is the government messing with the market, it doesn’t fall into the same camp as, say, Libor or oil-price fiddling. And all those people stuck and soon-to-be stuck with unnecessary debt have no comeback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Enniskillen bomb charity is wound up due to pensions liability http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/enniskillen-bomb-charity-is-wound-up-due-to-pensions-liability-29374818.html In March 2011 the Trust's liability was assessed as £98,000 - causing no alarm because it owned its offices at Malone Avenue in south Belfast. Purchased for £215,000 in 2000, the property's value soared before the housing crash brought its current estimated worth back down to £180-190,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 We have professionals – now let's look after others http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/opinion/editor-viewpoint/we-have-professionals-now-lets-look-after-others-29372755.html Proof, if needed, that we're still far from out of economic trouble came this week from Davy, the Dublin and Belfast-based stock broking and wealth management firm. It launched its overview of the Northern Ireland economy yesterday and it included lots of insightful commentary, not least because it was able to have a pop at the institutions who generally present these kinds of things: the banks. One of the biggest sticking points Davy Ireland believes is holding back the Northern Ireland economy is the lack of transparency when it comes to debts against property and also around bank lending. It points out that without knowing where we stand it's very difficult to try and predict where we're going to. A bit like trying to read a map but not having any landmarks (or GPS) to find your location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Enniskillen bomb charity is wound up due to pensions liability http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/enniskillen-bomb-charity-is-wound-up-due-to-pensions-liability-29374818.html In March 2011 the Trust's liability was assessed as £98,000 - causing no alarm because it owned its offices at Malone Avenue in south Belfast. Purchased for £215,000 in 2000, the property's value soared before the housing crash brought its current estimated worth back down to £180-190,000. And this is the building "worth" 180k. They paid 215k in 2000. WTF. I'd love to know who they bought the place off and their relationship to the charity. http://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/PNC647191/97-Malone-Avenue/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Anyone read the article on Clanmill Housing Association. Leveraging up on debt at 4.5% to build houses and rent these back to the government through housing benefit payments. The snake eats its tail. This small country is seriously f***ed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Anyone read the article on Clanmill Housing Association. Leveraging up on debt at 4.5% to build houses and rent these back to the government through housing benefit payments. The snake eats its tail. This small country is seriously f***ed. Funds windfall boost for construction and social housing http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/funds-windfall-boost-for-construction-and-social-housing-29372754.html Now Clanmil has teamed up with The Housing Finance Corporation (THFC), an independent, not-for-profit organisation that makes loans to regulated housing associations, that provide affordable housing throughout the UK. THFC is providing a £17m loan to help Clanmil access some £14m in grant funding from the Department for Social Development. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Interest rates cannot go up now because so many young homeowners face mortgage timebomb, Bank of England warns http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2348788/Bank-England-Homeowners-30s-40s-owe-mortgage-rates-rise.html The eye-watering mortgage debts of homeowners in their 30s and 40s means that the Bank of England cannot raise interest rates without pushing millions of people into an 'unsustainable' position, Sir Mervyn King has warned. It creates the prospect that these homeowners are now too big to fail, meaning that monetary policy cannot correct to a normal level without squeezing mortgage borrowers to an extent that would bring about a new downturn. The slack given to mortgage borrowers has meant others are worse off. Savers have suffered because interest on deposits have crashed to has levels below the rate of inflation. The Bank is unable to combat above target inflation by raising borrowing costs and anyone saving to buy a house is squeezed by low rates of returns and ever-rising house prices that have been kept higher than they otherwise would have been. Sir Mervyn, speaking to the Treasury Select Committee, said that the high levels of indebtedness among 30 and 40-year-old homeowners was a symptom of the house price gains made by the older baby-boom generation. He said the baby-boomers had benefited from a steady rise in house prices, but this had forced their children to borrow beyond their means to get on the property ladder. He said: ‘The idea we are about to return to normal levels of interest rates is premature. One of the reasons we are not about to return is because so many households have such a high level of household debt. ‘If there are changes around the world that lead interest rates to go up, then some of those households will have debt that won’t look so attractive given the new level of house prices.’ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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