Media articles NORTHERN IRELAND Hpc Related

[Belfast Boy]

https://twitter.com/hashtag/AskCoOwn?src=hashtag_click

People desperate to catch a falling knife.

[2buyornot2buy]

25 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/AskCoOwn?src=hashtag_click

People desperate to catch a falling knife.

"Renting is dead money" is a cultural thing. People here are happy to make bad decisions because of this mantra. I agree, sometimes renting doesn't make sense but sometimes I.e. when rents are falling and prices are high and perhaps fall significantly. 

Coownership is for those who can't save a deposit. Funded by Barclays and BOI I believe. A way to get past the sensible lending requirements. 

Worth remembering they (coownership) are responsible for 5% of transactions. That's a massive number. 

[Belfast Boy]

20 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Coownership is for those who can't save a deposit. Funded by Barclays and BOI I believe. A way to get past the sensible lending requirements prey on the young and the stupid.

I have corrected that for you. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[Belfast Boy]

Co-ownership is half owned, half rented - right? Is that something else that is going to need a bailout in the near future?

[2buyornot2buy]

6 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

Co-ownership is half owned, half rented - right? Is that something else that is going to need a bailout in the near future?

It's choose your percentage model. 

Funded by the commercial banks and as a "housing association" through a grant. They'll not need a bailout.

[Belfast Boy]

Sorry if this is a repost.

There is some interesting information in this report from Feb 2018 -

https://www.consumercouncil.org.uk/sites/default/files/2018-08/Research Report - Assessment of NI Mortgage Market.pdf

 

"Given the high levels of negative equity and arrears it is not surprising that NI continues to have the highest repossession rates in the UK"

"Of the 12 UK regions assessed, NI has the: 

- Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage who switched to interest only mortgages during the term of their mortgage (most likely due to capital repayments becoming unaffordable); 

- Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage in mortgage arrears;

- Highest number of home owners in negative equity; and

- Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage considered to be ‘mortgage prisoners’."

 

… all of that that won't be good post-lockdown. It's likely to get much worse as unemployment rises.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[Belfast Boy]

10 hours ago, Belfast Boy said:

"- Highest proportion of home owners with a mortgage who switched to interest only mortgages during the term of their mortgage (most likely due to capital repayments becoming unaffordable)"

I was surprised - with record low interest rates - that people needed to do this. Maybe they are dreaming that the market will recover back to credit bubble levels. No chance of that happening now. I'm sure the banks know these people will be repossessed in the future. These people would have been better handing back the keys and refusing to pay. 

Then I read about the 'mortgage prisoners'. Banks are not giving them low rates because they don't meet new lending criteria. I only discovered recently that they are doing this to my sister and her husband! They are being forced to pay over 6% on their mortgage! That makes my blood boil. ?

That could have been me. I came so close to having a jumbo self-cert (liar loan) mortgage. I was just following the banks "advice".  

Edited May 4, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[2buyornot2buy]

20 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

I was surprised - with record low interest rates - that people needed to do this. Maybe they are dreaming that the market will recover back to credit bubble levels. No chance of that happening now. I'm sure the banks know these people will be repossessed in the future. These people would have been better handing back the keys and refusing to pay. 

Then I read about the 'mortgage prisoners'. Banks are not giving them low rates because they don't meet new lending criteria. I only discovered recently that they are doing this to my sister and her husband! They being forced to pay over 6% on their mortgage! That makes my blood boil. ?

That could have been me. I came so close to having a jumbo self-cert (liar loan) mortgage. I was just following the banks "advice".  

I've encountered people in exactly this situation. Interest only but massive negative equity. They are basically holding out. Don't or can't realise the loss so they are holding out indefinitely for a rise. Not prepared to overpay and take a lifestyle hit when they think in a few years it'll be better. Of course a few years could actually be 25. 

[getdoon_weebobby]

Hi All ,

Back after a good few years away.

Think NI housing market now has some big problems , but the problems remain on hold for now. Governments are offering vrious levels of support for Covid-19 (repayment hiolidays etc) so whether that helps cushion the problems?

What ever happened to Helen Carson ??!! LOL

Getdoon_Weebobby 

[Belfast Boy]

41 minutes ago, getdoon_weebobby said:

Getdoon_Weebobby 

[pod]

4 hours ago, getdoon_weebobby said:

Hi All ,

Back after a good few years away.

 

Hello getdoon_weebobby.

I was away for a decade, thought I'd call back too.

 

[Belfast Boy]

"Two in five NI firms 'fear they will not reopen' amid coronavirus pandemic."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/ulsterbusiness/analysis/two-in-five-ni-firms-fear-they-will-not-reopen-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-39203031.html

 

 

http://www.irishnews.com/business/2020/05/13/news/two-in-five-small-firms-in-northern-ireland-may-never-open-again---fsb-1936117/

"TWO in five small businesses in Northern Ireland fear they will never open again while nearly half are considering redundancies as they struggle to pay bills, a survey has found."

Edited May 13, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[Belfast Boy]

"Northern Ireland business survey records biggest sales and output crash in 20 years."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-business-survey-records-biggest-sales-and-output-crash-in-20-years-39128586.html

"But the survey took place largely before Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a full UK-wide lockdown."

So the next one is going to be much, much worse.

[Belfast Boy]

"Coronavirus: Northern Ireland economic recovery to take years, says economist Esmond Birnie."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-northern-ireland-economic-recovery-to-take-years-says-economist-esmond-birnie-39204699.html

"The last recession in NI, the one which followed the banking crisis, was extremely protracted. According to the official measure of the volume of regional output, output peaked in Quarter 2 2007 and then declined all the way through to Quarter 2 2013."

We know house prices didn't stop falling until 2013. Chicken and egg scenario - which came first economic recovery or housing market recovery.

(Of course the answer is the Rooster  )

[2buyornot2buy]

2 hours ago, Belfast Boy said:

"Northern Ireland business survey records biggest sales and output crash in 20 years."

 

 

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-business-survey-records-biggest-sales-and-output-crash-in-20-years-39128586.html

"But the survey took place largely before Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a full UK-wide lockdown."

 

So the next one is going to be much, much worse.

Have to say I like Richard Ramsey. Brings a bit of realism to the debate. Going by his interviews and articles he sees price falls as inevitable. 

I find it strange that the bank economist sees falls as inevitable and the PP economist thinks they won't happen. 

[Belfast Boy]

3 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Have to say I like Richard Ramsey. Brings a bit of realism to the debate. Going by his interviews and articles he sees price falls as inevitable. 

I find it strange that the bank economist sees falls as inevitable and the PP economist thinks they won't happen. 

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair.

Estate Agents always give a positive public perception. However, they are going to have to tell the vendors the facts.

 

All of this information is coming out while NI is still in lockdown. And look at the Daily Mail articles about buyers demanding 20% reductions and lenders withdrawing offers. That's bound to happen here too.

This is the beginning of the start of the crash that will not show for several months.

 

[2buyornot2buy]

20 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair.

Estate Agents always give a positive public perception. However, they are going to have to tell the vendors the facts.

 

All of this information is coming out while NI is still in lockdown. And look at the Daily Mail articles about buyers demanding 20% reductions and lenders withdrawing offers. That's bound to happen here too.

This is the beginning of the start of the crash that will not show for several months.

 

I'd be interested to hear BVIs thoughts on the current situation. How are the banks reacting to developer borrowing? 

[Belfast Boy]

From last month...

"Northern Ireland property market: ‘No boom, therefore no crash’

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/ulsterbusiness/analysis/northern-ireland-property-market-no-boom-therefore-no-crash-

Estate agent says - "That's the difference. There hasn't been a property boom so there won't be a property crash."

Belfast Boy says - The difference this time will be higher unemployment, increased businesses bankruptcies , higher repossessions, lower bank lending. Under those circumstances, current house prices are unsustainable.

[2buyornot2buy]

20 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

From last month...

"Northern Ireland property market: ‘No boom, therefore no crash’

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/ulsterbusiness/analysis/northern-ireland-property-market-no-boom-therefore-no-crash-

Estate agent says - "That's the difference. There hasn't been a property boom so there won't be a property crash."

Belfast Boy says - The difference this time will be higher unemployment, increased businesses bankruptcies , higher repossessions, lower bank lending. Under those circumstances, current house prices are unsustainable.

They've gone very quiet recently. It's like the penny has finally starting to drop just how massive this is going to be. Every single indicator is pointing to a massive, never seen before recession. There will be no return to normal until a vaccine is available and distributed to the population. 

If 35% in 5 years isn't a boom I don't know what is. 

[Belfast Boy]

1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

They've gone very quiet recently. It's like the penny has finally starting to drop just how massive this is going to be. Every single indicator is pointing to a massive, never seen before recession. There will be no return to normal until a vaccine is available and distributed to the population. 

If 35% in 5 years isn't a boom I don't know what is. 

My calculations show it was a 44% increase in 7 years.

Boom or no boom - there is going to be a bust!

[2buyornot2buy]

1 hour ago, Belfast Boy said:

My calculations show it was a 44% increase in 7 years.

Boom or no boom - there is going to be a bust!

About 6.5% a year, 44% total while wage inflation over the same period was around 5% total. 

That's a boom IMO

Edited May 15, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy

[2buyornot2buy]

Interesting radio programme on Radio Ulster Inside Business. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2h1

PP economist talking about the housing market. States the housing market is the economy. I think he's about 29 so he's probably right in that his limited experience (at school during the crash) the housing market has been the economy. 

The interview is a bit over the place and contradictory in places but good insight into the VI mindset. Denial is definitely strong. "Redundancies will be massive but prices will be ok". 

 

 

[Belfast Boy]

5 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Interesting radio programme on Radio Ulster Inside Business. 

Sorry, that's not really what he said.

12m30sec - 17m20sec 

I though Jordan Buchannan from PropertyPal spoke clearly and was realistic. 

This makes total sense at 16:50 "The Job Retention Scheme is preventing mass unemployment... protecting jobs and incomes, which limits the extent of the price falls... it's what happens in the long run to business and the extent of that increase in unemployment."

I think he does realise what could happen.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[2buyornot2buy]

18 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

Sorry, that's not really what he said.

12m30sec - 17m20sec 

I though Jordan Buchannan from PropertyPal spoke clearly and was realistic. 

This makes total sense at 16:50 "The Job Retention Scheme is preventing mass unemployment... protecting jobs and incomes, which limits the extent of the price falls... it's what happens in the long run to business and the extent of that increase in employment."

I think he does realise what could happen.

Do you think its denial then? Expects a 5% drop but a quick recovery? Hoping for the best? 

[Belfast Boy]

44 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Do you think its denial then? Expects a 5% drop but a quick recovery? Hoping for the best? 

I'm sorry, you really need to listen to that again. 

He said that - in the short term - he expects low offers of 5% to 10% off. He then went on to say it's all about the labour market in the long term. He even mentioned possible unemployment of 20% to 25%. 

What I heard was all realistic. I didn't hear any of the usual BS we expect from some vested interests.

You know what I'm like - I was called the HPC attack dog.  Are you wanting my job? Maybe I've mellowed as I got older.  

Edited May 16, 2020 by Belfast Boy