2buyornot2buy Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Belfast Boy said: I'm sorry, you really need to listen to that again. He said that - in the short term - he expects low offers of 5% to 10% off. He then went on to say it's all about the labour market in the long term. He even mentioned possible unemployment of 20% to 25%. What I heard was all realistic. I didn't hear any of the usual BS we expect from some vested interests. You know what I'm like - I was called the HPC attack dog. Are you wanting my job? Maybe I've mellowed as I got older. I don't think we took the same out of the interview. I heard a lot of yes there will be redundancies but... even called an offer 5% off asking "punchy"... You got me looking at twitter BB. have a look at the Tedx Derry circles talk. 3-5% drops. Says NI houses are 20% "undervalued" compared to England. Wuhan prices in March were flat not falling. I own a house, I should be a bull by now. What is wrong with me. Edited May 16, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said: I don't think we took the same out of the interview. I heard a lot of yes there will be redundancies but... even called an offer 5% off asking "punchy"... You got me looking at twitter BB. have a look at the Tedx Derry circles talk. 3-5% drops. Says NI houses are 20% "undervalued" compared to England. Wuhan prices in March were flat not falling. I own a house, I should be a bull by now. What is wrong with me. This is the important bit - "The Job Retention Scheme is preventing mass unemployment... protecting jobs and incomes, which limits the extent of the price falls... it's what happens in the long run to business and the extent of that increase in unemployment." Yeah, as a homeowner, why are you here? Edited May 16, 2020 by Belfast Boy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said: Yeah, as a homeowner, why are you here? Because I'm also more importantly a parent. Sorry to get serious there BTW Edited May 16, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigooner Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 (edited) I’ve no real point to make on the interview, but it’s interesting to see how two people can hear the same thing and have different takes on it! Edited May 16, 2020 by nigooner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, nigooner said: I’ve no real point to make on the interview, but it’s interesting to see how two people can hear the same thing and have different takes on it! Very true. I've read some if the detailed from PP. I find it insanely "optimistic". I suppose I've listened to that interview with this in the back of my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 BBC radio - Stephen Nolan (I know, I know... I never listen to him... someone told me about it.) Interviewing BBC Economics and Business Editor John Campbell. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j75c 1h14m to 1h19:30sec 1h17:40sec The big picture is the overall state of the economy.... unemployment going up = less demand... banks reducing supply of credit = less demand... housing market prices likely to be on a downward trajectory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/uk-world/london-house-prices-increase-at-fastest-rate-since-2016-39220378.html "The March figures also show that average prices increased over the year in... Northern Ireland to £141,000 (3.8%)." Prices continue to rise on dwindling volumes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) Manufacturing NI have released some results from a survey of the sector. 215,000 manufacturers jobs in NI Contributes 20% of NI GVA Key points 75% have some staff on furlough 20% have all staff on furlough 66% have more 3 quarters of staff on furlough 38% of firm are not currently planning any redundancies >50% of firms are planning to make up to 1/3 of workforce redundant 12% of firms think they will close by the end of the year 33% think they will have to significantly downsize in 2020 Only 7% have seen an increase in turnover Edited June 2, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 A video discussing the property market... 11m to 12m30sec - the propertypal survey and how Covid-19 has affected peoples' housing requirements. Obviously people now want houses that are detached, have large gardens and good wifi. 28m to 31m40sec - house prices > unemployment > will have implications for the housing market. 36m45sec to 39m40sec - worst case scenario 15% decline in house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 39 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said: 36m45sec to 39m40sec - worst case scenario 15% decline in house prices. Wasn't it meant to be a 5% drop a couple months back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, JoeDavola said: Wasn't it meant to be a 5% drop a couple months back? He said 5%-7% over the next few months then goes on to discuss medium to long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Belfast Boy said: A video discussing the property market... 11m to 12m30sec - the propertypal survey and how Covid-19 has affected peoples' housing requirements. Obviously people now want houses that are detached, have large gardens and good wifi. 28m to 31m40sec - house prices > unemployment > will have implications for the housing market. 36m45sec to 39m40sec - worst case scenario 15% decline in house prices. Just listened. Time will tell I guess. For me it comes across as optimistic but then i won't know how optimistic until furlough changes. I'll be interested to see how the sentiment survey goes and if negative does it get spun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said: Just listened. Time will tell I guess. For me it comes across as optimistic but then i won't know how optimistic until furlough changes. I'll be interested to see how the sentiment survey goes and if negative does it get spun. It was optimistic. Studying our last HPC it appears that unemployment and house prices are linked. House prices in Northern Ireland stopped falling at the same time employment started rising. As I just said on the main forum - I don't think there is going to be anything average, or typical, about the next few years. If the survey indicates that people expect a large fall in house prices - it will be interesting to see if it is mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said: It was optimistic. Studying our last HPC it appears that unemployment and house prices are linked. House prices in Northern Ireland stopped falling at the same time employment started rising. As I just said on the main forum - I don't think there is going to be anything average, or typical, about the next few years. If the survey indicates that people expect a large fall in house prices - it will be interesting to see if it is mentioned. He mentioned he had a quick look at the survey results. Looked at the results on the number of bedrooms, garden, broadband, gym but didn't mention the results on price sentiment. It will certainly be interesting. In fairness, you could throw the surveymonkey results through excel in about a day so we should hear the results soon enough. I can understand if there was bias. PP is a very small company 20 odd employees. They will have taken an absolute hammering over the past few months. Edited June 6, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 More props for the NI housing market. Another £145 million thrown at co-ownership this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 More props for the NI housing market. Another £145 million thrown at co-ownership this morning. I'm buying in the first half of next year regardless. I'm more convinced than ever that they'll never let house prices fall, in £ terms anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 I'm buying in the first half of next year regardless. I'm more convinced than ever that they'll never let house prices fall, in £ terms anyway. You have to do what's best for you. I'm of the opinion prices will drop. Nows the time to sell not but. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 To be honest prices should fall but they are not, the only thing is whether the banks start to disagree with the currently high valuations or we see lots of defaults. At the moment people are able to take the mortgage holiday option so no defaults for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 You have to do what's best for you. I'm of the opinion prices will drop. Nows the time to sell not but. I hope you are right, for the sake of future generations. I've just completely lost faith in the housing market following any sort of logic whatsoever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 I hope you are right, for the sake of future generations. I've just completely lost faith in the housing market following any sort of logic whatsoever. The whole world is going to shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 The whole world is going to shit. Agreed. Really gets me down at times. And yet here we are with the economy crippled and every couple of weeks I see houses that seem up another 5K in Belfast. Never, never in a million years did I expect this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 The whole world is going to shit. Agreed. Really gets me down at times. And yet here we are with the economy crippled and every couple of weeks I see houses that seem up another 5K in Belfast. Never, never in a million years did I expect this. Was chatting to a person today forced to sell their holiday let apartment, hard to understand how prices are gone daft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canyon78 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 BBC News - House prices in NI keep rising despite pandemic https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54988857 Can't get my head round this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 BBC News - House prices in NI keep rising despite pandemic https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54988857 Can't get my head round this. It's easy when you try. The government are paying 80% of everyone not working wages. Universal credit would be a fraction of that. They are essentially printing money to pay their citizens. Throwing money about like confetti. We won't feel the effects until the money stops or the payback begins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canyon78 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 It's easy when you try. The government are paying 80% of everyone not working wages. Universal credit would be a fraction of that. They are essentially printing money to pay their citizens. Throwing money about like confetti. We won't feel the effects until the money stops or the payback begins. But why don’t people see that those effects could be bad and keep buying at ever inflated prices? I suppose I did the same before the last crash and bought near the top.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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