BearNecessities

So Buyers cant buy and sellers won't sell = stalemate Distressed sales is in my opinion the only way that we will see the drops that are craved and needed. Taxation may help but it's a slow process and I back New Labour to enter into more suicidal borrowing and stealth taxes rather than direct taxation. Otherwise falls of 0%-5% YOY will probably be the order of the day.

Dont worry i'll stick it all on my card

Perhaps you can get them in, if you really are debt free

Like most on here, I hope for this ridiculous asset bubble to correct itself, not least so I can buy my own property at a reasonable price. I initially thought that the process would be as follows (and this was looking good until July 2007) inflation > interest rate hike > HPC > recession > unemployment > perpetual HPC (a bit like 1990-1995) What I didnt account for was the credit crunch which has killed demand and availability of credit an thus slowed the economy in a way that hikes in IRs are no longer deemed necessary, indeed cutting to preserve growth is needed. All this I think will mean that we are in a house price standoff for a while because there are not enough distressed sellers really driving the market south. Prices will continue to drift south slowly until one of the main drivers (IRs or Unemployment) are at levels to really crash the market. Please do not be mistaken - I do think these factors will come - with recession will come unemployment and at some point the rate setters will have to stop chasing the economy down and tackle inflation. Perhaps 2008 will see housing market perform like a car with no oil before all the gaskets blow in 2009 Anyone else with an opinion on this?

Ha ha - lets have it next to Scotland Yard

better than that Uber bear - Jeff Randall

Should be a bobby dazzler with none other than Jeff Randall at the controls

Got my reply They said 'go easy on him, don't you know his wife ran off with another woman'

I sent an email to the BoE yesterday complaining about Blanchflower lobbying for interest rate cuts. I stated that the status of the bank's independence was brought into question and it's the integity of the MPC was being tarnished by what amount to press releases from members within. Everyone should write the same email

I think you are right - the tories were miles too late in criticising Labour on the economy - Vince Cable in his capacity as Lib Dems Treasury spokesman has been attacking Labour periodically since around 2003 to my knowledge. Not sure changing Osborne will do the trick - the tories are as commited to the casino economy and as addicted to house price inflation as much as anyone from Labour - more so if anything

Rent's in London are still in places rising due to lack of supply. Not sure about A3 (food) retail however as that is not my area. The Landlord would probably done whatever they could to keep BK as a tenant as they are a reasonable covenant compared to most in that sector. With BK franchises, the parent company underwrites the rent, so even if the business is run appallingly (as often the case with BK franchisees) the landlord will get the rent. So fair to assume that BK wanted out, or were demanding a rent so far below market that the landlord could not accept (remember rental level largely determines capital value) As a few of them went at the same time, I suspect it was a policy decision from BK and therefore the former. edit: purchase prices are indeed falling, however rents are rising or static - cause and effect - yields elongating

Not strictly fair to say 'greedy' landlord. Landlord would most likely be seeking a 'market' rent which is likely to be significantly higher than when the rent was last set (probably 5 years previously)

Several in Central London have closed in recent months. The only one I can think of still operating in the West End is Piccadilly Circus. Benjys also shut 90% of their outlets at the same time - dark days for junk food addicts like me

Ponden Mill went into administration in December - LL must have distrained before administration or agreed a forfeiture with the administrator (unlikely unless another tenant moves in)

It has occurred to me that the LR house prices figures are flawed As i understand it they only count houses that have been sold on the registry twice (or more) since 2000 and use the price registered to calculate HPI. Here is an example of how I believe the system is flawed House A Sold 2000 - £100K Sold 2007 - £200K Sold 2008 - £190K In 2007 the registration would have correctly registered growth of 10.4% per annum for 7 years and in 2008 a fall of 5% per annum between the 2nd and 3rd transaction. Now, next door is House B, exactly same spec etc. Sold 2000 - £100K Sold 2008 - £190K In 2008 the registration would still record average YOY HPI of around 9% which would contribute to the figures - it would have no way of knowing that the correct YOY figures was in fact -5%. Added to the fact that the LR figures take no account of value added improvements (Britains favourite hobby and worth about 3-4% to the YOY figures in my guestimation) ,how seriously should we be taking these figures?

Ponden Mill - not a name many will know (also branded as Coloroll and Design House) are going into administration tomorrow Not a big name - but still over 150 outlets in the UK That might be one of the ten

As the index is only compiled from data using properties that have been sold more than once since 2000, it is inevitable that improvements will have skewed the figures especially as houses that have been sold more than once in this period are statistically more likely to have been improved with a future resale in mind. The type of improvements I am talking about are ones that add extra square footage such as loft conversations and extentions (especially to the side of the property). These types of improvement may dramatically add value to a property (sometimes up to 100%). Granted they only affect the index when sold for the first time, however there must be many included each month given our favourite national pastime is doing up the house. This is pretty much a wet finger in the air calculation, however I suspect it may account for between 2%-4% of the YoY increase at any given time.

Have to agree that if Tories had attacked Labour over this anywhere near as effectively as the LibDems then we would be a lot nearer seeign heads roll.

No one knows for sure what the Gulf Stream is going to do. If it was to shutdown it may moderate the warming for North West Europe, but if you choose to believe the IPCC predictions, significant warming would still occur. If the warming was moderated in any way we would likely see millions of climate refugees trying to get in as their environment had become inhospital.

I think you will find that was media spin - although the Met Office did predict a warmer than average summer (the actual temps were in the average category) it was the likes of the Daily Express etc that ramped it up predicting 40C heatwaves.

It's actually almost impossible to get warm and dry in winter - the sun isn't powerful enough. We get mild winters when the weather is predominately maritime (i.e from the Atlantic) which also usually means dull, wet and windy. Cold winters occur when the weather is continental but these tends to be drier than average. There are exceptions 1946/47 and 1978/79 were both exceptionally cold and wetter than average (although most ppn fell as snow). I cannot recall a significantly mild winter where rainfall is below average

It's not thought at this moment that the coming winter will be particularly cold, although it will be cooler than the exceptionally mild and wet winter of 2006/7 and we need a lot more climate change before scraping ice of a car in mid November becomes a noteworthy event.

I shall try to get along - it will be well busy - any idea how we can identify each other?

The Woodstock on Oxford Street (between Oxford Circus and Bond Street stations - Central, Victoria, Bakerloo & Jubilee Lines) has an upstairs that could be booked - it only fits about 25 though.

On a Thusday at month end, that will be really busy - out on the street. I would suggest picking a pub away from the beaten track - Perhaps holborn or Bloomsbury and avoid that date whatever