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House Price Crash Forum

ChinaReader

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Everything posted by ChinaReader

  1. Interesting that the original comment included that they'd respond to an "external shock" - i.e. if the economy ties itself in knots internally, we aren't obliged to drop interest rates. But I guess the definition of external shock could be anything - oil, FX rates, wars, cold winds...
  2. In relation to disposable income? That's not a comparison I've heard before... Anyone else come across it before?
  3. If you want to shop in Europe, save in Euros. If your savings are an investment that you're happy to risk, play the currency markets. If your savings are there in case you need something in the UK, it's illogical to save in Euros - you're taking your safety net and incorporating risk into it.
  4. The warm welcome we've come to expect from the bulls! If your landlord has been in the game only a short time, there may be cause for concern, but if he owned the house since 2000 or thereabouts he'll only have paid a fair price anyway, so will survive a crash unscathed. You can check the land registry website (I think) to see when your house was last sold, and for what prirce, in case that will calm any (bull-scaretactic-induced) nerves you may have. Don't forget to post on the New Members' Thread as well. And welcome to the forum.
  5. Scrapping planning rules is deluded - they're there, in part, to prevent overloading the infrastructure. Tagging hundreds of thousands of houses onto the existing infrastructure that's decades old will not provide a good long-term solution. Build roads, sewers, utility supplies (gas, electricity, water), and (crazy idea I know) railways first, and then approve plots of land later. That's my drum and I'm banging it.
  6. Don't we get enough misconstrued sarcasm as it is? At least the one-word badge is a clue!
  7. You're right - a purely internal perspective with no idea of what's "normal" in other economies is a great idea.
  8. Agreed to a large extent. Who can change the minds of a few million people? Well, spin doctors and journalists, that's who. The power wielded by the "independent" press in the UK is appropriate in principle and abused in practice, imo.
  9. Come visit Shanghai. I'll take you round the shops and you can see people's attitude, and you can visit a few temples, pay to get in, and buy some souvenirs in the temple shop. Commercialism is 2-nil up at half time and it doesn't look like Budhism has a game plan for the second half. I'm not sure that'll make you happier, but of course it's your perogative to try. "Democracy is a system so wicked that it gives people the government they deserve." Blame the populace, not the government.
  10. You were just waiting for it weren't you?! But you know - let people have their fun. It's a massive 1% drop. Don't you realise that's the biggest drop since... LAST WEEK! I know - stunning isn't it! Breath into a paper bag TEIN - don't go hyperventilating on us now!
  11. I had a friend who finished his PhD in Mathematics, was visiting Mongolia, met a school and was invited to pop into the school (so the kids could practice English probably). On being asked what he did by the teenagers, he said he had just got his PhD in mathematics, expecting the response that you'd get from a classroom of teenagers in the UK.He got a round of genuine applause. He moved to the capital of Mongolia the following year. Not the lifestyle choice for everyone, but he went where his skills and hard work would be appreciated.
  12. This is the opposite of the game played by at least one seller I heard of on here (possibly in Ireland). Every time he got the asking price offer, he added more to the asking price, on the basis that if people would pay that much, maybe it was worth more. I can't remember if he made a mint or didn't sell in the end, but for those with the guts (and the cheek) to do it, some significant profit has probably been made.
  13. Suppose, just suppose, that house prices are cyclical - the evidence is pretty good for booms and crashes. If you watch the graphs carefully, you may be able to time the next one quite well. It may be 5-15 years from this one, but that gives you plenty of time to prepare for it. Never say never. I also wouldn't want to be in the middle of a divorce settlement in a crashing market for houses. It's the ultimate "have to sell" example.
  14. I've never really thought of haggling much on rent, but if you have a big enough property section in your back pocket you are in a strong position I suppose. Especially if you're ready to move in straight away, and even sweeten it by, for example, paying the deposit and first two month's rent immediately if your landlord looks a little stretched and meets your offer! But I've never been one for trying to stretch the landlord on rent - if you like the rent and they like you, they'll be just that little bit nicer when it comes to phone calls asking for something to be fixed / replaced! Maybe I'm a statistical anomaly, being used to having landlords on friendly terms!
  15. "although not seasonally adjusted" - interesting phrase And how have they published data for March when the month isn't over yet?
  16. Subprime in the UK could be 10-12% of total mortgages, but 58% of mortgages last year. Either number is pretty impressive though.
  17. It must be so easy doing valuations. "So, you'd pay 148k for it? Well, that's the current market value then isn't it. Next!"
  18. Go spank a monkey. Oh wait, that's so last year!... You witty little bull you.Edit to add: When a bear turns bull they buy a house, do some decorating, and don't post so much anymore I think. When a bull turns bear they join HPC to help explain the emperor has no clothes on. I don't think we'll run out of bears in the UK just now monkeyspanker. But some have always been bulls and will continue to be so.
  19. Thank you for posting this. It's always interesting to learn from the mistakes of others. Whether it prevents the same mistake in the UK though, I very much doubt. I mean, it's different in the UK - things are the other way up and all.
  20. You should buy better paint. It's like the nesting equivalent for blokes. And why the average bloke has more than one drill.
  21. I always liked your avatar. Let us know though when you actually complete on a sale and get some keys in your hand. A day's turnaround could be a mood swing, but when you put your mortgage where your mouth is, we'll know you're really gone! Hope the decorations go well, and see you on the flipside. Adieu.
  22. But, right and wrong notwithstanding, I'd like to query this alleged "link" between immigration and house prices. I mean, there's plenty of data and drawing of graphs linking house prices and interest rates and FTB income multiples, including consistent lead / lag times. But I haven't yet seen someone construct any mathematical link between immigration and house prices. So until we have something a bit more substantial than "I heard of a Polish guy who is on benefits and bought a house in Chelsea for 4 million, and that meant my mate couldn't buy it for 150k", I'll continue to believe the two aren't significantly linked. Sure, a few more shoppers on the market. But that's a minor factor compared to doubling the credit available to the 40 million people already drifting around in the country!
  23. I think I was using the US as a shining example of how not to do immigration - and how building fences doesn't work, and is hypocrisy. Ok, you weren't obvious enough for me... I'd have to guess it's the Yanks.
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