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simon2

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  1. Doesn't seem to be any real catalysts for further falls, in the near term. People can afford to hang on. Prices where I am looking have definitely come down from the peak of 1/2 years ago. I'd estimate at around 10%. The number of genuinely new properties coming on the market is quite low, seeing a lot of re-listings (new builds and also those which didn't sell a year ago). Modus operandi for quite a few houses seems to be just stick it on at 2018 price, let the price drift downwards, either it gets sold or the listing gets removed. There have been some good deals that I have seen, ie a 3-bed house sttc for £325k (a house down the road listed at £400k), also a 2-bed flat for £200k (flats in the same block listed at £275k). From the decor and chain free status it appears to be places where the owner had died, or moved into care homes and needed to sell. Hopefully the banks might restrict further lending - can't see them wanting more property assets considering in the medium to longer term a Labour government will get in at least once.
  2. Would be great if the BBC covered this. The real effect surely would be much worse, two (or maybe even one) year ago most properties would be going at asking price or very close to it. At the very least, I would expect the gap between asking/selling to be a bit bigger, perhaps more.
  3. Used to walk past this fairly regularly, house>flats conversions are real common on these streets. Someone I knew lived in a split-level one over the second and third floors and it was about as big as a house, very nice size inside unlike some of the newer flats. £800k for a 3-bed flat is pushing it, I'd imagine you could purchase a house nearby for that type of money, perhaps north of Uxbridge Road though.
  4. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-62141493.html An example of kite-flying to accepting reality. Sadly I can see this shifting.
  5. Lol. To be fair their attitude is nothing new, the same as loads of British people buying grossly overpriced flats as an 'investment'. Just that their views come later in the cycle but compared to HK prices I'd guess a house here seems like terrific value.
  6. Share price still sits massively above what we started the year at. I know because I bought this (and Taylor Wimpey) as a bit of a hedge, but sold out at 600 a few months later. Help to Buy will just be replaced by something else, I feel. We do need people to be crapping their pants, but they need to be sellers. I look at quite a few over-priced properties on Rightmove that haven't shifted for ages but a seller taking the step down will lead to new (recent) lows. In some cases there doesn't seem to be enough motivation to take such a cut and instead people want to wait it out in case either the market recovers or some idiot turns up who falls in love with it. In most cases the mortgage rate is lower than a rent, even if renting makes sense because of the chance of decreased valuation.
  7. Let's hope so. Although I am sure there will be some kind of opaque way around it. There needs to be a catalyst to start a bit of panic. At the moment in the South I can see prices on a rather benign decline, as sellers are happy to wait for long periods for someone to cough up an unrealistic asking price rather than reduce too far.
  8. Interested in opinions. Prior to the last one in 2008, I purchased in Greater London. At this time I felt the effects were not too large. There is a block of flats I use as a crude reference, a 2-bed, 2-bath was right on the limit of £250,000 back then (the stamp duty limit). This price dipped slightly by about 10%, but since 2010 has seen a constant increase. Almost in line with the rest of the area I think the peak was about £450,000 last year (although I saw some kite-flyers trying £500k). In the last year this figure is more like £425,000 and more recently some asking prices of £395,000. Conversely, some areas were priced very high. New properties in places like Leeds, Manchester but also in southern places like Maidstone/Canterbury fell heavily. Even today, prices for some properties are below their peak 10 years ago. So this time around I think it may be the other way around. Properties which may fall heavily are flats in London, especially that do not have Help to Buy, but even those that do. Following this are properties which don't have great transport connections. This would spread out towards the commuter belt and the lower end of properties there. In contrast I think nice family homes in good areas will be safer (because none are being built anymore). Many northern towns (and Southern ones) which were hit badly before may also not be that bad off. In a few suburbs (ie Nottingham) you can still pick up houses for well under £100k, not totally out of the reach of even a minimum wage earner with some deposit.
  9. 'As much as 10%' in London? That is massively disappointing. Really hoping that this is the spark for some of the starter properties/flats to decline c.30% over time and thus create a domino fall effect outwards on the next steps of the chain and outward into the regions.
  10. The obvious reaction is that selling prices will be bumped up to cover the tax. But surely it won't be brought in overnight? Which might see further downside pressure in the short term, as sellers want to complete by a certain date before being stung for the charge.
  11. Same thing happened to me. 3 months out, started being bombarded with calls and emails. Eventually just replied and said no thanks, happy to continue on periodic. Agency came back with some stuff like 'your landlord is not prepared to agree to a periodic'. Forwarded the landlord the email along with a link to their fees page (fees are less for a periodic than a contract). He said he had no contact at all with agency and was happy to go periodic. No further contact from the agency, there should be some rule against them telling lies.
  12. This is great news. I am hopeful that we will see worse news...buyers with families that need to move in school holidays ain't gonna buy now because of no time to complete so hopefully a bleak autumn/winter season sees more price cuts. The asking price indices also seem a little artificially inflated, where I look there are a decent amount of kite-flyers who have unrealistic prices and have stubbornly refused to budge. In real terms I think they are skewing the index much more than a few years back.
  13. Seem to remember in the past when the market was going up that for blocks of flats, a sale would provide a 'watermark'. So someone selling their flat at £300k, would see the next flat try £325k and use the previous sold price as some kind of guide. More recently I have noticed the reverse happening, that asking prices for certain blocks of flats are coming down. Some that have completed this year and have sold prices available show a discount to the 2018 prices, so we could be seeing a trend in action (if the sellers believe the market is declining, then getting equal to the last sold price is a good achievement). I am hoping for a moderate domino effect. In the areas I am looking I have found some sellers accept this market reality and price below the peak, but some ignore it totally and still price at peak (or above) which results in the flat sitting there for a long time after which it gets reduced to a more realistic price, or simply taken off the market. On rare occasions they do seem get a bite and go SSTC Interested in blocks of flats where they are almost identical, ie similar dimensions and not the obvious crash-tastic ones like Battersea.
  14. From my perspective there appears to be a bit of an impasse in the market, many things are not moving. In the areas where I am looking, the feeling that prices are slipping can almost be felt. A quick browse at the sold prices for some blocks of flats show that recent prices are lower than last year, and in some cases the year before, ie (https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-78807131.html) Many sellers seem to want to deny reality and put their properties on like nothing has happened. I am hopeful that once we get past this month (where it will be too late to move for the new school year) this puts even further downward pressure on things.
  15. Hopefully the momentum continues, downward of course. From my own perspective (potential buyer, but not at these prices) there are some welcome things happening at the moment, such as asking prices of flats in the same block now under that of 2018. With perhaps the final selling price at another 5-10% under this, this might produce lower and lower lows by the time the results feed through. With no more props we could get a situation where the masses do realise that the last price run resulted in unsustainable prices and things will be lower in future.
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