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House Price Crash Forum


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About simon2

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  1. Without hearing her speak I am more inclined to think she is born here with an Italian name. Maybe there is a skew of EUers towards it, but what I see is that mainstream media present home ownership as some kind of safe investment that always goes up, and something that makes your life better. And for most people the only way to afford it the shiny new thing is to go for a prop. HTB/SO are living beyond your means really, just that it is never presented as such. But that's how warped the game has become.... without equity gain from a previous sale or massive BOMAD young people have to li
  2. Personally I think these flats exist in virtually another market. There seems to be two types affected, the first is the very old, ex-LA ones like Grenfell. Nobody wants to live there anyway, nor are they very mortgageable in the first place. When they do come up for sale they are well below normal prices, reflecting the fact that they are not normal. I've seen cases where they are 50% of a new build closeby with the same floor space. The second type is the modern ones. Only a few are cladding related IMO, the rest for the fire certificate. But some of them are so overpriced that even a r
  3. I do wonder how this will develop. Here is an interesting one: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-83796004.html 3 price cuts in a month. No pictures of the exterior (obviously either cladding or wood). Cash buyers only. Signs of an owner in distress and needing a quick exit - they know very well that trying to list it as a normal listing results in massive delays. £370k I think it selling at a loss on the 2015 initial price. This area is a bit of a strange one, lots of shiny new buildings and Canary Wharf dominates the view, but right next to some real o
  4. Only the worst cases are being presented here. Most people in the same position have nothing to do with cladding, but rather the wait for the EWS1 certificate. It is perhaps convenient to conflate that so many people are affected, in reality it must boil down to a couple of hundred of blocks. IMO there are already a raft of measures being taken; many of the big housebuilders are eating the cost themselves - perhaps an investment into future political favours; governmental pressure not to fleece leaseholders like they do for stuff like changing lightbulbs. The worst-case scenario
  5. Comparable ones aren't selling as far as I can see. Lots of new build flats at the £450k-500k bracket. Two flats in the same block are SSTC at £400k and £425k. But this was just before lockdown, I suspect neither have completed since because of lack of EWS. I think this is same kind of story for a lot of the poorer areas of SE London. The shiny new builds are a massive premium to the rest of the market, as 2/3 bed terraced houses are between £300-400k, and old-style 2-bed flats with the similar sqft is around £250k-300k.
  6. I guess they probably looked at houses in London. For pretty much all of the last decade (excluding the last few years) you could live in a house and do nothing to it, even make it in a worse condition, and as long as you waited at least a year, the price would have gone up. Maybe not what a HPC site wants to hear, but it is the truth. There are probably a whole generation of younger people who have no doubt that property values never fall and have a near perfect correlation with time. Another aspect is that people simply can't afford to take a loss. I know someone who was on the HTB
  7. Absolutely, HTB has really distorted the markets. There are a number of flats that you think 'no chance', but HTB makes the difference. They are possible to buy with it, even at the stupid prices. Where the wheels fall off is later. It is crackers to see an 2016 build put on the market for £450k or so, which is more or less the same asking price as one that is brand new and does qualify for HTB. There are quite a few people who can afford with HTB, much fewer people who can afford without. And for those who can, is a flat may not be suitable for their likely life stage. The Saff
  8. The last two major developments were never for sale, but build to rent blocks. Some of the more recent ones are struggling, there is a massive office block conversion which I think is not shifting at all. It is a combination of poor location, high prices, and also being shit inside - small rooms, no balconies. They are having the cheek to be asking for £450-470k for a 2-bed flat, which I think is at least £170k too much. They may get lucky, last time I passed the ground floor appeared to be a large office space. That will appeal now. There is still a lot more to come IIRC. A new 'qua
  9. Croydon and some surrounding areas. It is interesting watching at the moment, flats and crapper houses are leading the charge down. Nicer houses I think will end up being more resistant. I think it's madness not to take a modest mortgage if it is on a long fix and you are not over leveraging yourself. Trouble is the prices are not near where I would consider. Perhaps another 20% off? We could get that in some places, IMO.
  10. I was saying about the crap properties: Don't think I have seen a 1-bed flat in Zone 2 for under £200k for a while, even if this is quite a poor example. This seems set to drop under that. At £150k this is probably right for the type of person that could live there. A first time buyer earning £30k with a deposit of £30k. Sadly I think it'll be bought before it hits this price, renovated a bit and turned into a rental.
  11. London is just a mash of lots of separate markets. Both area and property type. There have been some really sharp falls in some places. Modern flats in the E14/E16 postcodes for example, I see quite big falls off sky-high asking prices. Poor quality houses in unfashionable postcodes also falling. I wouldn't be surprised for some flats that they are more than 20% off the peak once sold. Nicer properties in more desirable areas not so weak, or perhaps their falls are to come later if chains break. Personally I think it's really interesting just watching. There is some clear psycho
  12. I doubt it. Unlike traditional agents their selling point is the low fee, so there is less need to overprice a property to get the business. But that isn't to say they can't overprice, after all its the seller that sets the price. A lot of people out there simply fishing for mugs.
  13. https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4016667-I-stupidly-looked-at-Rightmove May be an interesting trend here. Chains may take months to get into place. By that time falling property prices makes other places look better value. An increase in people withdrawing at the last minute to chase something else.
  14. Living in one room is nothing new. There are probably some very large department stores like Debenhams that are now disused and very few potential tenants want them or could fill such a space. One store could probably fit hundreds of these micro-studios in and have the basement floor for communal services. It would also bring back footfall to the high street. If they were priced at a discount ie ,a studio coming in at 50%+ of a normal 1-bed flat it may drag the market down with it. But if they were built now they would be priced up with HTB at stupid prices.
  15. Next month could be interesting. The stats are helpful. London flats at the starter end increased by £100k or more in a space of 1-2 years, usually they were £250k for the stamp duty limit. No reason to think that this could happen but in reverse. At the moment many ingredients are in place, the only thing lacking is interest rate rises. The mainstream media stats conceal this. On the way up, the massive rises were tempered by other parts of the country stagnating. On the way down, the massive falls are going to be tempered by other parts of the country doing better. And this is bef
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