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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Problem is nobody knows if it's temporary or not. An analogy is like banging the ketchup bottle - you get nothing for ages and then too much comes out. It's the same with inflation - we've had none for ages, to think that the banks will be able to control it is fanciful to me. It's likely that too much will come out, but then is the time to take measures. The scam is of course inflation has been here already, it's just in things that aren't in the measures. Like houses. Do we not remember Carney and his 'unreliable boyfriend' stuff? If you ask me it's more dim to start thinkin
  2. In the very short run ie 1 year there is nothing forcing rates up that I can see. Quite the opposite. The longer run may be different and I think its a skewed bet, way more likely it'll be +2% more from here than -2%. But seems like ample room for props, especially into the future. £200 of UBI a month in digital currency which only can be redeemed against interest? TBH there is much to be said for letting the cycles play out itself and let markets find their own level. But the way it is, people's own circumstance and self-interest overpowers everything else. This is compoun
  3. OK fine, but that seems to me to be a discretionary thing. If it was written in the T/Cs that you could change to another product by just paying a fee with no checks then this man should be complaining to the FCA for the mortgage company not adhering to what it promised, but I'd imagine the T/Cs are not like this. The guy still knew that one day his mortgage would increase in rate and there was a risk he may not be able to get a refinance. Two ways that can happen is loss of income, or loss of value of house giving bad LTV... not sure what basis he has to complain. Saying that other
  4. Why is it deemed as the 'loyalty penalty'? People know that their mortgage is for a fixed amount of time at one rate, which is shown upfront, after which it goes onto a different rate - which is also known upfront assuming constant interest rates. Most people tend to remortgage away to continually lock in the lower fixed amounts, but there are risks in either interest rates rising heavily or not having the income for the new mortgage. So basically this guy wants to take the risk, but not suffer any of the consequences. It is a bit like me complaining that the 17.9% APR on the c
  5. Upload it somewhere else like imgur and then put the link here. Would be interested to see it
  6. Nothing new really. Even in the good times nice houses have gone quickly. In these times, what counts as 'nice' has kind of expanded a little bit to include average houses with outside space; the houses that I've saved on RM as interest all SSTC. By contrast, flats are sticking around a hell of a lot longer... the market has really shown a divergence. Flats are well out of fashion atm, some of the ones I have saved are massively down (30%+) on their peak price... by contrast houses have advanced on that. So in some ways the crash in flats is already here. The more it goes on, t
  7. That fire actually looks well contained to me. A bit like the one in Shepherds Bush. I seem to remember the shocking images from Grenfell that the flames went vertical as the cladding caught fire thus spreading it to other floors and thus not being contained. That doesn't seem to have happened here even though the cladding on either side of the flat has had enough time to catch fire. The fire seems to have spread to the floor above via the ceiling. One thing that won't change, cladding won't prevent fires. Flats will always have lots of flammable things in, and people will alway
  8. I wonder what a protest would look like? TBF the media is a joke - every time I see the average figure it seems to climb.... £100k now? And they won't point out that this figure is faced by only the top couple of unlucky percent. But it is too inconvenient for anyone to correct. Barratt fixed one of their flats at a cost to themselves. They also have £1bn in cash on their balance sheet. It would be better for a protest for the public to link hands and not buy from any developer who won't commit to funding repairs - a couple of months and that would fix their minds. It won't hap
  9. Exactly, those flats are grotesquely overpriced for what they are, and probably come with some seriously steep service charges. It's like a different market really. You also might sucker in some other assorted types of people, such as those with extremely large salaries, or maybe rich people gifting their kids money. The developers in general have been creaming it in for the past decade, most of the HTB benefits have accrued to them in the form of rising prices. I don't see there being a crash, just more of a stagnant market, drifting lower slowly instead of sharply. Prices wil
  10. I think those buildings are a bit different from the norm. Read somewhere, maybe on here that entire floors were sold to foreign investors at massive prices. They don't care, because it's like a save haven for their money, it won't be confiscated or depreciated massively. St George's Wharf in Vauxhall to me has very low occupancy, I suspect a lot are empty and sold to foreign investors along the same lines. There are also many thousands of flats in the Nine Elms area running along the same lines. For the average flats I think the story is much different. Brand new, those fl
  11. The banks aren't desperate, they aren't short of cash. Making a margin call would be bad because the chain effect would be to force people out, which could reduce the price of flats in general, which eventually reduces the prices of all other properties. What could they do if nobody paid the calls? The flats are still as unsellable whilst they need work, and the repair bills then accrue to the bank as the leaseholder. That's before the negative PR about making people homeless during a crisis. The other option is to simply extend and pretend and hope that the situation reso
  12. I wonder if they may become unviable anyway. I can see a car park from my window, used to be relatively busy before covid. Went to virtually nothing during lockdown and even now, probably less than 20% full. Working from home would really hammer demand, as it's close to a train station. Also people travelling in for business for face-to-face meetings. It may be the case that these old car parks make way for yet more flats.
  13. Thought 'The Decks' was a bit of an anomaly, it is: https://houseprices.io/?q=WA7+1GG Properties there were suffering bad losses well before cladding became a thing. Seems that they completed right into the previous peak. As for selling prices, I read that the estimated cost was £30k, but I don't think that is split evenly and like the service charge smaller flats will pay less than bigger ones. Still that probably means the flats may well be unsellable although the main factor is not the uncertainty of the charge but the low property value to start with and the subsequent situ
  14. To me there is little bear food around. The stats I think are a bit like the average wage going up - that's courtesy of the blend of workers being skewed as more low-wage people are out of a job entirely, leaving the pool overall richer. In the same way I reckon many more houses sold than flats than usual, some of that cladding issues, some of that covid preferences. Gotta separate it out though; actual houses I think will be resilient, and the cheaper areas going up might be able to offset the places like London which are going down. Flats, not so good but eventually even struggling
  15. How would it affect those who don't have the money to pay? Are they forced to take this loan out (where the max repayment is capped at £50 a month)? What happens to the loan when the flat is sold? Is it transferred to the new purchaser or does it remain with the leaseholder, even though they are not living there any more? What happens if the leaseholder doesn't keep up with the loan repayments? Not entirely sure anybody will be bankrupted. I feel those loans would make a good political target for being scrapped in future, and even if you could afford to pay remediation it m
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