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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by simon2

  1. Until they come up with better people I don't think there is any appetite for the left-wing stuff among voters and a more appropriate plan might try to be out-Conservative the cons. But they won't. Don't think any change will come in the short to medium term; in fact I actually wouldn't be surprised to see a party come from nowhere to challenge eventually. Maybe by the end of the decade a tech-savvy, woke, experts in going viral younger party would be quite appealing rather than the crusty old politicians we have now, who only seem to get there by virtue of Oxford or Cambridge. Maybe closer in style to Labour than Conservatives but with none of the baggage surrounding it.
  2. If they tried to manage for the good of the people why did interest rates go to 0% there in the first place? Essentially rewarding borrowers over savers.
  3. Interest rate 5 years ago was 0.25%, so virtually no return on that money. A £75k investment into that flat would have given £500 a month = £6k a year, before fees, voids and other expenses. Stand to be corrected but I think she would have gotten disability benefits which are not means tested. So this extra £500 (less fees) would be a fairly nice top-up. Is there much difference between her and those people protesting in China at the Evergrande offices? They invest in things paying 10% a year; paying that much ahead of the risk-free rate, even a kid knows there would be risks to that money, and plenty. Yet when it goes wrong they want their money back as it wasn't their fault.
  4. A straw poll: how much have the basics increased in cost this year? I renewed electricity and it seems to be 20% more expensive; overall food costs don't come on easily comparable tariffs but 'the big shop' is about 10% more, comprised of pennies increases on things and overall less special offers. For the lower incomes decreased disposable incomes means less to spend on retail. An interest rate cut isn't going to force spending on retail things, people will simply look to protect their savings in stuff like property, gold, crypto, shares, etc That's what the central bank digital currencies are for: give money an expiry date and only allow spend on certain things. The statistics can be gamed more than ever then.
  5. I too like the last one. The rest of them don't seem that plausible to me. Evergrande I suspect Xi would do something to avoid the public becoming an embarassment higher interest rates look quite unlikely over the short term, the governments wants inflation but also needs people to spend number of vacancies is at a high, the problem is people don't want to work, or can afford not to at the moment Furlough could happen again as the money could simply be printed. IIRC it costs £9bn a month, not a large cost in the scheme of things A run on sterling happens relative to other currencies, there must be countries in worse shape and to them £ has some haven appeal Boycott of house buying or rent strike - media are totally against that, the masses don't exactly need much encouragement as for a person with limited funds a mortgage is the only real way to speculate with other peoples money I reckon the US upcoming debt ceiling could have some bad effects if not resolved. As I understand it with some Dems already baulking at the massive stimulus, the Republicans could create some embarrassment for Biden by just holding firm, and this is made easier than a year ago as the unintended aspects of lots of free cash is evident (soaring home prices, people not wanting to work) A default then leaves the US with a choice on what bills to pay, so either they continue supporting their people and stiffing international creditors or they pay those creditors and reduce spend on domestic. But if they did the former, their bonds may not be seen as that attractive if people realise they are not front of the queue. I think it a pop might come with a company not only 'too big to fail', but 'too big to bail out'. Deutsche bank or something like that.
  6. For clarity I meant most people posting on that forum. Average mumsnet poster is what, 30-40 yrs? Not likely to have a massive pension just yet. I do think there is a vast amount of people where the majority of wealth is in the house, but it'd be heavily weighted towards the younger ages groups. It wouldn't mean most as in most people in the entire country, as an even huger chunk do not own.
  7. You can't blame them really. For most, houses make up the vast majority of their net worth. So stuff going up has been great. No co-incidence that the only real popular threads on there are those gossiping on about others houses with people chipping in how their is worth as much, or their previous house was like that, or reminding others of their mad gainz. Sort of a fight-club esque masturbation for the mind. However it is not really a phenomenon exclusive to there is it? On various forums I've seen threads on crypto and you get people gagging to have a comment just so they can brag how much money they have.
  8. Don't see much wrong with the house myself, most things can be re-done to your own taste. The price really seems absurd. For both of these cases I don't class this as real difficulty selling - they've only been on the market a couple months, one has had a tiny reduction, the other has had no reduction. At the right price they will sell pretty easily, it's not as if it is an unmortgageable flat with cladding. Seems to be a kind of subtle showing off that they have £1m+ houses.
  9. Just shows the mentality of how it is, if no comparables current valuation must be previous sold price + £x, as prices only go up. Did a search and there nothing in that price range apart from retirement properties, so it sounds like ******** to me. Taking away the mininum price to reveal all flats brings up loads of properties, 225k seems grossly overpriced for the area, so perhaps the surveyor is right.
  10. Interesting one that. Noticeably they left out the service charge, or any outside shots - presume on both counts the news will be bad. It's on with four(!) different estate agents, so has the whiff of a forced seller. Even on cladded flats I haven't seen that many.
  11. 25% off a house: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109934957#/?channel=RES_BUY Could be made pretty nice I reckon but a large job. Wonder what it was before?
  12. The kind of vested interest is amusing. I wonder why they actually deem it news? It seems that these stories are re-hashed every couple of months, just interviewing someone else: https://www.google.com/search?q=victoria+wharf+cardiff+bay&sxsrf=AOaemvICwzNZkks54W3BJdOcFN5Nly9N9g:1631088628010&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiH1pPS9u7yAhUYgFwKHW3OBbAQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1920&bih=937 That sort of pattern goes across lots of other developments. It presents nothing new. Looking at the sold prices it probably was not that it was unsellable pre-Grenfell, just not at a price they wanted. Not all of that was due to cladding, these flats being the very definition of 'new build premium'. The original prices in 2007 would have been a very bad buy although no doubt at the time they were visually very appealing.
  13. That's politics. Will be a slippery slope. The rise only give an extra £12bn; if the cap is low then I would think this kind of money will not be enough to make a difference and more will be needed. This is like a lubrication of the public backsides for other regressive taxes such as a tiny increase in VAT.
  14. Seen quite a few boats around London. Will they become the next retirement homes? Looking at the decor of that boat you can imagine a rich old boomer in their retirement. They seem to me to be more liabilities than assets. According to the dock website a 30m boat like this costs apprx £50k a year in fees (says discounts for annual but still must be a huge cost) For people inheriting them with no intention of living on it, they would just want rid.
  15. Almost 30% off: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/99947606#/?channel=RES_BUY I think the real story is that another flat is on sale in the building asking £1.3m more; don't see why it should justify that price, the cheaper one has balcony, garage, better decorative order. Slightly smaller internally but I think the balcony space and top floor balance it out, that flat sold for £2.9m 10 years ago.... wonder if the 'penthouse' was the most expensive sale? Hopefully one day we'll see a 50%er, but guess at top end of the market there are different drivers.
  16. Finally, 20%+ on a house in London: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109946351#/?channel=RES_BUY Not sure it is the greatest example, seems very optimistic to call it off-road parking when you'll need your neighbour to play ball to access it. However at this price it surely is a better buy than a flat with high service charge. Predict it won't need more reducing.
  17. Don't feel that sentiment has swung there but here is a good thread: https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4338946-Trapped-in-flat-wwyd Personally I know someone in the same situation almost identically. Anyone buying in 2016 or later new builds won't have any profit, but given the average late 20s/early 30s typical buyer after 5 years they may want families, for which a flat is not suitable. In this case I feel that ignorance is bliss - 'valued' at £385k doesn't mean someone will pay that; insufficient savings means they are stuck asking for a price. Renting it out sounds better than it is, pretty sure that accidental landlords in this situation will be making a loss by the time tax is taken into account. With another year or two ticking by surely these cases are going to only become more common as people in those cohorts get older? Some people cannot sell their flats due to cladding or other work, and the slowest moving bit of the market IMO in London is resale on recently built flats, previously was almost entirely price but now also no outside space.
  18. Old news really. I doubt that many parents have made such provision to bail their kids out. Heres one thing. The fire safety thing seems to affect many, many places. If I am travelling to a new city and see somewhere nice but also something like wooden balconies or cladding, I can google it. Guaranteed there will be some sob stories, always the similar variant of xxxxx saved hard for the flat, now its worthless. But despite a lot of noise being made, are there any forced sales of flats? You would think that if someone was facing ruinous costs but could bail out now at a small loss, why shouldn't they? Virtually all the listings I see for affected flats completely ignore the problem. Here is a typical example: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77204749#/?channel=RES_BUY Price was £200k new in 2003, and is back there now, but flats were at this level in 2016. The yield is pointless, assuming no service charges, no voids and no remediation costs. But if there was certainty on what bills would be faced I think it'd sell pretty easily, if the price was right. There is nothing stopping someone just reducing their price until it sells. But they don't. Which says to me that reality of the situation many of these people are facing is different from the over-emotional stories given to the press.
  19. Lendinvest are pretty reputable I think. You can see their calculator, £15k-20k might be a good estimate of it. Like the cladding stuff, it's not that the journos are gormless really, just that if they dug further the story would fall apart and then they would need to write something else. TBH a £90k spend on a house that price in Lincoln strikes me as quite surprising. It must have been a pile of rubble when they bought it, or an unsuitable extension. Or simply overpaid to start with, thus making any profit difficult. I'm not sure brave is the right word really, assuming that property dominates their net worth. A skewed exposure to any one type of investment isn't great, but in the eyes of most in this country property seems to have escaped that bracket as is seen as equal to cash. Thus we have the scenario of millions of people here with not much savings but plenty of property assets. Every day seems to have a new cladding story about someone who apparently saves so hard to buy a flat, but cannot afford a £10k bill. If someone was to put 90% in equities, crpyto last year they would have made way more, but the papers would describe them as gamblers, lucky or reckless.
  20. The way things are reported just make people eager to get involved. Like Homes under the Hammer never really give a thorough financial breakdown, even though they could. Take that one couple: £172k purchase price + £90k spend. Sold at £275k. A profit on a superficial level, but once fees/interest and time taken into account? As for the Saffron Walden lady, here is the listing - was listed in July 2021 but not listed any more. To get a £200k profit the selling price would have to be £1.4m+, She might get it. But here is the competition, needs someone to pay a bit above the odds.
  21. I don't think it is the lease, more high service charges. Same building, at £625k: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/105089093#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media0&ref=photoCollage Think it is unlikely it'll sell at that price though and will get reduced. That is share of freehold as well. Reckon around the £700k mark you could get a modernised flat with parking space, like this. That has long lease, just around the corner. A parking space must be adding at least £50k to that flat value. So that price seems in line to me, not sure anyone would pay equivalent market rates for a flat that won't have any natural light.
  22. Over 30% off in Westminster: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106615115#/floorplan?activePlan=1&channel=RES_BUY Probably a perennial lack of light due to being in the basement, but I would think at a discount to others in the area. For a young person probably better value than paying the £450k for new builds in outer zones.
  23. Lets be honest, we can be bearish about London but I cant really get my hopes up until normal houses that normal people want to buy appear here regularly. Very few of the London drops meet that criteria. Most of the reductions occuring at the top end which has different drivers. Or for flats that people overpaid for (ie HTB), then stuck on more money to try and make a profit for themselves, not caring that the flats market has been declining for the last few years. Regular houses in outer London that are OK for families that aren't taking the piss on price I would expect to shift quick. Today as I see it there are about half the listings there were pre-pandemic. The average quality is also a lot worse, a lot of stuff that hasn't sold is being regurgitated, but also the previously mentioned family houses feature much less due to being sold. There also must be a fair number of flats that would have made the listings but cannot, due to not being mortgageable.
  24. Do they say how demand is actually quantified? The biggest London postcode district by population I am aware of is CR0 and I think this captures some of the broader London trends, flats taken the biggest hits, whereas houses are resilient. Having looked at other London postcodes it also reflects that volumes have gone after the stamp duty holiday. Rightmove have not updated this number for May, but looking at houseprices it appears this number is 46... which means that sales of properties now are even lower than last year when everyone was locked down. Too early for June but up to the 18th there are 20 sales, so it looks like another low number. Some of those sales last year may have had their initial agreement in 'regular' times but it seems strange for transactions to be this low. The number of sales prior to the stamp duty holiday were impressive, as these would have come from a lower inventory of properties. AFAIK the listings on Rightmove have not recovered above c.70% of pre-pandemic numbers at any time. So the BBC et al are right in one sense that demand has risen; but I feel that was driven by a low number of properties. Maybe that will normalise, or maybe it wont. Another stamp duty holiday maybe?
  25. £100k off Acton: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/99146792#/?channel=RES_BUY Acton, like Clapham I think is a place where there are many drops to be found. More specifically a combination of large supply of competiting properties, and also being close to nicer areas which become more attractive with general price falls. One thing that I think is a sign of desperation is the modern auction method which should be outlawed, just a blatant attempt to get the buyer to pay the fees and getting people to bid against themselves.... Either way it shouldn't end with the starting price above a 4, a lot of 2-beds under this price point. Don't look at the previously sold prices here... may be some pain.
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