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House Price Crash Forum


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About munkee

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  1. I think for the north east there is a good chance of a crash to be honest, atleast down to 2001 prices. But at the same time as I said I believe it will be such a long drawn out process it isnt going to be something dramatical. I would love to see the ground fall away purely because of the amount of people on here waiting for the event but when reading back through posts as early as 2007 and then the big hurrah at the semi bubble burst in 2008 I think it is just so unrealistic for us to keep clutching at the hope ONE DAY we will see the HPC which keeps being predicted to be the end of this year, then the end of next year then the year after that.
  2. As hard as this is to say I just bought one of those. Well im in the process.. offers over 205k I have it for 198k. The area is decent though which is a plus side and the house isnt a complete shoe box (mainly the living room isnt which really bugs me about new houses and tiny living rooms.) It isnt my dream home, but at present I dont really know what would be a dream home given a realistic price to also aim for. I think my only motivation to do this is literally that we could be waiting another 2 years for the price drop to bite hard. The signs are all there, but then again we have been saying that since 2007 and we were faced with an "ok" correction. However, I just really cant be bothered with the stress and hassle anymore... I feel I have really sold out on the crash and become one of the stupid sheep (how obsurd is that..). But, at the same time it is a home I can live in for the next 15 years if I have to and to be honest my mortgage is equivalent 1 year salary ... and my salary is under 25k (hint hint) so overall I will be left with a fully paid house. To make matters better my parents have just sold a home they bought as a do'er upper pre 2004 which paid its mortgage due to the boom years up to 2007 and they have no where to put all the furniture other than letting me have it. Overall the situation just suits. I know deep down there WILL be a crash .. to be honest i hope its bloody horrific. I know I will lose a lot of actual cash out of this, but atleast I wont be stung with the mortage like others and I can be buying in a like for like market with a new bull attitude.
  3. I have to agree. Since the end of last year I have been telling friends/family it is inevitable that newcastle would fall flat on its **** and a crash was surely to start here. I was expecting this to be happening by now especially after the government public sector cuts. I used to work in the public sector a couple of years ago on a temp contract and I have to say they were having to meet a head count back then so god knows what it must be like there right now. I asked my gf's brother who works at the national insurance place at long benton and he seemed to think they have been told all of their jobs will be safe there. How can 600k (if i remember right?) jobs in public sector be going and the biggest public sector office in the country not be making anyone redundant/early retire? Anyway.. regardless to that rant as you have said there seems to be no movement at the moment. I have been following around 20 houses at a time in the 150k-170k bracket, and they just simply didnt move. I have now had to look to up to 200k to find anything semi decent. I dont know if I am living in some weird dream but im pretty certain you should be able to find a half decent detached house for £200k and not a shoe box.. but alas I am constantly reminded this is not the case when I open up right move. There are drops... but these are merely corrections to reality where askin prices have been over estimated by 30k and you see 5k and 10k drops in price. But this is not matching the real prices which in my opinion right now arent moving either. So we have a situation of over valuations (which I feel is around the 30k mark in the 100k-200k bracket) and the lack of movement in the real prices. If these government cuts dont hit the north east I will be shocked.. I think a further issue is the time scales. If the cuts were sharp we would have ourselves the crash but I feel the slow churning out will result in the stalemate continuing on into the foreseeable future. Buyers will be forced to buy stale property (as right move newest index suggests). Sellers wont have a huge amount of urgency to be selling (if interest rates dont move). So what we are left with is shit properties selling for inflated prices.. in my books that marks a recovery in the property market... not a crash =[
  4. I can really understand the anguish here. I have been in a similar boat since 2008 after leaving university. The housing market simply sucks right now as many would tell you but... I want a house. I have a girlfriend I want to marry and I have luckily for me a large deposit to buy with. As much as I have this push to go out and buy I know whatever I get now has to be something I am willing to live in for the next 10+ years. However as the rightmove november figures state there is no real incentive for anyone to be selling cheap unless you are trying to downsize before a redundancy etc. This has meant that we are stuck in this stalemate. I refuse to pay full asking on houses which quite blatantly are still living in pre 2007/08 bubble figures because I need to protect myself for the slow inevitable downfall we are expecting to see.
  5. I have to say I am with you on this one. I too have felt utterly depressed when looking at the house prices on rightmove. However, with that being said I am sort of forced to look. I am currently living with my gf's parents after moving for a new job. It is slowly wearing thin after having a place to myself previously. I am aiming in the 140- 170k price range paying with cash. However, the type of house you get for this money is to be honest utterly shite. I am now looking to take out a small mortgage to push my budget to 200k and I have to say the choice even there is few and far between. I have a viewing on saturday which I am hoping is the one. I know damn well the prices over the next 5 years are likely to take a slow and painful slump but due to my circumstances I am caught in a rut. I have to find a house I am willing to live in for undoubtebly the rest of my life, which doesnt make the search any easier. Searching is painful, it is demoralising and when you go to view what you feel is "about right" price wise you get unveiled the slums that some people like to call home. My issue really is that it is not just that houses seem to be around 30k overpriced in my bracket, but the fact that people putting their houses up seem to not really give a crap about how they present it. The amount of mess I have seen is disgusting but at the same time I suppose this is to be expected, the same houses I look at now were probably worth 90k when bought... "a different class of person" ... sorry to stereotype there, but really it cant be far from the truth.
  6. Good to see the bbc finally getting in on the change in market http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10915210 Coverage on the website and also on radio 1 whilst driving in to work. Funny to see how they play this with it clearly being obvious that whoever wrote/edited the article on the site was trying to discredit quite a few of the figures: Gives the impression that it is no longer on the pulse and there is a lot of mention of rising prices, regardless to the topic being disussed regarding lowered prices. However with that being said.. this was probably the most interesting part: A nice fluflly way of saying house prices are going to go down, so get realistic sellers because you will be stuck if you dont hack some of your dream sale price away.
  7. To be honest i think it depends on the price range you are looking at as well as the area/region. I am looking in the north east around newcastle and to be honest within my price range I am seeing a lot of falls. Seeing a £5k drop is the norm and I have seen a few £25k+ drops. Relative to what I am looking to pay for even 5k reduction is not bad at all. Since I will be buying with cash seeing a reduction like that is damn perfect. However with this being said, YES prices are still way above what they should. I went to look around the area where there is a property I'm going to be viewing soon and even though it's price had dropped from £175k to 166k it is still a good 20k over priced, but I expect when turnover is so low in the area the seller doesnt actually know the true price of the house so some good bidding might give me the chance to pick this up with some margin for the future crash.
  8. I think one of the issues that does need to be realised throughout all of this is the ignorance of the general public. Considering we have so many ways to find out information about what is going on out there on the market joe bloggs doesnt overly care. The only people to reach the "fear" phase are those that are being directly affected. I would say to be directly affected you need something along the same proportions of: Losing your job People you talk to regularily losing their job and within the same sector (even then they would go home to the wife and just say oh yea blah blah lost their job, with the wife response of oh my thats terrible, so what do you want for tea) Rising interest rates "tightening the belt" (affecting what they can eat for tea) A reduction in your pay etc What I am trying to get at with the above is people dont give a crap about the guy in the newspaper who lost his job. They dont care about the news reporter who suggests 600k jobs will be gone in the public sector. What the public care about is whats in their pocket right now or atleast, what isn't in their pocket. This selfish ignorance is exaclty why the fear phase will be prolonged and to be honest, not realised by quite a few. I feel the level of intellect may surpass some and the crash could be here and gone with a "house prices did what 10 years ago? I didnt know that". In order for the fear factor to take grip we really needed big lay offs within big companies. When people talk about "the public sector" no one really understands where excactly the cuts will be, infact I expect you could ask anyone how many people are currently employed within the sector and they wouldn't be able to tell you. Without joe bloggs knowing where the exact cuts will be, when they will be AND seeing them happen right infront of their eyes.. fear will never take hold as a nation.. we are FAR FAR FAR too ignorant to ever think it's me next. Sorry for the morbid example but, all of this is the exact same thing as when little boy racer passes his driving test. Does his 90mph in a 30mph zone and loves life. Totally clueless to the real dangers until they stack it in to a building and kill their girlfriend in the passenger seat. Thats the type of realisation some people need and I really do think its the realisation people will need to face in order to hit the housing market enough. They need to lose their job, lose out on income or be taken so close to the breadline that they have no other choice. They need their life impacted by something which they can not control.
  9. Thanks for posting the report and I have to say after reading through and seeing that the north east has had a -3.4% change since this time last year it ties in very close to what I have been seeing of late. A lot of properties on my bee from right move have been dropping by between 2500 to 5000 especially as of recent. Taking the 3.4% off my price range which is about 175k that works out to be just over £5000 reduction. Definitely seeing the figures becoming fact.
  10. I often take a look at the ftse 100 during my break at work. Whether there is an economic recovery on the forefront or double dip imminent or the end of the world as we know it you really cant deny that the ftse 100 is actually becoming a bit predictable. As was stated in a previous post it appears news seems to come in chunks of good/bad in my opinion signalling no one has a slight clue whats going on. However with that being said you only have to look at the general trends of the ftse to make some sound asumptions (even if there has been mentions of this good/bad news trying to manipulate the stats): http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE#chart3:symbol=^ftse;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined It's looking quite like the stone skipping across the water, a nice bounce every so often but regardless it is always running out of steam. We seem to be getting a nice jump just as we think the game is over, which slowly gets eaten away. These jumps are having to occur more often as the skips become shorter. I would probably say it is going to come to a point where no news can stop the inevitable, the ftse is going to hit a unresponsive point.. whether it chooses to slowly build up or fall regardless is out of most peoples hands I would say. I really am not seeing the temporary fixes stopping the push down.
  11. This will be a very general observation but, does anyone else still find the NE specifically newcastle/gateshead areas still taking the utter piss for prices? Houses that are being put up for £200k, to be honest I wouldnt even pay 100k for. What world are these sellers living in? I'm currently looking up to £170k for a cash buy hoping to catch a top property dropping down in to some form of realistic value, but after some searching around and monitoring property snake there just seems to be no significant movement within 100k to 200k range. I recently placed a bid on a "offers over £150k" property, which subsequently got a reply from the seller "I wont accept under £160k". Under what illusion are some people under, the offer met the critera, it was over £150k but that still isn't acceptable? I guess this is just a general rant, the attitude of sellers is completely off I wouldnt at all say this is a buyers nor a sellers market at the moment but the sellers all seem to be stuck in the mindset that they will have no problem selling, even after a year on the market.
  12. Parents over the course of my life have been feeding a bank account money for me as a "gift" which then got coupled with a very good house buy on their part when I was 13, all to dodge inheritance tax. They bought a holiday chalet for £35k which they rented out. They solid it 4 years later for £86k. With this money I bought a house in an auction near to where we live and did basic decorating / new kitchen / bathroom and made £15k out of it after a year. I then made a mistake during university buying what was a decent house for the money and proceeded to renovate in the same way. Then the crash came and I was very lucky to get rid of it, still at a loss. Since then I have been saving all my earnings from work accumulating the money I have now. I'm in a very fortunate position where my job required me to move, which just so happened to be where my gf parents live. So I currently pay rent for them which to be honest is £20 a week. So now I am sitting on the money and thinking of what move to make. I've learnt my lesson from the last "mini" crash and as people have said the past 10 years has been easy pickings for anyone to property develop and see gains, but I dont see the same in the future. I have been very fortunate with the cards that have been dealt and i'm not prepared to piss it all away. With this being said and as winkie stated, 160k cash really does not get me much. I'm very driven towards buying in a decent location, but in the current region I live in even the terraced houses can be above 160k. As far as people have said about travelling etc, Its never been a real interest for me im more concerned about getting my career on track.
  13. I have been reading this forum for quite a while and after reading this discussion it sparked me to register and post my dilemma. I know there have been plenty of topics regarding "should i buy now or wait" but what the topic starter stated here is exactly the confusion I have. However, with that being said I have a suttle difference. I'm 24 with 164k cash in the bank. Its been sat there a year after selling my previous house at the mid point of the last "mini crash". I was very very very lucky to get rid of the house when I did and lost around 20k overall. All that I have in my mind is that I cant afford to make the same mistake again. With this being said, I am currently looking for a new property infact I found a detached new build on the market for 155k in a good area with everything I could want (bar a small living room). Other houses on the same street are priced unrealistic around 175k but luckily I have a friend who works at the estate agents selling them and their records pretty much show no one will sell unless its at their price and the house im looking at purely is due to the guy wanting a quick sale and moving country. But I have worries, buy a house now for 155k which I could realisticly live in for the next 5 years happily, then wish to move in to something bigger.. or risk the crash and be stuck there with my cash gone down the drain. What i'm trying to get at is whilst it is always stated how mortgage payments are always the big worry at the moment, how are cash buyers affected by all of this? If the value of the pound drops and the houses crash technically I will just be in the exact situation as I am now. My cash will afford the same type of property because everything around has also declined. For futures sake, what should a cash buyer be aiming at right now? I have the felling I have a good buy infront of me, if the market wasnt so hazardous. The situation makes me want to just sit on the cash due to the sting of the last crash.
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