worried1

I wouldn't consider myself an expert. I've lived in the general area for many years, but have never been down that road, and one been to Berrylands once or twice. In short, if it goes for anything like the guide price, it's definitely a good prospect. Refurbished, these seem to sell for £700k+ and more if extended. The problem you might have is that a professional builder/developer might come in and bid the price up too high if they are in a position to do the required work more cheaply. Long version - you'd definitely need to make sure you are happy with the area. There is nothing wrong with it as such, but it is what I'd class as ultra-suburban in that you are surrounded by other houses in almost all directions, but there are very few local amenities within walking distance. Most places would be a drive away, which is not always what people want when they live in a built up area. This is completely different to Surbiton just down the road which is more densely populated but has lots of amenities (including Kingston) within walking distance. You could do without a car in Surbiton, probably not in Berrylands. On the upside, this is a fairly well designed 1930s estate, so there are some small areas of open green space dotted around and it looks like this house backs on to one of them and is close by another. There is a station close-by and although it is a slow service, it's in zone 5 (Kingston & Surbiton are in zone 6) and it's a service that you'll be able to reliably get a seat on in rush hour, unlike those from Surbiton.

Nice to see some posts in this thread! Flat are very difficult to predict. I'm actually surprised that there isn't any more difference in the lines on the graph above between flats and houses - anecdotally it appears that whatever the economic event, houses do much better than flats in this area. I'd agree that it at least makes sense with something like Covid as the boom in house prices caused by that is driven by: 1. People looking for outside space to avoid the worst effects of any future lockdowns. 2. Lots of traditional London to Kingston movers doing so younger than they might have done without Covid. They have always wanted houses rather than flats, but now there are more of them fighting over the same stock. I've always taken the view that there can only ever be so much difference between flats and house prices before they start to equalise a bit. Logically that must still be the case to a certain extent, but I wonder if the balance has been permanently changed by the above factors? For example, say you could buy decent flat in 2019 for £500k or pay £750k for that 'step-up' terraced house. If those values have changed to £425k and £850k by 2022, then the flat that was worth 2/3 of the house is now only worth 1/2. If that trend continues, the flat could be 1/3 of the house value before long. There is nothing to say that the flats being worth 2/3 of the house value was 'right' in the first place, but it is a fundamental shift and any direct linkage in prices might be permanently broken. I'm guessing there will be very few incomers that will be so set on living in Kingston that if they can't afford the house they want they would just buy a flat instead - they'll just go to Epsom, Sutton etc until they find the house they want at a price they can afford.

Not really, no! At this rate, I'll be back in a couple of years to comment on the rise of the £1m flat. Depressing...

I remember speculating on this thread (many) years ago when the price of a standard 30s semi in Surbiton would pass £1m. We've now arrived at the day when a Victorian 2up-2down passes that mark, in asking price at least: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/ It's quite nicely done, and I'm not saying its the worst value house on the market in the area at the moment, but it's one of those where the price made me do a bit of a double-take, and that is saying something after all of these years of madness.

It certainly looks as though there will be opportunities for those who want to WFH full time, those who want to go into the office full time and everything in between in the longer term. In the short term it depends on how the economy recovers - even the most ardent WFHer will probably be happy to get back to the office if getting another job is too difficult.

I can definitely understand that, but only the small 1 bed flats are now under £600k. The 2/3 bed flats are a lot more than that so don't qualify for Help to Buy.

Yep, I can’t imagine there were that many flats much over £567k back then, just the best few at each of the new developments The prices of flats now generally seem to be determined by how new the development is, hence the asking prices of over £1m for some of the brand new flats overlooking College Roundabout being more expensive than the ‘second hand’ ones with river views and no traffic noise. It’s odd to me, but I suppose some people really value having a brand new home! Proximity to the large estates is the one thing that does tend to dent the price of the new builds a bit.

It’s a bit of a strange article. She has moved from Kingston, which is an outer suburb of London rather than the city centre Indeed, I can’t quite work out what she was expecting from the move. Kingston is a suburb of London, but you can definitely still get away with not driving anywhere if you live in the right part of it. I live near there, and there isn’t really anything that isn’t within a ten minute walk of home (including a large town centre, railway station to get to central London, big parks etc). A lot of people do seem to drive everywhere though, so I can understand the attraction to some with getting away from the traffic and other downsides of urban life, just not doing so by going straight to the other extreme.

That interesting, I think you might be right. I’d always considered that block to be part of the Kingsnympton estate, but perhaps it isn’t. The estate would still have an effect on values, I’d expect. There have been several private blocks built on the edge of the Cambridge estate in the past few years and they are nowhere near the crazy prices for new build flats elsewhere in Kingston. The drop in value seems huge, but £567k seems a lot to have paid for a flat there eight years ago.

The first link just defaults to the Zoopla listing for all of Kingston, but i assume it is this one? https://ww2.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/53676123/?search_identifier=735a7400d61befcb791b9ebcfae804d2 This is the Kingsnymptom Park estate, the second biggest council estate in Kingston after the Cambridge estate. I don't think there is as much trouble there as the Cambridge estate, but I've heard of a few incidents over the years. It's classic Kingston council planning - there used to be a large mansion with grounds there and rather than build houses similar to the direct surrounds they choose to build a large, highly dense council estate! It will be interesting to see what happens with this estate going forward. The Cambridge estate is being redeveloped to an even higher density, so they might choose to do the same for this one next.

So much for my prediction/hope in my post of 30th September 2020 that this area might not be the ideal candidate for a 'COVID-bounce', as that appears to be very much what has happened. There seems to be an article in The Times almost daily about 'escaping London', '90 is the new 60', 'move to the country' etc., but what actually seems to be happening is that most people are either staying put or moving to outer London and the direct surrounds, perhaps because they think things will go back to 'normal' sooner rather than later. I don't think that Kingston has benefitted as much as the usual suspects outside of the M25 (Weybridge, Guildford, Sevenoaks etc.) where prices really seem to have shot up, but it's not too far behind. There still seems to be a severe lack of supply as well, which is probably compounding the problem somewhat.

I picture these mainly appealing to retirees, perhaps those downsizing from bigger houses on the Coombe estate so with a lot of cash to pump in. The usual rules don't seem to apply when it comes to Coombe - it's generally a totally different market segment to the surrounding areas so far less reliance on easy access to transport and facilities.

I'd be surprised if there are many flats in the area that have actually beaten inflation since 2013-14. It is a bit more surprising that some established ones have already fallen though. The last example would have been a new build in 2015, bought with a Help to Buy bung, so I'd have expected that to have fallen further than 6.1% from the artificial price. The others not so much.

I think a lot of that is to do with the industrial history - Kingston has been called the town that turned it's back on the river, which is odd given it's the one thing that sets it apart from a lot of other similar places. When I first arrived here, the Charter Quay development was still a disused car park, the row of riverside restaurants by the bridge was a multi-storey car park with one single restaurant and there was still a disused power station behind Canbury Gardens. John Lewis had not long been built, but even the riverside space built into their building was hardly used. So things have improved a bit, but not much. The whole High Street area has been forgotten about after the Rose theatre and that could be an ideal place for smaller independent businesses to be based and take advantage of the river. Surbiton is the same - one pub on the river and nothing else.

It's all about the net effect. There will be some people who move out of zone 1 to zone 2/3 and wouldn't even consider going any further. There are others who will live in commutable places further out (say Woking) and grab the opportunity to move further out if working from home allows them to. More people seem to be using this to be looking for areas where they can get more for their money rather than a complete change of lifestyle. I think that Zone 6 still could be an attractive compromise for some London movers, BUT only if it's priced right. If this house is priced right, then: 1. People moving out of most parts of London won't be able to afford it as it's the same price/more than where they are moving from. 2. People who live in that type of house already will be clamouring to move out as they will be able to afford much more elsewhere. Of course, we know that isn't the right price, but it only takes one person to be willing to pay it.

I don't know where they have got the price from. Looking at the recent sales on Rightmove, another modernised one on the very same terrace sold for £925k in June this year, and that had an extra bedroom in the loft already! Everyone seems to think that they will be a beneficiary of the 'COVID bounce', but I'm not so sure about this area. A lot of the value is in the commute and if that is less important for more people, why wouldn't they move further out and get more for their money? At the other end of the scale, this price puts it above a lot of areas that are further into London and traditionally more expensive. Your Earlsfield example is one, but you can buy this type of house in Barnes or Richmond for this money AND you'll be in a good part rather than out by the industrial estate!

Another new high-water mark in terms of asking prices this week: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-73641387.html It looks as though it has been nicely done, but I'm not sure many will appreciate the 'potential to extend into the loft' when they are already asking £1.2m for the house! I can never understand why this particular road is quite so expensive. It's nice enough in itself, but there is an industrial estate at the end of the road and it is a fair walk into either Surbiton or Thames Ditton. It's also a bit of a walk to get to a decent part of the river. It always seems like one of those locations where you get the disadvantages of living in an urban area without many of the conveniences.

That's the other part I don't understand - why do people think that they can sell their second hand flat after a few years for the same price as a brand new one? It's never really worked that way anyway because when someone buys a new flat, they are always paying a premium for the 'newness' that disappears on resale. Rampant HPI has hidden than effect over the years, but it shows more clearly now. HTB make it even more obvious, because most prospective buyers are going to choose a brand new flat with a 40% 'discount' over a second hand one at full price! Totally agree about new build being over-rated as well. As you say, you can bring an existing property up to as good a standard as a new build for relatively little money and a higher standard for not much more. You'd also likely benefit from a better location, larger room sizes, much lower service charges etc etc. You might miss out on a communal gym/cinema/reception, but I'm sure most people could do without those for a six figure saving.

HTB appears to be doing its disingenuous job in that case. What I don't understand is how the developers are keeping the prices so high when HTB runs out at £600k. There are plenty of developments here in Kingston where only the smallest 1-bed flats fall into the sub-£600k bracket with all the rest being much higher. It's hard to say how many are selling now, but if they are then who is buying? This development for example: https://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/developments/london/kingston/royal-exchange/wakefield-house It's in the worst part of town, right on the one-way system and surrounded by other run down sites that the dodgy council have allowed to be neglected. Best case, anyone who buys here will be surrounded by building sites for the next 5-10 years, worst case the area just goes further downhill as developers bail out. This type of price buys quite a good house in better parts of the area, a much bigger (second-hand) flat with river views and no traffic noise. Otherwise, buyers could look at a 'normal' flat in a much better road for about half these prices, or as you say, move to a much more expensive/central area and still save money.

They don't seem to know any limits, do they? They've been accepting these handouts for years, have been consistently lobbying for further support and now turn to this! The problem is that the public support it. As soon as there is a new tower block of flats proposed in my area (which has now moved beyond the HTB limit), anyone who opposes it is dressed down with the argument - 'we need more housing you know, so this a good thing'. They don't seem to realise that building £1m flats isn't really helping anyone but the developers and the councils hit their 'targets'.

In all the years I've lived in the area, flats in that block have always been significantly cheaper than any others nearby. I can't really work out why - it backs onto the railway, but so do all of the blocks on that street. It's reasonably low rise and inoffensive (looks a bit like a factory from the back), and has share of freehold and a lowe service charge. This one clearly needs work - no internal photos at all and the EA admits that it requires complete modernisation. It is encouraging to see it on the market at 20% less than the actual sold prices in the block in the past couple of years, but a lot of that saving would be offset by the work required.

I got my normal Rightmove update this morning. Things are getting worse! It now seems its over £1m to buy one of these houses in Berrylands: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-72920637.html It was bad enough when these breached £1m on the river roads, but this is getting beyond a joke now. Worse still, it's not even the first... https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71881182.html

That is what must be the problem in my mind - people are prepared to max themselves out, but can still only get to £1.5m. The other house I linked offers much better value, but is probably £200k+ more expensive (once brought up to standard) and buyers can't afford it. There clearly are buyers out there with more than £1.5m, but they are probably interested in better postcodes

Sure enough, both of these houses are under offer now. The semi was on the market for much less time than the detached, so there is a chance they went for similar amounts. Crazy times, but it appears that there is a lot of money/debt flying about regardless of covid and recessions.

I get several email updates every day from the major job sites across a range of job titles and have done for the whole of 2020. One of them (Totaljobs I think) puts a red banner with 'BEST PAY' next to the highest paid role in that specific email update. Back in Feb/March, these were generally highlighting roles in the £80-£100k range, now it is generally in the £60s somewhere and Ive seen a few in the £50s. The job titles and area have remained consistent throughout, so that is quite a drop. Part of this will be due to those in well paid roles are less likely to move on during such an uncertain time, but a bigger part of it is undoubtedly employers taking advantage of the current situation. Why wouldn't they? Contract rates appear to have declined similarly with a lot of roles that were in the £500-£500 pd range now done to about £350.