A World Without Oil

[AvidFan]

Damn. And I wanted to purchase some more cheap gold. I've got one word of advice to you all. ***PANIC***.

[House of Lords]

Damn. And I wanted to purchase some more cheap gold. I've got one word of advice to you all. ***PANIC***.

Well, not sure about mainstream - remember the front page of the Indy always has the end of the world predicted so most people will carry on as before.

The only way people will really realise is when prices get silly.

[chichi]

it got read out on BBC breakfast.

Only a mention though.

[Furby]

This scenario is flatly denied by BP, whose chief economist Peter Davies has dismissed the arguments of "peak oil" theorists.

"We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies as from production peaking."

No absolute resource constraint!!!!!

He gets paid to say things like that.

F

[Orbital]

Dont panic!

Worse case, we'll just have to follow in the foot steps of our Euro pals - Sweden. They are already blazing the trail for an oil free economy. I realise this is not good news to the weirdo doom mongers but hopefully a light at the end of the tunnel for the rest of us.

I just hope we move towards this path sooner rather than later, Europe is particular vulnerable becuase of our poor resource to usage ratio.

"The country aims to replace all fossil fuels with renewables before climate change damages economies and growing oil scarcity leads to price rises.

According to the Guardian newspaper, a Swedish minister said oil dependency could be broken by 2020."

Phew, now all relax!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4694152.stm

[munro]

"The Scandinavian country, which was hard hit by oil price rises in the 1970s, now gets the majority of its electricity from nuclear and hydroelectric power. In 2003, 26% of all energy consumed came from renewables, compared with an EU average of 6%.

The oil committee is to report to parliament in several months. Swedish energy ministry officials said they expected the panel to recommend further development of biofuels derived from its substantial forests.

It was also expected to expand other renewable energies such as wind and wave power."

So they've got hydroelectric from, presumably, lots of mountains with big rivers to dam. They've also got substantial forests, and lots of coastline to do the wave thing. Sounds great for them but hardly a recipe for, say, a flat landlocked country with limited tree cover. Good for them but it's a recipe with limited applicability.

[Hard-up]

[Minos]

Dont panic!

Worse case, we'll just have to follow in the foot steps of our Euro pals - Sweden. They are already blazing the trail for an oil free economy. I realise this is not good news to the weirdo doom mongers but hopefully a light at the end of the tunnel for the rest of us.

I just hope we move towards this path sooner rather than later, Europe is particular vulnerable becuase of our poor resource to usage ratio.

"The country aims to replace all fossil fuels with renewables before climate change damages economies and growing oil scarcity leads to price rises.

According to the Guardian newspaper, a Swedish minister said oil dependency could be broken by 2020."

Phew, now all relax!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4694152.stm

Oil is far more than just energy. What about plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals etc.

[Levy process]

Damn. And I wanted to purchase some more cheap gold. I've got one word of advice to you all. ***PANIC***.

Unfortunately the headline is misleading, and will only add to the complacency. While the article does make it clear that the point is that peak extraction is now or soon, and that's when the economic crisis starts to unfold, the headline talks about "having no oil". So people that aren't thinking that hard about it will skim over, find a nugget there or elsewhere that tells them that oil reserves won't be depleted for x decades yet, and then they'll stop worrying, missing the point that it is not when the last drop of oil is squeezed out the ground that the problem starts, it's now.

Why couldn't the article have been headed "A world with collapsing oil production capacity"?

[Guest Skint Academic]

Damn. And I wanted to purchase some more cheap gold. I've got one word of advice to you all. ***PANIC***.

There will always be oil in the world, it just depends on how economical it is to get it and whether there is enough.

[House of Lords]

Funny how everyone believes everything that comes out of the Swedish govt.

Afraid the reality of their oil-free plans is a bit different I've heard from people in Sweden. Nice plans but nobody's that sure how they're going to do it.

Just a thought, are they going to stop all flights by 2020 then? Nuclear planes maybe?

[jimmyjazz]

So they've got hydroelectric from, presumably, lots of mountains with big rivers to dam. They've also got substantial forests, and lots of coastline to do the wave thing. Sounds great for them but hardly a recipe for, say, a flat landlocked country with limited tree cover. Good for them but it's a recipe with limited applicability.

you have just described Scotland which in the coming years will become self sufficient in energy and water while england starts running out of both due to its unsubstainably large population.

millions of english will seek to move to scotland.

so buy up cheap land in the north of scotland if you get the chance because within the next 20 years people will start living there again in large numbers (unlike now where it is deserted) .

Edited June 14, 2007 by jimmyjazz

[sossij]

you have just described Scotland which in the coming years will become self sufficient in energy and water while england starts running out of both due to its unsubstainably large population.

millions of english will seek to move to scotland.

so buy up cheap land in the north of scotland if you get the chance because within the next 20 years people will start living there again in large numbers (unlike now where it is deserted) .

Agreed. Once global warming kicks in properly, the south and midlands of England are going to be unsustaining scrub/desert. Scotland will be a useful temporary jumping off point before the eventual migration of what's left of the human race to the temporate climate of the Arctic.

I'm going to start breeding camels.

Edited June 14, 2007 by sossij

[Furby]

you have just described Scotland which in the coming years will become self sufficient in energy and water while england starts running out of both due to its unsubstainably large population.

millions of english will seek to move to scotland.

so buy up cheap land in the north of scotland if you get the chance because within the next 20 years people will start living there again in large numbers (unlike now where it is deserted) .

There is an obvious downside to this plan.

You would have to live in Scotland.

Nothing is that bad.

F

[Agentimmo]

within the next 20 years people will start living there again in large numbers (unlike now where it is deserted) .

Jimmy, "again" ???

The population is about 5million. it's never been much higher. Until 150yrs ago, it was under 3million.

I think independence is only a matter of time. But one question remains : Will England let them leave the union and take all the all revenues with them. And the control of oil ?

Interesting discussion, eh

[Gone baby gone]

Just a thought, are they going to stop all flights by 2020 then? Nuclear planes maybe?

Biofuel?

[House of Lords]

I think independence is only a matter of time. But one question remains : Will England let them leave the union and take all the all revenues with them. And the control of oil ?

Interesting discussion, eh

Not really, the oil and gas is dwindling fast - otherwise they'd not be allowed near it!

[sossij]

Biofuel?

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2005/12/06...an-fossil-fuel/

"In 2003, the biologist Jeffrey Dukes calculated that the fossil fuels we burn in one year were made from organic matter “containing 44×10 to the 18 grams of carbon, which is more than 400 times the net primary productivity of the planet’s current biota.”(1) In plain English, this means that every year we use four centuries’ worth of plants and animals."

Not really an option

[House of Lords]

Biofuel?

Yes, very likely.

There are so many problems (it freezes, it's not got enough energy, people need to eat, it needs fossil fuels to grow & fertalise) it's going to take a lot longer that 14 years to develop, test and re-equip a whole fleet of plains, refueling infrastructure etc etc

Basically biofuels are great spin at the moment and nothing more - that's why China has dropped them. They might improve over time but getting to an energy density of oil with all the other attributes isn't looking to happen any time soon unless you believe in fairy stories.

[Agentimmo]

Not really, the oil and gas is dwindling fast - otherwise they'd not be allowed near it!

They'll still be bringing the black stuff out of the North Sea in 40yrs time. It may be expensive, but it will be extracted.

While it might not be enough to pay for the UK unemployment benefits and social charges as it did under the Tories in the 80's (for 60 million people), it will still provide a nice source of revenue for a country of 5-6million. Braw !

[kagiso]

Damn. And I wanted to purchase some more cheap gold. I've got one word of advice to you all. ***PANIC***.

Panic ye not.

The market will provide:

http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/..._etha.html#more

Cellulosic ethanol at 50p/litre, equivalent to $42/barrel, 5000 litre per day trial plant up and running.

As it moves large scale, prices will continue to drop.

The most important part for the English to manage is to ensure the subsidy junky Scots have gone independent before the price of their main export falls through the floor.

[munro]

Panic ye not.

The market will provide:

http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/..._etha.html#more

Cellulosic ethanol at 50p/litre, equivalent to $42/barrel, 5000 litre per day trial plant up and running.

As it moves large scale, prices will continue to drop.

The most important part for the English to manage is to ensure the subsidy junky Scots have gone independent before the price of their main export falls through the floor.

Meanwhile in the local shop the price of sugar has gone up, depending on which grade you buy, by 10 to 25% in the last two months. I'll believe these price drops when I see them. There are just too many people in the world to feed first. (Although no doubt many millions will starve so selfish gits in the west can fill up their 4x4s.)

[House of Lords]

They'll still be bringing the black stuff out of the North Sea in 40yrs time. It may be expensive, but it will be extracted.

While it might not be enough to pay for the UK unemployment benefits and social charges as it did under the Tories in the 80's (for 60 million people), it will still provide a nice source of revenue for a country of 5-6million. Braw !

Well, looking at current projections it'll just about be enough to power the infrastructure to get it out:

Edit: So it's clear that attention should continue to focus on drinking Tennants,head-butting anyone who walks past, eating deep-fried Mars bars and generally dieing at 23

Edited June 14, 2007 by House of Lords

[dude wheres my house]

Just a thought, are they going to stop all flights by 2020 then? Nuclear planes maybe?

The soviets had one of those, but the lead shields where too heavy to fly so they removed them and irradiated the crew

Edited June 14, 2007 by dude wheres my house

[sossij]

Well, looking at current projections it'll just about be enough to power the infrastructure to get it out:

Interesting graph.. can I ask whether you know why there's a dip in production around 1990?