Fawkandles Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 The XEL announcement is getting closer. Falling price today which I actually predicted (not joking ), but not got the balls to trade it. Just holding for news through the rollercoaster. I reckon a week of waiting yet though, but still can't take my eyes off the price. Still on 235% paper profit so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 (edited) Not on this forum you didn't, did you? TBF though, it's people rotating out of XEL I would suggest, another ten trading days before the results and we all know what could happen hopefully. I didn't on any forum as I was working when I predicted it, I promise. I'm terrible at short term price change predictions, so was amused when it kept falling. My Dummies book helped me see the trading window and trend etc. Day trading is not for me! Yeah my learning point from RKH was to never underestimate the lack of patience of AIM investors. They move their money elsewhere if the news window is certain, so you'd be foolish to not do likewise. Re ten more days - this depends on your interpretation of the RNS saying "flow testing in first week of Dec". First full wekk? Week starting first monday in December? Flow tests lasting 5 days? More/less etc? I wouldn't want to chance my money elsewhere in the meantime. Edited November 29, 2010 by Fawkandles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 (edited) Yeah my learning point from RKH was to never underestimate the lack of patience of AIM investors. They move their money elsewhere if the news window is certain, so you'd be foolish to not do likewise. Not sure about this - a very short-termist view. There was a post earlier in this thread about selling out too early with RKH. The next 3-4 months will see some more action, and you may find yourself trying to catch a soaring knife! The lack of patience is entirely true, but instead I see it as an opportunity to buy. For example, the slight dip in certain oilies over the next few days as people free up capital to trade other oilies who are about to report results. I see these as opportunities to buy / top up, rarely to sell as it is easy to get caught out. Edited November 30, 2010 by Cash with Nowhere to Go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The key phrase I used was "when the window is certain". With RKH I still feel confident I was right to leave. Its bobbed around 310p for ages now due to having no means to get news, no rig. In other news, XEL should rise nicely today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Good lord, everything is going up! AVN, DES, XEL yippeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 What a day. Sold DES on the fall at 118p. Lucky to be out with a small profit. Got home, burgled.... Must have scared them off cos they only robbed half the living room. Police on the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Sorry to hear about that!! What a bunch of SCUMBAGS. Keep us updated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Dunno what to do. What should you do? I called the cops. They're on the way. Told not to touch anything shiny by the window area. Call insurer next I guess. Worried about the broken window and my awful letting agent fixing it. I don't want to leave the house tomorrow knowing that a THIEF out there somewhere knows that is plenty more valuable stuff here to rob, and the window is still broken.... Oh its frickin freezing in here too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm holding XEL. Too many good omens for the flow to have a poor likelihood of success. Its my understanding that they have flowed this stuff before, and the team they have working on it is second to none. Add to that the binding rig agreement and i'm confident. (just noticed another thing that got robbed... GFs laptop) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Think I have about 2000 of them too. 700 quid at 76p and 700 quid at 104p ... My calculator probably got robbed too How does one go about boarding up a window? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 (edited) Selling DES has given me spare cash for a new investment, and BPC is top of my watchlist. Is anyone else in BPC? It ticks a lot of my boxes so far researching it - in early enough for potentially big profit, but its up enough to confirm they're onto something good (for comparison XEL had doubled many times before I got in), its geo-politically safe enough for my taste, not too remote in terms of infrastructure, good % ownership of acreage, and probably some other stuff. Thoughts? I know Martingale mentioned this before, and suggested waiting for a big drop to 8p, but that seems unlikely? I can see it dropping a bit, but surely not 8p? (14.8p close today, down from 15.5p). Its still at a small market cap which I like, and is nowhere near drilling stage yet (q4 2011), plus has several good prospects. The 16p 1 year broker target seems low? The same broker targets go onto say the price could reach silly big numbers long term. Meryl Lynch reckons this could be a 7-bagger by spud. All looks good to me. Is there a good technical analysis site that would let me analyse the price data for free without subscribing £/month? Edited November 30, 2010 by Fawkandles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 It's not going to happen, but if you do see one, please, let me know. Advfn £150 per year my rec. Charts, dimensions, lists, alerts, financials etc etc should be enough tbf. Plus, if you take my advice and switch to the fool dealing service, you'll save yourself 30% on fees! I was with Barclays years ago, still have my Natwest account open, but will be closing soon. Did you have a look at GEM for the misses when I recommended them to you? Didn't look at GEM, thought you were joking also mining is out of my comfort zone (but plan to get into it) As for the tech analysis stuff, will consider ADVFN. I just thought there would be some site that let you look at a shares prices, resistance/supports, stochastics and wotnot for free, just not live. After-close stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 (edited) Does iii not let you do this? No matter I have discovered Barchart.com. This will suffice for getting the indicators I need. Right, decided! I will be strict with myself and wait for the technicals to give me a good buy price. My noobish spideysense says the price should (not considering expected news - a big caveat!) drop back towards its moving average, with support at just below 13p. Hopefully the MACD oscillator will have gone below zero and be on the up passing over zero by then, confirming my buy price. Is this how its done? This will be an interesting experiment in technical analysis for me, and I may throw my dummies book in the bin if the price rockets whilst I wait. Will also research the fundamentals more in the meantime. Edited November 30, 2010 by Fawkandles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Can anyone give me basic tips on selecting time periods for MACD oscillations? Barchart.com uses 50/20 days as default, but what would be best for analysing this share (BPC) at this time? Likewise for number of days for EMA comparisons http://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/BPC.LS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Nope has LSE stocks and all the indicators you want up to the previous day's close eg this one showing my CAZA shares are gunna go up soon - http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=CAZA.LS&style=classic&p=DO&d=M&x=68&y=12&size=M&log=0&ed=12/01/2010&v=0&divd=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&ch1=011&ch1a=&ch1b=&ch1c=&ov1=051&ov1a=10&ov1b=30&ov1c=1&ch2=&ch2a=&ch2b=&ch2c=&ov2=&ov2a=&ov2b=&ov2c=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=12/01/2010#jump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 (edited) Good shout on selling XEL short term I reckon, but i'll still hold as I'm too scared to trade it. This weather issue is concerning tbh. I'm trying to figure out how many days they have left to finish the test. Any idea? They said "65 day well program" on 29th September, but does that mean it MUST end after 65 days?? Edited December 1, 2010 by Fawkandles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Whats the worst case scenario though? How long do they have the rig for etc. How late can they leave the test? This is whats bugging me. I'm sure it'llbe fine, but its best to be worried before the other investors! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Should have bought GEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martingale Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 (edited) Is anyone else in BPC? I know Martingale mentioned this before, and suggested waiting for a big drop to 8p, but that seems unlikely? I can see it dropping a bit, but surely not 8p? (14.8p close today, down from 15.5p). Its still at a small market cap which I like, and is nowhere near drilling stage yet (q4 2011), plus has several good prospects. The 16p 1 year broker target seems low? The same broker targets go onto say the price could reach silly big numbers long term. Meryl Lynch reckons this could be a 7-bagger by spud. All looks good to me. It's a nice stock with plenty of upside, I got in at 4p and topped up at 6.5p and I'm happy to stay in. As to whether it is value at now it's probably worth a punt. However personally I'd wait for it to test a low (e.g 14 or 12.5) before getting in. Edited December 1, 2010 by martingale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hi Martingale I am doing just that. My technicals book and barchart.com tells me it should retrace back down to 13p ish. If not, mooch around looking for another bargain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hi Martingale I am doing just that. My technicals book and barchart.com tells me it should retrace back down to 13p ish. If not, mooch around looking for another bargain! Its working Down 5% today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 So how about that XEL rise eh? My 'folio hit an all time high at the psychological figure of 101.5% profit this financial year thus far. Not bad for a noob! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Let me be Xcited for a while at least! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 As to your statement: of course. Remember though, it's only a profit or a loss once you hit that sell button. I'm on tender hooks just like everyone else. Although some shares do still go down on good news. Thought you sold some already? My hunch is that 330p is very high for pre-flow. Maybe it won't go up much, or will followed by selling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 In retrosretrospect, yes, but that means nothing. I really want my portfolio to reach 10k by xmas, so need it to go to 630p! (This will not affect my strategy however! I'm not THAT stupid) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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