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House Price Crash Forum

Newcastle Upon Tyne


neilrich

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HOLA441
 

One to revisit, see what it looks like in the early Covid fall out.

Esp. wit hthe Everythign selling!!! Prices are going UP!!!!! EA spin

 

NE30

Last 5 years of sales and pries.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=ne30&startmonth=06&startyear=2015&endmonth=06&endyear=2020

 

Last 12 months, making new trends easy to spot

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=ne30&startmonth=06&startyear=2019&endmonth=06&endyear=2020

NO DETACHED HOUSE HAS SOLD IN THE LAST 3 MONTHS

 

Numbers in for August.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=ne30&startmonth=06&startyear=2019&endmonth=08&endyear=2020

It looks like 1 - countem - detached house sold in July.

Thays its for 5 months.

So much for stamp duty bounce.

 

 

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HOLA442

Morning, long time member on here but lost access to my old account. 

Recently returned to Tyneside from Scotland mainly due to covid and wanting to be near our kids, thought I would have a look on here.

Looking through threads from when I joined in 2008 not much has changed, back then it was very London focused and full of hatred for Kristy, advice to STR and " keep your powder dry". Loads of self congratulatory circle jerk predictions that never came true.

Anyone who STR'd then in London will be weeping now. No one predicted that various govts. would do anything to keep house prices high, this is still seen as a good thing by many of the population.

I have been predicting a crash since 2000 and I have been wrong, who knows with Brexit and covid we might hit a perfect storm.

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HOLA444

Quick update. I'll start looking at moving to Tynemouth again this year. I gave up due to COVID and stupidity of the local market. I hope one of the main estate agents in the area has gone bust, they have been quiet/ no listing / no update since October.

Very little for sale, very little moving. 

 

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HOLA447

Interesting.

I've been checking the prices in NE1 for last few years - with a view to spending a few of my mighty Australian Dollars somewhere nearer to home. From what I can see most flats in the city itself are at or below their peak. Many have stagnated for 15 years or so.

Supply of nice houses in Northumberland is also on the rise. The heating bills on those would put many people off.

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HOLA448
On 03/10/2022 at 01:19, 17 Year Veteran said:

Interesting.

I've been checking the prices in NE1 for last few years - with a view to spending a few of my mighty Australian Dollars somewhere nearer to home. From what I can see most flats in the city itself are at or below their peak. Many have stagnated for 15 years or so.

Supply of nice houses in Northumberland is also on the rise. The heating bills on those would put many people off.

Despite prices not rising as madly around here, the salary multiples are still very high. Agreed on Northumberland big houses which will cost a lot to run. The coast is still staying mental price wise - lots of old cash buyers. 

Flats are still in oversupply and falling fast if you look carefully. 

 

Interesting times. 

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HOLA449

Having grown up there, I've got half an eye on Newcastle as a potential destination for our move out of London renter hell within the next year or two. Monitoring areas like High Heaton or the edges of Gosforth, i.e. well connected to parts central without being ultra-pricey. Interesting to see EAs trumpeting some big reductions on Great Park houses recently (not that I'd necessarily want to live there - a bit distant + bland + A1 noise - but some of the houses are nice by newbuild standards and if the right price happens to pop up...). Took a brief look at the coast too, but crikey, there still seems to be a premium and a half for living anywhere near there. I wonder if that'll change any time soon or if it's enough of an "old money" place that it'll be relatively unaffected by mortgage rate developments.

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HOLA4410
On 10/13/2022 at 8:17 PM, IfWeWereVampires said:

Having grown up there, I've got half an eye on Newcastle as a potential destination for our move out of London renter hell within the next year or two. Monitoring areas like High Heaton or the edges of Gosforth, i.e. well connected to parts central without being ultra-pricey. Interesting to see EAs trumpeting some big reductions on Great Park houses recently (not that I'd necessarily want to live there - a bit distant + bland + A1 noise - but some of the houses are nice by newbuild standards and if the right price happens to pop up...). Took a brief look at the coast too, but crikey, there still seems to be a premium and a half for living anywhere near there. I wonder if that'll change any time soon or if it's enough of an "old money" place that it'll be relatively unaffected by mortgage rate developments.

Could be worse. Could be living inside a massive puppet:

image.thumb.png.c08a7b244f5c9b27bedcd5b267ad5993.png

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HOLA4414
On 21/10/2023 at 22:43, a j said:

Any updates from Newcastle? I'm considering an escape from London.

Quite a bit of change. 

Sellers are still deluded, and so are agents to begin with, but the amount of cash buyers who aren't aware of what financing costs are today is dwindling, and I can see the vast majority of houses for sale being reduced. 

Not time to buy yet. I would say a year from now one can bargain very very hard. 

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HOLA4415

If coming from London then everything will seem very cheap.  Ask on here for info on areas to avoid.

Market seems to be a LOT of flats that apparently nobody wants to touch, then a lot of very expensive, overpriced places that I imagine few people in the region can afford.  There doesn't seem to be much of a middle.

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HOLA4416

image.thumb.png.bd19dc408fa1ef10b869ca4b8b21275c.png

Nominally flat prices from basically '06 to 2019. Then covid hit...

These are sold prices so they do lag but Newcastle in red (that would be a weird away kit) streaming north to catch up with English avg. Closing the gap on the "theres value up north".

Dont know the area (so please dont shout lol), but Gateshead showing value?

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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418

image.thumb.png.d9143a123b17e25300824fbb2690d0f0.png

To have nominal price appreciate aka house price inflation you need to hit it lucky, this graph corresponds so highly to wage growth. Other than that...you'd get real price depreciation if your not careful for over 10 years historically. Meaning you make a 'good' move from the south only to sell up one day with less purchasing power than you started with potentially...

Maybe thats a thing for you..maybe it isn't. Food for thought @a j with the data.

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HOLA4419

Many thanks to all. Hopefully I'll get a chance to spend a long weekend exploring. Got to say - some flats look lovely and with great locations, but amazingly high service charges. Makes the whole thing a lot tougher.

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HOLA4420
10 hours ago, a j said:

but amazingly high service charges.

Im with you here, some are utterly ridiculous. Eye wateringly high. If you are going to pay 1k pa in charges, over 30 years its a considerable chunk. 

I guess a large amount of this is swallowed up in admin fees of the firms instructed to carry out / organise the works (building repair / cleaning /  roofing / car parking / bills for common areas / bins etc).

Then again you can pay and have no issues, all the headaches are out sourced...🤷‍♂️

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HOLA4421

If you can sell up in the south and move north with cash - awesome!

If you can sell up and buy for cash all whilst keeping your job - double awesome! 😁

FYI

image.thumb.png.95ef595812da94eac20fae7fabcfceb0.png

@ £517 a week earnings (£517*52=£26,884) in NuT with average property prices of £204,356

They trade on 7.6x

..an idea - with prices for flats and maisonettes so plateau'd for years in NuT, nominally, meaning like an inflation adj loss likely, could you not rent (dont freak out yet) and invest the money. Seemingly getting a better return than property has provided?

Otherwise as I say above you run the risk of selling up one day, with less purchasing power than you started with. 

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HOLA4422
On 31/10/2023 at 08:25, Data Dave said:

Im with you here, some are utterly ridiculous. Eye wateringly high. If you are going to pay 1k pa in charges, over 30 years its a considerable chunk. 

I guess a large amount of this is swallowed up in admin fees of the firms instructed to carry out / organise the works (building repair / cleaning /  roofing / car parking / bills for common areas / bins etc).

Then again you can pay and have no issues, all the headaches are out sourced...🤷‍♂️

I can swallow £1000 a year. I like outsourcing building works! I see places advertised which are much more expensive for no obvious reason.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/140936567#/?channel=RES_BUY

£2k a year for ground rent and service charge.

Another one which would be at least £2k:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141313370#/?channel=RES_BUY

There are some (perhaps due to lifts?) which are well over £3k a year. Maybe that keeps the prices lower?

From a rough look I'd say the average service charges/ ground rents in Newcastle are much more than equivalent sized flats I've seen in great London and the South East.

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HOLA4423
1 hour ago, a j said:

like outsourcing building works!

👍👍 certainly easier 🤓😊

 

1 hour ago, a j said:

From a rough look I'd say the average service charges/ ground rents in Newcastle are much more than equivalent sized flats I've seen in great London and the South East.

You are flipping right, they do look expensive relative! 

 

1 hour ago, a j said:

There are some (perhaps due to lifts?) which are well over £3k a year. Maybe that keeps the prices lower?

Have you found that? Are you saying that the purchase price of flats are sometimes lower if the service charges are high? Would make sense I guess. 
 

Does make anyone in a flat want to keep an on service charges if its affecting valuations 🫣

Have to say it wouldn’t put me off if I liked the area and building but I’d be very conscious of service charges 

Edited by Data Dave
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HOLA4424
1 hour ago, Data Dave said:

Have you found that? Are you saying that the purchase price of flats are sometimes lower if the service charges are high? Would make sense I guess.

Ah, thought I could prove my point and have failed so far!

This is an example of the sort of place I was looking at on rightmove: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141095834#/?channel=RES_BUY. I found loads of them which looked great until seeing the charges. Looking again today most places seem to have more reasonable annual costs.

Years ago I pondered a move to Birmingham so had a look around. Some amazing places which were clearly cheaper than older blocks nearby due to the charges. Perhaps there was a period of time when people or mortgage lenders ignored this?

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HOLA4425
6 hours ago, a j said:

I can swallow £1000 a year. I like outsourcing building works! I see places advertised which are much more expensive for no obvious reason.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/140936567#/?channel=RES_BUY

£2k a year for ground rent and service charge.

Another one which would be at least £2k:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141313370#/?channel=RES_BUY

The first one is in a good location and is a relatively large building so is somewhat understandable, not that I would want to pay that much.

The second one is not in a good area so not sure what is going on there, maybe a big repair bill?

Edit - the first one is having extensive fire safety works, probably the reason for the service charge amount.

Edited by Armus
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