Bbc Coast Documentary - Peak Gas Is Here

[Wlad]

Europe is pretty much in that position too. Lignite is poor fuel - its 30% moisture content sees to that.

I can't think of anywhere that has deposits of good quality coal left bar Zimbabwe of all places.

[Kurt Barlow]

I can't think of anywhere that has deposits of good quality coal left bar Zimbabwe of all places.

North America, Russia, China, and India still have large reserves of bituminous coal

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2726/

[Kurt Barlow]

Cavity wall used to be (e.g. back in the 1970s when my parents had it done) an expensive option. But it's relatively cheap currently.

I paid British Gas £500 and got my walls and loft done - 4 bed detatched.

[huw]

The problem isn't so much unpredictability, it's the fact that since building storage to cover an effective outage of several days for turbines supplying say, 20% of our electricity is impractical. So you must keep an operationbal reserve to cover this - even if that reserve is only used 10 days a year. This causes a big hike in the costs, which is something that tends to get buried in the fine print.. and is the reason why wind tends to get limited grid penetration at best.

Or you manage demand, which is what happens when push comes to shove (it was done very crudely during the 3-day week and rolling blackouts of 1974, and can still occur purely due to pricing mechanisms). We have more sophisticated options than that today, of course -- possibilities such as smart metering and smart appliances to adjust price/consumption in line with supply, or even to throttle consumption at the meter).

It's striking that the discussion is always 'what investments will allow business-as-usual' rather than 'how do we adapt to having less energy available' (there is a subtle difference). Crucially, 'business-as-usual' has energy consumption rising remorselessly, year-on-year. Our whole economic paradigm is going to have to change.

[Kurt Barlow]

Or you manage demand, which is what happens when push comes to shove (it was done very crudely during the 3-day week and rolling blackouts of 1974, and can still occur purely due to pricing mechanisms). We have more sophisticated options than that today, of course -- possibilities such as smart metering and smart appliances to adjust price/consumption in line with supply, or even to throttle consumption at the meter).

It's striking that the discussion is always 'what investments will allow business-as-usual' rather than 'how do we adapt to having less energy available' (there is a subtle difference). Crucially, 'business-as-usual' has energy consumption rising remorselessly, year-on-year. Our whole economic paradigm is going to have to change.

The dutch are trying this by using large refrigeration plants to demand mange variations in supply. Who oh why do the Europeans seem to be able to do everything better than us. We are becoming the Albanians of Northern Europe.

Also perhaps in future our manufacturing (whats left of them) processes will need to adapt to batch rather than continous process modes.

[huw]

One possible means by which we could crack hydrogen would be via the use of space mounted solar panels. Infinite amounts of (for all practical purposes) free energy. The electricity could be laser beamed back down to the planet's surface. Huge energy losses in such a process to be sure. However, if the source is limitless, it wouldn,t matter.

Gerard K O'Neill proposed doing this with microwave transmission:

...there exists a product, badly needed, whose end-use is in high orbit: the product is satellite solar power. For several years design groups at Boeing Aircraft and at the Arthur D Little Co. have studied the concept of locating large solar power stations in geosynchronous orbit, where sunlight is available 99% of the time, to beam down microwave power to the earth for conversion to ordinary AC or DC power. Oddly enough, the microwave link problem appears solved in principle: 56% efficiency has been demonstrated, and the goal is only 63% to 70%: the stumbling block to realization has just been the lift costs.

[huw]

The dutch are trying this by using large refrigeration plants to demand mange variations in supply. Who oh why do the Europeans seem to be able to do everything better than us. We are becoming the Albanians of Northern Europe.

Short-term vs long-term, I think. You don't go to the trouble and expense of re-claiming all that land from the sea without having an eye for the future

[Kurt Barlow]

Gerard K O'Neill proposed doing this with microwave transmission:

Which at about $10,000 a kg make space solar somewhat less feasible than my earwax to biodiesel plan.

That said Im sure Cells is adament that space solar is on the edge of a breakthrough

[huw]

Which at about $10,000 a kg make space solar somewhat less feasible than my earwax to biodiesel plan.

That said Im sure Cells is adament that space solar is on the edge of a breakthrough

To be fair on O'Neill he was proposing in the 1970s that we got started on the infrastructure that would have made such things feasible. Thirty years later, you could say we've let things slide for a little too long...

[Warwick-Watcher]

Many of the world's minerals are at "peak" production in the sense that uranium or coal can peak (see earlier post). further, we should assume that the price of all mineral extraction, pre-peak, peak or post-peak will rise dramatically on the back of oil prices since their exctraction is an energy intensive process and becomes more so over time as the more easily extractable deposits are exhausted.

Basically, the world is becoming rapidly farmed out.....

Steve

Steve - I agree with you. Projections of 9 billion people on the planet by 2050 are quite scary. That means nearly 50% more oil/gas (can we increase daily production from 86 million barrels per day to 125 million?) Where do we know that another 40 million barrels per day can be found ? Nowhere.

All production from raw materials, to food (fertilisers etc.) to finished goods (including bloody wind turbines) rely on high density energy. Without that we are toast in the western world. Better get used to living life in a more primitive way in future. On the other hand more physical labour would help us to lose some of those excess kilos !

Throw another fattie on the fire - cook 'em down, have a little barbeque !

[fluffy666]

Please find the following secondary source of information relating to peak uranium. apologies for the source not being a primary one. However, the article does itself list its primary sources.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2379

I should also say that I completely agree with your assertion that hydrogen is an impractical fuel to use even assuming we find a way to crack it efficiently. This is mainly due to storage issues. Again, I didn't make that point earlier for the sake of brevity.

Steve

You posted a link which basically looked at an out of date snapshot of current mines at a very low price point..

The cost of Uranium is a very small fraction of the overall cost of nuclear power, which is why the price can go up so much without affecting the economics. This also shows that the idea of nuclear being subsidised by diesel is just plain wrong.

Peak oil (when the definition of oil is well constrained) is a fairly solid theory.

Peak gas is also reasonably solid, although more subject to politics.

Peak coal is highly uncertain; coal reserves are highly uncertain and more price sensitive.

Peak Uranium is basically an invention.

As they say, when you have a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail.

[Kurt Barlow]

Steve - I agree with you. Projections of 9 billion people on the planet by 2050 are quite scary. That means nearly 50% more oil/gas (can we increase daily production from 86 million barrels per day to 125 million?) Where do we know that another 40 million barrels per day can be found ? Nowhere.

All production from raw materials, to food (fertilisers etc.) to finished goods (including bloody wind turbines) rely on high density energy. Without that we are toast in the western world. Better get used to living life in a more primitive way in future. On the other hand more physical labour would help us to lose some of those excess kilos !

Throw another fattie on the fire - cook 'em down, have a little barbeque !

125 million BPD - no chance. Production at 85 million MPD is plateauing - perhaps declining. OPEC countries totally over estimated their reserves to get a bigger share of quotas in the mid 80's oil glut. The 125 million BPD predictations are based on that fabricated data. The wolf is now at the door.

[Wlad]

North America, Russia, China, and India still have large reserves of bituminous coal

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2726/

China's importing coal, the USA is out of good coal, and India is likely to become an importer very shortly.

[Wlad]

I paid British Gas £500 and got my walls and loft done - 4 bed detatched.

That's a baragin!

[Jay76]

I have a question for the gentlemen who believes that we can "easily" use electrical energy for our private cars.

From which planet will we obtain the resources to retrofit 800 million internal combustion vehicles to run on electricity?

[eightiesgirly]

ON the other side of the coin - how many of us used our new found wealth to invest in efficent homes / appliances?

Many individuals will blame the Govt but did have the opportunity to invest some wealth when they had it on efficiency / efficient appliances.

Cavity wall insulation v week in Ibiza!

Sadly Mr Barlow you are right, however I wonder how many people are aware that a problem is looming in the future? Certainly both the media and the government are not encouraging such investment, what little is brought forth goes under the enviroment/climate change umbrella. I suppose in the end most will end up in a power down situation including calories, that will not do much for the stock market and global growth.

I grew up in an energy poor enviroment, purely due to poverty. I know what's involved and that I am capable of making the changes neccesary, however it is not fun. It is always easier to move up in personal circumstances than down. I console myself that at least I am trying to keep informed and make changes as and when they become required. Teaching my I-pod generation teenage children is however quite a challange. I would be very, very surprised if they ever own their own home.

[Kurt Barlow]

I have a question for the gentlemen who believes that we can "easily" use electrical energy for our private cars.

From which planet will we obtain the resources to retrofit 800 million internal combustion vehicles to run on electricity?

Wood be easier to retrofit cars with wood gasification. All you need is an old water tank and ducting!

[Kurt Barlow]

Wood be easier to retrofit cars with wood gasification. All you need is an old water tank and ducting!

or

[Kurt Barlow]

China's importing coal, the USA is out of good coal, and India is likely to become an importer very shortly.

They still have large reserves of good coal - they just consume so much they need to import. That said its only really Australia thats left as a big player in the coal export trade. Who else - South Africa, Poland?

[corevalue]

I found this interesting little Gem - http://oll.libertyfund.org/index.php?optio...7&Itemid=27

Its basically the first mention of peak coal - written in 1865.

Unsurprisingly, he was intimately wrong in his assertion. Not only because coal didn't run out as he predicted, but because he was unwilling to see how technology changes energy needs.

He was arguing that coal was a requirement of industry, so industry would stop as soon as the coal ran out - however, industry no longer uses coal, it uses oil. Coal is still with us, as is industry. Unfortunately, Oil and gas is being lined up for the same treatment. Oil and gas is running out, industry is going to crash.

In a hundred years, we will be using some form of safe nuclear or fuel cell technology and industry will be doing well without oil. We will however still have plenty of oil and gas!

Jevons was wrong? Not really: he predicted in 1856 that UK coal production would peak, and run out in the 20th century. And peak it did, in 1913. He didn't forsee, of course, the displacement of coal by liquid fuels, and neither did he forsee machinery used in mining which would enable thinner seams to be worked at a much faster rate than by hand.

Currently, our R/P ratio is about 12, that is, if we carry on producing coal at this rate, UK coal will be completely exhausted in 12 years. BUT, wait, we actually produce only 20 million tonnes, compared to using 61.8 million tonnes annually (2005 figures). So, if you compare our reserves to consumption, we have less than 3 years before all UK coal is exhausted. We now produce about the same amount as we did in 1825, before the industrial revolution.

Globally, coal production is expected to peak in 2020-2030 (at least in the paper in the link below to). This looks very likely to me if we start to susbstitute coal for declining oil supplies. Have a look at the graphs, especially coal production UK on page 4.

http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Coalarticle.pdf

[Wlad]

Sadly Mr Barlow you are right, however I wonder how many people are aware that a problem is looming in the future? Certainly both the media and the government are not encouraging such investment, what little is brought forth goes under the enviroment/climate change umbrella.=

Some parts of the government (Energy Savings Trust - see recent statements by Baroness Young) seem to understand, but I agree that it isn't being promoted nearly enough.

[Wlad]

They still have large reserves of good coal - they just consume so much they need to import.

Indeed, that was my point. I was looking at tradeable coal on the market, really, and given that China is importing then its reserves are off the market. Australia, South Africa - Zimbabwe eventually in 10 years or so, perhaps.

[Wlad]

Currently, our R/P ratio is about 12, that is, if we carry on producing coal at this rate, UK coal will be completely exhausted in 12 years. BUT, wait, we actually produce only 20 million tonnes, compared to using 61.8 million tonnes annually (2005 figures). So, if you compare our reserves to consumption, we have less than 3 years before all UK coal is exhausted. We now produce about the same amount as we did in 1825, before the industrial revolution.

The UK has a large coal resource, it's just under the North Sea and it needs new technology to exploit it (gassification, basically). Plus there is coal left in the old mines from the 1980s, but it's basically impossible to get at it without also using gassification as opening up the mines for conventional mining would be too expensive.

[Its time to buy]

Bumping my own thread ---> Npower gas double digit rises hmmm!! Dont tell me I didnt warn you [all 2 days worth!] !

[Its time to buy]

Bump British gas raises prices by 15%

[goverment says inflation is circa 2%]

Edited January 20, 2008 by notanewmember