Cornish Pasty Posted February 15, 2005 Share Posted February 15, 2005 Keefter I also remember when you arrived; your partner was very keen to buy, but you were not and looke dfor supporting arguments. You were also a two income family and also well paid. Were you not looking at flats in central Manchester? If you are the anecdotal FTBs who could afford to buy, I will join you in that BUT when you look around there are so many who should be able to but CANNOT. I really dislike the dissing of burger-flippers too, most people are good at heart and should not be disregarded in this way just because of their education/ family background/ lack of opportunity/ vision. Should that deny them a home? NO. In the last crash the north west hardly boomed and hardly fell, interest rates maked the real falls anyway. This time the north west has boomed big time. The facts are simple: Without new money entering the market, it will fall. At least a 30% fall is required to make rental yields workable. House prices around the world are starting to fall. There is a glut of rented acomodation. As Dr Bubb says ' renting well is the revenge ' Find a really comfortable rented place, it takes a little research but its there. Spend your efforts enjoying life, or anything you like. Buy when you can get a place suitable for your near future needs at a price within sensible income multiples, planning for at least 50 year average interst rates. But maybe your Mrs won out in the end, and you need to justify your decision?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keefter Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Okay lets clear a couple of issues up and then we can leave it be. Firstly - I did not say this site was rubbish and not to come here, and not to listen to any of the arguments. And I didn't suggest that everyone would be easily influenced by such arguments. All I said was beware of taking some of the extreme bearish opinions too seriously and allowing it become a factor in major life decisions. Instead base your decisions on the facts and the figures. We've got people on here saying that anyone who advises someone to buy now needs their eye drilling out! - I mean come on. For those of you who have responded with such comments as "I think HPC is a really good place to read collated information on the housing market otherwise difficult to obtain" I agree with you 100% - Why are you telling me this? As above I never said anything to the contrary. This is a big part of the problem, people read a big bearish argument and go into backslapping you're part of the club frenzy - when a they see a post which is not quite so bearish and has the utter audacity to suggest that for some perhaps buying would be their best move, they go into Bear auto-pilot and start writing the usual arguments I've heard a thousand times before. Really, read the post and understand the points of it. About the most sensible reply was the guy that said the advice dispensed by such bears on this site has saved his son thousands. I do not doubt it one bit and I'm glad that HPC was here to allow that person to make that important decision with a full range of facts and not a 3 minute interview on news at ten with a member of the estate agents council. What I am saying is that it is not as black and white as saying buy, don't buy. If a newbie arrived on this site and their first post was "I'm thinking of buying a house I've saved a 5% deposit, my friend says I should wait a bit but my family say I should buy now. I can tell you now the response they would get. Don't do it!! there will be an almighty crash and you'll lose everything! - regardless of all the missing information from the guys first post like where he lives, what his budget is, and generally any of his personal circumstances. Topher mate - good to see you're not one of the deserters of HPC, you talk sense and I feel for you because of your circumstances buying really is not an option. Its unacceptable to people in your position the state of the housing market, its a disgrace that it has gotten to that stage. As I plan to get married and have children myself I find it unacceptable that I drag my family from rented property to rented property, I don't think that such a trauma could even be lessened by the help of my rugger mates LOL. I'm 27 years old and I've lived in more properties than I have had years alive, 29 is the current total so I'm no stranger to the process of moving house, and I hate it. ZZG - I expected all sorts from you!!! You disappointed me. Yes I do earn a decent amount - sort of. perhaps our joint incomes represent the average for the region but not the average for FTBs I don't know TBH. What I can tell you is that for 110k I can buy what I consider to be a very nice place. My current rent is 700 PCM the mortgage on 110k at a fixed rate of 5.24% plus insurance will amount to about the same. So I pay £8400 a year to a Mr Harris whom I have met once. so yes I could wait lets say 3 years for the crash to bottom out, during which time I have spend 25k on renting, so to make it actually worth my while to wait such a length of time I would need to be looking at one hell of a crash - and although I agree that there will be one I don't expect it to be as big as it needs to be for my decision to be justified. Of course the NE is an issue but I seriously do not believe I'll be waiting 10 years, although some of you southerners may well be. Lets not get all angry and aggressive because someone does not share your opinions. Keefter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 What I can tell you is that for 110k I can buy what I consider to be a very nice place. My current rent is 700 PCM the mortgage on 110k at a fixed rate of 5.24% plus insurance will amount to about the same. So I pay £8400 a year to a Mr Harris whom I have met once. so yes I could wait lets say 3 years for the crash to bottom out, during which time I have spend 25k on renting, so to make it actually worth my while to wait such a length of time I would need to be looking at one hell of a crash - and although I agree that there will be one I don't expect it to be as big as it needs to be for my decision to be justified. Of course the NE is an issue but I seriously do not believe I'll be waiting 10 years, although some of you southerners may well be. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Keefter - in most areas it is now far cheaper to rent than pay the IO on a mortgage. There is a house where I live for sale at £525K and yet the rent is only £1250 per month!! I don't believe that the 700pcm that you pay in rent is for a comparable property you could buy for £110K. Therefore your rent v interest on mortgage is not comparable. You claim you will waste £25K on rent but if your house prices is falling the money you spend on the interest part of the mortgage is no less wasted than money on rent. It would be the difference between the two that you could deem wasted money but don't forget to also factor in the loss of money from your depreciating house too (whatever you think that might be) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keefter Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Keefter - in most areas it is now far cheaper to rent than pay the IO on a mortgage. There is a house where I live for sale at £525K and yet the rent is only £1250 per month!!I don't believe that the 700pcm that you pay in rent is for a comparable property you could buy for £110K. Therefore your rent v interest on mortgage is not comparable. You claim you will waste £25K on rent but if your house prices is falling the money you spend on the interest part of the mortgage is no less wasted than money on rent. It would be the difference between the two that you could deem wasted money but don't forget to also factor in the loss of money from your depreciating house too (whatever you think that might be) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The property for I could buy for 110k is allot nicer, bigger, better than the flat I currently rent, its the location which ultimately makes the difference, being not quite as central. BUt the point is still that these are MY circumstances that is where i live now and that is where i want to buy. Fact is I will own that property which I do buy outright within 15 years probably. Time is also a valuable commodity. If I have to live in it for that long so be it. Not that bothered, its a nice place in a good location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 The property for I could buy for 110k is allot nicer, bigger, better than the flat I currently rent, its the location which ultimately makes the difference, being not quite as central. BUt the point is still that these are MY circumstances that is where i live now and that is where i want to buy. Fact is I will own that property which I do buy outright within 15 years probably. Time is also a valuable commodity. If I have to live in it for that long so be it. Not that bothered, its a nice place in a good location.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Doesn't sound like you've got a lot to complain about then. If you're paying £700pcm in rent and a nicer place is only £110K to buy I'd probably go for it too. This scenario just doesn't represent where I live, it's completely different. As I pointed out I can rent a £520K house for £1250 pcm, renting is cheaper than the interest on the mortgage by a big margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keefter Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 I'm saying goodbye now. I hope that any newbies who do read my thread understand the point of it and do not take to heart the comments which followed. We can all theorise on the future of the housing market - whether you buy or not your are ultimately gambling. Thanks for all amusement over the months - especially to ZZG. oh and think of me in a few months when the halifax report comes out - I'll be a statistic on it ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 I'm saying goodbye now. I hope that any newbies who do read my thread understand the point of it and do not take to heart the comments which followed. We can all theorise on the future of the housing market - whether you buy or not your are ultimately gambling. Thanks for all amusement over the months - especially to ZZG. oh and think of me in a few months when the halifax report comes out - I'll be a statistic on it ;-) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> We will..... remember kids, Car crash victims are also statistics..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impartial Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 The property for I could buy for 110k is allot nicer, bigger, better than the flat I currently rent, its the location which ultimately makes the difference, being not quite as central. BUt the point is still that these are MY circumstances that is where i live now and that is where i want to buy. Fact is I will own that property which I do buy outright within 15 years probably. Time is also a valuable commodity. If I have to live in it for that long so be it. Not that bothered, its a nice place in a good location.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Good for you - if you're prepared to leap into a falling market and hold out till it corrects from its negative equity (which could take years) and are happy to be stuck there for that long then I wish you well. Also if you beleive IR's will stay at this historically low level and your mortgage payments won't suddenly force you to take on a second job then bully for you. However - those that think past tomorrow realise that as they get older they may get hitched, have kids, want a BETTER STANDARD OF LIVING. all of this means moving to more suitable accommodation - prey tell, how would that be possible when the hosue you bought is worth 20% or so less than what you paid for and will leave you out of pocket if you sell. answer: your CHOICES in life would be very limited. CHOOSE SENSE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 I'm saying goodbye now. I hope that any newbies who do read my thread understand the point of it and do not take to heart the comments which followed. We can all theorise on the future of the housing market - whether you buy or not your are ultimately gambling. Thanks for all amusement over the months - especially to ZZG. oh and think of me in a few months when the halifax report comes out - I'll be a statistic on it ;-) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> o.k. I hope it works out o.k. just do us a favour....and BARGAIN HARD....get a good discount of asking price....go in low to start (none of this Lx3 rubbish of starting at 3% off...!), then at least your statistic may well be of the sort we like here Good luck to you! Hopefully I can get on the comp. tonight and work out that data I promised. TB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 o.k. heres the chart of UK price to income ratio plotted with the same price to income ratio for the north. this is based on HBOS data Q3 for each year. it works out the nat ave income using uk nat house price and given ratio, then that income also used on north prices. (can you believe that nat ave income is currently 28.5K !!!!! not where I live it aint!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zzg113 Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 it works out the nat ave income using uk nat house price and given ratio, then that income also used on north prices.(can you believe that nat ave income is currently 28.5K !!!!! That doesn't sound right: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0...1415869,00.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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