Prices Rose In August And September

[Realistbear]

You're wrong. RB assured me the crash would begin in Q2 '07 - which means that prices have been falling since the end of June.

According to the somewhat useless LR Index data out today 50% of the regions were negative and their reports tend to lag by a few months. Two months ago only 4 regions were negative. IF the LR data is accurate, the market must have turned by the end of the 1st Q 2007 in which case grumpyoldman gets the prize for the most accurate call.

[Levy process]

Not to worry LevyProcess, this is full of idiots who believe that house prices will come down to an acceptable level. They also think that asking for 6 or more times average earnings on a mortgage is unsustainable!!??!!!

Personally I think you have it right, the economy has never looked better. UK universities are turning out highly valuable business studies graduates and law grads in there thousands, this is all good for our economy. Also the move to a service based economy rather than smelly manufacturing is much better. In 10 years time I bet your house will be worth 20 times it's weight in gold. Mortgage approvals are going to continue to reach record numbers. Food will get cheaper, and that new oil field in the North sea is going to send fuel prices heading for the floor. Mr Darling is fully in control of the siutation and as a career politician is well equipped to make economic and tax judgements. On that matter I got my tax bill and was stunned by how low it was!!! Surely we need to pay more? That thing with the Northern Rock was caused by idiots; because there is no sub-prime in the UK unlike the U.S., Ireland, Spain, Germany etc. Banks will be able to lend larger and larger amounts to anyone so there will be no restriction on house price inflation so lucky people like you LevyProcess will be able to laugh at us after you got on the ladder at the right time. Especially now there is a mass shortage of housing, those BTLers must be laughing all the way to the bank, as they are able to charge more and more each year owing to demand. My I wish I was like you.

No house crash everyone.

Calm down.

Please don't suggest that I would be in any way smug or pleased about further rises in the value of my property. I have never, ever said I thought HPI was good, I have long agreed that it is a cause of social injustice, and I don't ever claim any skill in having bought when I did as I know how difficult a decision it is, and I had no clue as to whether it was the right thing to do at the time.

I also agree that oil reserves and foreign labour will present problems for the western world in the future. But when these negative forces impact, do you think you will find it any easier to buy a house, even if the prices have fallen by then? Will these forces of economic trouble make housing more affordable for you?

[Benedict]

I also agree that oil reserves and foreign labour will present problems for the western world in the future. But when these negative forces impact, do you think you will find it any easier to buy a house, even if the prices have fallen by then? Will these forces of economic trouble make housing more affordable for you?

Might not make it easier for him, but at least it'll make it much more unpleasant for everyone else

[HOwner]

According to the somewhat useless LR Index data out today 50% of the regions were negative and their reports tend to lag by a few months. Two months ago only 4 regions were negative. IF the LR data is accurate, the market must have turned by the end of the 1st Q 2007 in which case grumpyoldman gets the prize for the most accurate call.

Is it 2004 again?

[FernandoMorientes]

ahhhhh spun like a Nu Labour chancellor, you have a bright future ahead

Seriously though I cannot accurately predict the full impact of the credit crunch however the very words credit crunch were scoffed at by the Bulls not so long ago, you have to say a lot of the recent news (not all) was predicted on here by some of the forces of doom The credit crunch is here, of course we have not seen huge falls in house price stats yet but as the BBA thread (below) indicates if these figures reported continue we will have to turn negative sooner or later, and looking at that data I would say sooner.

Surely the Bulls only hope of a poke to the flickering flame of a once raging fire lie with IR cuts, but even then is this enough now?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=57362

Grim times for the bears when you can't even be sure that a credit crunch will crash house prices!

[Levy process]

Is it 2004 again?

It's either that, or it is two or three months before we see the tide turn again. ;-)

[FernandoMorientes]

You will need some serious rate cuts and will banks be so keen to take on credit and sub prime after the NR debacle?

Looks to me like credit will be squeezed the run away train is coming off the rails fast your best bet is to jump.

It's either that, or it is two or three months before we see the tide turn again. ;-)

[alabala]

LOL! Clutching at straws? You mean the straws that are the continuing strong rise in house prices as reported by these big lenders? I think I know who is really clutching at straws. Don't tell me: Just a few more months and we will see the turn, or this will only make the crash worse when it comes, or the statistics are lies, or all three.

WHAT ABOUT RIGHTMOVE STATISTICS FOR AUGUST?

ARE THEY LIES?

[bajista]

You're wrong. RB assured me the crash would begin in Q2 '07 - which means that prices have been falling since the end of June.

And I have it on good(?) authority that they have. That of my estate agent. In writing; that prices in the Southern red brick university town concerned have fallen by 5-10% since June.

But of course a 5-10% fall in 3 months isn't a crash, it is just a slowdown

[lufc]

Pioneer: rightmove stats are rubbish, even the bear camp acknowledge that.

Fernando: have you not read all of the previous nationwide reports that state that things will slow down?

p.s. the "credit crunch" will be over in a matter of months so you will not see a time-lagged dip in 3-6 months time.

The "credit crunch" has been cleverly swept under the carpet for the time being, but don't worry it's still there and has got to get worse ... who's gonna end up juggling those hot toxic potatoes ???

[Guest mSparks]

They sure did....

Northwood (ha6)

£225,000 (DOWN 45%) 2 bedroom house

Thatcham, 4 bedroom, detached home

RG19 (rg19)

£226,950 (DOWN 40%) 3 bedroom house

Preston, Paignton (tq3)

£249,950 (DOWN 37%) 5 bedroom house

Linlithgow (eh49)

£82,000 (DOWN 36%) 2 bedroom house

Stafford (st17)

£114,995 (DOWN 36%) 2 bedroom house

WELFORD (nn6)

£160,000 (DOWN 34%) 5 bedroom house

Holbrooks, Coventry (cv6)

£122,000 (DOWN 34%) 3 bedroom house

New Pale Farm L35 1QX (l35)

£1,000,000 (DOWN 33%) 4 bedroom detached

Parkside Road, Meanwood, Leeds (ls6)

£185,000 (DOWN 32%) 0 bedroom house

20 High Street PE13 1DE (pe13)

£85,000 (DOWN 31%) 3 bedroom terraced

[Benedict]

WHAT ABOUT RIGHTMOVE STATISTICS FOR AUGUST?

ARE THEY LIES?

Not lies, but with the dramatic mix change in property listings (40% drop in 4+ bed houses) that significantly reduced the weight towards the most expensive properties the rightmove number for august isn't a number that should necessarily be taken at face value. It's like going from a nationwide average one month to an average across everywhere excluding London the next and heralding it as a fall in prices, if you're looking at average prices then any movements are a combination of individual changes and change in mix.

Note I don't think any set of numbers should be taken at face value, whatever they show. Understanding of the methodology and of the limitations of the data sample is always valuable and data should always be interpreted as far as possible.

[Guest ceewbee]

You're wrong. RB assured me the crash would begin in Q2 '07 - which means that prices have been falling since the end of June.

From my personal experience of viewing property in the last few months, this is true - virtually every property I've seen has been a 'repossession', and is being sold by a 'corporate vendor' at a significant loss to the price it was bought for previously.

e.g. Grove Park, Zone 4 London, 2-bed semi bought in mid-2005 for £280k, recently sold (or selling imminently) for £212k.

The 'crash' is already happening in BTL. I don't know if prices will definitely crash everywhere for everyone though - just my personal experience.

[stormymonday_2011]

Pioneer: rightmove stats are rubbish, even the bear camp acknowledge that.

Fernando: have you not read all of the previous nationwide reports that state that things will slow down?

p.s. the "credit crunch" will be over in a matter of months so you will not see a time-lagged dip in 3-6 months time.

So far most consumers have not felt the credit crunch at all.

It is a different story for UK business who have seen credit lines whisked out from under them.

Therein lies the problem for the future. If firms go under so also do their employees.

[bobthe~]

So far most consumers have not felt the credit crunch at all.

It is a different story for UK business who have seen credit lines whisked out from under them.

Therein lies the problem for the future. If firms go under so also do their employees.

In addition, even if the credit crunch is over in 3 months (and who can tell whether that is true?), I don't think that Pension funds or any investors are going to be piling in to buy "commercial paper" backed by mortgages any more, and there aren't enough savers to drive the market upwards.

Once bitten and all that.

I don't know much about commercial paper, but I do know that when a bubble bursts, usually people who have lost a lot of money do not normally pile into buy more of the same, or even similar.

So with the purchasers of the debt disappearing, where is the money going to come from to purchase these houses?

I say let the bulls gloat for this month. They haven't had much to sing about recently, and everyone deserves a bit of happiness. Who knows, they could be right.