Council Of Mortgage Lenders

[the end is a bit nigher]

As every month the CML issue their figures and the odd bull or 'neither' pops it's head out of it's cage with the usual comment of 'FTBs don't seem stretched to me'

Most people's definition of FTBs is people who haven't bought before i.e. they are buying for the first time - the CML includes people who have been off the ladder e.g. STR and decided to come back, divorced and rented for a year etc. - by the nature of having owned before these people are likely to have a bigger deposit and a higher income than real FTBs - this explains why the CML's multiples are completely different to everyone elses and why they claim there are around 35% FTBs in the market rather than the average 10% from the Haliwide

the only meaningful thing you can do with the CML figures is to compare them with their own historical figures - do that and even they can't hide how overpriced houses are

edited 'cos my typing is not very good

Edited September 11, 2007 by the end is nigh

[South Lorne]

As every month the CML issue their figures and the odd bull or 'neither' pops it's head out of it's cage with the usual comment of 'FTBs don't seem stretched to me'

Most people's definition of FTBs is people who haven't bought before i.e. they are buying for the first time - the CML includes people who have been off the ladder e.g. STR and decided to come back, divorced and rented for a year etc. - by the nature of having owned before these people are likely to have a bigger deposit and a higher income than real FTBs - this explains why the CML's multiples are completely different to everyone elses and why they claim there are around 35% FTBs in the market rather than the average 10% from the Haliwide

the only meaningful thing you can do with the CML figures is to compare them with their own historical figures - do that and even they can't hide how overpriced houses are

edited 'cos my typing is not very good

....to avoid chains both ends many people sensibly sell, rent and look-around before buying....more so if the market is unsure in direction.....to count these people as 1st time buyers is grossly misleading and trashes any meaningful data and reputations of people if they collate in such a manner.......

[Confounded]

As every month the CML issue their figures and the odd bull or 'neither' pops it's head out of it's cage with the usual comment of 'FTBs don't seem stretched to me'

Most people's definition of FTBs is people who haven't bought before i.e. they are buying for the first time - the CML includes people who have been off the ladder e.g. STR and decided to come back, divorced and rented for a year etc. - by the nature of having owned before these people are likely to have a bigger deposit and a higher income than real FTBs - this explains why the CML's multiples are completely different to everyone elses and why they claim there are around 35% FTBs in the market rather than the average 10% from the Haliwide

the only meaningful thing you can do with the CML figures is to compare them with their own historical figures - do that and even they can't hide how overpriced houses are

edited 'cos my typing is not very good

Good post, in the information age with the abundance of statistics the masses take them at face value and they trust the authorities to use statistics responsibly. It is becoming increasingly clear that statistics are being abused at every level and every area of our lives. As with your example the deeper you look behind the headline figures the more a different story starts to be told, unfortunately very few have the time to do this.

The DOW management/manipulation through the use of dubious statistics is becoming clearer and clearer. When important data wass released to the DOW, earlier in the year when it had its exponential rise before the recent turmoil (was it being prepaired for somthing?), it seemed the majority of the statistic produced by the FED where meeting or exceeding the market expectation causing this exponential rise. However after the initial release of these figure they were often revised downwards, sometimes by as much as 50%. However when they were revised the market would overlook the fact that they rose 200 points in a day on the back of the earlier inflated figures. No one is truly lying the accurate information is finally made available for everyone to analyse it is just they are delivered in away that helps the market.

We are in the age of manipulation of the masses both in their personal lives and at work. The use of statistics and targets have infested every major employer. Everyone on this board must have countless examples at work where they are being driven on the face of it by a sensible target down a route that is not entirely clear that it will be beneficial for the business but you have to meet these targets.

This is World we now live in and the masses will never change, the only way to beet the crowd is to try and understand the message that is being delivered quicker then the crowd. Contrarian thought is still of value but it is diminishing in the face of the underlying message.

[Come On Down]

They changed it in April 2005. Old news. But yes, useful. The CMSL FTB stats for income can also be based on joint/sole/multiple applications.

[South Lorne]

They changed it in April 2005. Old news. But yes, useful. The CMSL FTB stats for income can also be based on joint/sole/multiple applications.

....if it's old news why have they not fixed it.....?..... :angry: :angry: :angry:

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

As every month the CML issue their figures and the odd bull or 'neither' pops it's head out of it's cage with the usual comment of 'FTBs don't seem stretched to me'

Most people's definition of FTBs is people who haven't bought before i.e. they are buying for the first time - the CML includes people who have been off the ladder e.g. STR and decided to come back, divorced and rented for a year etc. - by the nature of having owned before these people are likely to have a bigger deposit and a higher income than real FTBs - this explains why the CML's multiples are completely different to everyone elses and why they claim there are around 35% FTBs in the market rather than the average 10% from the Haliwide

the only meaningful thing you can do with the CML figures is to compare them with their own historical figures - do that and even they can't hide how overpriced houses are

edited 'cos my typing is not very good

for me personally, i put more faith in the stats for:

builders shares prices dropping

large companies selling their property & land

large companies relocating to another country

debt inquiries for the Citizens Advice Bureau

insolvencies/bankruptcy/IVA's

divorce rates

% of people living off overdraughts

& other things like this.

[South Lorne]

for me personally, i put more faith in the stats for:

builders shares prices dropping

large companies selling their property & land

large companies relocating to another country

debt inquiries for the Citizens Advice Bureau

insolvencies/bankruptcy/IVA's

divorce rates

% of people living off overdraughts

& other things like this.

.....all doom...!.....you must be happy.....

[BTB]

As every month the CML issue their figures and the odd bull or 'neither' pops it's head out of it's cage with the usual comment of 'FTBs don't seem stretched to me'

Most people's definition of FTBs is people who haven't bought before i.e. they are buying for the first time - the CML includes people who have been off the ladder e.g. STR and decided to come back, divorced and rented for a year etc. - by the nature of having owned before these people are likely to have a bigger deposit and a higher income than real FTBs - this explains why the CML's multiples are completely different to everyone elses and why they claim there are around 35% FTBs in the market rather than the average 10% from the Haliwide

the only meaningful thing you can do with the CML figures is to compare them with their own historical figures - do that and even they can't hide how overpriced houses are

edited 'cos my typing is not very good

Would I also be defined as a FTB? I own a house but have no mortgage. When I finally trade up I will require one.

[South Lorne]

Would I also be defined as a FTB? I own a house but have no mortgage. When I finally trade up I will require one.

...unless you took out a small mortgage for the bigger house even in their terms, hopefully, you would not be classed as a first time buyer...if you did take a small mortgage to supplement the purchase it would appear you would be counted as an FTB.....somebody correct me if I'm wrong......